The problem with making a big splash in FA signing

PP2 · Jan 9, 2020

Here's the glaring problem I see, if BB tries to make a big splash in FA signing, on either side of the ball.

Imagine you are a big name UFA. You priority is going to be long term security and money. If New England signs Brady to an one or two year contract and comes calling for you, the very first thing on your mind is going to be: how long does Brady play? Is it just one year? Two? How close to the cliff is he?

Would you want to take a risk and sign with New England for one good year and potentially a transition year where everything becomes mediocre? Or would you go somewhere where the QB has his whole future ahead of him?

If I were BB, I would focus on getting solid assets via trades or the draft (!). I wouldn't be expecting too much via FA.

WinstonSmith · Jan 9, 2020

It's a good point, Brady's age already scared off one high profile receiver, but I think many FA's will pick the team where the money and personal fit is right. Some folks will be scared off, others won't.

Ring 6 · Jan 9, 2020

PP2 said:
Here's the glaring problem I see, if BB tries to make a big splash in FA signing, on either side of the ball.

Imagine you are a big name UFA. You priority is going to be long term security and money. If New England signs Brady to an one or two year contract and comes calling for you, the very first thing on your mind is going to be: how long does Brady play? Is it just one year? Two? How close to the cliff is he?

Would you want to take a risk and sign with New England for one good year and potentially a transition year where everything becomes mediocre? Or would you go somewhere where the QB has his whole future ahead of him?

If I were BB, I would focus on getting solid assets via trades or the draft (!). I wouldn't be expecting too much via FA.

I understand the logic of your argument but in reality if free agents acted like that only the teams with the best and most stable QBs would sign free agents and bad teams would never sign any.

Tunescribe · Jan 9, 2020

Everyone has their whole future ahead of them.

Sicilian · Jan 9, 2020

It may be a factor for some players, but I doubt it's the largest factor for most of them. In the case of a receiver (who would be impacted the most by having or not having Brady), one of the biggest reasons they would want to play with Brady is to boost their value for future contracts. If they're offered a big enough deal with good guarantees, that factor is mitigated.

I think the bigger reason to try to find short term deals, trades, and really focus on nailing the draft, is to prepare the team for what happens after Brady (whether that be this year, or one of the next few). You want young, cheap players and overall team flexibility.

PatsFan2 · Jan 9, 2020

PP2 said:
Here's the glaring problem I see, if BB tries to make a big splash in FA signing, on either side of the ball.

Imagine you are a big name UFA. You priority is going to be long term security and money. If New England signs Brady to an one or two year contract and comes calling for you, the very first thing on your mind is going to be: how long does Brady play? Is it just one year? Two? How close to the cliff is he?

Would you want to take a risk and sign with New England for one good year and potentially a transition year where everything becomes mediocre? Or would you go somewhere where the QB has his whole future ahead of him?

If I were BB, I would focus on getting solid assets via trades or the draft (!). I wouldn't be expecting too much via FA.

Logical thinking that is why I think it's best for Brady to move on if we are going to do things the Patriots way. Remember that was one of the reasons why Adam Humphries chose the Titans over us last year. Brady is definitely closer to that cliff now he didn't play particularly well either I am sure they are plays he would like back. That said they are Teams out there with Talent who would love to have him even for two years and they wouldn't have problem giving him a three year Deal... the Patriots would though.

PatsFan2 · Jan 9, 2020

If the Patriots could get a combo or a triplet of say a AJ Green - Emmanuel Sanders and a Randall Cobb in any order... Brady would be happy. Wildcard would be a Robby Anderson the pup of the bunch that would give us some weapons on Offense. The trio of Green - Sanders and Cobb have many miles on their tires and are in the twilight of their careers like Brady. I don't think any would break any banks at this point.

patsrj · Jan 9, 2020

BB doesnt make a lot of big splashes in FA,maybe Gilmore was the last one.
I only see a big name coming here via trade, taking advantage of a gm/coach change. Even that isnt simple given our cap situation

Ring 6 · Jan 9, 2020

PatsFan2 said:
If the Patriots could get a combo or a triplet of say a AJ Green - Emmanuel Sanders and a Randall Cobb in any order... Brady would be happy. Wildcard would be a Robby Anderson the pup of the bunch that would give us some weapons on Offense. The trio of Green - Sanders and Cobb have many miles on their tires and are in the twilight of their careers like Brady. I don't think any would break any banks at this point.

Hooper and a blocking TE and draft a move te
Edelman
Wr1 FA (for about the same first year cap hit as the 6 mill we save by cutting sanu)
Harry
2 of the prove it type guys,
draft a wr,
Meyers
done.

patsinthesnow · Jan 9, 2020

I get the sentiment but usually the $ does the talking:

Cole Beasley signed with 2nd year Josh Allen at QB
John Brown signed with 2nd year Josh Allen at QB
Jamison Crowder signed with 2nd year Sam Darnold at QB
Adam Humphries signed with Marcus Mariota at QB
Golden Tate signed with Eli Manning & a rookie at QB
Tyrell Williams signed with Derek Carr at QB
Devante Parker just signed with Fitzpatrick & a rookie at QB

PatsFan2 · Jan 9, 2020

patsinthesnow said:
I get the sentiment but usually the $ does the talking:

Cole Beasley signed with 2nd year Josh Allen at QB

John Brown signed with 2nd year Josh Allen at QB

Jamison Crowder signed with 2nd year Sam Darnold at QB

Adam Humphries signed with Marcus Mariota at QB

Golden Tate signed with Eli Manning & a rookie at QB

Tyrell Williams signed with Derek Carr at QB

Devante Parker just signed with Fitzpatrick & a rookie at QB

Yeah that's what I'm afraid of we have to be very aggressive outbidding Teams we can't sit back early on in FA. A lot of Teams have $$$$$$ to burn in FA unlike us.

PatsFan2 · Jan 9, 2020

Ring 6 said:
Hooper and a blocking TE and draft a move te
Edelman
Wr1 FA (for about the same first year cap hit as the 6 mill we save by cutting sanu)
Harry
2 of the prove it type guys,
draft a wr,
Meyers
done.

I know he had a HOFer their most times but nobody can tell me that Brady didn't miss production from the TE position. A Position he has made a career throwing to...IF we add a guy like Hooper and add another via the Draft I think Brady would stay.

Palm Beach Pats Fan · Jan 9, 2020

PatsFan2 said:
Remember that was one of the reasons why Adam Humphries chose the Titans over us last year.

You are saying that he bought into the long-term upside of one Marcus Mariota? Sure, he lucked into Tannehill, who will be a FA, but it seems that the QB stability issue was a mirage.

Ring 6 · Jan 9, 2020

PatsFan2 said:
Yeah that's what I'm afraid of we have to be very aggressive outbidding we can't sit back early on in FA. A lot of Teams have $$$$$$ to burn in FA unlike us.

We have a 6 mill 1st year cap hit freed up by cutting sanu. Michael Thomas cap hit this year was 6.1. Humphries was 5.0

Ring 6 · Jan 9, 2020

PatsFan2 said:
I know he had a HOFer their most times but nobody can tell me that Brady didn't miss production from the TE position. A Position he has made a career throwing to...IF we add a guy like Hooper and add another via the Draft I think Brady would stay.

I’ve posted before Belichick reaction to a down year has always been to adjust both the scheme and the personnel on the struggling side of the ball.
Returning to a 2 TE base could be part of it. That will mean a big expenditure on that position(s)

PatsFan2 · Jan 9, 2020

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:
You are saying that he bought into the long-term upside of one Marcus Mariota? Sure, he lucked into Tannehill, who will be a FA, but it seems that the QB stability issue was a mirage.

I told someone that Tanne would be starting soon so said so done Vrabel benched Mariota's @ss smart move for that franchise. They even knocked us out with Tanne at the helm good pick up by the Titans. Mariota should be cheap in FA I wonder if he learned anything??

PatsFan2 · Jan 9, 2020

Ring 6 said:
I’ve posted before Belichick reaction to a down year has always been to adjust both the scheme and the personnel on the struggling side of the ball.
Returning to a 2 TE base could be part of it. That will mean a big expenditure on that position(s)

I think Emmanuel Sanders and AJ Green would be Great pick ups for a Brady lead Team. AJ Green was shut down last year should be healthy by TC 2020.

XLIX · Jan 9, 2020

PP2 said:
If I were BB, I would focus on getting solid assets via trades or the draft (!). I wouldn't be expecting too much via FA.

It isn't an either-or situation. They could make some significant free agent signings as well as gain solid assets in the draft.

qbno12 · Jan 9, 2020

I am not sure what his contract situation is but any chance we can bring back Amendola?

skinnydog · Jan 9, 2020

PatsFan2 said:
Logical thinking that is why I think it's best for Brady to move on if we are going to do things the Patriots way. Remember that was one of the reasons why Adam Humphries chose the Titans over us last year. Brady is definitely closer to that cliff now he didn't play particularly well either I am sure they are plays he would like back. That said they are Teams out there with Talent who would love to have him even for two years and they wouldn't have problem giving him a three year Deal... the Patriots would though.

My understanding is that Humphries "committed" to the Titans during the legal tampering period and then the Patriots made a higher offer after he hade already told the Titans he was signing with them. Humphries considered it a matter of keeping his word and signed the Titan's offer. The part about thinking Brady is to old is likely spin.

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