Brady Negotiations to Begin at Combine (Merged)

TB_Helmet · Feb 18, 2020

Hyped said:
I included the 13.5 already on the books. The "new money" part is 70M over 3 years...but it would be a 3/83.5M deal. AAV of 27.8M vs. the cap.

Dumb question, Brady has already been paid this magical 13.5 million right? It just counts as our cap figure this year for cap accounting purposes (or 6.75m subject to his leaving or resigning before a certain date).

Ice_Ice_Brady · Feb 18, 2020

TB_Helmet said:
Dumb question, Brady has already been paid this magical 13.5 million right? It just counts as our cap figure this year for cap accounting purposes (or 6.75m subject to his leaving or resigning before a certain date).

Signs w/Patriots prior to 3/18 - 6.75M
Signs w/Patriots on or after 3/18 - 13.5M
Doesn’t sign w/Patriots (signs elsewhere or retires) - 13.5M

Detailing Tom Brady’s contract with important information as he potentially becomes free agent

I believe the cap number of ~40M includes a presumed 13.5M hit.

Hyped · Feb 18, 2020

TB_Helmet said:
Dumb question, Brady has already been paid this magical 13.5 million right? It just counts as our cap figure this year for cap accounting purposes (or 6.75m subject to his leaving or resigning before a certain date).

Yes, as I understand it...if he walks...we will have a dead cap hit of 13.5.

If we do a deal before the new league year, we can spread that over 2 seasons...for a hit of 6.75 a year.

Not sure what happens if we do a 3 year deal though....

But, Brady has already been paid that amount and we ain't getting it back.

Sciz · Feb 18, 2020

TB_Helmet said:
Dumb question, Brady has already been paid this magical 13.5 million right? It just counts as our cap figure this year for cap accounting purposes (or 6.75m subject to his leaving or resigning before a certain date).

Yes, he got a $20.25 million bonus last August, with ⅓ already accounted for on the 2019 cap.

TB_Helmet · Feb 18, 2020

Hyped said:
Yes, as I understand it...if he walks...we will have a dead cap hit of 13.5.

If we do a deal before the new league year, we can spread that over 2 seasons...for a hit of 6.75 a year.

Not sure what happens if we do a 3 year deal though....

But, Brady has already been paid that amount and we ain't getting it back.

He also probably doesn't care that he'd take up more cap space than he'd actually get paid this year, which is probably something they'd use in negotiations when they tell him how they can't afford to pay anyone else if he gets his 30m / year.

Hammer of Thor · Feb 18, 2020

Hyped said:
Yes, as I understand it...if he walks...we will have a dead cap hit of 13.5.

If we do a deal before the new league year, we can spread that over 2 seasons...for a hit of 6.75 a year.

Not sure what happens if we do a 3 year deal though....

But, Brady has already been paid that amount and we ain't getting it back.

That dead cap hit of 13.5m is still spread out over the next 2 years at 6.75 per year, which is the length of his most recent contract (fake years of 2020 and 2021). The 3rd year in a new contract (2022) can only take on the signing bonus of the new contract, not the old contract.

QuantumMechanic · Feb 18, 2020

KontradictioN said:
IMO, the fact that they don’t care about tampering is either really good or really bad news. It means they’re either 110% sure he’s coming back or they’re outright ready to move on. Gun to my head, I’d guess that it means the former.

I don't think it has to mean either. I think it can be as simple as NE saying "we want to know by March 16th what we're going to have to do so that if we can't reach a deal we know it by then and aren't locked out of free agency waiting to see how this goes. So go ahead and talk to teams and we'll look the other way on any tampering stuff. Then come back to us and we can make a final decision by March 16."

That's probably appealing to Brady too, because any non-NE team that might want him will also want to have things pretty settled by the 16th for the same reason NE does.

QuantumMechanic · Feb 18, 2020

TB_Helmet said:
Dumb question, Brady has already been paid this magical 13.5 million right? It just counts as our cap figure this year for cap accounting purposes (or 6.75m subject to his leaving or resigning before a certain date).

It depends on where the $13.5mil game from. If it was an upfront signing bonus, then yes, it's already in Brady's pocket. If it was money paid out over time but guaranteed to be paid, then no, it's not in his pocket yet, but NE is still obligated to pay it to him.

(As I understand it, cap accounting treats all guaranteed money, whether an up-front signing bonus or guaranteed salary paid out over time, the same way: you total it all up and divide by the number of years in the contract, and that quotient counts against the cap each year, subject to acceleration if the contract is cut short.)

mgteich · Feb 18, 2020

Hyped said:
Split the 50 over 3 years for ~17M a year....and I think the 13.5 is split over the next two years only. So...it would be 23.5M guaranteed the next two seasons and ~17M in the 3rd year. Stidham will be on the 4th and final year of his deal....if Brady walks away...we would be paying ~18M for a QB.

I think it works *if* Brady only cares about the money....giving him 50M up front is a good deterrent to Oakland/L.A. offering 60M/2 years.

To be clear, you're offering Brady $50M over 2 years or over 3 years. Please specify the contract: salary and bonuses.

As an aside, I would presume the structure of a Las Vegas contract 2/$60M would be something like a $20M a year salary and a $20M bonus. The only question would be to total guarantee which could be $40M, $50M or $60M.

mgteich · Feb 18, 2020

Hyped said:
Yes, as I understand it...if he walks...we will have a dead cap hit of 13.5.

If we do a deal before the new league year, we can spread that over 2 seasons...for a hit of 6.75 a year.

Not sure what happens if we do a 3 year deal though....

But, Brady has already been paid that amount and we ain't getting it back.

In a 3 year deal, the $6.75M from 2021 is NOT accelerated and would hit the cap books in 2021.

JarOfMayo51 · Feb 18, 2020

Tunescribe said:
Also people gloss over the fact that this year's schedule is historically brutal: seven games vs. 2019 playoff teams, THREE West Coast trips plus trips to KC and Houston.

Home
Denver Broncos
Oakland Raiders
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Ravens
New York Jets (Div.)
Miami Dolphins (Div.)
Buffalo Bills (Div.)

Away
Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Rams
Kansas City Chiefs
Houston Texans
New York Jets (Div.)
Miami Dolphins (Div.)
Buffalo Bills (Div.)

Woah, that is quite the gauntlet... the schedule will be very interesting to see how some of these games line up

Outside of divisional opponents, the "easiest" games are Arizona, Oakland, Denver. If the Cardinals offense takes the next jump, they could upset teams. Broncos are a question mark right now, depends on what happens after draft/free agency to see where they're at. Oakland played tough all year, with some more improvements they could upset some teams as well

carmelo15 · Feb 18, 2020

Ice_Ice_Brady said:
It is absolutely awful in every sense of the word.

Edelman will be 34 and cannot be counted to contribute at a high level; I believe he is one of the oldest receivers in the NFL and has dealt with major injuries in two of the last three seasons. Even if he turns back the clock a year, that is still not even close to enough to compete with.

Sanu is unlikely to make the team. He was so terrible in 2019 it's almost mind-boggling. His efficiency stats were off-the-charts, all-time lows. He was way, way worse than guys like Dobson and Thompkins in 2013. This was just a horrible signing, and there's no way he makes the team unless he signs a dirt cheap extension. $6M is more than they typically pay any receiver, so I have no idea how this cost is justified to Belichick when he may not even make the team at vet's minimum.

Harry is, at best, a glass half full proposition. In reality, based on his rookie season, I see no reason why his expectations are higher than any other highly drafted, unproven receiver kicking around the league, and there are a ton of those guys out there.

Meyers is a question mark; I am optimistic about him, but Brady needs to have more patience and the desire to want to work him into the passing game.

LaCosse is a bad joke and is at absolute best a backup. I think he's not even backup level.

White is a very good, but you can't build every gameplan around him, which was attempted last year and failed miserably. He was always an opponent-specific guy who was thrust into a high volume role due to a lack of supporting players. He is the ultimate complimentary player, and that's not an insult. I don't know if any RB in the NFL could have succeeded last year with the garbage around him that NE had.

$15M is virtually nothing with the problems they have. Haven't even addressed offensive line yet.

mom wonder Brady is using this tactic to get talent and not come back to the trash that was last years offense

Tunescribe · Feb 18, 2020

JarOfMayo51 said:
Woah, that is quite the gauntlet... the schedule will be very interesting to see how some of these games line up

Outside of divisional opponents, the "easiest" games are Arizona, Oakland, Denver. If the Cardinals offense takes the next jump, they could upset teams. Broncos are a question mark right now, depends on what happens after draft/free agency to see where they're at. Oakland played tough all year, with some more improvements they could upset some teams as well

I don't remember ever seeing the Patriots facing a harder schedule, not only with the opponents but the travel on top of it. It's a freaking meat grinder.

farn · Feb 18, 2020

I think people are making too much of the schedule. Things change so quickly in this league. I don’t necessarily think many of those teams will be contenders. At KC and at SEA could be tough. I suspect BAL and SF will regress and I don’t believe in neither LA team, nor LV, nor BUF.

I continue to maintain that Brady should be retained if possible if BB believes the team will contend. If he sees too many flaws to win, he could move on. I won’t fault him for choosing a 6-10 rebuild over a 9-7 Brady lead squad (if that’s how he’s seeing it).

Deus Irae · Feb 18, 2020

farn said:
I think people are making too much of the schedule. Things change so quickly in this league. I don’t necessarily think many of those teams will be contenders. At KC and at SEA could be tough. I suspect BAL and SF will regress and I don’t believe in neither LA team, nor LV, nor BUF.

What is your reasoning for the above, other than you being a Patriots fan (no, I'm not being a smart ass about that. I'm just looking for a reason beyond a Patriots fan's feelings. And, in case you think I'm trying to set you up, I'll get the ball rolling for you with SF, by noting that SF currently does not have a pick in rounds 2-4)?

Ice_Ice_Brady · Feb 18, 2020

farn said:
I think people are making too much of the schedule. Things change so quickly in this league. I don’t necessarily think many of those teams will be contenders. At KC and at SEA could be tough. I suspect BAL and SF will regress and I don’t believe in neither LA team, nor LV, nor BUF.

I continue to maintain that Brady should be retained if possible if BB believes the team will contend. If he sees too many flaws to win, he could move on. I won’t fault him for choosing a 6-10 rebuild over a 9-7 Brady lead squad (if that’s how he’s seeing it).

Agree with this 1000%.

Never sold on the schedule with the exception of road games vs. elite QBs, which you already pointed out is Seattle and KC. If Brady returns, they’re likely to be favored by 7+ points at home against every team except Baltimore and (possibly) SF. As for the perceived tough teams...

Rams - Might be in free fall; trending downward and paying for going all-in for 2018. I’d take the under if their Vegas win total is 8.

49ers - How many times has the SB loser been “too talented” to fall back to the pack, only to see them wish they could run with the pack?

Seahawks - As I said, they are concerning, but their point differential last year was almost even. They are likely to regress in W/L. Despite that, I have them and KC as likely losses.

Chargers - Never, ever count on this team to beat anyone.

Texans - Never, ever count on this team to beat anyone.

Between the Texans and Chargers, expect at least one win by their self-inflicted dysfunction alone.

farn · Feb 18, 2020

Deus Irae said:
What is your reasoning for the above, other than you being a Patriots fan (no, I'm not being a smart ass about that. I'm just looking for a reason beyond a Patriots fan's feelings. And, in case you think I'm trying to set you up, I'll get the ball rolling for you with SF, by noting that SF currently does not have a pick in rounds 2-4)?

I guess past history is my guide. Other than NE, very few teams have had a string of consecutive, exceptional seasons. Several teams (Brees Saints, early 2000s Indy, 2010s Seahawks for example) have what most would consider “sustained success” but they weren’t able to win more than one SB. I have no reason to believe SF, nor BAL will buck that trend.

In SF’s case, there isn’t a great deal of happiness for non-NE SB losers. They play in a tough division and while I do think Jimmy is a solid QB who wins, I prefer Wilson. In Baltimore’s case, I need to admit my bias against the running QB. Mahomes is most def mobile, but throw-first and accurate. Maybe Baltimore’s D was helped by an offense that had a good year. So I don’t trust the D, nor the QB (yet).

XLIX · Feb 18, 2020

Deus Irae said:
What is your reasoning for the above, other than you being a Patriots fan (no, I'm not being a smart ass about that. I'm just looking for a reason beyond a Patriots fan's feelings. And, in case you think I'm trying to set you up, I'll get the ball rolling for you with SF, by noting that SF currently does not have a pick in rounds 2-4)?

Last year the teams with the toughest preseason SOS were (in order) Oakland, Denver, Jax.

Those 3 teams' end of season SOS were (in order) 20, 12, 21, for an average of 17.67. 17.67 is pretty close to the middle.

So basically the teams who, before the season, were seen as having the 3 toughest SOS's ended up averaging out to middle of the road (if anything, a little easier than middle of the road).

farn · Feb 18, 2020

NFL predictions 2019: Patriots, Chiefs get new company in AFC playoffs

Just one example of how volatile the league can be. They got KC right (though 14-2 was generous) and they predicted NE would be #2 (which they nearly were). Chargers ? Steelers ? Indy ?

Cleveland was the darling. Everyone’s darling. Putrid trash.

I suspect a Google search of “2019 NFL preview” would get many similar false projections.

Ice_Ice_Brady · Feb 18, 2020

farn said:
NFL predictions 2019: Patriots, Chiefs get new company in AFC playoffs

Just one example of how volatile the league can be. They got KC right (though 14-2 was generous) and they predicted NE would be #2 (which they nearly were). Chargers ? Steelers ? Indy ?

I suspect a Google search of “2019 NFL preview” would get many similar false projections.

Hot picks galore last offseason for a Chargers-Bears Super Bowl.

There are some really basic concepts that actual work well to pick apart the pretenders, but people ignore them.

1. Subpar QBs who had everything around them go perfectly (2017 Bortles, 2018 Trubisky, 2019 Allen). Success won’t be sustained.
2. Defenses with extremely abnormal turnovers (2015 Cardinals, 2015 Panthers, 2016 Raiders, 2018 Bears). Success won’t be sustained.
3. Point differential shows much weaker team than W/L...team with abnormally high success in close games (2016 Raiders, 2017 Panthers, 2019 Texans) and team lacks MVP caliber QB who does have a real advantage in close games. Success won’t be sustained.

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