La Canfora: Brady unlikely to sign extension, will test free agency

Thanks.

So, Miguel starts with Brady gone, includes adjustments, LTBE incentives, and has us at $30M. This is indeed a good place to start as we consider 2020.

primetime said:

Miguel has them at $30m. OTC doesn't account for LTBE incentives and has the lesser Brady cap hit listed. The wild card is Brady's current cap hit since it halves if he's on the roster in 2020 and the rest gets pushed into 2021, but ultimately that money's probably going to be tied up in the quarterback position one way or the other (i.e. if Brady signs an extension, it probably gets taken into account in the extension).

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mgteich said:

Thanks.

So, Miguel starts with Brady gone, includes adjustments, LTBE incentives, and has us at $30M. This is indeed a good place to start as we consider 2020.

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Yeah. If Brady comes back, it's $36.75m less whatever Brady's number is for this year (with an additional $6.75m hit the following season, which is fine because a new CBA is likely to see a big cap bump). Think it's reasonable to expect the Patriots will have about $30m to play with in free agency after cuts and restructures regardless of quarterback situation (and more if you go with Stidham and a cheaper veteran), which is enough to fill some holes reliably - whether returning your own guys or bringing in outside help - and others more shakily. But isn't that the way it always goes?

mgteich said:

Please tell me how Gronk is going to undo the effects of all of his concussions between now and September.

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I don't know. Why don't you text Gronk? It's up to him on how his body feels.

Yes.

We have the "normal" number of key free agents and normal cap money.

For me, the differences are the huge holes at QB, TE and WR. With no Brady, we need a #1 QB, a #1WR and a #1 TE. That's a lot.

primetime said:

.But isn't that the way it always goes?

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mgteich said:

OK, so DI's answer to my question is that we have $47M of cap space available for the defense?

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No. Is there a reason why you're continuing with the deliberately silly response posts after we discussed this earlier this offseason? I thought we'd gotten past this.

mgteich said:

Yes.

We have the "normal" number of key free agents and normal cap money.

For me, the differences are the huge holes at QB, TE and WR. With no Brady, we need a #1 QB, a #1WR and a #1 TE. That's a lot.

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Tight end is tough because there simply aren't that many good ones in the league. Sometimes you get lucky and find a Darren Waller, which is what the Patriots were trying to do with Lacosse. To some degree, WR1 is a similar issue. Who do you consider a WR1 - does it mean getting Beckham? Does 32 year old AJ Green suffice? How about breaking the bank for someone as mercurial as Amari Cooper? Or are you okay with Robby Anderson and Danny Amendola?

There is this, which would free up a lot of cap space. Brown's grievance seems more likely to be resolved in his favor, while I'm not sure about Hernandez:

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

I am a headhunter and often relocate people for new jobs. I would never be certain, or really close to certain, that someone is going to leave their long-time home and employer, even for a much better offer. Brady is human like everyone else, and a strong emotional, second-guessing, almost paralyzing fear will emerge if he does indeed decide that rationally it is the best decision to play somewhere else. I still think he is likely to leave NE, but this is a factor to be considered. As much as people try to say it isn’t an emotional decision, it often is, and those emotions don’t kick until the reality hits.

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I agree that there's going to be a moment of doubt, but Brady didn't get where he is by being indecisive. He already knows what he has to do, and if I pick someone to NOT hesitate at the last second, it'd probably be TB12

That said, i expect the Patriots to at least make an offer for him after he tests FA waters. They know what price they want to bring him back for. So there's still a way back even if he declares for FA, which I think he's definitely going to do at this point.

I for one would love to have him end his career here and transition right into coaching. I think he'd make a brilliant OC. But that's probably a pipe dream.

mgteich said:

OK, I'll say it. Your proposed WR/QB combination would be one of the worst in the NFL, even after adding Sanu or a replacement.

Stidham
Edelman
Harry
Meyers

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Okay, say it. I don't disagree at the distinct possibility that you're correct - I'm just telling you what wouldn't surprise me.

I don't think Harry will bust, at all. On a different team/QB/system, he'd be one of the guys we'd complain about not drafting.

I think Meyers will stick around somewhere for a while as a #3/4. He's not a premer receiver, but he's not horrible, either.

I think Edelman is on borrowed time. He's one of my all-time favorites - I have a grandson named after him. The injuries will continue to pile up (note that in my "gut" post, I said the Chargers should go and overpay for him if it makes Brady happy - I also think that Edelman extends his career if he's not the 15-target in traffic guy every damned week.

I think Sanu is better than he showed, but in his prime was never better than a #2. I still hope the Pats can somehow get at least a year or two of Manny Sanders, which is very unlikely.

The Pats need a #1 unless Harry can get there, and he's nowhere near that now. They might want to draft high on WR again this year.

I was a Dorsett rooter (I like the guy), but he's invisible way too often. I don't see him back.

And I think a big part of the problems with all of this was Brady's mindset. EP is a well-oiled machine with the right parts - those right parts don't include rookies. Otherwise it's a disaster. This year was a disaster.

Even if Brady leaves and the upgrades at WR are minimal, I still expect the Pats to compete for a playoff spot next year. Let me put it this way: the OL will be better/as good simiply by having Andrews back, Mason healthy, Cannon healthier, and, hopefully, Cajuste and Froholdt in as depth at least (plus, i expect at least one good addition if they lose Thuney).

The Defense probably won't have the year they had this year, of course, but they'll still be good (killed me to watch Pennell playing really well in KC's front on Sunday, by the way). And I'm not sure how much the Stidham/WRs next year will be a downgrade from this year's utter disaster. Face it, this year, that offense just sucked.

mgteich said:

OK, so DI's answer to my question is that we have $47M of cap space available for the defense?

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I just wanted to follow this up with a point that you, yourself, made in a thread you started:

mgteich said:

Obviously, anything can happen in the last 2 weeks in March. Also, we have injury issues: Andrews, Cannon, and Develin.

Belichick likes to try to extend a few low level players, as camp competition and insurance. My list includes:

Ferentz (IMO, we're not paying for Karras unless he is replacing Andrews)
Newhouse (hopefully, he can be cut later, but we need 2-4 OT's)
Eluemunor (RFA)
Roberts (especially if Develin isn't coming back)
Folk

I think that there are Belichick's kind of end of the year very low cost contract extensions.

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So, using your logic, low level players aren't getting big money, since we're talking camp competition and insurance, and Karras isn't going to be seeing any pay increase unless he's the starter. That means that we're talking about minimal cap hits for Ferentz and Robert (and minimal/reasonable numbers for Newhouse and Elueunor), and a possible cap savings with any Karras replacement. And, if they're keeping Folk, he's not getting the kind of money that Gost has been getting.

So that entire group is relatively small money, according to your logic, which is what I've been saying. And, that leaves us where I've been saying:

Van Noy - likely the only "big ticket" defensive signing, if he's brought back
Collins - likely gone, as he's reportedly going to chase the dollars again
McCourty - likely cheaper, and certainly not significantly more expensive, than he's been in recent years
Butler (RFA) - number known and determined by tender level, unless a different agreement is worked out.
Shelton - the potential issue. It's folly to risk giving him big money, given his history (and his play was better but overrated this past year), but we don't know the market right now, and it only takes one idiot to screw things up for everyone

I believe that the OL "addition" will be Karras.

I certainly hope that Andrews, Cannon and Cajuste are back healthy. I would consider that to be a longshot.

50-yard-line said:

.
Let me put it this way: the OL will be better/as good simiply by having Andrews back, Mason healthy, Cannon healthier, and, hopefully, Cajuste and Froholdt in as depth at least (plus, i expect at least one good addition if they lose Thuney).

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mgteich said:

I believe that the OL "addition" will be Karras.

I certainly hope that Andrews, Cannon and Cajuste are back healthy. I would consider that to be a longshot.

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Why do you consider that a long shot? Which player(s) lead(s) you to that position? Andrews is confident that he'll be back, for example.

"I should have a bunch of doctors’ appointments here in February, and get all that cleared up and be good to go next year," Andrews said during a Patriots Charitable Foundation event in Providence, R.I., via ESPN's Mike Reiss.

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Patriots' David Andrews optimistic about playing in 2020

Cajuste will have had more than a full calendar year to recover from his injury.

Asked whether the team views this season as a de facto redshirt year for Cajuste, Scarnecchia replied: “That’s probably a pretty good way of saying it.”

“He’s probably not ready to do anything and probably won’t be until next year,” the coach added.

Cajuste, whom the Patriots selected in the third round out of West Virginia, missed all of spring practice and training camp after undergoing surgery in March to repair a torn quad. Players on the reserve/NFI list are eligible to return after Week 6, but the team evidently does not intend to activate the 23-year-old.

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Patriots Not Planning For Rookie Tackle Yodny Cajuste To Play This Season

Cannon's contract doesn't really make for him being a good cut, cap-wise, until the 2021 season.

Marcus Cannon Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

I can see how someone might question each of the players, but I'm curious as to what makes you come up with the "long shot" analysis.

TommyBrady12 said:

I know, but I would go with a youth movement. We're not winning the SB with Stidham next year anyway.

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Can't let Sanu or Harry be the #1 dude

TommyBrady12 said:

I know, but I would go with a youth movement. We're not winning the SB with Stidham next year anyway.

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If Brady returns, expect the guy who wears #15 to get buried on the depth chart Chad Jackson style circa 2007. Pats would bring in veterans that Brady would turn to first. And Edelman is the only guy he trusts.

I’ve said it before, but I guarantee you the young WR’s want to see Brady walk.

TheRainMaker said:

If Brady returns, expect the guy who wears #15 to get buried on the depth chart Chad Jackson style circa 2007. Pats would bring in veterans that Brady would turn to first. And Edelman is the only guy he trusts.

I’ve said it before, but I guarantee you the young WR’s want to see Brady walk.

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Would that be the young WR who struggles to get open and couldn't remember his routes, or the young WR who struggles to get open and struggled catching the 50/50 balls he was supposed to excel at catching?

Deus Irae said:

Would that be the young WR who struggles to get open and couldn't remember his routes, or the young WR who struggles to get open and struggled catching the 50/50 balls he was supposed to excel at catching?

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Both. It’s a clean slate with a new QB.

TheRainMaker said:

Both. It’s a clean slate with a new QB.

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I'm still trying to wrap my head around the insanity of people who think that's a good idea. Going with lousy receivers and a much lesser QB has somehow gained traction.

I hope it's not something in the water supply.


After I figure that out, I'll start working on the people who think they know the mental ponderings of a rookie NFL players they've never met.

It's not unreasonable to believe Harry and Meyers will amount to something in the NFL, and perhaps even be good or great players. Both clearly have talent, and there is a certain amount riding on that talent swimming rather than sinking.

It is, however, unreasonable to believe it is a good idea to build a team around an assumption that they will be good or great players based off the relative nothing they showed last year. At best you can assume that what you saw is what you'll get, and Harry is a Patterson-level gadget guy, a useful player without question but not one who's used on every snap, and that Meyers is a back of the roster type who might be useful in ways that other back of the roster receivers from Dedric Ward to Brian Tyms have been in the past.

Do you hope for and to some degree count on their improvement? Certainly, that's a roll of the dice you always make. The Patriots did it with Dorsett, for example. But you can't assume they'll be more than that.

Deus Irae said:

I'm still trying to wrap my head around the insanity of people who think that's a good idea. Going with lousy receivers and a much lesser QB has somehow gained traction.

I hope it's not something in the water supply.


After I figure that out, I'll start working on the people who think they know the mental ponderings of a rookie NFL players they've never met.

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I don't see anyone saying it's a good idea, but I wouldn't bet against that being precisely the situation.

I also don't think it's a stretch to think that the rookies were playing on eggshells, given Brady's public statements and on-field antics, and given that, that they might welcome a chance at actually having balls thrown their way.

50-yard-line said:

I also don't think it's a stretch to think that the rookies were playing on eggshells, given Brady's public statements and on-field antics, and given that, that they might welcome a chance at actually having balls thrown their way.

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Of course it's a stretch. We've got reports out there that it wasn't even Brady yelling at them in the offseason, because the coaches wanted to control that. In fact, according to reports, that's one of the reasons for Brady's comments about just being an employee, not a coach.