Money and cap considerations: another year of Brady or ... ?

Tunescribe · Jan 3, 2020

luuked said:
The issue with all this is that the decision on Brady has to be made long, long before anyone can evaluate how much of a "jump" Stidham has made into year 2. I don't think you can just go on projections with the most important position on your team.

Granted we don't know how Stidham looks in practice as of right now and maybe he has already made a substantial jump from where he was in September.

No matter from which angle you approach the QB situation you will either have to make a leap of faith either about Brady or about Stidham. Guess it just depends what makes you feel more comfortable.

In other words there is no way to be comfortable moving on from the greatest quarterback of all time, it's all calculated risk. You might have missed it but there have been reports Stidham is lighting it up in practice with the first unit on Brady's rest days, earning BB's praises.

p8ryts · Jan 3, 2020

ohiopatsfan said:
At least with the Browns, BB erred on the side of cutting a franchise QB (Bernie Kosar) a year too early rather than a year too late. I don't know what the dead cap hit would be if TB were cut or traded, but that will figure into the decision.

I'm confident Bill will make the "best decision for the team".

RobertWeathers · Jan 3, 2020

WARNING: Highly speculative post full of conjecture and BS

As of right now it's projected the NEP will have ~$49m in cap space entering March.

When I look at the attached link, If BB is so inclined, I see the opportunity to do some serious slashing/restructuring.

I'm not advocating, but I am noticing...

High- $11.3m hit. $2.5m remaining if cut. $9m savings
Cannon- $8.9m hit. $3.7m remaining. $5m savings
Sanu- $6m if cut. I'm guessing they'll restructure. Maybe a $3m savings
Chung- $5.8. $3.8 remaining. $2m savings
Jason- $5.5m hit. $1.7mm remaining. $3.8m savings
Harmon- $5.5m. $1.2m remaining. $4m savings
Guy- $5m. $1.2m remaining. $3.8m in savings
Gost- $4.9m. $1.4m remaining $3.5m savings
White- $4.5m. $1m. $3.5m savings
Rex- $3.9 hit. $1m remaining. $2.9 savings
Andrews- $3.8m. $400k. $2.5m savings
Simon- $1.8m savings
Bolden- $1.5m savings
Brooks - $1.5m savings

If everyone is cut (which I am not advocating) that is another ~$40m in cap savings.

Figure they'll be some restructuring deals for a few (White?).

My guess is they'll add an additional $25m in cap space.

If we believe Tom has one more solid year left, that is how they pay for him AND add a couple of key pieces to the offense and maybe the D.

New England Patriots 2020 Salary Cap

p8ryts · Jan 3, 2020

PatsDeb said:
I agree that this year was a disservice to Brady, but that doesn't mean he won't be back. There are other years where things didn't click and the team re-loaded, which is what they have to do this off-season, particularly at TE. I want Brady back and I hope the team and some fans come to their senses and see that there is no better option out there. He's still the GOAT, and he's still the best QB out there for the Pats, whether his skills have diminished somewhat or not (a real question as injuries and other deficiencies discussed ad nauseum have contributed to the disappointment this year, which year isn't even over yet). By the same token, I would think long & hard if I was Brady about going elsewhere as who wants to start over at age 43 in a new facility, with a new system with all new folks? In both cases, the devil you know is better than the one you don't. I hope everyone involved can see that, but everyone seems intent on running Brady out of town, which is incredible to me.

"Disservice to Brady"? Bill just tries to build the best team he can. Sometimes he does it better than others. Even Bill is not perfect, just closer to it than most people. I don't know what Bill thinks about Brady. I'm certain he respects him for all he has done but if he thinks its time to move on for the "good of the team" I support 100%.

p8ryts · Jan 3, 2020

robertweathers said:
WARNING: Highly speculative post full of conjecture and BS

As of right now it's projected the NEP will have ~$49m in cap space entering March.

When I look at the attached link, If BB is so inclined, I see the opportunity to do some serious slashing/restructuring.

I'm not advocating, but I am noticing...

High- $11.3m hit. $2.5m remaining if cut. $9m savings
Cannon- $8.9m hit. $3.7m remaining. $5m savings
Sanu- $6m if cut. I'm guessing they'll restructure. Maybe a $3m savings
Chung- $5.8. $3.8 remaining. $2m savings
Jason- $5.5m hit. $1.7mm remaining. $3.8m savings
Harmon- $5.5m. $1.2m remaining. $4m savings
Guy- $5m. $1.2m remaining. $3.8m in savings
Gost- $4.9m. $1.4m remaining $3.5m savings
White- $4.5m. $1m. $3.5m savings
Rex- $3.9 hit. $1m remaining. $2.9 savings
Andrews- $3.8m. $400k. $2.5m savings
Simon- $1.8m savings
Bolden- $1.5m savings
Brooks - $1.5m savings

If everyone is cut (which I am not advocating) that is another ~$40m in cap savings.

Figure they'll be some restructuring deals for a few (White?).

My guess is they'll add an additional $25m in cap space.

If we believe Tom has one more solid year left, that is how they pay for him AND add a couple of key pieces to the offense and maybe the D.

New England Patriots 2020 Salary Cap

You have to love a highly speculative post loaded with conjecture and BS. Keep them coming. I see Cannon, Chung, Jason, Devon, Harmon, Gost as endangered species. Love them all but injuries and age are factors with many of them. I've always thought Devon was over payed, consistent but not great. Bill will bring in a cheaper kicker unless Gost gets reasonable. Don't mess with the RB depth, Simon is one of my absolute favorites. Just makes plays. Undecided on High, but if Van Noy and Collins and Roberts leave, we would need him . This is fun!

RobertWeathers · Jan 3, 2020

p8ryts said:
You have to love a highly speculative post loaded with conjecture and BS. Keep them coming. I see Cannon, Chung, Jason, Devon, Harmon, Gost as endangered species. Love them all but injuries and age are factors with many of them. I've always thought Devon was over payed, consistent but not great. Bill will bring in a cheaper kicker unless Gost gets reasonable. Don't mess with the RB depth, Simon is one of my absolute favorites. Just makes plays. Undecided on High, but if Van Noy and Collins and Roberts leave, we would need him . This is fun!

Speculation is what we do here

Tunescribe · Jan 3, 2020

robertweathers said:
WARNING: Highly speculative post full of conjecture and BS

As of right now it's projected the NEP will have ~$49m in cap space entering March.

When I look at the attached link, If BB is so inclined, I see the opportunity to do some serious slashing/restructuring.

I'm not advocating, but I am noticing...

High- $11.3m hit. $2.5m remaining if cut. $9m savings
Cannon- $8.9m hit. $3.7m remaining. $5m savings
Sanu- $6m if cut. I'm guessing they'll restructure. Maybe a $3m savings
Chung- $5.8. $3.8 remaining. $2m savings
Jason- $5.5m hit. $1.7mm remaining. $3.8m savings
Harmon- $5.5m. $1.2m remaining. $4m savings
Guy- $5m. $1.2m remaining. $3.8m in savings
Gost- $4.9m. $1.4m remaining $3.5m savings
White- $4.5m. $1m. $3.5m savings
Rex- $3.9 hit. $1m remaining. $2.9 savings
Andrews- $3.8m. $400k. $2.5m savings
Simon- $1.8m savings
Bolden- $1.5m savings
Brooks - $1.5m savings

If everyone is cut (which I am not advocating) that is another ~$40m in cap savings.

Figure they'll be some restructuring deals for a few (White?).

My guess is they'll add an additional $25m in cap space.

If we believe Tom has one more solid year left, that is how they pay for him AND add a couple of key pieces to the offense and maybe the D.

New England Patriots 2020 Salary Cap

Even trimming a few of the more expensive defensive players would be problematic. Maybe you deleted it from this post or posted it earlier, but you mentioned younger guys on D picking up the slack next year, but quality depth is what has made the Pats defense so effective and must be maintained or they take a step back. With a diminishing Brady or a green Stidham, defense must remain a priority regardless. That's why I'm concerned about Brady's contract potentially impacting other roster decisions.

RobertWeathers · Jan 3, 2020

Tunescribe said:
Even trimming a few of the more expensive defensive players would be problematic. Maybe you deleted it from this post or posted it earlier, but you mentioned younger guys on D picking up the slack next year, but quality depth is what has made the Pats defense so effective and must be maintained or they take a step back. With a diminishing Brady or a green Stidham, defense must remain a priority regardless. That's why I'm concerned about Brady's contract potentially impacting other roster decisions.

100% agree.

Players like Harmon, Guy, Simon, Jason even Chung they should try to restructure. I don't suggest cutting them at all. Bring back Shelton for reasonable dollars.

DMC will be hard. KVN will be hard as I think both will get big 1st year $.

Hightower represents a significant savings if hes released but I don't see Bentley representing a stopgap solution. Additionally if KVN and Jamie walk they'll be void of any talent at LB. High has been pretty healthy these last two years but he'll be 30 next year. Tough age. To your point maybe they leave him alone or find a win-win extension which will keep him in the fold for a couple more years.

Chevrolet · Jan 3, 2020

robertweathers said:
100% agree.

Players like Harmon, Guy, Simon, Jason even Chung they should try to restructure. I don't suggest cutting them at all. Bring back Shelton for reasonable dollars.

DMC will be hard. KVN will be hard as I think both will get big 1st year $.

Hightower represents a significant savings if hes released but I don't see Bentley representing a stopgap solution. Additionally if KVN and Jamie walk they'll be void of any talent at LB. High has been pretty healthy these last two years but he'll be 30 next year. Tough age. To your point maybe they leave him alone or find a win-win extension which will keep him in the fold for a couple more years.

So true, especially Guy, Simon and Brooks who are still relatively young and experienced with ccap friendly contracts...not easy to find guys like that

As for Hightower, he has been fantastic and brings so much to the table when healthy. I would like to see him finish out his contract, especially if Brady leaves....they will need respected team leaders

jimnance · Jan 3, 2020

Brady's not going anywhere. Period.
He ends his career here, either after 2020 or beyond.
I know this for a fact.

fair catch fryar · Jan 3, 2020

Gwedd said:
I'd also be interested in what Jonathon Kraft's thoughts are on these issues, and his idea of where he wants to go with the team. Let's not forget that prosecutors down to Flor-i-duh have dropped any pretense to a misdemeanor plea and are now talking felony count(s) against Robert Kraft. They want a scalp, and his is the biggest, plus if they win they get bragging rights, yadda yadda yadda. What that means is that daddy might be going to prison, and that leaves Jonathon in charge. Maybe permanently.

So the owner's thoughts are really what will be driving the draft, resignings, trades, etc. Robert Kraft always wanted awinning program. Jonathon might be more interested in a tax write-off.

So yeah, it's time to contemplate the team post-Brady, and perhaps even post Belichick. But that has to start with what the owner wants. Sigh.

One thing I'm certain of is that Bob is never gonna see the inside of a prison. John taking over the team ASAP is very important though.

Gwedd · Jan 3, 2020

fair catch fryar said:
One thing I'm certain of is that Bob is never gonna see the inside of a prison. John taking over the team ASAP is very important though.

I agree. However, it's also important to have contingency plans, just in case. The sooner Jonathan takes over, the better, IMHO.

Biffins · Jan 3, 2020

robertweathers said:
WARNING: Highly speculative post full of conjecture and BS

As of right now it's projected the NEP will have ~$49m in cap space entering March.

When I look at the attached link, If BB is so inclined, I see the opportunity to do some serious slashing/restructuring.

I'm not advocating, but I am noticing...

High- $11.3m hit. $2.5m remaining if cut. $9m savings
Cannon- $8.9m hit. $3.7m remaining. $5m savings
Sanu- $6m if cut. I'm guessing they'll restructure. Maybe a $3m savings
Chung- $5.8. $3.8 remaining. $2m savings
Jason- $5.5m hit. $1.7mm remaining. $3.8m savings
Harmon- $5.5m. $1.2m remaining. $4m savings
Guy- $5m. $1.2m remaining. $3.8m in savings
Gost- $4.9m. $1.4m remaining $3.5m savings
White- $4.5m. $1m. $3.5m savings
Rex- $3.9 hit. $1m remaining. $2.9 savings
Andrews- $3.8m. $400k. $2.5m savings
Simon- $1.8m savings
Bolden- $1.5m savings
Brooks - $1.5m savings

If everyone is cut (which I am not advocating) that is another ~$40m in cap savings.

Figure they'll be some restructuring deals for a few (White?).

My guess is they'll add an additional $25m in cap space.

If we believe Tom has one more solid year left, that is how they pay for him AND add a couple of key pieces to the offense and maybe the D.

New England Patriots 2020 Salary Cap

Tom’s cap hit can roll. 13.5m is already being accounted for. He should get done with $25m with 13.5m of that rolling to ‘21 again. So out of the acailable $49m you only take $11m and still have $38m left.

RobertWeathers · Jan 3, 2020

Biffins said:
Tom’s cap hit can roll. 13.5m is already being accounted for. He should get done with $25m with 13.5m of that rolling to ‘21 again. So out of the acailable $49m you only take $11m and still have $38m left.

Correct but I do not support another $13.5m in 2021. Needs to be less than that for a 44 year old QB in 2021.

I'd like to see Tom's total cash payout in 2020 at $20m and a cap # of $25m ($13.5 + 11.5m) and have 2021 be a dead hit $8.5 in 2021.

So yes, of the ~$49m they'll only use $11.5 for 2020 and have ~$38m remaining. They absolutely need to beef up TE, maybe WR and get some playmaking youth sprinkled in the front 7

goheels22002 · Jan 3, 2020

Tunescribe said:
One post-Brady possibility.

I think that the emphasis should be on offensive line and tight end this off-season, regardless of what happens with TB12. Three OL positions need attention - Center, RT and LT/swing tackle. TE blocking/pass catching is an essential need going forward.

Whoever is under center will need time to work through their progressions.

Frankly, I think this is it for Brady. My read is that he'll retire after a sub-par season and little to suggest he'll be better next season.

bellsfangb · Jan 3, 2020

robertweathers said:
WARNING: Highly speculative post full of conjecture and BS

As of right now it's projected the NEP will have ~$49m in cap space entering March.

When I look at the attached link, If BB is so inclined, I see the opportunity to do some serious slashing/restructuring.

I'm not advocating, but I am noticing...

High- $11.3m hit. $2.5m remaining if cut. $9m savings
Cannon- $8.9m hit. $3.7m remaining. $5m savings
Sanu- $6m if cut. I'm guessing they'll restructure. Maybe a $3m savings
Chung- $5.8. $3.8 remaining. $2m savings
Jason- $5.5m hit. $1.7mm remaining. $3.8m savings
Harmon- $5.5m. $1.2m remaining. $4m savings
Guy- $5m. $1.2m remaining. $3.8m in savings
Gost- $4.9m. $1.4m remaining $3.5m savings
White- $4.5m. $1m. $3.5m savings
Rex- $3.9 hit. $1m remaining. $2.9 savings
Andrews- $3.8m. $400k. $2.5m savings
Simon- $1.8m savings
Bolden- $1.5m savings
Brooks - $1.5m savings

If everyone is cut (which I am not advocating) that is another ~$40m in cap savings.

Figure they'll be some restructuring deals for a few (White?).

My guess is they'll add an additional $25m in cap space.

If we believe Tom has one more solid year left, that is how they pay for him AND add a couple of key pieces to the offense and maybe the D.

New England Patriots 2020 Salary Cap

Speculation and conjecture aside, I think this is about right. Moving on from many, most of these guys allows BB to keep Brady for at least next year, and start re-tooling the roster, without a complete tear-down. It's time for an infusion of youth and with 12 draft picks, ~ around $75 million in cap space after cuts/restructures, the process can get underway.

Next year's schedule is very difficult (at least it appear's so today) and having Brady keeps the team competitive while simultaneously transitioning to a post-Brady future.

So to continue with the baseless speculation, I think Brady is back at something in the $25-30 million range (dead hit included) and BB moves on from the expensive vets and we wring our hands again next year wondering whether Brady comes back for 2021.

Biffins · Jan 3, 2020

robertweathers said:
Correct but I do not support another $13.5m in 2021. Needs to be less than that for a 44 year old QB in 2021.

I'd like to see Tom's total cash payout in 2020 at $20m and a cap # of $25m ($13.5 + 11.5m) and have 2021 be a dead hit $8.5 in 2021.

So yes, of the ~$49m they'll only use $11.5 for 2020 and have ~$38m remaining. They absolutely need to beef up TE, maybe WR and get some playmaking youth sprinkled in the front 7

Don’t agree. As long as we are planning to eventually replace Tom through the draft, we can eventually absorb a decent cap hit and still be competitive as the QB position cap hit won’t change much. Hence there’s no harm in rolling it forward.

QuantumMechanic · Jan 3, 2020

Biffins said:
Tom’s cap hit can roll. 13.5m is already being accounted for. He should get done with $25m with 13.5m of that rolling to ‘21 again. So out of the acailable $49m you only take $11m and still have $38m left.

No, it can’t roll. Extensions do not affect the amortization schedule of the original contract. If they extend Brady there will be $6.75mil dead money hits in 2020 and 2021 that cannot be avoided/moved/changed. Any cap hits from cash salary and new signing bonus in any extension will be in addition to those $6.75mil cap hits.

RobertWeathers · Jan 3, 2020

Biffins said:
Don’t agree. As long as we are planning to eventually replace Tom through the draft, we can eventually absorb a decent cap hit and still be competitive as the QB position cap hit won’t change much. Hence there’s no harm in rolling it forward.

Big assumption there dude. No question that is the team's preference but picking up the next franchise QB is not a sure thing. The could acquire an NFL ready Qb via trade or FA as well. Plus if the QB position is not a Pro Bowler, they may spend big bucks on the DE, DT, LB, etc.

What I do know is having $13.5m dead $ on a 44 year old QB is not a good biz decision.

PatsDeb · Jan 3, 2020

p8ryts said:
"Disservice to Brady"? Bill just tries to build the best team he can. Sometimes he does it better than others. Even Bill is not perfect, just closer to it than most people. I don't know what Bill thinks about Brady. I'm certain he respects him for all he has done but if he thinks its time to move on for the "good of the team" I support 100%.

I was responding to the "disservice to Brady" in the original poster's argument. I do think it was a disservice to Brady not to replace Gronk at all, but who knows if Gronk himself led the team down the primrose path of his possible return. He certainly did that to the fans. I would vehemently disagree with BB that it's time to move on from Brady for the good of the team, however.

Money and cap considerations: another year of Brady or ... ?

PatsFans.com Supporter

In the Starting Line-Up

Member of the Seattle 7 & Roadie for Metallica

In the Starting Line-Up

In the Starting Line-Up

Member of the Seattle 7 & Roadie for Metallica

PatsFans.com Supporter

Member of the Seattle 7 & Roadie for Metallica

Third String But Playing on Special Teams

PatsFans.com Supporter

In the Starting Line-Up

PatsFans.com Supporter

In the Starting Line-Up

Member of the Seattle 7 & Roadie for Metallica

PatsFans.com Supporter

Rookie

In the Starting Line-Up

Burn it all down!

Member of the Seattle 7 & Roadie for Metallica

PatsFans.com Supporter

Similar threads