NFL GAME DAY DISCUSSION Super Bowl 54: Game Discussion

Regarding the man v. zone scheme the chargers have played Mahomes 4 times:

213.75 yards per game
62.71 comp pct
7.2 ypa (career average 8.6)
8 TDs
2 INTs
100.1 passer rating
30.3 PPG

They run the most cover 3 in the NFL - a scheme designed to limit the big play but can be shredded underneath through the short passing game. Brady's owned this scheme for years including multiple superbowls & the chargers themselves.

A cover 3 defense with an elite pass rush is an interesting matchup for Mahomes. He will need to be patient & take what the D gives them - Reid as well. He hasn't shredded his division rival that runs an inferior version to this point either. The only QB to really torch the 49ers this season is Brees which makes sense.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

THERE IS NO TEAM OF DESTINY!

Everyone says this every year, about every team that wins a playoff game. KC has beaten up on two relatively weak teams. I think this game is very competitive, but team of destiny is as valid as tarot cards. Why wouldn’t SF be the team of destiny? Everything, and I mean everything, aligned for them to build this 2019 powerhouse.

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SF beat Minnesota and Green Bay

SammyBlueCat said:

SF beat Minnesota and Green Bay

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Not to start a pissing contest, but Hou-Tenn were combined 19-13. Point differential of +64.

GB and Minn were 23-9 (and Minn tanked their last game). Point differential of +167.

I think San Francisco had a much tougher schedule and blew them both out; Kansas City trailed 24-0 and 17-7 to teams that were closer to average than elite.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

Not to start a pissing contest, but Hou-Tenn were combined 19-13. Point differential of +64.

GB and Minn were 23-9 (and Minn tanked their last game). Point differential of +167.

I think San Francisco had a much tougher schedule and blew them both out; Kansas City trailed 24-0 and 17-7 to teams that were closer to average than elite.

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No pissing contest needed.
Useful information however Green Bay and Minnesota do not pass the "eye" test.
They are two perennial "shaky" teams.
KC does start slow but they run like a steam roller once they get started.

SammyBlueCat said:

No pissing contest needed.
Useful information however Green Bay and Minnesota do not pass the "eye" test.
They are two perennial "shaky" teams.
KC does start slow but they run like a steam roller once they get started.

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I can respect that opinion. The 49ers two biggest tests were the Saints and Seahawks, and they avoided both. The Chiefs two biggest tests were the Ravens and Patriots, and they avoided both.

SammyBlueCat said:

SF beat Minnesota and Green Bay

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Minnesota and GB are better than Houston and Tennesee, who were the 4th and 6ths seeds respectively

SammyBlueCat said:

No pissing contest needed.
Useful information however Green Bay and Minnesota do not pass the "eye" test.
They are two perennial "shaky" teams.
KC does start slow but they run like a steam roller once they get started.

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KC cant fall behind SF like they did their two previous games...

Am I the only one that is dumbfounded that KC is favored? I don't gamble and don't claim to be an expert on football, but from my vantage point the 49ers are clearly the better team.

TheAdultintheRoom said:

Am I the only one that is dumbfounded that KC is favored? I don't gamble and don't claim to be an expert on football, but from my vantage point the 49ers are clearly the better team.

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Yeah, think it should 49ers by 3. Chiefs were able to stop Henry and kudos for that. Lets see if they can also stop the shiftier rbs the 9ers have as well as the best TE in the game. Kittle really improved his blocking game this year and I think that is going to be the difference. I know they stopped Henry but 49ers imo are gonna put 180+ on the ground on them.

TheAdultintheRoom said:

Am I the only one that is dumbfounded that KC is favored?

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Heavy public action on the shiny team is nothing new. I’m patiently waiting for it to go up even more.

patsinthesnow said:

Regarding the man v. zone scheme the chargers have played Mahomes 4 times:

213.75 yards per game
62.71 comp pct
7.2 ypa (career average 8.6)
8 TDs
2 INTs
100.1 passer rating
30.3 PPG

They run the most cover 3 in the NFL - a scheme designed to limit the big play but can be shredded underneath through the short passing game. Brady's owned this scheme for years including multiple superbowls & the chargers themselves.

A cover 3 defense with an elite pass rush is an interesting matchup for Mahomes. He will need to be patient & take what the D gives them - Reid as well. He hasn't shredded his division rival that runs an inferior version to this point either. The only QB to really torch the 49ers this season is Brees which makes sense.

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Generally though it’s so much more about the actual players and not as simple as merely “man or zone”. Teams that have a lot of great defensive players and are maximizing their skills in the system is going to be a tough defense to score against. Coaches are going to adapt the scheme based on opponent. Sounds like the 49ers have an ideal concept of not allowing over the top stuff, considering KC is a lightning strike team.

The Patriots were known to shred zone defenses, but it was always more about the actual talent. The Ravens defense that gave the Patriots problems in the postseason played heavy zone. The Jets used a heavy zone concept in the 2010 playoff upset. The Seahawks Legion of Boom was a zone team that was a quarterback’s nightmare, and Brady lost to them twice and struggled to win the chess match in SB49. That Falcons team (Quinn left Seattle for Atlanta) that built a 28-3 lead completely dominated the Patriots in the first half with a zone scheme, and even during the comeback it took a lot of chipping away and very small windows to move the ball.

Mahomes and his weapons are going to abuse that defense.

condon84 said:

Mahomes and his weapons are going to abuse that defense.

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They better because they’ll get blown out if they don’t.

TheAdultintheRoom said:

Am I the only one that is dumbfounded that KC is favored? I don't gamble and don't claim to be an expert on football, but from my vantage point the 49ers are clearly the better team.

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This reminds me so much of the 2009 Colts/Saints Superbowl when the Colts were favored going into the game! The Saints were clearly leaps and bounds the best team in the league that year!

SammyBlueCat said:

No pissing contest needed.
Useful information however Green Bay and Minnesota do not pass the "eye" test.
They are two perennial "shaky" teams.
KC does start slow but they run like a steam roller once they get started.

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I don’t think either team had a tough road at all. Minnesota and gb imo benefitted from weak schedules this year and never struck me as tough outs. kc caught a break with Baltimore pissing themselves (not to involve the word piss again).

the nfc looked like it was going to be a dogfight early on but brees turned ancient again in a playoff game, Seattle got hammered with injuries, and both nfc east ‘contenders’ ended up being piss (not intentional, k maybe ) poor.

Wow most people are actually picking against Andy Reid with a fast food buffet at the white house on the line? Thats like telling me if I hit a milestone at my job I get Adrianna Lima for a night. Go with the Chiefs.

TommyBrady12 said:

Patrick Mahomes takes heat on social media after George Zimmerman tweets resurface

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Christ he was 18years old and it’s not like anything he said was racist. Everyone felt like they had to give an opinion on the case. I am actually impressed with his intelligence and reasoning, and then he even comes backs around and kind of reassess his own initial perspective. The reaction is what’s hilarious. A bunch of people who didn’t actually read the entire exchange are up in arms about a guy who didn’t really know all the facts of the case, when he was a 18 year old!

I only care for halftime show!!
Hoping for a maldrobe malfunction!!
Let's go Shakira!!!

I personally think 49ers will win, but I'm simming the Super Bowl on Madden and Niners are getting their ass beat. 17-0 in the 2nd quarter. My Madden is usually right. Since 2014, it's gotten almost every Super Bowl winner correct, except the Pats-Eagles one. And while it wasn't a SB game, it also predicted us losing to the Titans in the playoffs.

Edit: My sim had Chiefs winning 27-14.