Wide Variation In Predicted Wins

sean10mm said:

It all hinges on the QB position. Not becaue 2019 Brady was incredible (at least not for Brady), but because the floor for NFL QB busts is so far below THAT.

I don't expect him to be that bad, but if Stidham looks like noted practice superstar Nathan Peterman (for instance) then the team's floor is like 4-12. If he's a league average guy with good ball security then anything up to double digit wins suddenly becomes feasible. If the offensive skill positions turn around compared to 2019 then it pushes things even further.

The gap between "average" and "bust" at QB is really just gigantic. An average guy in a good position (or a good guy in a bad position) can still put up 4,000+ yards now. That used to be All-Pro/MVP tier.

Click to expand...

I don't think Stidham would make the squad if he was like Peterman.

I remember Tebow was pretty good in camp and in the final preseason game and he was shown the door anyway.

sb1 said:

I don't think Stidham would make the squad if he was like Peterman.

I remember Tebow was pretty good in camp and in the final preseason game and he was shown the door anyway.

Click to expand...

Peterman kept getting chances because he was by all accounts great in practice.

mgteich said:

We signed Vitale. Jakob is back. We don't know about Develin.
Report: Patriots sign fullback Dan Vitale

What we do know is that Belichick wants to have a FB, unlike most GM's.

Click to expand...

Vitale doesn't show up on their depth chart, so thanks for link.

I think if the season goes ahead in full (and I think this is unlikely) then the Patriots should consider .500 a good season and one to build on. It's a tough schedule with a lot of travel. A new QB and the roster has lost some key players.

I imagine the Pats will finish second or third in the AFC east. The Jets will be last and it will be either the Patriots or Miami in second with the Bills winning the division if there is a full season.

As others say Belichick is incapable of tanking, it possible to pick around number 10 in the draft in 2021. I doubt very much they can draft one or two unless the NFL has some form of lottery if the season is incomplete.

2021 draft more speed and athleticism and sign veterans with our huge cap space. We can compete for championships in 2021, 2022 and beyond.

8 - 10 wins would be a great season.

Chiefs are on the road.
Ravens seemingly had an outstanding draft.
Seahawks are a tough out.
49ers should be good though they lost quite a few players.
Texans need a lot of things to go right.
Bills are no slouch.

4 - 6 losses right there.

mgteich said:

========
I agree.

And yes, an average quarterback or a bit worse can put up 4000 yards. I guess I'll ask. Do we think Stidham can put up 4000 yards in our passing offense with an average running game?

Click to expand...

He will not make it through the year as the starter throwing to the WR group as it currently exists. That is not an evaluation of his ability. We haven't seen enough of him. We have seen enough of the WRs to know, outside of a 34 year old Edelman, none of them can get open. That is not going to bode well for his completion percentage (see Brady last year), and that will have the Boston sports media tearing him apart by week 8.

Belichick will know what life’s like without brady. I expect a 7-9 or 6-10 season. Schedule’s tough and i expect some growing pains with the QB.

iapatsfan said:

He will not make it through the year as the starter throwing to the WR group as it currently exists. That is not an evaluation of his ability. We haven't seen enough of him. We have seen enough of the WRs to know, outside of a 34 year old Edelman, none of them can get open. That is not going to bode well for his completion percentage (see Brady last year), and that will have the Boston sports media tearing him apart by week 8.

Click to expand...

I dislike whats been going on at WR for years, but I could not carry your lunch box in terms of protest.

You have to figure that the Pats will add WRs who are roster causalities. Theres bound to be some pretty good WRs available that a team just figures its time to move on. The Pats have been lucky 2 seasons in succession finding a WR who cant stay with his present team. Josh Gordon in 2018 and AB in 2019. Gotta figure some WR out there wants out of the current situation.

I aint worried.

Addictive said:

I think if the season goes ahead in full (and I think this is unlikely) then the Patriots should consider .500 a good season and one to build on. It's a tough schedule with a lot of travel. A new QB and the roster has lost some key players.

I imagine the Pats will finish second or third in the AFC east. The Jets will be last and it will be either the Patriots or Miami in second with the Bills winning the division if there is a full season.

As others say Belichick is incapable of tanking, it possible to pick around number 10 in the draft in 2021. I doubt very much they can draft one or two unless the NFL has some form of lottery if the season is incomplete.

2021 draft more speed and athleticism and sign veterans with our huge cap space. We can compete for championships in 2021, 2022 and beyond.

Click to expand...

if I were to bet, 5-7 wins is what I would bet.......don't be surprised to see them go 0-4 or 0-5 to start and then .500 from there....I'm thinking something between the 1993 and 2000 seasons

Triumph said:

I dislike whats been going on at WR for years, but I could not carry your lunch box in terms of protest.

You have to figure that the Pats will add WRs who are roster causalities. Theres bound to be some pretty good WRs available that a team just figures its time to move on. The Pats have been lucky 2 seasons in succession finding a WR who cant stay with his present team. Josh Gordon in 2018 and AB in 2019. Gotta figure some WR out there wants out of the current situation.

I aint worried.

Click to expand...

If you watched the WRs through the 2nd half of last season, you should be worried. Maybe the Byrd guy does something, or maybe one of the undrafted guys is a steal, but if Sanu and Harry are primary options we're in trouble.

iapatsfan said:

If you watched the WRs through the 2nd half of last season, you should be worried. Maybe the Byrd guy does something, or maybe one of the undrafted guys is a steal, but if Sanu and Harry are primary options we're in trouble.

Click to expand...

I heard Sanu was hurt.

Harry? I dont have any expectations for. Nothing but a disappointment.

with so many unknowns league-wide, for obvious reasons, in terms of how teams will prep for the season, i'd throw most predictions out the window

the established teams that didn't have a lot of turnover, especially the ones with more or less intact offenses, will still do well

the teams with new QBs, lots of new personnel, relying on youth, new coaches - those are going to be major crapshoots, and works in progress.....the teams you see in september won't be the teams you see in december

that being said, a team like NE with BB are at an advantage over others just in that he prepares better than most.......

this is also why i suspect you'll see Hoyer early on, unless Stidham just lights it up.......you're going to need to eliminate/lessen the variables as much as possible early on

5-11.

Bill’s poor drafting will be exposed.

Triumph said:

I heard Sanu was hurt.

Harry? I dont have any expectations for. Nothing but a disappointment.

Click to expand...

Sanu was slow when he was 24. He is now over 30.

Harry is an NFL bum.

luuked said:

I think some of this has to do with how much fans and media overvalue certain positions on offense in terms of wins. The people in the desert essentially said Brady leaving is most probably worth around 2 games while some hysterics around here talk about 4-5 win seasons.

If anyone truly believes that they should put all their savings on the unders.. it is free money right ?

Finally, until the games actually start you never know what teams will actually be good. The Browns last year being another prime example of hype. On paper they were loaded..

Click to expand...

It's April, in a very unconventional year. And no team is going through the level of upheaval that this one is.


Tell you what: why don't you go bet your house on this team winning 11+ games?

venecol said:

Vitale doesn't show up on their depth chart, so thanks for link.

Click to expand...

2020 New England Patriots Depth Chart | Ourlads.com

I find this site pretty good for a depth chart. Sometimes it moves guys around (ex. FBs put at RB or TE in the Pats case) to disperse it more evenly, but overall does a good job accounting for all the players on the team.

Don't expect much help from Belichick at wide receiver. He seems to be pleased as
punch with his wide receivers. Harry looked lost out there last year. He also got
pushed around. Sanu caught 10 passes and then disappeared due to his ankle sprain.
They paid thru the nose to get him and then were stupid to use him on punt returns.
Edelman played despite multiple injuries. We have to hope he can bounce back.
Jacobi Meyers should improve with a years experience. Dorsett seemed to regress
and has headed for greener pastures. Unlike the Eagles who had problems at
wide receiver last year, there are no big name additions. Mostly flotsam from
other teams and undersided, unknown rookies.

Maybe I'm just a Belichick fanboy but I have a hard time seeing a Belichick coached team having a losing record this year. Clearly it's not the most talented team in the league, but I still see 9 wins.

This team has a good defence even with the losses. Might be the number one secondary in the league with a serviceable front 7. If Winovich comes on a little and Uche can contribute, it could still be a very good D.

The offense has a good offensive line and a nice array of running backs. Clearly it's not an explosive offense but I do think Stidham will prove to be a competent quarterback and improve as the season goes on. I could see the offense taking some lumps in September and then looking good by November/December as Stidham finds his feet.

I'll stick with 9-7 right now.

zimmy said:

Maybe I'm just a Belichick fanboy but I have a hard time seeing a Belichick coached team having a losing record this year. Clearly it's not the most talented team in the league, but I still see 9 wins.

This team has a good defence even with the losses. Might be the number one secondary in the league with a serviceable front 7. If Winovich comes on a little and Uche can contribute, it could still be a very good D.

The offense has a good offensive line and a nice array of running backs. Clearly it's not an explosive offense but I do think Stidham will prove to be a competent quarterback and improve as the season goes on. I could see the offense taking some lumps in September and then looking good by November/December as Stidham finds his feet.

I'll stick with 9-7 right now.

Click to expand...

I dunno about any of it. Belichick is suddenly gonna be exposed as a fraud? Umm no. I am clearly in the Belichick fanboy club, I expect the defense to be good, possibly very good. I am more concerned about the loss of Scar to this 2020 team than I am anything else. Everything starts up front. Let's assume for a moment that Stid is a fine replacement. If the line play sucks, the loss of Brady will be magnified greatly. Poor line play will expose our young QB to more mistakes. 9-7 seems fair, but Belichick took the 2008 team to 11-5 with Matt Cassel. That 2008 D was good but aging rapidly. This one is too. There's still a chit ton of guys on this team that know what it takes to win. 10-6 ? 11-5? I dunno. Maybe. There's a lot of ifs.

How's that for vague

I thin 10-6 would be a successful first post-Brady season. To me the biggest question mark isn't so much Stidham on his own, but rather he and his WRs. If he has as little chemistry with them as Brady (and the TE group is just as garbage) then we're probably a 5-7 win team. But if he has the kinda chemistry he showed in the preseason with some of the younger guys and the TE group improves I think we have a real chance at 9-11 wins