DRAFT Official Draft Day LIVE Discussion Thread - Night 2

BUSTAMOVE said:

When the trade went through I read it was believed to be the Jets pick from the Thomas trade. I forgot all about that trade compensation so I know I read it somewhere. Saying that it could have been speculation. The Jets picked 11th this year. My estimate was for the 2021 pick being in the 14th spot and mid round. It was the only even number in that area of the 6th round. So on my estimate the value can swing 5 or so points one way or the other. That is why I used middle of the round

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We made a lot of moves which made it hard in real time to sense whether overall we'd improved or weakened our assets. But we didn't have that strong of a hand to start if our goal was to land 5 eventual starters, including 2 in the top 60.

We moved down 14 spots from 23 to 37 to get things started, so a fair question is did we lose much with that move? Which I'd say No cause we got a promising safety + a high 3rd that was essential to the next move.

Then we moved up 11 spots into the 2nd, 9 spots within the 3rd, and 30 spots into the 3rd. Those are big jumps. To do all that for the net capital it cost us, while filling specific holes in the roster which we often don't see from the Pats, was pretty remarkable. Cesario & BB know the ropes for sure.

We could get two players likely to make the team: a backup center and a kicker.

goheels22002 said:

Yes. Marqis Lee is a very interesting acquisition to go with the current crop of receivers. Low risk, high upside if he can stay healthy. I like the two TE picks a lot as well.

Edelman, Harry, Meyers, Sanu, Gunner, Lee, Asiasi and Dalton "Rambo" Keene is looking good to me. More to come in the draft, free agency and UFA I imagine.

The backfield has a bunch of pass catchers as well.

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Marqise
Marqise
Marqise
Marqise

Now don’t make me come back and copy and paste

manxman2601 said:

I saw mental decline. And, if wasn’t vintage Brady, then it was less than vintage Brady which is just a different way of saying declined Brady.

I’d love for you to be right, I’d love Brady to go as far as possible in TB. I just don’t think it’s a given.

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What do you mean by mental decline? Does he have dementia or something? I’m sorry but this just sounds like something people say with a lack of explanation since there wasn’t a physical decline.

Ring 6 said:

Over the final 8 games last year brady completed 55% of his passes for less than 6 yards an attempt and a QB rating under 80.

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You didn’t bother reading the post. I never claimed he had some great season. I am asking for evidence of a physical decline related to age. No one provided any, now they are saying he has mentally declined...whatever that means.

Kdo5 said:

So you’ve seen no evidence of a decline in his actual physical ability. Gotcha.

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I saw a QB who's throws were late many times.
His stats were down for the 3rd straight year.

Tom Brady Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

There were plenty of bad decisions by him. Ignoring players like WHITE who were wide open. Chatham pointed this out on a regular basis..

Kdo5 said:

You didn’t bother reading the post. I never claimed he had some great season. I am asking for evidence of a physical decline related to age. No one provided any, now they are saying he has mentally declined...whatever that means.

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Well I would think that the manifestation of physical decline in an athlete would be his performance wouldn’t you?
There is also the fact that he missed an enormous amount of practice time.
There are also the reports of tennis elbow.
Play ostrich if you want but 43 year old athletes are in a stage of physical decline and that’s just a fact.

DaBruinz said:

I saw a QB who's throws were late many times.
His stats were down for the 3rd straight year.

Tom Brady Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

There were plenty of bad decisions by him. Ignoring players like WHITE who were wide open. Chatham pointed this out on a regular basis..

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There is also no doubt that brady was significantly more willing to give up on a play to avoid a hit than he used to be. Now that’s smart, because him being injured doesn’t help anyone, but it’s an obvious case of physical decline in that he, himself, knows his body cannot take hits like it used to.

Ring 6 said:

Well I would think that the manifestation of physical decline in an athlete would be his performance wouldn’t you?
There is also the fact that he missed an enormous amount of practice time.
There are also the reports of tennis elbow.
Play ostrich if you want but 43 year old athletes are in a stage of physical decline and that’s just a fact.

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Again. I’ve made these arguments before. Obviously no one is physically better at age 43 than age 41. But was it physical deteriorating that led to a mediocre season? No and you are providing nothing to prove that point either.

It’s Blankenship day.

manxman2601 said:

I saw mental decline. And, if wasn’t vintage Brady, then it was less than vintage Brady which is just a different way of saying declined Brady.

I’d love for you to be right, I’d love Brady to go as far as possible in TB. I just don’t think it’s a given.

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passer rating under pressure

2019 51.8 (34th out of 38)
2018 71.2 (21st)
2017 96.6 (1st)
2016 84.9 (5th)

completion % under pressure

2019 36.0 (36th)
2018 45.3 (30th)
2017 55.5 (3rd)
2016 47.2 (24th)

DaBruinz said:

Umm.. We weren't talking about Trade Value. He was comparing the talents of the two sets of TEs..

Keene is slightly taller and slightly faster than Asiasi. Compared Gronk being 6'6 264 to the other's 6'2- 245

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Umm...I don't know what you were talking about. I was answering part of a specific question:

patsrj said:

I have the impression that we overpayed for the trades.. Would like to see the value of the picks.. Anyone has it?

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50-yard-line said:

Umm...I don't know what you were talking about. I was answering part of a specific question:

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Except that you didn't.. Here is the post.

DRAFT DAY DISCUSSION - Official Draft Day LIVE Discussion Thread - Night 2

You quoted ME.. Not Patjr. Which is why I responded to you..

Ring 6 said:

If he plays like he did in the first half of the season they will. If he plays lie he did in the second half of the season they won’t.
The $25,000,000 question is whether it was age or injury.

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t was attitude. It went off the cliff when AB got canned. Brady was emotionally done with the year, and it showed in every game.

DaBruinz said:

Except that you didn't.. Here is the post.

DRAFT DAY DISCUSSION - Official Draft Day LIVE Discussion Thread - Night 2

You quoted ME.. Not Patjr. Which is why I responded to you..

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Okay, this is just weird. When I went back, five minutes ago, to find my quote, I quoted the post to which I was responding - as in, I found MY quote and copied the one I answered. I have no idea how that happened.

Sfpat said:

They should, based on everything they've done. But that's why they play the games

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Absolutely. Injuries, trades, etc... can all have a major impact.

Kdo5 said:

What do you mean by mental decline? Does he have dementia or something? I’m sorry but this just sounds like something people say with a lack of explanation since there wasn’t a physical decline.

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Mental decline = decline in processing time. This has been documented in the general population - a 25 year old (when paying attention) will hit his car brakes a split second quicker than a 45 year old in a similar situation. Brady certainly knows all the answers to the test still, but if it takes him longer to reach the answer and he has the same amount of time as before (or even less due to teammate circumstances), he won’t make the right decision in time sometimes.

I’m not necessarily saying I buy it, but that’s what they’re referring to. It could be true, or maybe not; unfortunately I’m not good enough at this type of scouting to tell.

patsinthesnow said:

passer rating under pressure

2019 51.8 (34th out of 38)
2018 71.2 (21st)
2017 96.6 (1st)
2016 84.9 (5th)

completion % under pressure

2019 36.0 (36th)
2018 45.3 (30th)
2017 55.5 (3rd)
2016 47.2 (24th)

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This is probably the best evidence of a mental decline that I’ve seen; this is exactly where it would show up, in what’s been a historical strength of Brady’s. While there are certainly other factors that play into the specific statistics - many hot reads in 2019 not being good enough to create separation or even make the right read period - that doesn’t explain it all.

Hammer of Thor said:

This is probably the best evidence of a mental decline that I’ve seen; this is exactly where it would show up, in what’s been a historical strength of Brady’s. While there are certainly other factors that play into the specific statistics - many hot reads in 2019 not being good enough to create separation or even make the right read period - that doesn’t explain it all.

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It looks like it correlates pretty strongly to worse options at receiver. Inability to get separation, running wrong routes, the option for quick, effective dump offs (James White) faded when corners were stuck on him.

We'll see.

Kdo5 said:

It looks like it correlates pretty strongly to worse options at receiver. Inability to get separation, running wrong routes, the option for quick, effective dump offs (James White) faded when corners were stuck on him.

We'll see.

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Yup, that’s definitely a part of it. It’s just a question of what percentage - nearly all of it, or just some of it. Personally I still thought Brady was a top 5 QB last year, but maybe my eyes were just missing something.