Pro Football Ref has a metric called AV, or Approximate Value, a score which they assign to every player every season. While not perfect, it's a decent way to measure who is getting playing time and production. They just input everyone's AV for the 2019 regular season. I've used this score to see what teams have best been able to extract value out of the draft this past decade.
What I've done is copy every team's drafts from the last 10 years, from 2010 to 2019, into a spreadsheet and summed up the cumulative Career AV (CarAV) drafted from every team in that timespan, and ranked them against each other. My challenge to the board is to guess three things:
I'll leave this open for a bit to give anyone interested some time to think about it, and post the answers before next week's games.
Some quirks you should consider:
This will favor teams that excelled early in the decade more than later in the decade, as those players have accumulated stats for longer. Repeating these calculations with the scores five years for now would change many of the rankings in favor of the teams who have drafted well more recently.
Players who change teams accumulate value for the team that drafted him, not the team that he moved onto. Chandler Jones accumulated value for the Patriots in 2019, and Kyle Van Noy accumulated value for the Lions.
Special Teams aces seem to be completely ignored by this metric. Matthew Slater has a Career AV of 4, which is the same as Ryan Mallett. Joe Cardona gets 1 point a year. Kickers and Punters do get some value. Justin Tucker has gotten up to 8 points in a season. For perspective, in Tom Brady's best year he got 24 points in 2007. This year Brady got 12, which was twice what Sam Darnold got.
This is a completely regular season stat. Playoff heroics mean nothing.
ANOTHER QUIRK: This is simply adding all players' values together. Thus, there is no adjustment for a team which has drafted 100 players compared to a team that has drafted 70 players in the same time span.
Given all that, what would your guesses be and why? And guesses only. I don't want anyone repeating these calculations and posting with actual knowledge before the reveal.
What I've done is copy every team's drafts from the last 10 years, from 2010 to 2019, into a spreadsheet and summed up the cumulative Career AV (CarAV) drafted from every team in that timespan, and ranked them against each other. My challenge to the board is to guess three things:
- Which team has drafted the most CarAV?
- Which team has drafted the least?
- Where are the Patriots ranked?
I'll leave this open for a bit to give anyone interested some time to think about it, and post the answers before next week's games.
Some quirks you should consider:
This will favor teams that excelled early in the decade more than later in the decade, as those players have accumulated stats for longer. Repeating these calculations with the scores five years for now would change many of the rankings in favor of the teams who have drafted well more recently.
Players who change teams accumulate value for the team that drafted him, not the team that he moved onto. Chandler Jones accumulated value for the Patriots in 2019, and Kyle Van Noy accumulated value for the Lions.
Special Teams aces seem to be completely ignored by this metric. Matthew Slater has a Career AV of 4, which is the same as Ryan Mallett. Joe Cardona gets 1 point a year. Kickers and Punters do get some value. Justin Tucker has gotten up to 8 points in a season. For perspective, in Tom Brady's best year he got 24 points in 2007. This year Brady got 12, which was twice what Sam Darnold got.
This is a completely regular season stat. Playoff heroics mean nothing.
ANOTHER QUIRK: This is simply adding all players' values together. Thus, there is no adjustment for a team which has drafted 100 players compared to a team that has drafted 70 players in the same time span.
Given all that, what would your guesses be and why? And guesses only. I don't want anyone repeating these calculations and posting with actual knowledge before the reveal.
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