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Are the Patriots really this Terrible


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So this is less sophisticated than I'd like but here you go:
Patriots WR draft picks since 2000:
View attachment 25357

Steelers WR draft picks
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Up to you how you want to evaluate success. I'd say the Pats hit on 4 WRs (Edelman, Givens, Branch, Slater) out of 15. I wouldn't argue against Mitchell either even though it was for one season (one game) only. ETA feel free to quibble with Slater too for obvious reasons.

I say the Steelers hit on 7 WRs out of 21, the first 7 on that list. Two of them are first round draft picks.

Both of those are about 1/3 success rate. You could argue that the guys the Steelers hit on were better than the Pats but this is more of a 'hit vs miss' question in my mind.

The problem with the Pats is they had three second round picks that didn't pan out. You'll note the Steelers had a couple 2s and 3s that were also whiffs.

The moral of the story is, the Steelers might have more good WRs because they draft more. Also this is a very small sample size where one extra hit will have an outsize effect on the perception of the success rate for either team.
Yeah I had them hitting on 8/15 not including AB (I’d assume Wheaton is the one you dropped off) which puts them at a .533 batting average while the Patriots hit on 2/9 which is a .222 batting average.
 
Just a couple more, picked randomly. The point being that they look like they have roughly the same success rate in drafting WRs as the Pats do.

Vikings (completely whiffed two first round picks at WR)
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Seahawks
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Ravens
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I don't care what most people that don't look beyond the surface are saying.

The reality is that the Steelers take almost double the shots at WR in the first 4 rounds compared to the Pats, so obviously they will end up with more hits. That is not some amazing insight they have but just playing the odds.

That goes back to Bill Walsh and the trade downs with his 49ers:


The only difference is that the Steelers seem to prioritize the WR position more than the Patriots. Maybe the question you actually wanted to ask is why other teams are drafting WRs more frequently than the Patriots.
Could be.

But either way, its true. But you mention good points
 
Yeah I had them hitting on 8/15 not including AB (I’d assume Wheaton is the one you dropped off) which puts them at a .533 batting average while the Patriots hit on 2/9 which is a .222 batting average.

Sure but if you want to draw a cutoff of the first four rounds then you miss Edelman and Givens which will definitely skew the hit rate for the Pats!

I also wouldn't call Wheaton or Bryant hits if that's what you're doing.

But the nice thing is that the data are there to look at and it just depends on how you want to frame the question and the criteria for success. I certainly wouldn't have a strong argument against the Steelers having had more success in the top rounds of the draft with WRs.

But if you look at the other tables I posted, it seems like the Steelers are extreme outliers and most teams have the same hit rate as the Patriots.
 
Yea it seems they aren't very good at this.

But with like 20 winning seasons, being a top 5 offense for most of those, the super bowls, etc., I might consider BB's WR drafting a strategy at this point and give him the benefit of the doubt.
 
Yea it seems they aren't very good at this.

But with like 20 winning seasons, being a top 5 offense for most of those, the super bowls, etc., I might consider BB's WR drafting a strategy at this point and give him the benefit of the doubt.
A lot of other teams must hit on draft picks to save their floundering franchise.

Sure it would be nice to find a few more hidden gems, but how many 2nd and 3rd round picks would make our final 53. Bill definitely takes shots on guys that have a high ceiling in his mind, him accounting for certain abilities and personality traits. If they don't meet his expectations then it is what it is. He has consistently put together great, cohesive units. In fairness this year the Sanu>Sanders, and Harry> metcalf & Mclaurin decisions seem to be the wrong decisions at the moment.

But yes, I'm sure there is next level strategy being utilized during drafts that is unbeknown to the casual observer.
 
Your point stands BUT David Givens belongs in the PLUS column.

The guy was a seventh round pick and was an effective, move-the-chains, physical possession receiver who played a key role in two championship seasons.

Sounds like a win there.
 
Which is bizarre since the Patriots have usually done well when taking under-regarded players from other teams like David Patten or Wes Welker or Chris Hogan and allowing them to flourish here.

I guess their scouting when seeing a guy play against NFL caliber DBs is so much better than seeing a guy against his college peers.
 
Just a couple more, picked randomly. The point being that they look like they have roughly the same success rate in drafting WRs as the Pats do.

Vikings (completely whiffed two first round picks at WR)
View attachment 25362
Seahawks
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Ravens
View attachment 25364

This is the type of data one would need to really assess our performance at drafting WR's. comparing what we've done to the Steelers who are an incredible outlier in this discussion isn't very sensible.
 
But either way, its true.

It is not true. That is the entire point. It is your and other people's assumption.

And if you'd engage in some socratic questioning of those assumptions you might actually get out of this thread with something learned.

It has already been pointed out that they take almost twice the amount of shots which increases the likelihood of hitting. Others have pointed out that other teams have similar success rates negating the idea that they are some kind of outlier.

To get away from assumptions and closer to figure out some underlying principles the question really should be why are the Patriots taking that many fewer WRs in the draft.
 
Bill claiming he would rather have Johnathan Baldwin over Julio in that draft shows he has an odd way of evaluating receivers.

OTOH when asked by Dimitroff about whether the Falcons should spend the capital and draft Julio Jones... BB encouraged him to do so.

If BB is such a poor drafter, how did the Pats win the 2 of the last three SB's??? The draft is one of many ways to build a team and a very inexact science.. but huge moneymakers for all of the prognosticators & the NFL..
 
OTOH when asked by Dimitroff about whether the Falcons should spend the capital and draft Julio Jones... BB encouraged him to do so.

My memory of this was different, so a quick search turned up these, and a host of others:

On Belichick and trading up for Julio Jones

https://nypost.com/2017/01/24/how-bill-belichick-tried-to-talk-falcons-out-of-drafting-julio-jones/

The Falcons took an enormous gamble by ignoring Bill Belichick's advice on trading for Julio Jones, and it paid off big time
 
Thread needs more data.

Only if you assume that the purpose of the thread is to genuinely explore the reason the Pats have arrived weak at the position at this point in this season. I appreciate your efforts here, but the real purpose of this thread is to provide a cheap emotional venting for people who don't want to look below the surface at the issue.

We can't legitimately criticise the drafting of one position without also promoting a position that the Pats deemphasize at least one other position in the draft. To say, "let's strengthen WR by putting more draft and cap capital into it" requires also saying "and to do so, let's weaken the OT position by putting less into it." (Or something similar.)

Building a roster, and a team that wins consistently, is a complex science where every move made affects every other aspect.
 
OTOH when asked by Dimitroff about whether the Falcons should spend the capital and draft Julio Jones... BB encouraged him to do so.

If BB is such a poor drafter, how did the Pats win the 2 of the last three SB's??? The draft is one of many ways to build a team and a very inexact science.. but huge moneymakers for all of the prognosticators & the NFL..
He's a poor drafter of wide receivers, not in general. Thats what the thread is about. He's sucked drafting WRs
 
To the OP, you are absolutely right. They've had more "misses" than hits. Not only that but they can plug in a lot of proven vets, and make them bad. I would recommend that you get your resume together and get over to 1 PP, because clearly, anything would be an improvement... it's time we get some of our recent/repeating influx of "The Pats Suck When They're 10-2" members over to Gillette to straighten things out. Belichick's got what, 7 rings? And he's an idiot! Jeez, you're looking at 10-20 by the time you're done!

And by the way, Chad Jackson will be hitting his stride any minute now :D

Seriously... I don't begrudge people their easy observations. I see a great deal of certainty that (1) BB/the Pats can't draft receivers, (2) The O-Line can't block, and (3) cliff. Flu seems not to have many remaining supporters.

Tom's a great great QB but the O Line and receivers (including TE) are terrible. The O-line is coming back and I'm tired of hearing about protection, but Brady's falling off the cliff and his receivers are terrible. The receivers are an average bunch and take too much heat, Tom's off target and gets no protection...

Everybody sucks right now. Glad you've at least kept yourself to "the Patriots can't draft receivers" (like Julian Edelman). "The Patriots can't draft linebackers" really wouldn't be au courrant this year. Not that we've never heard it.

Now that said, Edelmensch was drafted in 2-9. Since then, out of 8 guys, 2 were occasionally valuable, Mitchell and Dobson. So, one of the best in the league, 2 meh guys, 6 washouts. Also, the greatest TE of all time, and another pro bowl caliber TE until he killed a guy. Most Pats WR picks are later picks at that. Sounds like the problem is that the draft is a crapshoot. It's also quite possible that you'll get something different out a receiver in year 2 or 3 than in year 1 in the Pats system (as opposed to a pickup game down at the vacant lot.)

The Patriots offense is not a plug and play endeavor. If you don't like the results they've gotten over time, then please, when you take your resume over to 1 PP, make sure you explain the more successful system they can plug in to make their chances of receivers working out. What the hell, bring your PR and legal resumes too, in case you can make a case for AB (I really had to throw AB into this somewhere.)

Sorry man you triggered a core dump. Freedom of speech and all that, and the offense has troubles right now. Dude, cope. This might end up being a defense-forward team that makes the grade, a la the 2000 Ravens, or more likely it will be either (a) a more balanced team on which the O gets back up after getting knocked down a time or two, or (b) an off-year edition of the Pats that doesn't win the SB, or (gasp) might not even go to the SB. Believe it or not, that happens to 30 teams every year.

but "Wahhhhh this team is run soooo badly" really fails from my perspective. My local coverage is of the Redskins. We've got a ways to go before it's time to whine about the Pats' failing draft strategy.

That said: performance is way down since the Pats got their rude awakening vs. Balmer. Gotcha. The boobirds are out.

They always come out. They always have brilliant analyses of "the end," and how overall success has masked their pet peeve. They're always saying it's all over now. One day they'll be right. It might be this time. Then they can all stake out their favorite corner of "Toldyaso Park," pitch a tent, and commence Occupy Patsfans. I dunno if you think the sky is falling, or you just don't like their WR drafting.

Carry on. I didn't read far enough to see whether you had the usual post-facto List Of Guys I Would Have Drafted staple in this post... all I can say is, whether you had the list or not, why the Pats don't just fire all their talent evaluators and hire Patsfans posters is beyond me.

also GET OFF MY LAWN
 
It is not true. That is the entire point. It is your and other people's assumption.

And if you'd engage in some socratic questioning of those assumptions you might actually get out of this thread with something learned.

It has already been pointed out that they take almost twice the amount of shots which increases the likelihood of hitting. Others have pointed out that other teams have similar success rates negating the idea that they are some kind of outlier.

To get away from assumptions and closer to figure out some underlying principles the question really should be why are the Patriots taking that many fewer WRs in the draft.

So, I like numbers.

If you actually took the amount of receivers they actually drafted and developed then divided that number by the TOTAL amount of receivers drafted by the team, the operation provides a really bad result. Out of ALL the receivers they've drafted in years, only a handful (or a little more) has panned out and been successful.

I know, I know..... its much more complicated than that but..... my point still stands, BB sucks at drafting receivers. Sorry
 
To the OP, you are absolutely right. They've had more "misses" than hits. Not only that but they can plug in a lot of proven vets, and make them bad. I would recommend that you get your resume together and get over to 1 PP, because clearly, anything would be an improvement... it's time we get some of our recent/repeating influx of "The Pats Suck When They're 10-2" members over to Gillette to straighten things out. Belichick's got what, 7 rings? And he's an idiot! Jeez, you're looking at 10-20 by the time you're done!

And by the way, Chad Jackson will be hitting his stride any minute now :D

Seriously... I don't begrudge people their easy observations. I see a great deal of certainty that (1) BB/the Pats can't draft receivers, (2) The O-Line can't block, and (3) cliff. Flu seems not to have many remaining supporters.

Tom's a great great QB but the O Line and receivers (including TE) are terrible. The O-line is coming back and I'm tired of hearing about protection, but Brady's falling off the cliff and his receivers are terrible. The receivers are an average bunch and take too much heat, Tom's off target and gets no protection...

Everybody sucks right now. Glad you've at least kept yourself to "the Patriots can't draft receivers" (like Julian Edelman). "The Patriots can't draft linebackers" really wouldn't be au courrant this year. Not that we've never heard it.

Now that said, Edelmensch was drafted in 2-9. Since then, out of 8 guys, 2 were occasionally valuable, Mitchell and Dobson. So, one of the best in the league, 2 meh guys, 6 washouts. Also, the greatest TE of all time, and another pro bowl caliber TE until he killed a guy. Most Pats WR picks are later picks at that. Sounds like the problem is that the draft is a crapshoot. It's also quite possible that you'll get something different out a receiver in year 2 or 3 than in year 1 in the Pats system (as opposed to a pickup game down at the vacant lot.)

The Patriots offense is not a plug and play endeavor. If you don't like the results they've gotten over time, then please, when you take your resume over to 1 PP, make sure you explain the more successful system they can plug in to make their chances of receivers working out. What the hell, bring your PR and legal resumes too, in case you can make a case for AB (I really had to throw AB into this somewhere.)

Sorry man you triggered a core dump. Freedom of speech and all that, and the offense has troubles right now. Dude, cope. This might end up being a defense-forward team that makes the grade, a la the 2000 Ravens, or more likely it will be either (a) a more balanced team on which the O gets back up after getting knocked down a time or two, or (b) an off-year edition of the Pats that doesn't win the SB, or (gasp) might not even go to the SB. Believe it or not, that happens to 30 teams every year.

but "Wahhhhh this team is run soooo badly" really fails from my perspective. My local coverage is of the Redskins. We've got a ways to go before it's time to whine about the Pats' failing draft strategy.

That said: performance is way down since the Pats got their rude awakening vs. Balmer. Gotcha. The boobirds are out.

They always come out. They always have brilliant analyses of "the end," and how overall success has masked their pet peeve. They're always saying it's all over now. One day they'll be right. It might be this time. Then they can all stake out their favorite corner of "Toldyaso Park," pitch a tent, and commence Occupy Patsfans. I dunno if you think the sky is falling, or you just don't like their WR drafting.

Carry on. I didn't read far enough to see whether you had the usual post-facto List Of Guys I Would Have Drafted staple in this post... all I can say is, whether you had the list or not, why the Pats don't just fire all their talent evaluators and hire Patsfans posters is beyond me.

also GET OFF MY LAWN

I'm coping just fine. It was just my analysis of how I saw it and felt. I could be wrong, I'm not claiming to be the champion of stats but they've been bad bro. They draft JAGs for the most part, even in situations where they could've had much better!

C'mon they drafted Tate or Mike Wallace. I know this is a RB comparison but Sony over Chubb? There's no excuse for that, they both literally attended the same college. There's no way you look at them both and take Sony. I believe in Bill and I know he does some weird things sometimes and it usually works out in the end but I feel like they may be in over their heads this time. I've never seen Brady this disconnected from the offense. He's gone next year I feel.

And I have my own lawn.....:p
 
So, I like numbers.

If you actually took the amount of receivers they actually drafted and developed then divided that number by the TOTAL amount of receivers drafted by the team, the operation provides a really bad result. Out of ALL the receivers they've drafted in years, only a handful (or a little more) has panned out and been successful.

I know, I know..... its much more complicated than that but..... my point still stands, BB sucks at drafting receivers. Sorry

All 8 they've drafted since Edelman, one of the best in the league, of whom 2 contributed (but were not stars), Mitchell and Dobson?

Actually it's 10 from 2010 onward, but there are special teamers in there.

Easy, but wrong, observation. Look at how many picks were even on the first day of the draft, never mind a high round. They don't prioritize the position. Again, they're doing it wrong. Get your resume over there and show them how it's done.
 
I'm coping just fine. It was just my analysis of how I saw it and felt. I could be wrong, I'm not claiming to be the champion of stats but they've been bad bro. They draft JAGs for the most part, even in situations where they could've had much better!

C'mon they drafted Tate or Mike Wallace. I know this is a RB comparison but Sony over Chubb? There's no excuse for that, they both literally attended the same college. There's no way you look at them both and take Sony. I believe in Bill and I know he does some weird things sometimes and it usually works out in the end but I feel like they may be in over their heads this time. I've never seen Brady this disconnected from the offense. He's gone next year I feel.

And I have my own lawn.....:p

Aight.

Just sain', hindsight bias. Gotta get the day underway.
 
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TRANSCRIPT: Eliot Wolf’s Pre-Draft Press Conference 4/18/24
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/18: News and Notes
Wednesday Patriots Notebook 4/17: News and Notes
Tuesday Patriots Notebook 4/16: News and Notes
Monday Patriots Notebook 4/15: News and Notes
Patriots News 4-14, Mock Draft 3.0, Gilmore, Law Rally For Bill 
Potential Patriot: Boston Globe’s Price Talks to Georgia WR McConkey
Friday Patriots Notebook 4/12: News and Notes
Not a First Round Pick? Hoge Doubles Down on Maye
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/11: News and Notes
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