Setting Stidham up for Success

Mack Herron said:

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sb1 said:

I’m not diminishing his legacy. That would be stupid.

I’m saying the loss of 2019 Brady is not a big one because it isn’t,

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captain stone said:

Setting up Stid for success? Hmmm...let's see...I know, how about drafting more than TWO Wide Receivers - both of whom suck(ed) - during the past FOUR years (including this one) since damaged-goods Mal Mitchell was taken in 2016? Or how about drafting, until this year, more than TWO Tight Ends - both of whom, you guessed it, also suck(ed) - in the SIX years since the Late Prisoner was arrested?
Seems that Stid has been set-up for failure more than he's been set-up for success...

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I.M. Fletcher said:

There has been much said and lamented about where the Pats are Post-Brady and how bad the team will be this coming season, and maybe even for years to come. Some talking about Tanking for Trevor, or become try-hards that fail. I dont even necessarily mean on this board. Its almost consensus in the media that the Pats have one of the weakest rosters in the league.

I dont see it. At all.

I think four fundamental reasons why I believe BB has set young Stidham up for success. I will focus on one of those, as I think its the only one worth teasing out a bit.

1. Coaching Continuity is king.
2. Roster continuity is queen
3. returning every single starter on offense, with expected improvements from health and age from most
4. We still have one of the best defenses in the entire NFL

So, we can go back and forth on the first 3, but I think they are fairly standard assessments of our roster and other successful teams. The 4th point is seemingly being brushed aside as either something that people expect to fall apart, or that it wont be enough to prop young Stidham up.

So, I did some digging. Lets say, for argument sake, that the Pats defense can, in fact, continue playing at an upper echelon level. Lets say, for argument, they are a top 5 defense in the entire NFL. How many are squaking at that thought? I understand we lost some great pieces in Van Noy, Collins and Harmon, but with the pieces that were already on the roster, I dont think its a reach to believe that they can maintain a very strong, and possibly elite unit. Maybe not tops in the league as we were last year, but still among the best.

Why does that matter? Well, a great deal apparently.

This is a list of every QB in his 1st or 2nd season over the past 12 years that were supported by a defense that was ranked in the top 5, according to Football Outsiders.

I will list the teams rank, the qb and their invidiual record as starter of the team, as well as their completion percentage


2019:

Pittsburgh Steelers 3rd
Mason Rudolph 5-3 62%
Devlin Hodges 3-3 62%

Baltimore 4th
Lamar Jackson 13-2 66%

2018

Chicago 1st
Trubisky 11-3 59%

Buffalo 2nd
Josh Allen 5-6 52%

Baltimore 3rd
Lamar Jackson 6-1 58%

2017

Philadelphia 5th
Carson Wentz 11-2 60%

2016

Denver Broncos 1st
Trevor Siemien 8-6 59%
Paxton Lynch 1-1 59%

Philadelphia 5th
Carson Wentz 7-9 62%

2013

Seattle 1st
Russell Wilson 13-3 63%

2012

Seattle 2nd
Russell Wilson 11-5 64%

San Fran 3rd
Colin Kaepnernick 5-2 62%

2011

Jacksonville 5th
Blaine Gabbert 4-10 50%

2010

New York Jets 5th
Mark Sanchez 11-5 54%

2009

New York Jets 1st
Mark Sanchez 8-7 53%

So, you get quite a bit of information here. 1. Great defenses could help even the most helpless qbs win some games. Blaine Gabbert completed 50% of his passes and still won 4 games. Mitch Trubisky went 11-3! Trevor Siemien went 8-6 and was never heard from again.

of those 14 teams, only 3 had a losing record, and 8 made the playoffs. Of those 11 separate players, only 3 ended up as franchise QBs. So if your concern is that Stidham isnt the guy, or cant possibly have it because hes not Tom Brady, you are most likely right. But, surrounding him with a defense that will give him the best possible chance to win games will allow us to see what his ceiling truly is.

I am a Stidham believer longterm for a lot of reasons, but having Gilmore, Hightower, Jackson, Wino, Guy and Chung are why I believe Stidham wont be leading us in to the tank this year.

The only way I see the floor fall out on this team is if we run in to some terrible health luck. Its possible obviously, especially with an older group. But with the depth we have across the board, Id be surprised if it was enough to submarine the whole season.

So, if you ever find yourself thinking Stidham cant possibly get us to the playoffs and we are destined for failure, remind yourself that Rex Ryan coached a worse defensive team with Mark Sanchez at QB to the AFC championship game. Maybe that will help you cheer up.

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Boston Boxer said:

i agree 1000%. Brady is the goat and his legacy will be unmatched in my lifetime. With that said, he sucked last year and nobody wanted to point the finger at him. It was always someone else fault. Yes, our WR were absolutely feckin terrible, so they did not have the best year, but to let Brady off the hook is not right. He has no excuses with the weapons he has in Tampa

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iapatsfan said:

The biggest problem Stidham faces is that we are returning most of our players on offense. The rookies are an unknown, but the returning offensive skill players are as bad as any unit in the league. Not hyperbole.

Not quite sure where you find the "depth" on offense, unless you're just saying the backup skill players are as inept as the starters.

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I.M. Fletcher said:

We are all allowed our opinions, but I think this is far from true.

I would argue our RB depth is top 5 in the league,.

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I.M. Fletcher said:

We are all allowed our opinions, but I think this is far from true.

I would argue our RB depth is top 5 in the league, our O-line (if Thuney is kept) is easily top 10 as well.

If you want to argue that our receiver group is the worst in the league based on last year, I think it woefully underrates the injuries the team had, and the amount of mid season changeover that occcured.

Tight end was easily our worst position group on the team last year, and we will see how much improvement the rookies provide. I won’t put a value on them until we see them in our system, but it’s fairy safe to assume there will be an uptick.

The offense today is better than Brady had all last year, minus the Antonio Brown game.

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Boston Boxer said:

i agree 1000%. Brady is the goat and his legacy will be unmatched in my lifetime. With that said, he sucked last year and nobody wanted to point the finger at him. It was always someone else fault. Yes, our WR were either injured or young, so they did not have the best year, but to let Brady off the hook is not right. He has no excuses with the weapons he has in Tampa

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mgteich said:

How does this work?

Our starter is Michel. Our starting 3rd down back is White.

Our backups/depth are Bulkhead, Harris and Bolden.

I strongly disagree that anyone but White is top 10. We don't have one of the top 10 set of running backs. And we certainly, don't have one of the top ten in backups.

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Kdo5 said:

Plenty of you pointed the finger at him. In fact most of you did. What is this nonsense?

He won't need to make any excuses since he'll actually be surrounded by competency in his offense and players who belong in an NFL. He'll have a great season down in Tampa. Whereas here?

1. The running game didn't exist.
2. The receivers couldn't run the correct routes or get open.
3. The TE's didn't belong in the NFL. Worst blockers I have ever seen at the position.
4. His backup LT was the biggest sieve I've ever witnessed at the position.

How dare we not point out those glaring, crippling flaws.

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Hyped said:

I would argue that James White is the 2nd best passing down back in the league behind only McCaffery.

Michel? 2 down RB's are dime a dozen....so I'd rank Michel something like 16th in the league. Not a three down guy, but not terrible.

Burkhead is a plus with his tough inside runs off draws. A variant many teams don't have.

Harris is an unknown, but still an Alabama running back.

Bolden is a ST ace, but a decent RB himself that can start a game if needed...he killed us in Miami 2 years ago (the Gronk whiffed tackle game).

JJ Taylor looks very promising to me....

Overall, I'd take that group over many in the NFL....maybe not to 5...but certainly top 10.

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captain stone said:

Setting up Stid for success? Hmmm...let's see...I know, how about drafting more than TWO Wide Receivers - both of whom suck(ed) - during the past FOUR years (including this one) since damaged-goods Mal Mitchell was taken in 2016? Or how about drafting, until this year, more than TWO Tight Ends - both of whom, you guessed it, also suck(ed) - in the SIX years since the Late Prisoner was arrested?
Seems that Stid has been set-up for failure more than he's been set-up for success...

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I.M. Fletcher said:

...If you want to argue that our receiver group is the worst in the league based on last year, I think it woefully underrates the injuries the team had, and the amount of mid season changeover that occcured...

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