Projected 2021 Salary Cap Decrease of $30-80 million

Tottie · May 12, 2020

XLIX said:
Wow. It usually doesn’t take this long for me to say I told you so.... we better hope @Ring 6 doesn’t see this or he’ll have a complete and total meltdown....

To be fair, even though I agree with you, a tweet doesn't mean anything...

Patsfanin Philly · May 12, 2020

Ring 6 said:
I don’t think it will lead to teams with $ cutting players because it will go right back up the next year.

Or teams will get creative and sign low first year deals with massive increases the second year, if it is allowed.... with both years guaranteed.

mgteich · May 12, 2020

Tottie said:
To be fair, even though I agree with you, a tweet doesn't mean anything...

I will state the opposite of what another has posted. There is ZERO chance that the cap will go down by 50-70 million in 2021 and then up by a similar (or even higher) amount in 2022.

There is no need for such a disruption. The league and the players' union will agree on an amendment that will spread out the decrease.

It could be as easy as

If the calculated amount of the 2021 cap is below $190M, then the 2021 cap shall be $200M, with any difference between the calculated amount and $200M being an adjustment (after all calculations) spread over 2022-2024 in equal amounts.

Clearly, the number of years can be longer or shorter, perhaps with the length depending on the amount being spread.

As folks have been saying, this amendment needs to be agreed to before the 2020 season starts so that final roster signings and cuts can be better planned. Knowing the approximate value of the 2021 cap is important to planning.

XLIX · May 12, 2020

Tottie said:
To be fair, even though I agree with you, a tweet doesn't mean anything...

While it doesn’t establish that this is definitely what the league is going to do, I think the tweet shows the idea (props to @ctpatsfan77 for being the one to originally present it in this thread) has a lot of merit. It destroys the arguments of anyone saying that this is absolutely something that owners/businessmen would never consider.

Ring 6 · May 12, 2020

Kenneth Sims said:
It’s a disaster, and one of the major reasons for the rush to open things back up too early. I talk with small business owners frequently. I’ve helped two businesses (a friend and family member) fill out their PPP applications (very simple actually for Federal paperwork and since it requires a Schedule C, 1120 or 1065 attached, it would not have been difficult at all to administer some sort of a needs test). One of those applications is still sitting on a loan officer’s desk because the credit union who my friend does business with is not SBA approved. We had to scramble to find a bank that would even take his application, but that bank is sitting on it until all their customer’s apps have been filed. I call BS on making sure “terrorists” didn’t get the money. At the very least, they should have allowed financial institutions who are legally chartered to participate and not just SBA banks. Btw, you know who got their applications in first don’t you? The ones big and wealthy enough to have lawyers and accountants at their beck and call. Anyone with a lick of sense should have foreseen that the fat hogs who already knew their way to the trough would be the first ones there when the slop was put out.

And, If speed was a priority, I would hate to see how long it would have taken to roll it out if it wasn’t. It was two weeks after Congress passed the Cares Act before the first applications were taken. The rules and application probably took a half hour to write (I’m being generous. It really is that simple of an application , but even the simplest of government forms will scare the hell out of most people). I know in Federal bureaucrat time that’s like warp speed, but for people struggling to buy groceries, medications and pay the rent or mortgage, it was too darn long.

This is not close to the reality of the situation.

Ring 6 · May 12, 2020

XLIX said:
While it doesn’t establish that this is definitely what the league is going to do, I think the tweet shows the idea (props to @ctpatsfan77 for being the one to originally present it in this thread) has a lot of merit. It destroys the arguments of anyone saying that this is absolutely something that owners/businessmen would never consider.

No a tweet saying I heard an idea has been discussed does not destroy the argument that owners losing 2.5 billion in revenue will pay 1.3 billion more than the cba calls for.

Ring 6 · May 12, 2020

mgteich said:
I will state the opposite of what another has posted. There is ZERO chance that the cap will go down by 50-70 million in 2021 and then up by a similar (or even higher) amount in 2022.

There is no need for such a disruption. The league and the players' union will agree on an amendment that will spread out the decrease.

It could be as easy as

If the calculated amount of the 2021 cap is below $190M, then the 2021 cap shall be $200M, with any difference between the calculated amount and $200M being an adjustment (after all calculations) spread over 2022-2024 in equal amounts.

Clearly, the number of years can be longer or shorter, perhaps with the length depending on the amount being spread.

As folks have been saying, this amendment needs to be agreed to before the 2020 season starts so that final roster signings and cuts can be better planned. Knowing the approximate value of the 2021 cap is important to planning.

You are overlooking the fact that for the cap to go down 50 million per team in 2021 then revenues went down by 100 million per team in 2020. Why would the owners want to pay 50 million more than the cap calls for at a time they just lost their shirts? What’s in it for them?

Ring 6 · May 12, 2020

Patsfanin Philly said:
Or teams will get creative and sign low first year deals with massive increases the second year, if it is allowed.... with both years guaranteed.

Sure. That way the cash hit to owners is spread out. The cap isn’t the issue, the cash is.

Ring 6 · May 12, 2020

XLIX said:
Wow. It usually doesn’t take this long for me to say I told you so.... we better hope @Ring 6 doesn’t see this or he’ll have a complete and total meltdown....

Show me where this says owners losing 80,000,000 in revenue will happily recalculate the cap so that they pay 50% of the revenue they didn’t get to the players over and above what they agreed to?

oh and I thought you “promised” you were done???

XLIX · May 12, 2020

mgteich said:
I will state the opposite of what another has posted. There is ZERO chance that the cap will go down by 50-70 million in 2021 and then up by a similar (or even higher) amount in 2022.

There is no need for such a disruption. The league and the players' union will agree on an amendment that will spread out the decrease.

It could be as easy as

If the calculated amount of the 2021 cap is below $190M, then the 2021 cap shall be $200M, with any difference between the calculated amount and $200M being an adjustment (after all calculations) spread over 2022-2024 in equal amounts.

Clearly, the number of years can be longer or shorter, perhaps with the length depending on the amount being spread.

As folks have been saying, this amendment needs to be agreed to before the 2020 season starts so that final roster signings and cuts can be better planned. Knowing the approximate value of the 2021 cap is important to planning.

I think the above is an excellent idea. It’s win-win for both the players and the owners.

upstater1 · May 12, 2020

I imagine this might have been said already in other threads, but at the time they let Brady go (i.e. not giving him a 2 year offer) a lot of time had passed with knowledge that Covid was going to devastate professional sports. If Kraft did his diligence and was thinking ahead about not shelling out a big signing bonus to players like Brady, especially with the possibility of a cap catastrophe, it may be that Coivd had a lot to do with Brady's departure, rather than Belichick moving on from Brady.

mgteich · May 12, 2020

upstater1 said:
I imagine this might have been said already in other threads, but at the time they let Brady go (i.e. not giving him a 2 year offer) a lot of time had passed with knowledge that Covid was going to devastate professional sports. If Kraft did his diligence and was thinking ahead about not shelling out a big signing bonus to players like Brady, especially with the possibility of a cap catastrophe, it may be that Coivd had a lot to do with Brady's departure, rather than Belichick moving on from Brady.

Personally, I think that most of us are still in the "denial" state of grief. Brady and Belichick worked very hard to develop a contract before the 2019 season. Brady insisted on a long-term (3 year) contract. The best Belichick would do was an increase for 2019 and with Brady being a free agent with no franchise tag in 2020.

At that point, there was no looking back. I believe that Brady's house was on the market the next day. Brady and belichick decided to part company after the 2019 season; it is really as simple as that.

ralmat55 · May 12, 2020

Ring 6 said:
This is not close to the reality of the situation.

How are things up in the your Ivory Tower? To me, reality is what my eyes have seen and my ears have heard. That’s my view, and I’ll stick with it. Unlike you, I have no compulsion to fight to the death to win every argument. By the way, what my eyes have seen is that you lost the argument in this thread very badly.

Ring 6 · May 12, 2020

Kenneth Sims said:
How are things up in the your Ivory Tower? To me, reality is what my eyes have seen and my ears have heard. That’s my view, and I’ll stick with it. Unlike you, I have no compulsion to fight to the death to win every argument. By the way, what my eyes have seen is that you lost the argument in this thread very badly.

Not in an ivory tower just pointing out your facts and assumptions are incorrect. If you don’t want to know facts that’s your decision, and it’s probably why you take the side that says the owners, you know the ones everybody calls greedy billionaire owners negotiated revenue sharing at 50% so when they lose 2.5 billion dollars they can increase it to 72% for no reason. Yeah real good chance that’s right.

Ps if you really wanted to have an adult discussion I could point out the assumptions you made that are wrong based upon my knowledge of the facts, but I don’t think that’s what you want.

Miguel · May 13, 2020

https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/05/13/n...er.com&utm_campaign=themmqb&utm_medium=social

Albert Breer answers my 2021 salary cap question

ctpatsfan77 · May 13, 2020

Miguel said:
https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/05/13/n...er.com&utm_campaign=themmqb&utm_medium=social

Albert Breer answers my 2021 salary cap question

Basically saying exactly what I said, except crushing the borrowing into two years, which seems unnecessarily painful.

Miguel · May 13, 2020

ctpatsfan77 said:
Basically saying exactly what I said, except crushing the borrowing into two years, which seems unnecessarily painful.

It makes sense, though, given the 3-year cash spending window (2021/2022/2023).

XLIX · Jul 21, 2020

Ring 6 said:
Do you have any concept of a business. Do you really think a company that made 8 mill in the most recent year looks back ten years and thinks it’s CURRENT financial condition is based upon 10 year averages?

Time to say I told you so....

Remember how you were all panicked about the Packers making only $8 million in profit in 2019 and I tried to explain to you the concept of an outlier? Well, here are the numbers with 2020 thrown in:

2013: $54 million
2014: $26 million
2015: $49 million
2016: $73 million
2017: $39 million
2018: $34 million
2019: $8 million <------ OUTLIER
2020: $35 million

Don't worry. I'll leave it at this post and not gloat any further. It's like shooting fish in a barrell.

Ring 6 · Jul 21, 2020

XLIX said:
Time to say I told you so....

Remember how you were all panicked about the Packers making only $8 million in profit in 2019 and I tried to explain to you the concept of an outlier? Well, here are the numbers with 2020 thrown in:

2013: $54 million
2014: $26 million
2015: $49 million
2016: $73 million
2017: $39 million
2018: $34 million
2019: $8 million <------ OUTLIER
2020: $35 million

Don't worry. I'll leave it at this post and not gloat any further. It's like shooting fish in a barrell.

8 million is a real number. It really happened. Whether it is common or not is irrelevant to the point I was making.

To illustrate my original point, here it is.

To put some actual numbers on this, the Packers are publicly owned so we can see their financials.
The last 2 fiscal years (ending March 19 and March 18) that are reported show 8 mill (2019) and 34 million (2018) of profit.
If the cap went down by 40 million that would mean revenues go down by about 80 million.

At the lower cap they would lose between 6 and 32 million based upon those years.
If they agree to keep payroll the same despite the drop in revenues they would lose between 46 and 72 million.

Ring 6 · Jul 21, 2020

XLIX said:
Time to say I told you so....

Remember how you were all panicked about the Packers making only $8 million in profit in 2019 and I tried to explain to you the concept of an outlier? Well, here are the numbers with 2020 thrown in:

2013: $54 million
2014: $26 million
2015: $49 million
2016: $73 million
2017: $39 million
2018: $34 million
2019: $8 million <------ OUTLIER
2020: $35 million

Don't worry. I'll leave it at this post and not gloat any further. It's like shooting fish in a barrell.

Also if we are doing I told you so, your argument/insultfest was that owners would be happy to absorb the whole covid hit and get it back later while I said no way nfl owners would do that and...
NFL wants to take financial hit from pandemic in 2020-21 - ProFootballTalk

They are doing just what I said they would.

Projected 2021 Salary Cap Decrease of $30-80 million

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