Brady Negotiations to Begin at Combine (Merged)

denverpatsfan said:

I'm ready to move on if this doesn't work out. I'm concerned that the team won't be able to pay Tom and sign the right players to support him. If that can work then great. If not maybe it's time to play the kid and see what he can do.

Click to expand...

The Patriots are currently scheduled to play the most difficult projected schedule in the league. But, sure, let's just let Stidham be the starter. It's been far too long since the Patriots were drafting in the top 5-10 based on merit. I'm sure the fan base will love the season that produces that.

Hyped said:

The 2020 cap will be 196.8M. With Brady accounting for 30M at most...that is only 15% of the cap.

A question: Is a top 10 QB worth 15% of your cap?

Click to expand...

First of all, Tom has NEVER represented 15% of the cap. The highest ever was 13.1% which was after his big payday in 2010. I would also caution you in applying the 15% of cap space justification to the 2020 NEP cap situation. Thats not the way they do things here.

As of right now the NEP have $49m in cap space. Based on your proposal in 2020 w/ his new deal if Tom is counting $3om (actually $36.75m in 2020 if he is signed before 3/18 and it bloats to $43.5m if signed after 3/18. If that happens that'll be either 19% or 22% of the cap and leave ~$19m for the rest of FA and the draft. Unless I'm missing something no way in hell BB does that.

With that said based on how he has dealt with Tom's contract since the 2010 deal, my belief is BB does not want to pay that kind of cash because a) he needs to add/resign a number of key pieces to compete at a championship level because last year they did not and b)he does not want to go multi-year with a soon-to-be 43 year old QB.

Hopefully Tom and BB figure it out.

robertweathers said:

First of all, Tom has NEVER represented 15% of the cap. The highest ever was 13.1% which was after his big payday in 2010. I would also caution you in applying the 15% of cap space justification to the 2020 NEP cap situation. Thats not the way they do things here.

As of right now the NEP have $49m in cap space. Based on your proposal in 2020 w/ his new deal if Tom is counting $3om (actually $36.75m in 2020 if he is signed before 3/18 and it bloats to $43.5m if signed after 3/18. If that happens that'll be either 19% or 22% of the cap and leave ~$19m for the rest of FA and the draft. Unless I'm missing something no way in hell BB does that.

With that said based on how he has dealt with Tom's contract since the 2010 deal, my belief is BB does not want to pay that kind of cash because a) he needs to add/resign a number of key pieces to compete at a championship level because last year they did not and b)he does not want to go multi-year with a soon-to-be 43 year old QB.

Hopefully Tom and BB figure it out.

Click to expand...

My 30M figure accounts for the 13.5 dead money currently on the cap though. S0, it would be 15% for this year....probably 12-13% next year if the cap goes up yet again...and a lot less in year 3.

TB_Helmet said:

Salary cap % for each QB to win the Super Bowl. This is from a year ago and no guarantees as to its accuracy (although sources provided). It suggests (but doesn't conclude) that the answer to your question is no:

Click to expand...

I'd like to see that updated with 2018 and 2019...especially given Russell Wilson's new deal and others....

Next new report: Brady, Pats contract talk scheduled

Hyped said:

I'd like to see that updated with 2018 and 2019...especially given Russell Wilson's new deal and others....

Click to expand...

Well it's only SB winning QBs, so Wilson won't show up there ;-) Mahomes was obviously a small fraction for the Chiefs, and I'm sure someone here knows off the top of their heads what Brady's was in 2018. Not 15% though!

ETA it's right there at the bottom, Brady was 12%, which makes him the second highest QB cap percentage for QBs who won the title.

I don't think that Belichick wants to "figure it out". They could make the new money hit less than $20M plus the $6.75M that is part of the old contract. That would give the patriots approximately $21M of cap room to work with. BTW, the available cap room would be only a bit lower if Bill brought in another vet.

Could Bill and Casserio build a contender with $21M of cap money, plus the restructures and replacements? Sure they COULD. The defense would restructure Hightower and Gilmore, and re-sign McCourty and Shelton and continue to be a top 5 defense. The offense would have draft picks and $20M to work with, plus they could replace Sanu and/or Cannon without any additional cap cost. Andrews and Develin would either come back, or free up cap space.
========
I believe the problem is that working it out require a 2 year contract, plus a fake 3rd year. If the CBA is signed in the next month, then a 1-year contract like last year might work (if Tom were at all interested).

I suspect that Tom is already deciding between TENN and Las Vegas, and might listen to to other offers. Sure, the team and Tom's folks will have a meeting or two, to see if either has moved enough to continue talks.

A difficult job for Bill is to get what he can in trade for Edelman, from Tom's new team.

robertweathers said:

First of all, Tom has NEVER represented 15% of the cap. The highest ever was 13.1% which was after his big payday in 2010. I would also caution you in applying the 15% of cap space justification to the 2020 NEP cap situation. Thats not the way they do things here.

As of right now the NEP have $49m in cap space. Based on your proposal in 2020 w/ his new deal if Tom is counting $3om (actually $36.75m in 2020 if he is signed before 3/18 and it bloats to $43.5m if signed after 3/18. If that happens that'll be either 19% or 22% of the cap and leave ~$19m for the rest of FA and the draft. Unless I'm missing something no way in hell BB does that.

With that said based on how he has dealt with Tom's contract since the 2010 deal, my belief is BB does not want to pay that kind of cash because a) he needs to add/resign a number of key pieces to compete at a championship level because last year they did not and b)he does not want to go multi-year with a soon-to-be 43 year old QB.

Hopefully Tom and BB figure it out.

Click to expand...

TB_Helmet said:

Well it's only SB winning QBs, so Wilson won't show up there ;-) Mahomes was obviously a small fraction for the Chiefs, and I'm sure someone here knows off the top of their heads what Brady's was in 2018. Not 15% though!

ETA it's right there at the bottom, Brady was 12%, which makes him the second highest QB cap percentage for QBs who won the title.

Click to expand...

In 2019, Brady's cap number was 21.5M vs. the team's cap of 188M = 11.4%

If Brady is OK with taking 12% of the cap, we absolutely have a deal in place, IMO....as 12% of 196M is ~23.5M.

Elijah said:

I don't think we should be concerned about Stidham's development. If he turns out to be a good successor to Brady, great. But he cannot, should not, and will not be plan A after Brady.

Click to expand...

I expected some disagreement, but not 100%. What exactly about this man do you guys find intriguing as a developmental prospect? We took him round 4. That's not where you find your starter. All I'm saying is we absolutely need to keep looking for QB prospects.

What I cannot understand is what makes some people think that with a terrible offense and a horrible record at drafting offensive talent, the right thing to do is to let Brady go and save some cap money. It’s mind boggling to me.

Hyped said:

My 30M figure accounts for the 13.5 dead money currently on the cap though. S0, it would be 15% for this year....probably 12-13% next year if the cap goes up yet again...and a lot less in year 3.

Click to expand...

In your 3 year/70M new money extension with 50M guaranteed on top of the 13.5 Brady already earned and total annual cap hits if Brady plays out all 3 years: 30M, 30M, and 23.5M how are the $50m in guarantees spread out in terms of % of cap hit if cut?

mgteich said:

I don't think that Belichick wants to "figure it out". They could make the new money hit less than $20M plus the $6.75M that is part of the old contract. That would give the patriots approximately $21M of cap room to work with. BTW, the available cap room would be only a bit lower if Bill brought in another vet.

Could Bill and Casserio build a contender with $21M of cap money, plus the restructures and replacements? Sure they COULD. The defense would restructure Hightower and Gilmore, and re-sign McCourty and Shelton and continue to be a top 5 defense. The offense would have draft picks and $20M to work with, plus they could replace Sanu and/or Cannon without any additional cap cost. Andrews and Develin would either come back, or free up cap space.
========
I believe the problem is that working it out require a 2 year contract, plus a fake 3rd year. If the CBA is signed in the next month, then a 1-year contract like last year might work (if Tom were at all interested).

I suspect that Tom is already deciding between TENN and Las Vegas, and might listen to to other offers. Sure, the team and Tom's folks will have a meeting or two, to see if either has moved enough to continue talks.

A difficult job for Bill is to get what he can in trade for Edelman, from Tom's new team.

Click to expand...

I think Bill does want to figure it out but under a budget. $21m is not enough for what they need to get done in FA (see TE, WR and LBs to replace KVN and Jamie...maybe they draft a rookie).

Hyped said:

In 2019, Brady's cap number was 21.5M vs. the team's cap of 188M = 11.4%

If Brady is OK with taking 12% of the cap, we absolutely have a deal in place, IMO....as 12% of 196M is ~23.5M.

Click to expand...

Although we still have the 6.5m dead cap hit right? So that 12% number is higher when you say "amount of $ devoted to the QB".

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

They would probably have to sell out to do it, as in weaken the team in other areas. Of McCourty, Thuney, and Van Noy, maybe enough money to sign one of them...I’d think McCourty would be most interested in continuing on a team friendly deal considering he has lived in the area the longest and is a borderline Pats Hall of Fame candidate (a lock in my eyes, borderline in the eyes of others.)

So letting all those free agents go, releasing Sanu, maybe restructuring
Gilmore. They’d need to figure out how to bring in some good receivers, and that seems to be the biggest problem because having the money and resources still results in a crapshoot. Edelman will be 34. Amendola will be 35. Neither can be counted on as realistic solutions. Even White is likely entering the end of his prime. This team is really in trouble. I think a re-evaluation of their offensive philosophy is the only answer. I’ve also proposed that trading Gilmore for an ultra elite, can’t fail receiver may be another solution (Hopkins level player)...but the net gain/loss there would be a huge gamble.

Click to expand...

Also people gloss over the fact that this year's schedule is historically brutal: seven games vs. 2019 playoff teams, THREE West Coast trips plus trips to KC and Houston.

Home
Denver Broncos
Oakland Raiders
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Ravens
New York Jets (Div.)
Miami Dolphins (Div.)
Buffalo Bills (Div.)

Away
Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Rams
Kansas City Chiefs
Houston Texans
New York Jets (Div.)
Miami Dolphins (Div.)
Buffalo Bills (Div.)

Tunescribe said:

BB: "OK Tom. We can sign you for $25 million and put the team in cap hell to surround you with elite receivers and top offensive linemen. But you do realize this will require you to score an average of 38 points per game as we won't be able to afford a defense worth sh!t."

I always have loved Tom Brady but after that freaking Hulu commercial I don't care if he stays or goes. It's only one more season with him at the most anyway and the Patriots won't be in the title hunt this year with or without him. But that's just my opinion.

Click to expand...

At least Brady didn't leave the team hanging like Gronk did. TB12 has said all along that he wants to play and his Hulu ad confirmed that.

Until age finally catches up, Brady is the best chance the Pats have to win. When that will happen is still in doubt (it could happen at any time) but it wouldn't surprise me if we got another season or two from good old TB12.

BB honks, pre-2020:


"What makes BB so great as a talent guy is his ability to put together a great team using almost nothing but bargain basement players."



BB honks, 2020:

"They can't give Brady a (fill in the reasonable salary) deal. If they do that, they won't have enough money to build the rest of the team, except for bargain basement players!"

robertweathers said:

I think Bill does want to figure it out but under a budget. $21m is not enough for what they need to get done in FA (see TE, WR and LBs to replace KVN and Jamie...maybe they draft a rookie).

Click to expand...

I don't see us spending significant FA on a linebacker. We will need to hope for production from Bentley and Winovich. But yes, some minor money needs to be spent on Roberts and Calhoun, or their replacements. I also expect us to draft a linebacker.

IMO, the fact that they don’t care about tampering is either really good or really bad news. It means they’re either 110% sure he’s coming back or they’re outright ready to move on. Gun to my head, I’d guess that it means the former.

robertweathers said:

In your 3 year/70M new money extension with 50M guaranteed on top of the 13.5 Brady already earned and total annual cap hits if Brady plays out all 3 years: 30M, 30M, and 23.5M how are the $50m in guarantees spread out in terms of % of cap hit if cut?

Click to expand...

Split the 50 over 3 years for ~17M a year....and I think the 13.5 is split over the next two years only. So...it would be 23.5M guaranteed the next two seasons and ~17M in the 3rd year. Stidham will be on the 4th and final year of his deal....if Brady walks away...we would be paying ~18M for a QB.

I think it works *if* Brady only cares about the money....giving him 50M up front is a good deterrent to Oakland/L.A. offering 60M/2 years.

TB_Helmet said:

Although we still have the 6.5m dead cap hit right? So that 12% number is higher when you say "amount of $ devoted to the QB".

Click to expand...

I included the 13.5 already on the books. The "new money" part is 70M over 3 years...but it would be a 3/83.5M deal. AAV of 27.8M vs. the cap.