OT: Brady Film Review 2019

Nunchucks · May 15, 2020

Satchboogie3 said:
Except its a false narrative. The best receiving options always get more targets, it has nothing to do with the QB. You want to get the ball to your best play makers.

Two quarterbacks breakdown on top receiving targets over a season.
QB A: 150, 137, 55, 52, 35, ...
QB B: 153, 95, 54, 47, 41, ...

QB B spread the ball around better than QB A, right? QB A was Mahomes MVP 2018 season and QB B Brady last season....... Kelsey and Hill were far and away the best options for Mahomes and the # of targets reflects that.
Edelman was targeted on 15.2% of his snaps, Sanu on 12.4%. Compared to Kelse targeted on 15.1% of his snaps and Hill also 15.1%. So... Where exactly is Brady 'forcing the ball'?

Exactly 0 people criticized Mahomes for not throwing enough to guys buried on the depth chart. Enough with this false narrative BS

That is because those players were open. Again, Brady was clearly forcing balls to receivers that were covered because they were his binkies. The stats don't tell you that a guy was double-covered and the QB should have moved onto the next read.

DarrylS · May 15, 2020

Despite a 24 minute video, I saw a fall off last year.. was it the receivers, blocking or #12.

Oft not mentioned were the reports that during the last half of the season he was not throwing during practices due to an elbow issue.. the question becomes is how does #12 develop confidence in these guys with no practice??

He was forcing the ball to his favorite receivers at the expense of others.... Brady has always had favorites on offense last year it was more obvious than usual.. some of his throws to Edelman or White were crappy throws. Also thought the game plans toward the end of the year pretty much sucked, was it due to trying mask Brady's issues or was it just crappy game plans??

Patsgofor4 · May 15, 2020

4th and 3 at the KC 5. Brady ignores a wide open Myers for the first down, throws it to his covered binky. GAME OVER. Somehow plays like this didn't make it into this guys analysis.

Satchboogie3 · May 15, 2020

Nunchucks said:
That is because those players were open. Again, Brady was clearly forcing balls to receivers that were covered because they were his binkies. The stats don't tell you that a guy was double-covered and the QB should have moved onto the next read.

Yet Edelman's catch % was a whopping 1% point lower than his career %, despite 13 drops. If you think Brady 'locked on to Edelman' any more than he has in previous years, you need to go back and watch film from 2013-2018...

sb1 · May 15, 2020

Patsgofor4 said:
View attachment 27341 View attachment 27340

4th and 3 at the KC 5. Brady ignores a wide open Myers for the first down, throws it to his covered binky. GAME OVER. Somehow plays like this didn't make it into this guys analysis.

Yup.

Although Harry was in bounds so it shouldn’t have mattered.

sb1 · May 15, 2020

captain stone said:
I don't believe that's what happened...at all...And certainly no Vagiants safety did his homework on anything...The Receiver just mis-read the coverage, plain & simple, and his physiological limitations prevented him from compensating for his mistake.

Id say that play was mostly on Welker as it was a catchable ball and likely a game clincher if he made it. But it was more difficult than it should have been. There was a good reason why the Giants S was moving in that direction. Bradys mistake wasn’t the throw itself - if he threw to Welker front the safety drills him or picks off the pass...it was waiting too long and then locking on to the receiver that made the throw what it was.

PatsBoy12 · May 15, 2020

Tony2046 said:
There was so much wrong with the offense last season that it would impossible for me to gauge if and how much TBs level dropped off.

Agreed! And that's all I've been saying for all this time. How can anyone accurately assess his decline with everything else that was wrong with the O? I, for one, am not saying that I don't see any signs of decline. I do. The man is 43 and defying all kinds of scientific laws for an athlete as it is. But we have people on the board using words like "steep," "noticeable," "obvious," and the like. How can you really measure it? The same people choose to ignore everything else that transpired with the targets around him. The O was highly flawed (maybe the worst ever) in so many ways, and while Brady was at times part of that, there is no way any Monday morning, armchair QB can accurately state anything at this time.

But alas, TB12 will have his chance to once again silence the critics and those stating his demise. He'll have more weapons in Tampa than he's probably ever had in his career. He'll have all the input in the offense that he desires. This means his mentality will also be different, and we won't see a resigned QB. I expect that we'll see the Tom who is fired up again (legitimately). Whether he truly still has the physical skills o is actually in a sharp decline remains to be seen.

sb1 · May 15, 2020

PatsBoy12 said:
Agreed! And that's all I've been saying for all this time. How can anyone accurately assess his decline with everything else that was wrong with the O? I, for one, am not saying that I don't see any signs of decline. I do. The man is 43 and defying all kinds of scientific laws for an athlete as it is. But we have people on the board using words like "steep," "noticeable," "obvious," and the like. How can you really measure it? The same people choose to ignore everything else that transpired with the targets around him. The O was highly flawed (maybe the worst ever) in so many ways, and while Brady was at times part of that, there is no way any Monday morning, armchair QB can accurately state anything at this time.

But alas, TB12 will have his chance to once again silence the critics and those stating his demise. He'll have more weapons in Tampa than he's probably ever had in his career. He'll have all the input in the offense that he desires. This means his mentality will also be different, and we won't see a resigned QB. I expect that we'll see the Tom who is fired up again (legitimately). Whether he truly still has the physical skills o is actually in a sharp decline remains to be seen.

Looked pretty obvious to me. 78 passer rating in the last 9 games of the year and missing throws he made in his sleep in years past. I expect he’ll play well in Tampa but I do not believe the Pats were a Super Bowl contender this year if he stayed and there is nothing that can happen in Tampa that will change that.

Uh oh I’m “hating” or “trashing” him again according to some. lmao

PatsBoy12 · May 15, 2020

sb1 said:
Looked pretty obvious to me. 78 passer rating in the last 9 games of the year and missing throws he made in his sleep in years past. I expect he’ll play well in Tampa but I do not believe the Pats were a Super Bowl contender this year if he stayed and there is nothing that can happen in Tampa that will change that.

Uh oh I’m “hating” or “trashing” him again according to some. lmao

No disrespect, but I'm not taking your response as any surefire indication he's in a sharp decline. I even admitted in my post that he is declining. What I question is how anyone can measure the extent of it given the circumstances and, I'm sorry, but passer rating means nothing to me. It's just a number and numbers seldom tell the whole story, especially in team sports.

Also, I don't know if the SB part of your statement was really directed at me or it's something you've seen mentioned elsewhere and chose to address it in your response, but I never said I thought NE would be in the SB had he stayed. In fact, I believe he has a much greater chance to reach the SB in 2020 with the Bucs for obvious reasons. NE, after the losses they've suffered in the off season, will be relying on BB's coaching and grit.

I'm under no delusions about a 43-year-old QB. The decline will happen sooner or later. That's no revelation. I guess I, for one, don't see the same steep or sharp decline that others purport; therefore I'm choosing to stay in the middle rather than swinging too far in either direction on the subject. I guess that makes me an atypical member of Patsfans.

Kasmir · May 15, 2020

Ice_Ice_Brady said:
Lol @ this thread. FBC, Upper Crust Tommy, Kasmir and SB1. All-Star Cast. I hope Andy finds you guys and argues you into the ground re: Brady.

sb1 · May 15, 2020

PatsBoy12 said:
No disrespect, but I'm not taking your response as any surefire indication he's in a sharp decline. I even admitted in my post that he is declining. What I question is how anyone can measure the extent of it given the circumstances and, I'm sorry, but passer rating means nothing to me. It's just a number and numbers seldom tell the whole story, especially in team sports.

Also, I don't know if the SB part of your statement was really directed at me or it's something you've seen mentioned elsewhere and chose to address it in your response, but I never said I thought NE would be in the SB had he stayed. In fact, I believe he has a much greater chance to reach the SB in 2020 with the Bucs for obvious reasons. NE, after the losses they've suffered in the off season, will be relying on BB's coaching and grit.

I'm under no delusions about a 43-year-old QB. The decline will happen sooner or later. That's no revelation. I guess I, for one don't see the same steep or sharp decline that other purport; therefore I'm choosing to stay in the middle rather than swinging too far in either direction on the subject. I guess that makes me an atypical member of Patsfans.

You’re right it doesn’t tell the whole story but it is evidence supporting it. Dont need a stat or number to see for myself he was missing passes he was not missing before.

Also yeah some (not you) seem to think Brady’s departure turned us from a SB contender into a lousy football team. I don’t see any reason to agree with that. If Bill left too... completely different story.

PatsBoy12 · May 15, 2020

Satchboogie3 said:
Except its a false narrative. The best receiving options always get more targets, it has nothing to do with the QB. You want to get the ball to your best play makers.

Two quarterbacks breakdown on top receiving targets over a season.
QB A: 150, 137, 55, 52, 35, ...
QB B: 153, 95, 54, 47, 41, ...

QB B spread the ball around better than QB A, right? QB A was Mahomes MVP 2018 season and QB B Brady last season....... Kelsey and Hill were far and away the best options for Mahomes and the # of targets reflects that.
Edelman was targeted on 15.2% of his snaps, Sanu on 12.4%. Compared to Kelse targeted on 15.1% of his snaps and Hill also 15.1%. So... Where exactly is Brady 'forcing the ball'?

Exactly 0 people criticized Mahomes for not throwing enough to guys buried on the depth chart. Enough with this false narrative BS

Sadly, the false narratives will continue. Stay tuned...

JarOfMayo51 · May 15, 2020

Patsgofor4 said:
Not trying to be a ****, but I couldn't listen to his lisp for more than a couple of minutes and I also have no idea what his credentials are, so I quickly asked myself if I care about what some want-to-be says about Brady. My answer was no, I do not.

Do you know who has watched the most tape on Brady and has seen him throw more passes over the past 2 years than anyone? Belichick and McDaniels. I'll ride with their opinions for now.

You discredit someone because they have a lisp? That guy is pretty knowledgeable, he has a lot of great and informative videos on all kinds of teams, players, topics, etc.

He knows his stuff, granted his is just another opinion, but he's not an idiot and is able to articulate his points very well

Nunchucks · May 15, 2020

Satchboogie3 said:
Yet Edelman's catch % was a whopping 1% point lower than his career %, despite 13 drops. If you think Brady 'locked on to Edelman' any more than he has in previous years, you need to go back and watch film from 2013-2018...

Does that count terrible throws that were counted as uncatchable?

JarOfMayo51 · May 15, 2020

sb1 said:
#StidIsMyQB

thumb_dats-my-quarterback-tettistintra-tor-net-dats-my-quarterback-thats-53761271.png

PatsWSB47 · May 15, 2020

sb1 said:
Looked pretty obvious to me. 78 passer rating in the last 9 games of the year and missing throws he made in his sleep in years past. I expect he’ll play well in Tampa but I do not believe the Pats were a Super Bowl contender this year if he stayed and there is nothing that can happen in Tampa that will change that.

Uh oh I’m “hating” or “trashing” him again according to some. lmao

Jesus sb1 why dont you just make your signature "78 percent passer rating in last 9 games?" Look it, Brady was out right frustrated and depressed during the first 8 games when his passer rating was good. Why? Why did he say he was the unhappiest 8-0 quarterback ever then? Oh, maybe there has to be some perspective included, ya think? For those of us that can see beyond cold hard stats we suspect there were a ton of reasons beyond that. You know when I look out my window it looks like the world is flat but then I think that theres other factors I should consider before coming to that conclusion.

sb1 · May 15, 2020

PatsWSB47 said:
Jesus sb1 why dont you just make your signature "78 percent passer rating in last 9 games?" Look it, Brady was out right frustrated and depressed during the first 8 games when his passer rating was good. Why? Why did he say he was the unhappiest 8-0 quarterback ever then? Oh, maybe there has to be some perspective included, ya think? For those of us that can see beyond cold hard stats we suspect there were a ton of reasons beyond that. You know when I look out my window it looks like the world is flat but then I think that theres other factors I should consider before coming to that conclusion.

Truth hurts. Scoreboard don’t lie and in the same way neither do stats like this. You want context? How about a 42 year old with that passer rating. Is it a one off and a total fluke and Brady isn’t declining at all and he will be back to his 100 passer rating self at age 43 and 44? Guess we’ll find out. I doubt it though.

That stat says all is not well with the passing offense and it starts at the QB unfortunately.

Doctor DDS · May 15, 2020

SB1 knew Brady was done in 2013 as stats don't lie and his 87 rating that year clearly showed he would never be the same again. Just seems like an odd coincidence to me that Brady was less effective when throwing to Aaron Dobson and Jacobi Meyers than he was to Gronk or Branch. With a weak OL and receivers unable to get on the same page Brady threw away more balls than at any time in his career last year. Completion % is a huge component of QB rating. I don't think anyone is arguing he had a great year but leading the team to a 12-4 record and scoring over 400 points is something the team would sign up for in 2020.

Stats lie all the time. Brady had one of his all time games against the Chiefs in the AFCCG in a cold, hostile environment. He led the team to must TD's drive after drive after drive but because they ran the ball in instead of passing his all important QB rating suffered. Who cares?

I think its naive to think Brady is a top MVP candidate at 43 but I also do not believe he fell off the cliff like others do. With a sound line and better receivers he is quite capable of leading a team to 400+ points and the playoffs.

RobertWeathers · May 15, 2020

sb1 said:
Truth hurts. Scoreboard don’t lie and in the same way neither do stats like this. You want context? How about a 42 year old with that passer rating. Is it a one off and a total fluke and Brady isn’t declining at all and he will be back to his 100 passer rating self at age 43 and 44? Guess we’ll find out. I doubt it though.

That stat says all is not well with the passing offense and it starts at the QB unfortunately.

Tom will be running Arians' offense. I'm assuming that'll take time- especially for a QB like Tom that needs to be completely comfortable and confident in his reads and receivers.

No question Tom will have more talent in TB but the key thing to watch is his workload (# of throws) and how many hits he is taking.

ViperGTS · May 15, 2020

TommyBrady12 said:
Brady's throws last year were not crisp at times and he made downright awful decisions. That could be for a number of reasons, but he was missing wide open guys and refused to throw consistently to Meyers and Harry. His biggest flaw IMO as a QB is that he zones in too much on certain guys (Edelman, Gronk, etc.). At his age he doesn't have the patience for rooks. He has performed better in the past with receivers who aren't super talented like Branch, Brown, Johnson, and Givens, so I don't think it's a great excuse to blame the receivers for his 2019 performance.

Bingo. Too many excuses for the old man. Be a rude awakening in Tampa.

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