Brady Negotiations to Begin at Combine (Merged)

Would bringing Brady back for 3 years stunt Stidham's development? Look at Jimmy G - had to sit behind Brady for 3 years and the dude's 28 already with only 1 full season as starter...

venecol said:

Can't wait for TB to provide the input that AB be re-signed. That alone will improve the O by 50%.

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Unless AB is in jail, the insane asylum, or dead.

TommyBrady12 said:

Would bringing Brady back for 3 years stunt Stidham's development? Look at Jimmy G - had to sit behind Brady for 3 years and the dude's 28 already with only 1 full season as starter...

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I don't think we should be concerned about Stidham's development. If he turns out to be a good successor to Brady, great. But he cannot, should not, and will not be plan A after Brady.

Biffins said:

The presumption that paying Brady $25m puts us in cap hell is completely false.

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The patriots would have about $21M of cap room after signing Brady.

They would restructure available on Hightower and Gilmore which would pay for McCourty and Shelton (or another NT). The offense is where we will obviously focus.

$21M OF OFFENSE
1) we would likely spend $5M on an OG/C, probably Karras.
2) Cannon will be our RT, or we will use his cap money for a replacement.
3) We will draft a couple of more OL's to compete with Froholdt, Cajuste, Ferentz, Cunningham and maybe Newhouse.

AND THEN
Hopefully, Andrews and Develin are back. Otherwise, there is a bit more cap room. So, here we are as always, looking for receivers and TE's. In addition to the draft, we would start with Edelman, Sanu, Harry, Meyers, LeCosse AND Brady as our QB!

So, draft a couple receivers, and a TE or two, in addition to whoever we secure as free agents. $16M is not a lot to start with, but it is not terrible either. The good or bad news is that the patriots rarely spend at lot on one receiver, no $15AAV receiver for Belichick. So, the $15M will be OK to work with.

Consider getting 3 players at the same contract structure
$3.0M 2020 salary plus NLTBE bonuses
$4.5M 2021 salary
$6.0M 2022 salary
$6.0M bonus
$5.0M 2020 cap hit per player
this contract is 3/$18.5M or a bit more than $6M AAV

If that doesn't work, try getting 2 players
$5M 2020 salary
$6M 2021 salary
$7M 2022 salary
$7.5M bonus
$7.5M 2020 cap hit per player
this contract is 3/$25.5M or $8.5M AAV

TommyBrady12 said:

Would bringing Brady back for 3 years stunt Stidham's development? Look at Jimmy G - had to sit behind Brady for 3 years and the dude's 28 already with only 1 full season as starter...

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What makes you think making Stidham is worth pushing Brady out for

Curran is just creating new stories every week about this. There is nothing new.

lancerman said:

What makes you think making Stidham is worth pushing Brady out for

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I've heard the Pats are high on him, but those are just rumors right now...

29 days to go.....just shoot me....

My guess: 3 year/70M new money extension with 50M guaranteed on top of the 13.5 Brady already earned. Total annual cap hits if Brady plays out all 3 years: 30M, 30M, and 23.5M. Brady takes home 56.67M in year one and 6.66M the last two years. Basically, in two years...Brady would make the same 60M he would with the Raiders/Chargers/Titans and the Patriots can part ways after two seasons and eat a 16.66M dead cap hit.

Biffins said:

The presumption that paying Brady $25m puts us in cap hell is completely false.

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Well really, it would be 31.5m right ? Let's not forget the poison pill from the last contract of $6.5m a year for the next 2 years, IF they resign him prior to free agency. IF they let him test FA, then that poison pill is $13m for this year, whether they resign him or not. IF you are giving him 18.5m + 6.5m, then it would be 25m a year.

I'm far from a cap expert. But I really find it difficult to figure out how they can afford TB12 at market rate, AND offensive weapons.

scott99 said:

Well really, it would be 31.5m right ? Let's not forget the poison pill from the last contract of $6.5m a year for the next 2 years, IF they resign him prior to free agency. IF they let him test FA, then that poison pill is $13m for this year, whether they resign him or not. IF you are giving him 18.5m + 6.5m, then it would be 25m a year.

I'm far from a cap expert. But I really find it difficult to figure out how they can afford TB12 at market rate, AND offensive weapons.

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They would probably have to sell out to do it, as in weaken the team in other areas. Of McCourty, Thuney, and Van Noy, maybe enough money to sign one of them...I’d think McCourty would be most interested in continuing on a team friendly deal considering he has lived in the area the longest and is a borderline Pats Hall of Fame candidate (a lock in my eyes, borderline in the eyes of others.)

So letting all those free agents go, releasing Sanu, maybe restructuring
Gilmore. They’d need to figure out how to bring in some good receivers, and that seems to be the biggest problem because having the money and resources still results in a crapshoot. Edelman will be 34. Amendola will be 35. Neither can be counted on as realistic solutions. Even White is likely entering the end of his prime. This team is really in trouble. I think a re-evaluation of their offensive philosophy is the only answer. I’ve also proposed that trading Gilmore for an ultra elite, can’t fail receiver may be another solution (Hopkins level player)...but the net gain/loss there would be a huge gamble.

scott99 said:

Well really, it would be 31.5m right ? Let's not forget the poison pill from the last contract of $6.5m a year for the next 2 years, IF they resign him prior to free agency. IF they let him test FA, then that poison pill is $13m for this year, whether they resign him or not. IF you are giving him 18.5m + 6.5m, then it would be 25m a year.

I'm far from a cap expert. But I really find it difficult to figure out how they can afford TB12 at market rate, AND offensive weapons.

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You don't have to take a the full cap charge in year one of a multiyear deal.

Hyped said:

29 days to go.....just shoot me....

My guess: 3 year/70M new money extension with 50M guaranteed on top of the 13.5 Brady already earned. Total annual cap hits if Brady plays out all 3 years: 30M, 30M, and 23.5M. Brady takes home 56.67M in year one and 6.66M the last two years. Basically, in two years...Brady would make the same 60M he would with the Raiders/Chargers/Titans and the Patriots can part ways after two seasons and eat a 16.66M dead cap hit.

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Hate to be a Debbie Downer but I don't see BB committing to this.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

They would probably have to sell out to do it, as in weaken the team in other areas. Of McCourty, Thuney, and Van Noy, maybe enough money to sign one of them...I’d think McCourty would be most interested in continuing on a team friendly deal considering he has lived in the area the longest and is a borderline Pats Hall of Fame candidate (a lock in my eyes, borderline in the eyes of others.)

So letting all those free agents go, releasing Sanu, maybe restructuring
Gilmore. They’d need to figure out how to bring in some good receivers, and that seems to be the biggest problem because having the money and resources still results in a crapshoot. Edelman will be 34. Amendola will be 35. Neither can be counted on as realistic solutions. Even White is likely entering the end of his prime. This team is really in trouble. I think a re-evaluation of their offensive philosophy is the only answer. I’ve also proposed that trading Gilmore for an ultra elite, can’t fail receiver may be another solution (Hopkins level player)...but the net gain/loss there would be a huge gamble.

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Ice_Ice_Brady said:

They would probably have to sell out to do it, as in weaken the team in other areas. Of McCourty, Thuney, and Van Noy, maybe enough money to sign one of them...I’d think McCourty would be most interested in continuing on a team friendly deal considering he has lived in the area the longest and is a borderline Pats Hall of Fame candidate (a lock in my eyes, borderline in the eyes of others.)

So letting all those free agents go, releasing Sanu, maybe restructuring
Gilmore. They’d need to figure out how to bring in some good receivers, and that seems to be the biggest problem because having the money and resources still results in a crapshoot. Edelman will be 34. Amendola will be 35. Neither can be counted on as realistic solutions. Even White is likely entering the end of his prime. This team is really in trouble. I think a re-evaluation of their offensive philosophy is the only answer. I’ve also proposed that trading Gilmore for an ultra elite, can’t fail receiver may be another solution (Hopkins level player)...but the net gain/loss there would be a huge gamble.

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Not only a re-evaluation of their offensive philosophy, but also a re-evaluation of their DRAFTING philosophy when it comes to offensive weapons. For instance, the most Patriot thing to do, is since they don't have a 2nd round pick, trade down to pick up 2nd round picks. That has NEVER worked for the Pats offensively. Always trading away high picks, for lower picks that are used on BUST 2nd round DBs. USE #23, and get yourself an offensive weapon. In round 3, pick one or two PASS CATCHING TEs. They have THREE 3rd round picks, they can trade UP to get some offensive talent. Stop trading DOWN and out of primo draft slots.

If you swing and miss, and that player doesn't work out, at least you tried. SO many offensive weapons will be available at #23, the WR draft may be the deepest (with GOOD WRs) I've ever seen, teams will be signing UDRFAs after this draft that are better than some receivers drafted in rounds 4-7 last year. GOOD TEs run 10 deep, so may have to trade up to the 2nd round to get one of those top 10, if there is a run on TEs.

I'm really hoping we walk away with 2 WRs (at least) and 2 TEs in the 2020 draft. And I'm hoping they all come within the first 3 rounds.

People still think AB is coming back? He's never playing in the NFL again.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

They would probably have to sell out to do it, as in weaken the team in other areas. Of McCourty, Thuney, and Van Noy, maybe enough money to sign one of them...I’d think McCourty would be most interested in continuing on a team friendly deal considering he has lived in the area the longest and is a borderline Pats Hall of Fame candidate (a lock in my eyes, borderline in the eyes of others.)

So letting all those free agents go, releasing Sanu, maybe restructuring
Gilmore. They’d need to figure out how to bring in some good receivers, and that seems to be the biggest problem because having the money and resources still results in a crapshoot. Edelman will be 34. Amendola will be 35. Neither can be counted on as realistic solutions. Even White is likely entering the end of his prime. This team is really in trouble. I think a re-evaluation of their offensive philosophy is the only answer. I’ve also proposed that trading Gilmore for an ultra elite, can’t fail receiver may be another solution (Hopkins level player)...but the net gain/loss there would be a huge gamble.

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Let's separate the defense and offense, to see how far the $20M or so will go if Brady comes back, or if we sign another, lower cost vet at the same net cap cost. The salary plus amortized bonus would need to be $6.75M less than Brady because of the additional amortization of Brady's last contract. I'm not sure that we would even spend that much, b ut that is a good place to start.

DEFENSE
I don't that the defense is a huge issue. Restructures of Hightower and Gilmore should be enough to re-sign McCourty and Shelton (or a Shelton replacement). I think that we will keep Jason if his brother extends. Personally, I would like an additional biggie, but Cowart is the man for now (plus perhaps another draftee).

OFFENSE
There are two needs to address: the OL and receivers.
1) We need to re-sign Karras ($5M AAV) or an equivalent OG/C, along with drafting a couple of OL's to compete with Froholdt, Cajuste, Cunningham, Ferentz and maybe Newhouse. Andrews may or may not be in the mix. It now looks like Cannon will try to come back. If not, then his cap money will be used for his replacement.
2) Brady will start with Edelman, Sanu, Harry, Meyers, LaCosse, and White as his receivers. That isn't all that awful as far as it goes, but it does need additions at WR and TE, in free agency and in the draft. Is $15M a terrible amount to start with? I suppose that we could extend Sanu and have bit more cap money, or replace him with the same result.
3) I hope that Develin is able to return. If not, we will have a downgrade with Jacob, but also have more cap room.

This post is not a specific response to any one person. It's a general response to goodness only knows how many people:



We really need to figure out an internet equivalent to the "free punch", because it seems as if that's the only way we're going to get people to knock it the hell off with the "But, if they pay Brady, they can't sign anyone..." nonsense.

robertweathers said:

Hate to be a Debbie Downer but I don't see BB committing to this.

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The 2020 cap will be 196.8M. With Brady accounting for 30M at most...that is only 15% of the cap.

A question: Is a top 10 QB worth 15% of your cap?

Just to be clear, Drew Brees’ 2020 cap hit automatically starts at $15.9M because of his previous signing bonus & restructure. Anything new (salary, bonus, etc…) adds on from there. The #Saints will most likely be taking on a big time cap figure for the upcoming season.

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Hyped said:

The 2020 cap will be 196.8M. With Brady accounting for 30M at most...that is only 15% of the cap.

A question: Is a top 10 QB worth 15% of your cap?

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Salary cap % for each QB to win the Super Bowl. This is from a year ago and no guarantees as to its accuracy (although sources provided). It suggests (but doesn't conclude) that the answer to your question is no:

mgteich said:

2) Brady will start with Edelman, Sanu, Harry, Meyers, LaCosse, and White as his receivers. That isn't all that awful as far as it goes, but it does need additions at WR and TE, in free agency and in the draft. Is $15M a terrible amount to start with? I suppose that we could extend Sanu and have bit more cap money, or replace him with the same result.

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It is absolutely awful in every sense of the word.

Edelman will be 34 and cannot be counted to contribute at a high level; I believe he is one of the oldest receivers in the NFL and has dealt with major injuries in two of the last three seasons. Even if he turns back the clock a year, that is still not even close to enough to compete with.

Sanu is unlikely to make the team. He was so terrible in 2019 it's almost mind-boggling. His efficiency stats were off-the-charts, all-time lows. He was way, way worse than guys like Dobson and Thompkins in 2013. This was just a horrible signing, and there's no way he makes the team unless he signs a dirt cheap extension. $6M is more than they typically pay any receiver, so I have no idea how this cost is justified to Belichick when he may not even make the team at vet's minimum.

Harry is, at best, a glass half full proposition. In reality, based on his rookie season, I see no reason why his expectations are higher than any other highly drafted, unproven receiver kicking around the league, and there are a ton of those guys out there.

Meyers is a question mark; I am optimistic about him, but Brady needs to have more patience and the desire to want to work him into the passing game.

LaCosse is a bad joke and is at absolute best a backup. I think he's not even backup level.

White is a very good, but you can't build every gameplan around him, which was attempted last year and failed miserably. He was always an opponent-specific guy who was thrust into a high volume role due to a lack of supporting players. He is the ultimate complimentary player, and that's not an insult. I don't know if any RB in the NFL could have succeeded last year with the garbage around him that NE had.

$15M is virtually nothing with the problems they have. Haven't even addressed offensive line yet.