Wide Variation In Predicted Wins

mgteich · Apr 27, 2020

I've never seen a team with such a variation in their predicted wins.

Strangely, I personally think that anywhere between 6 and 11 wins are possible depending on health and acquisitions still to come, especially at QB and WR. If we don't get significant acquisitions at either position, I do see us winning 6 games.

How is 11-5 possible?
-----------------------
Top 10 OL
average RB/FB's (perhaps 15th)
below average WR's and TE's
average QB
Top 5 defense
Top 5 ST's

IMO, this take a significant addition at QB and at WR.

long distance · Apr 27, 2020

mgteich said:
How is 11-5 possible?

Players play, coaches coach.

And posters post .. whatever..

supafly · Apr 27, 2020

mgteich said:
How is 11-5 possible?

With the schedule that they’re facing, 11-5 may not have been possible even with Brady under center.

I see their record anywhere between 5-11 and 9-7.

moosekill · Apr 27, 2020

Every year we look at their schedule and are scared to death before the season starts. Then midway through the season they end up with an easy schedule.

Nunchucks · Apr 27, 2020

Patriots had a top 10 OL last year and they played terrible. You never really know what you got until the games start.

luuked · Apr 27, 2020

mgteich said:
I've never seen a team with such a variation in their predicted wins.

Strangely, I personally think that anywhere between 6 and 11 wins are possible depending on health and acquisitions still to come, especially at QB and WR. If we don't get significant acquisitions at either position, I do see us winning 6 games.

How is 11-5 possible?
-----------------------
Top 10 OL
average RB/FB's (perhaps 15th)
below average WR's and TE's
average QB
Top 5 defense
Top 5 ST's

IMO, this take a significant addition at QB and at WR.

I think some of this has to do with how much fans and media overvalue certain positions on offense in terms of wins. The people in the desert essentially said Brady leaving is most probably worth around 2 games while some hysterics around here talk about 4-5 win seasons.

If anyone truly believes that they should put all their savings on the unders.. it is free money right ?

Finally, until the games actually start you never know what teams will actually be good. The Browns last year being another prime example of hype. On paper they were loaded..

venecol · Apr 27, 2020

Nunchucks said:
Patriots had a top 10 OL last year and they played terrible. You never really know what you got until the games start.

Don't think we should underestimate loss of Scar.
Where are the FBs?

Doctor DDS · Apr 27, 2020

No doubt that the win range appears much higher this year than any since the dynasty began. I suspect there'll be a dozen games with an uncertain outcomes at some point in the 4th quarter. How many of those games are ultimately won will likely determine if the team has one of those sneaky good years or is a disappointment. Brady was the master at coming through in those circumstances - we'll see what Stidham is able to do. I am optimistically thinking 10-6.

BTTA · Apr 27, 2020

mgteich said:
I've never seen a team with such a variation in their predicted wins.

Strangely, I personally think that anywhere between 6 and 11 wins are possible depending on health and acquisitions still to come, especially at QB and WR. If we don't get significant acquisitions at either position, I do see us winning 6 games.

How is 11-5 possible?
-----------------------
Top 10 OL
average RB/FB's (perhaps 15th)
below average WR's and TE's
average QB
Top 5 defense
Top 5 ST's

IMO, this take a significant addition at QB and at WR.

Three unknown variables:

1. If this hinges on acquiring and playing a different QB than Stidham, then it is 5 wins. I don't think there's anyone to be had, and even more importantly if Stidham is mediocre enough to warrant replacement then the post-Brady process is of an entirely different color.

2. There's an unusual dependency on last year's injured players coming back to play significant roles.

3. Injuries, which are always there every year.

On the other hand, 5 wins could lead the League, depending on the length of the season.

mgteich · Apr 27, 2020

venecol said:
Don't think we should underestimate loss of Scar.
Where are the FBs?

???

We have THREE fullbacks.

Tony2046 · Apr 27, 2020

Doctor DDS said:
No doubt that the win range appears much higher this year than any since the dynasty began. I suspect there'll be a dozen games with an uncertain outcomes at some point in the 4th quarter. How many of those games are ultimately won will likely determine if the team has one of those sneaky good years or is a disappointment. Brady was the master at coming through in those circumstances - we'll see what Stidham is able to do. I am optimistically thinking 10-6.

That's about where I'm at.

It's funny but this team may look more like the 1977 Patriots than the 2017 Pat's.

Is Stidham = Grogan?

Slight tongue in cheek there.

farn · Apr 27, 2020

Don’t believe in APRIL strength of schedule. Teams fluctuate so much from year to year.

I do agree with posters suggesting 11-5 with Brady might have been a daunting task. Therefore there is no reason to predict that from Stidham/Hoyer.

I think 4-12 to 9-7 is the range. I predict 7-9.

sb1 · Apr 27, 2020

I think 9-7 is reasonable knowing what we know.

5 wins only happens if the team suffers catastrophic injuries like to Gilmore or the OL again.

DarrylS · Apr 27, 2020

My usual prediction is between 11 & 13 wins..

This year will go down a bit between 8 & 11 wins.. Playoffs?? Too many variables to predict.

The variable oft not factored is BB and his experienced staff.. on thing the Pats have enjoyed is consistency in excellent coaching.. this year they even have more to prove...

sean10mm · Apr 27, 2020

It all hinges on the QB position. Not becaue 2019 Brady was incredible (at least not for Brady), but because the floor for NFL QB busts is so far below THAT.

I don't expect him to be that bad, but if Stidham looks like noted practice superstar Nathan Peterman (for instance) then the team's floor is like 4-12. If he's a league average guy with good ball security then anything up to double digit wins suddenly becomes feasible. If the offensive skill positions turn around compared to 2019 then it pushes things even further.

The gap between "average" and "bust" at QB is really just gigantic. An average guy in a good position (or a good guy in a bad position) can still put up 4,000+ yards now. That used to be All-Pro/MVP tier.

mgteich · Apr 27, 2020

sean10mm said:
It all hinges on the QB position. Not becaue 2019 Brady was incredible (at least not for Brady), but because the floor for NFL QB busts is so far below THAT.

I don't expect him to be that bad, but if Stidham looks like noted practice superstar Nathan Peterman (for instance) then the team's floor is like 4-12. If he's a league average guy with good ball security then anything up to double digit wins suddenly becomes feasible. If the offensive skill positions turn around compared to 2019 then it pushes things even further.

The gap between "average" and "bust" at QB is really just gigantic. An average guy in a good position (or a good guy in a bad position) can still put up 4,000+ yards now. That used to be All-Pro/MVP tier.

========
I agree.

And yes, an average quarterback or a bit worse can put up 4000 yards. I guess I'll ask. Do we think Stidham can put up 4000 yards in our passing offense with an average running game?

venecol · Apr 27, 2020

mgteich said:
???

We have THREE fullbacks.

Really? We were using a LB as FB last year and now he's gone. Haven't heard that Devlin is good to go and coming back. Not sure what the deal w/ Jacobson was as an Int. player. Is he back? Don't know who the 3rd is.

dustcover · Apr 27, 2020

People underestimate the potential potency of the existing receiver corps including the tight end position.

There will be some mistakes due to inexperience, but BB will have this team disciplined and as relentless as a junkyard dog.

I'm very optimistic that Stidham will spread the ball around and in doing so prove the doubters wrong. He will find the open man. I have a hunch that along with the ever reliable Edelman, Stidham will click with Myers, and UDFA Jeff Thomas is going to surprise folks as an emerging star.

Call me nuts, but 11-5 and maybe even 12-4 due to a one-game crazy bounce in our favor!

And one last observation, new uniforms, ugh!

mgteich · Apr 27, 2020

venecol said:
Really? We were using a LB as FB last year and now he's gone. Haven't heard that Devlin is good to go and coming back. Not sure what the deal w/ Jacobson was as an Int. player. Is he back? Don't know who the 3rd is.

Jakob is back. Belichick signed Vitale.

mgteich · Apr 27, 2020

venecol said:
Really? We were using a LB as FB last year and now he's gone. Haven't heard that Devlin is good to go and coming back. Not sure what the deal w/ Jacobson was as an Int. player. Is he back? Don't know who the 3rd is.

We signed Vitale. Jakob is back. We don't know about Develin.
Report: Patriots sign fullback Dan Vitale

What we do know is that Belichick wants to have a FB, unlike most GM's.

Wide Variation In Predicted Wins

PatsFans.com Veteran

Pro Bowl Player

Eff you, Shula

In the Starting Line-Up

PatsFans.com Supporter

Hall of Fame Poster

PatsFans.com Supporter

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

He/Him

PatsFans.com Veteran

PatsFans.com Supporter

Pro Bowl Player

PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club

PatsFans.com Supporter

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

PatsFans.com Veteran

PatsFans.com Supporter

Practice Squad Player

PatsFans.com Veteran

PatsFans.com Veteran

Similar threads