I'm Finally Convinced: This is Brady's Last Year in New England

TommyD4207 · Dec 27, 2019

TommyBrady12 said:
If he elevates his play in the playoffs, which is what he does, and wins another SB, he's absolutely worth that money

2 TD, 3 INT, 85,8 rating (worst ever in a Super Bowl season) in last year's playoffs.

Undoubtedly, he had a handful of really clutch throws at important times (and some huge catches on the other end) - but the defense, Sony Michel, and the offensive line is the reason for that run last year. Brady was a piece of that, but he certainly wasn't the undisputed best player on the field, as he was in 14, 16, and 17.

scott99 · Dec 27, 2019

Bradyking12 said:
Stidham is different from JB, he was a projected 1st rounder until he switched schools that hurt his stock, if he would stayed at the same school he more than likely goes in the 1st so we pretty much got a QB with 1st round talent in the 4th.

That is 100% true about Stidham. Had an excellent year in 2017 (with Auburn after transferring), and some had him as the #1 QB for the 2019 draft prior to the 2018 collegiate season. He lost a great RB, and several offensive linemen, and I believe possibly his offensive coordinator (OR the offense they ran didn't suit his style).

That being said, after a tough 2018 collegiate season, I'm wondering if the Pat's brain trust, already knowing about his obvious talents, felt it was smart to snatch him up based on intangibles, he really showed his resilience in 2018, despite playing on a truly inferior team. His last game, a bowl game, he threw for 5 td passes.

I have no problem stating that Stidham was the best rookie QB we've had, in camp and the preseason games, SINCE Brady. WE all know JG is a gamer, even as a rookie, though practices and scrimmages he's garbage, once the games started, he looked really good. But I think Stidham had a better rookie season in the preseason. JB, had a decent rookie season in the preseason, but it was preseason #2 where he really took off.

Doctor DDS · Dec 27, 2019

Brady was exceptional in both the Charger and Chiefs games last year and came up big when it mattered in the Super Bowl. Do not care what the TD/Int stats show as the Patriots ran in several touchdowns after Brady led them down the field and his last 3 MUST HAVE TD drives against the Chiefs in frigid conditions are more clutch than anything Manning, Rodgers or Brees have ever accomplished. The Pats did AVERAGE over 30 points a game in the postseason last year and that includes an entire half when the team took its foot off the gas against the Chargers.

Look - they may move on from Brady if they decide that Stidham at a million plus all the extra flexibility that brings is better than Brady at 25ish but to use last years playoffs as an example as to why they should move on is absolutely foolish.

scott99 · Dec 27, 2019

Doctor DDS said:
Brady was exceptional in both the Charger and Chiefs games last year and came up big when it mattered in the Super Bowl. Do not care what the TD/Int stats show as the Patriots ran in several touchdowns after Brady led them down the field and his last 3 MUST HAVE TD drives against the Chiefs in frigid conditions are more clutch than anything Manning, Rodgers or Brees have ever accomplished. The Pats did AVERAGE over 30 points a game in the postseason last year and that includes an entire half when the team took its foot off the gas against the Chargers.

Look - they may move on from Brady if they decide that Stidham at a million plus all the extra flexibility that brings is better than Brady at 25ish but to use last years playoffs as an example as to why they should move on is absolutely foolish.

Me personally, though I believe Stidham is a quality QB prospect, Brady is my alltime favorite Patriot. I think the WR turnover really hurt him this year. At one point, Brady had Gordon and Brown, and the offense was humming. It hurt him big time when those guys left. I hope they can come to some sort of agreement to bring Brady back, and with an offseason of more work with Sanu and Harry (who I think can be an Allen Robinson type receiver for the Pats, that's who he reminds me of the most), I think he can be more effective than this year. And who knows what kind of FA they can bring in (AJ Green ?).

BaconGrundleCandy · Dec 27, 2019

scott99 said:
That is 100% true about Stidham. Had an excellent year in 2017 (with Auburn after transferring), and some had him as the #1 QB for the 2019 draft prior to the 2018 collegiate season. He lost a great RB, and several offensive linemen, and I believe possibly his offensive coordinator (OR the offense they ran didn't suit his style).

That being said, after a tough 2018 collegiate season, I'm wondering if the Pat's brain trust, already knowing about his obvious talents, felt it was smart to snatch him up based on intangibles, he really showed his resilience in 2018, despite playing on a truly inferior team. His last game, a bowl game, he threw for 5 td passes.

I have no problem stating that Stidham was the best rookie QB we've had, in camp and the preseason games, SINCE Brady. WE all know JG is a gamer, even as a rookie, though practices and scrimmages he's garbage, once the games started, he looked really good. But I think Stidham had a better rookie season in the preseason. JB, had a decent rookie season in the preseason, but it was preseason #2 where he really took off.

I remember a quote from Nick basically saying they took Stidham based on his highs/peak & really focused on what he could do. Which is something people should always remember. I always remind myself of it. Coaches/GMs always look strengths & value that more as opposed to what the prospect can't do.

mcmurtry86 · Dec 27, 2019

scott99 said:
Me personally, though I believe Stidham is a quality QB prospect, Brady is my alltime favorite Patriot. I think the WR turnover really hurt him this year. At one point, Brady had Gordon and Brown, and the offense was humming. It hurt him big time when those guys left. I hope they can come to some sort of agreement to bring Brady back, and with an offseason of more work with Sanu and Harry (who I think can be an Allen Robinson type receiver for the Pats, that's who he reminds me of the most), I think he can be more effective than this year. And who knows what kind of FA they can bring in (AJ Green ?).

he had Gordon and Brown together for one week against a terrible team. Hardly a “humming offense”

cmasspatsfan · Dec 27, 2019

I hope TB is here for a couple more years but I think some are underating Stidham, he may very well be better than advertised.

patfanken · Dec 27, 2019

I finally decided to weigh in on this onerous topic. So here's my 2 cents;

1. Forget about the house and charity. Brady has plenty of houses including another in the Boston area. BTW- he's STILL living in Brookline as we speak.

2. Forget about the money. He's making around $24MM this season and would likely make around the same next if he remains here. MONEY is never going to be the reason Brady stays or leaves. He's not playing for an NFL paycheck anymore. $15MM,. $25MM, $35MM won't change his lifestyle a bit. Forget about his wife, Brady's off field income is likely rivaling what he's making to play football. So it's NOT about what his next contract will be.

3. The Market for a 43 year old QB coming off his worst statistical year in over a decade is going to be slim eve for the GOAT. The fact remains that he's NOT going anywhere where he has to learn a new offense. He's NOT going anywhere where he doesn't have a good supporting cast (OL, WR's and RB. He's NOT going anywhere where the team doesn't have a reasonable chance to win a superbowl.

4. To my mind there only ONE possible situation that MIGHT tempt him and THAT one is complicated by the fact that it would require Josh McDaniel to come with him. That's the SD job that seems like the go to narrative if you expect Brady to leave.

5. Here's why I don't think it would happen. Anthony Lynn has been a fine HC in his years in LA, He's playing in a venue that negates any homefield advantage. HIS QB seems to have hit the wall, and his team got hit with the injury bug this season. He's also had a 13 win season in 2018. I just don't see him getting fired, and any Brady scenario to LA NEEDS to have McDaniel in the mix. Personally I see if Josh moves at all, it would be to Carolina.

venecol · Dec 27, 2019

TommyD4207 said:
Tom Brady Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

He's not worth $25-28 million. Not anymore.

This year, in full seasons since 2004 (The emphasis)-

Yards - Worst
TDs - Worst (Has a shot at 2006's 24, and 2013's 25 this week)
Completion % - 2nd worst (currently 61.1, should be safe from 2013's 60.5)
TD %- Worst
First Downs Passing - Worst
Yards per Attempt - Worst
Yards per Catch - Worst
Yards per Game - 2nd Worst
Rating - Worst

In relation to the rest of the league this season, 2019:

Yards - 9th
TDs - 14th
Completion % (Min 100 attempts) - 33rd (overall 60th)
TD % - 26th
First Downs Passing - 8th
Yards per Attempt (Min 100 attempts) - 32nd
Yards per Catch (Min 100 attempts) - 32nd
Yards per Game - 14th
Rating (Min 100 attempts) - 24th

Not a single one in the top 5, not even inside the top 8, and several of those are bottom third of the league. By the way, 23rd in sacks, the only playoff QB with fewer (who didn't miss games) is Lamar Jackson (27th).

Brady's making $23 million this year. He's done nothing to deserve a raise, considering he's gotten demonstrably worse. You could get a Teddy Bridgewater for comparable money, who's had a better year by pretty much any measure, and he's still got upside.

Brady was the best player in the history of the franchise - but he's not that guy now, and while I expect half of you folks to leave when he does, I'll still be rooting for the laundry, just like I did before.

Maybe, but what other QB with those atrocious numbers has their team ready to get a bye on Sunday for a Divisional game in 3 weeks.

venecol · Dec 27, 2019

patfanken said:
I finally decided to weigh in on this onerous topic. So here's my 2 cents;

1. Forget about the house and charity. Brady has plenty of houses including another in the Boston area. BTW- he's STILL living in Brookline as we speak.

2. Forget about the money. He's making around $24MM this season and would likely make around the same next if he remains here. MONEY is never going to be the reason Brady stays or leaves. He's not playing for an NFL paycheck anymore. $15MM,. $25MM, $35MM won't change his lifestyle a bit. Forget about his wife, Brady's off field income is likely rivaling what he's making to play football. So it's NOT about what his next contract will be.

3. The Market for a 43 year old QB coming off his worst statistical year in over a decade is going to be slim eve for the GOAT. The fact remains that he's NOT going anywhere where he has to learn a new offense. He's NOT going anywhere where he doesn't have a good supporting cast (OL, WR's and RB. He's NOT going anywhere where the team doesn't have a reasonable chance to win a superbowl.

4. To my mind there only ONE possible situation that MIGHT tempt him and THAT one is complicated by the fact that it would require Josh McDaniel to come with him. That's the SD job that seems like the go to narrative if you expect Brady to leave.

5. Here's why I don't think it would happen. Anthony Lynn has been a fine HC in his years in LA, He's playing in a venue that negates any homefield advantage. HIS QB seems to have hit the wall, and his team got hit with the injury bug this season. He's also had a 13 win season in 2018. I just don't see him getting fired, and any Brady scenario to LA NEEDS to have McDaniel in the mix. Personally I see if Josh moves at all, it would be to Carolina.

So your saying there's a chance.

supafly · Dec 28, 2019

venecol said:
Maybe, but what other QB with those atrocious numbers has their team ready to get a bye on Sunday for a Divisional game in 3 weeks.

Belichick will have to determine everything that factors in to 2019’s decline, but I’m going to guess that he’s here again in 2020 on a “year-by-year” deal, and that’s mostly based on the fact that he’s still the smartest QB in the league.

There’s no reason for me to believe that Brady can’t hit the dink and dunk timing passes at a higher rate once they actually get him some guys. He needs a TE, a running game, some speed at the WR position, and an OL who can help buy him an extra 1/4 of a second.

luuked · Dec 28, 2019

patfanken said:
4. To my mind there only ONE possible situation that MIGHT tempt him and THAT one is complicated by the fact that it would require Josh McDaniel to come with him. That's the SD job that seems like the go to narrative if you expect Brady to leave.

What Willie says at the end is how all the Brady to SD narratives die.

DarrylS · Dec 28, 2019

Gotta love Willie, Dave Dameshek is probably a guy I could do without ever knowing who existed..

venecol · Dec 28, 2019

What an annoying voice that dude has.

Uncle Rico · Dec 28, 2019

venecol said:
What an annoying voice that dude has.

<start old man voice>
Yeah I really miss the days of the golden voiced announcers. Curt Gowdy, Fred Cusick, Gil Santos, Pat Summerall. It’s like everyone in sports media these days is trained to sound like a whiny little boy, like it’s part of the gotcha wise guy mentality.
</end old man voice>
Also, Brady isn’t going anywhere.

shmessy · Dec 28, 2019

supafly said:
Belichick will have to determine everything that factors in to 2019’s decline, but I’m going to guess that he’s here again in 2020 on a “year-by-year” deal, and that’s mostly based on the fact that he’s still the smartest QB in the league.

There’s no reason for me to believe that Brady can’t hit the dink and dunk timing passes at a higher rate once they actually get him some guys. He needs a TE, a running game, some speed at the WR position, and an OL who can help buy him an extra 1/4 of a second.

Ok, so HOW are they going to get all those new guys under the salary cap while paying. 43 year old QB close to top money????? Oh, by the way Thuney is going to want to get paid as will Van Noy and several others we already have. Think of that for a moment - forget about “new” guys, they are going to have to work cap magic just to PRESERVE what they have. Oh, and there is no more cheap second round pick.

There simply won’t be room for a 43 year old Brady at $20 million a year if they want to contend instead of being a museum piece. My guess is Kraft would lean towards museum piece and BB is only concerned with contending. It all comes down to whether Kraft is willing to part with BB over this and I don’t think he is.

So, what you wrote in that second paragraph is easier written than done. Let’s think reality here.

.

shmessy · Dec 28, 2019

Uncle Rico said:
<start old man voice>
Yeah I really miss the days of the golden voiced announcers. Curt Gowdy, Fred Cusick, Gil Santos, Pat Summerall. It’s like everyone in sports media these days is trained to sound like a whiny little boy, like it’s part of the gotcha wise guy mentality.
</end old man voice>
Also, Brady isn’t going anywhere.

Socci is a nice, classy guy, but man, he’s no Gil Santos in his prime. Down, distance before every play - he painted a picture without any wasted words - - and that voice!!!!! Listening to the radio play calls of Gil and Gino before 2011 when they began slipping makes me wistful. Socci and Zo are nowhere near that.

.

.

Tottie · Dec 28, 2019

shmessy said:
Ok, so HOW are they going to get all those new guys under the salary cap while paying. 43 year old QB close to top money????? Oh, by the way Thuney is going to want to get paid as will Van Noy and several others we already have.

What you wrote in that second paragraph is easier written than done. Let’s think reality here.

.

We are never able to keep everyone. The interesting question is if you could start Stidham and keep the most of our players or keep Brady at 25 mil and lose a few of those players, what would you choose? I think Van Noy is gone, Thuney will be resigned. With the schedule like it is next year, we will not make the playoffs with Stidham IMO. BB could also bring in a free agent but what discount would that present over Brady? Is Brady worth 5 mil more than say bridgewater or someone like that? I guess at some point BB will have to choose a bridge year and just bring a guy along knowing playoffs would be tough. If he likes Stidham, I think Brady at 25mil next year is a no brainer. If he doesn't, who knows.

shmessy · Dec 28, 2019

Thuney, Collins, Karras, Van Noy, DMac, Slater, Brady and 11 others...... who is going to take up $25 million when the Patriots really don’t have as much room as most other teams under the cap????

It comes down to 2 things:
1). Exactly what level of unprecedented “hometown discount” would Brady accept
2) How much Kraft values Bill Belichick

There’s a lot of folks here not looking at the reality of the situation. If Brady does something to make the NFLPA blow its lid, then sure, he may have another year or two with the Pats (with no guarantees from Bill about playing). But it would take an unprecedented underpayment if not considering his age.

203Pat · Dec 28, 2019

shmessy said:
Thuney, Collins, Karras, Van Noy, DMac, Slater, Brady and 11 others...... who is going to take up $25 million when the Patriots really don’t have as much room as most other teams under the cap????

It comes down to 2 things:
1). Exactly what level of unprecedented “hometown discount” would Brady accept
2) How much Kraft values Bill Belichick

There’s a lot of folks here not looking at the reality of the situation. If Brady does something to make the NFLPA blow its lid, then sure, he may have another year or two with the Pats (with no guarantees from Bill about playing). But it would take an unprecedented underpayment if not considering his age.

I wouldn't be surprised if the McCourtys retire, and I would be surprised if Van Noy, Collins and Thuney are back next year. Someone is going to throw big money at those three and unless they are willing to take a discount I don't see us matching. Aside from those guys Brady is the only one who isn't a role player/special teamer.

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