How the Patriots got where they are: College draft edition

First round picks get 5 year deals (yeah, year 5 can be skipped). Beyond that, we're looking at a 4 year window. So here are the Patriots picks within that window.

2015 first round pick, and then 2016-2019 picks:

Malcom Brown

Cyrus Jones
Joe Thuney
Jacoby Brissett
Vincent Valentine
Malcolm Mitchell
Kamu Grugier-Hill
Elandon Roberts
Ted Karras
Devin Lucien

Derek Rivers
Antonio Garcia
Deatrich Wise
Conor McDermott

Isaiah Wynn
Sony Michel
Duke Dawson
Ja'Whaun Bentley
Christian Sam
Braxton Berrios
Danny Etling
Keion Crossen
Ryan Izzo

N'Keal Harry
JoeJuan Williams
Chase Winovich
Damien Harris
Yodny Cajuste
Hjalte Froholdt
Jarrett Stidham
Byron Cowart
Jake Bailey
Ken Webster

This is what the Patriots have gotten out of those last 4+ drafts.

How many SBs?

TheAdultintheRoom said:

How many SBs?

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That's not a relevant question for the thread.

That is a bunch of crap, likely bottom quarter of the league - and that's being generous...

People forget , perhaps on purpose, that Bill Belichick drafted a ****ing FULLBACK in the first round...and has spent a cavalcade of second Rd picks on has beens and never will bes...

Don't count on Bill drafting the Patriots into a 12 win club if Brady tells Krafty Bob to take a hike...

Folks need to look at Bill's Cleveland drafts....bad, bad, bad, bad and bad

That's a pretty bad group. The only one who I would even say grades as an A or even close is Thuney.

203Pat said:

That's a pretty bad group. The only one who I would even say grades as an A or even close is Thuney.

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Wynn, too. When he’s actually been able to get on the field. Sony’s ceiling to this point is a B but a RB that has trouble operating out of singleback sets and has been close to useless on third down is not who you want to burn a first round pick on. This could, of course, change (Edelman didn’t break through until his 5th season, after all), but that’s what we’re looking at as of 1/23/2020.

KontradictioN said:

Wynn, too. When he’s actually been able to get on the field. Sony’s ceiling to this point is a B but a RB that has trouble operating out of singleback sets and has been close to useless on third down is not who you want to burn a first round pick on. This could, of course, change (Edelman didn’t break through until his 5th season, after all), but that’s what we’re looking at as of 1/23/2020.

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I wouldn't argue if someone said Wynn is a B level grade but it's hard to overlook the amount of time he's missed. As for Sony I think he is a C (average) level player and we would be very lucky if his Patriot career ended up any better. I kept waiting for him to look like the back he was in college but that seems less and less likely and at this rate if he is still on the team in year four I would be shocked if they picked up his 5th year option.

Just a note about these "How the Patriots got where they are" threads:

Doing straight free agency (and UDFA hits) will be a big pain in the ass, as I can't find any sites that are particularly helpful. So, if the two threads I've already done don't inspire some quality conversation, I'm not going to waste my time trying to jump start things with a 3rd thread. So, if someone wants to crank up "How the Patriots got where they are: Free agency edition", they are more than welcome to do so.

203Pat said:

That's a pretty bad group. The only one who I would even say grades as an A or even close is Thuney.

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Bailey and Winovich

Queue the people coming in and saying it’s because they draft near, or at, the bottom every year. Those same people will then turn around and say that a team with zero shot shouldn’t tank for a higher pick.

Its like we completely skipped the 2017 draft

JarOfMayo51 said:

Its like we completely skipped the 2017 draft

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What are you talking about? Rivers is going to be a beast.

Grade A's
Joe Thuney

Grade B's
Isaiah Wynn - if he can stay healthy, appears to be a solid player
Jake Bailey
Chase Winovich?
Sony Michel?

The rest are Cs at best, with the jury still out on 2019 class

Triumph said:

Bailey and Winovich

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A little early to give them a grade at all.

JarOfMayo51 said:

Grade A's
Joe Thuney

Grade B's
Isaiah Wynn - if he can stay healthy, appears to be a solid player
Jake Bailey
Chase Winovich?
Sony Michel?

The rest are Cs at best, with the jury still out on 2019 class

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Lol a B for a first round RB who can’t hit 1k yards or average over 4 ypc in his second year.

203Pat said:

Lol a B for a first round RB who can’t hit 1k yards or average over 4 ypc in his second year.

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I had it as a question, knowing he was on the edge. He got a little bump for his rookie year playoff performance, helped us win a SB. He does need to improve as an all around back tho

203Pat said:

That's a pretty bad group. The only one who I would even say grades as an A or even close is Thuney.

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The big issue with this era of Patriots drafting is the lack of any S-tier talent, the true gamechanging guys who sit around for 10 years and serve as your true blue chip moneymakers. But even A-tier talent isn't really there either.

In the early part of the dynasty you had Brady, Seymour, and Wilfork in that S tier with some legitimate solid A+ guys and As like Samuel, Faulk, Warren, Light, Branch, Givens, and Wilson.

In the next era, starting in 2005 and ending in 2009, your S-tier talents are Slater and Edelman but neither showed up until the end (and his talent doesn't emerge until the next era anyways). It's a pretty weak era for drafting, with Mankins, Mayo, Vollmer, and Gostkowski as the only A level guys. Chung's a weird border case because his career's an A but he had to leave and come back to realize it.

Then you have the next five years, with Gronk as the obvious S-tier. Hernandez probably deserves a mention in that tier (or at least an A+) as well for the period of time he played. McCourty, White, Mason, and Hightower are also an A+, and Flowers (left after rookie contract), Solder, Ebner, Harmon, Ryan, and Cannon were solid As. (Chandler Jones is a weird case as well, an A+ career but more like a B for the Patriots given draft position and return.)

In the current era, Thuney is an A but the fact he probably won't stick around after his rookie contract prevents a higher grade. And he's a guard, probably the most replaceable position in football, where the difference between an All Pro and a solid guy is pretty small in terms of outcomes. Wynn has the potential to be an A+ or A player. Maybe Bentley if he continues an upward trajectory. Otherwise, yeah, everyone else to this point is either too soon to call (anyone drafted in the last couple seasons) or a B type at best (think Roberts or Karras, tough to argue with getting a solid player in the 6th round but both are at best a replacement-level starter).

Deus Irae said:

First round picks get 5 year deals (yeah, year 5 can be skipped). Beyond that, we're looking at a 4 year window. So here are the Patriots picks within that window.

2015 first round pick, and then 2016-2019 picks:

Malcom Brown

Cyrus Jones
Joe Thuney
Jacoby Brissett
Vincent Valentine
Malcolm Mitchell
Kamu Grugier-Hill
Elandon Roberts
Ted Karras
Devin Lucien

Derek Rivers
Antonio Garcia
Deatrich Wise
Conor McDermott

Isaiah Wynn
Sony Michel
Duke Dawson
Ja'Whaun Bentley
Christian Sam
Braxton Berrios
Danny Etling
Keion Crossen
Ryan Izzo

N'Keal Harry
JoeJuan Williams
Chase Winovich
Damien Harris
Yodny Cajuste
Hjalte Froholdt
Jarrett Stidham
Byron Cowart
Jake Bailey
Ken Webster

This is what the Patriots have gotten out of those last 4+ drafts.

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That is just plain ugly.