Wide Variation In Predicted Wins

goheels22002 · Apr 27, 2020

mgteich said:
We signed Vitale. Jakob is back. We don't know about Develin.
Report: Patriots sign fullback Dan Vitale

What we do know is that Belichick wants to have a FB, unlike most GM's.

Dan Vitale is a helluva good football player. He can block, was a workhorse runner at Northwestern, and he can catch passes out of the backfield or line up as an in-line TE. GB squandered his talent, which may be another thing to blame on Aaron Rodgers. Cleveland is too busy chasing shiny things to use a player like Vitale properly.

I love the Patriots backfield, especially if Damien Harris can contribute. That group can exploit whatever weakness an opponent might have.

Overall, I'm quite pleased with the way the roster is shaping up. The linebacker draftees are good players with versatile skill sets and the two 6' 230 linebackers signed as UDFAs are football players who may find a spot on special teams. It's Bentley's time to step up in a leadership role.

I'm going with what I've guessed for the past 20 years - 19-0!

DarrylS · Apr 27, 2020

I think that the 2020 offense will replicate the "dink and dunk" offense we saw in '01 when Brady first took the helm.. which may be beneficial for many of the young'uns as it is not as complicated as the ones we have seen recently..

The Pats will probably not make the AFC Championship, but this will be a competitive team that will do better than most expect..

Les archambeau · Apr 27, 2020

dustcover said:
People underestimate the potential potency of the existing receiver corps including the tight end position.

There will be some mistakes due to inexperience, but BB will have this team disciplined and as relentless as a junkyard dog.

I'm very optimistic that Stidham will spread the ball around and in doing so prove the doubters wrong. He will find the open man. I have a hunch that along with the ever reliable Edelman, Stidham will click with Myers, and UDFA Jeff Thomas is going to surprise folks as an emerging star.

Call me nuts, but 11-5 and maybe even 12-4 due to a one-game crazy bounce in our favor!

And one last observation, new uniforms, ugh!

I see 9 wins and I am an optimist. I do however agree wholeheartedly with your last observation.

Les archambeau · Apr 27, 2020

I see 9 wins max and I am an optimist. I do however totally agree with the last line of your post.

Addictive · Apr 27, 2020

Triumph said:
I heard Sanu was hurt.

Harry? I dont have any expectations for. Nothing but a disappointment.

Harry was injured for half the season and most rookie WRs struggle with Brady.

Triumph · Apr 27, 2020

Addictive said:
Harry was injured for half the season and most rookie WRs struggle with Brady.

I learned my lesson with Chad Jackson, Dobson, Mitchell. Easley and Rivers, Wynn is heading down the same road.

tasmlab · Apr 27, 2020

Doctor DDS said:
I suspect there'll be a dozen games with an uncertain outcomes at some point in the 4th quarter.

That'll make for more interesting television, for better or worse. Likely gone are the Pats/Brady prototypical game where the offense slays for the first half and gets the score to 35-3, and then it's all prevent D and conservative offense in the second half to close the game at 38-17.

Hyped · Apr 27, 2020

Maybe I am drinking the Kool Aid over here...but as soon as I am able to...I am going to take a drive to Vegas and plunk down some serious coin on over 8.5 wins. My reasoning:

- The defense might be AS good as it was last year depending on how good our rookies and 2nd year players are.

- The offensive line is still talented and we have far more competition among the backups versus last year.

- I fully expect Harry, Meyers, and Snau to be better in 2020. How much better remains to be seen...but they can't be as bad as they were last year in limited action because of experience/injuries.

- I really really like our TE group compared to last year...I even think we will keep all 4 TE's and use Keene as a hybrid RB/TE type.

- I also like Damien Harris and think he could leapfrog Burkhead this year. Either way...we have running backs to move the chains.

- Develin retiring sucks....but I liked what I saw from Johnson in limited action last year and the new porn mustache dude seems promising.

- While our schedule is brutal....we play the Ravens & Niners @ Gillette, the bad roadies are @Seattle, @Houston, @K.C. But we get to probably double dip on both L.A. games by staying out west for 2 weeks. Hopefully, the schedule makers do it that way.

- Games where I think we have a 50/50 shot or better of winning on the schedule: NYJ x2, Bills 2x, Miami x2, Denver @ home, Raiders @ home, @ Chargers, @ Rams, and Cardinals @ home. In short, 11 games where we wouldn't be big underdogs....if we can go 8-3 in those games...and 2-3 in games where we are underdogs as of today = 10-6 record.

NormZauchin · Apr 27, 2020

Doctor DDS said:
No doubt that the win range appears much higher this year than any since the dynasty began. I suspect there'll be a dozen games with an uncertain outcomes at some point in the 4th quarter. How many of those games are ultimately won will likely determine if the team has one of those sneaky good years or is a disappointment. Brady was the master at coming through in those circumstances - we'll see what Stidham is able to do. I am optimistically thinking 10-6.

I think you put your finger on it. My opinion is that Stidham will be a better than average NFL quarterback, but I have no idea how he will react under pressure and if he will be able to engineer a sizeable fraction of those fourth quarter, tight game comebacks that Brady was famous for. If he can't, then that would probably be a swing of at least three games a season from the win to loss column.

NYCPATS4LIFE · Apr 27, 2020

NormZauchin said:
I think you put your finger on it. My opinion is that Stidham will be a better than average NFL quarterback, but I have no idea how he will react under pressure and if he will be able to engineer a sizeable fraction of those fourth quarter, tight game comebacks that Brady was famous for. If he can't, then that would probably be a swing of at least three games a season from the win to loss column.

He was a 5 star recruit and others a 4 star. I wanna know how he reacts to pressure. I am not sold on stidham yet but he has arm talent.

venecol · Apr 27, 2020

mgteich said:
We signed Vitale. Jakob is back. We don't know about Develin.
Report: Patriots sign fullback Dan Vitale

What we do know is that Belichick wants to have a FB, unlike most GM's.

I see the story, but Vitale doesn't show up on the transactions, roster, or depth chart at patriots.com
That's strange. I know they signed a contract.

Deus Irae · Apr 27, 2020

Addictive said:
Harry was injured for half the season and most rookie WRs struggle with Brady.

mgteich · Apr 27, 2020

Hyped said:
Maybe I am drinking the Kool Aid over here...but as soon as I am able to...I am going to take a drive to Vegas and plunk down some serious coin on over 8.5 wins. My reasoning:

- The defense might be AS good as it was last year depending on how good our rookies and 2nd year players are.

- The offensive line is still talented and we have far more competition among the backups versus last year.

- I fully expect Harry, Meyers, and Snau to be better in 2020. How much better remains to be seen...but they can't be as bad as they were last year in limited action because of experience/injuries.

- I really really like our TE group compared to last year...I even think we will keep all 4 TE's and use Keene as a hybrid RB/TE type.

- I also like Damien Harris and think he could leapfrog Burkhead this year. Either way...we have running backs to move the chains.

- Develin retiring sucks....but I liked what I saw from Johnson in limited action last year and the new porn mustache dude seems promising.

- While our schedule is brutal....we play the Ravens & Niners @ Gillette, the bad roadies are @Seattle, @Houston, @K.C. But we get to probably double dip on both L.A. games by staying out west for 2 weeks. Hopefully, the schedule makers do it that way.

- Games where I think we have a 50/50 shot or better of winning on the schedule: NYJ x2, Bills 2x, Miami x2, Denver @ home, Raiders @ home, @ Chargers, @ Rams, and Cardinals @ home. In short, 11 games where we wouldn't be big underdogs....if we can go 8-3 in those games...and 2-3 in games where we are underdogs as of today = 10-6 record.

Yes, we would be over 8.5 if we had an average quarterback.

BTW, I think that you forgot about Vitale at FB.
Report: Patriots sign fullback Dan Vitale

Hyped · Apr 27, 2020

mgteich said:
Yes, we would be over 8.5 if we had an average quarterback.

BTW, I think that you forgot about Vitale at FB.
Report: Patriots sign fullback Dan Vitale

Just forgot his name, but remembered the porn mustache

.

And I *think* Stidham is above average.....although that might be wishful thinking supported by some good Athletic articles by Jeff Howe....

Redman443 · Apr 27, 2020

Some seem to think we're tanking
What Exactly Are the Patriots Doing?

mgteich · Apr 27, 2020

Hyped said:
Just forgot his name, but remembered the porn mustache .

And I *think* Stidham is above average.....although that might be wishful thinking supported by some good Athletic articles by Jeff Howe....

one can only hope

sb1 · Apr 27, 2020

Redman443 said:
Some seem to think we're tanking
What Exactly Are the Patriots Doing?

They’re not tanking.

supafly · Apr 28, 2020

sb1 said:
They’re not tanking.

Yeah, no way that they tank or refuse to play competitively. That said, we could easily go 3-3 or worse in the division (BUFx2, at Miami) and then have teams like SEA, SF, KC, BAL that we’ll have to deal with.

The games that were once believed to be “gimmes” like the Chargers, Rams, Cards, Broncos, Texans, and Raiders will now likely be .500 games. It would be impressive for them to win 5/8.

Once again, we’re back to 8-8 or so. It’s almost as if Vegas knows something about the odds of our win totals.

letekro · Apr 28, 2020

I’m hopeful that the receivers can benefit this year from running actual routes that don’t require them to think about 14 different options that only work when they see the field the same way as a 20 year veteran QB does

Deus Irae · Apr 28, 2020

supafly said:
Yeah, no way that they tank or refuse to play competitively. That said, we could easily go 3-3 or worse in the division (BUFx2, at Miami) and then have teams like SEA, SF, KC, BAL that we’ll have to deal with.

The games that were once believed to be “gimmes” like the Chargers, Rams, Cards, Broncos, Texans, and Raiders will now likely be .500 games. It would be impressive for them to win 5/8.

Once again, we’re back to 8-8 or so. It’s almost as if Vegas knows something about the odds of our win totals.

Last season, only 3 teams had fewer than 5 wins.
This upcoming draft is likely to feature 2 QBs that people will be aiming for.
So a 5 win season is likely to put teams in position to be able to trade up to get a top 1-2 pick. It's very pricey, but it can be done.
Because of the glut of QBs, many of them young and still in the honeymoon stage, one or both of the QBs could well be available via trade.

Wide Variation In Predicted Wins

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