2019 Playoffs Seeding - unexpected outlook

goheels22002 · Nov 11, 2019

2019 NFL Standings & Team Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Interesting to wake up after the bye and see the AFC standings after 10 weeks. It's great to see the Patriots in control of their destiny atop to the AFC standings, but disconcerting to know they don't hold the tiebreaker over the Ravens.

The fading Chiefs are presently the 4th seed two games behind the Ravens for a bye. Injuries are taking their toll in KC, especially on defense. Another loss for the Chiefs and they risk becoming a wild card team.

The Steelers without Ben Roethlisberger are clinging to the 6th seed after a huge win over the unimpressive Rams. Also at 5-4 and knocking on the door for the last playoff spot are the Luck-less Colts guided by Brian Hoyer, and the Oakland Raiders with Chucky pulling the strings.

If the Patriots can get through this next month with one loss, and the Ravens don't run the table, the Patriots have a good chance of getting the top seed in the AFC and homefield throughout. That Chiefs game at home on December 8 looms large, but is looking less daunting every week.

scout · Nov 11, 2019

goheels22002 said:
If the Patriots can get through this next month with one loss, and the Ravens don't run the table, the Patriots have a good chance of getting the top seed in the AFC and homefield throughout. That Chiefs game at home on December 8 looms large, but is looking less daunting every week.

Look at the Ravens remaining games. They will not run the table. They will face tough teams, some of who have felt adversity and have made the adjustments. Pretty confident the road to the Super Bowl goes through Gillette.

SHOWTIME15 · Nov 11, 2019

Even if we have to go back to Baltimore for the AFCCG I am confident. The Pats kept it pretty close on the scoreboard (24-20) up until the 4th quarter. We can go into that environment and win, just like we did in KC last year.

oldrover · Nov 11, 2019

goheels22002 said:
2019 Playoffs Seeding - unexpected outlook

Did you say... 'unexpected'?

https://imgflip.com/gif-maker

...sorry... Monty Python's 50th anniversary this year... I am required to post this as part of my contractual obligation to the Department of Silly GIF's.

Pat the Pats Fan · Nov 11, 2019

Ratbirds finish @ Browns and home against Steelers. Steelers are in hunt now and Browns are thinking they can run the table? Next 3 weeks are Texans, @ Rams and 49ers. They have a pretty tough schedule, like the Pats.

The Brandon Five · Nov 11, 2019

Baltimore's remaining games appear to be against teams with above-average fronts:
HOU
LAR
SF
BUF
NYJ
CLE
PIT

1960Pats · Nov 11, 2019

It's still a little early for predictions but the AFC is looking a little clearer this morning. The top 2 seeds are most likely the Pats and Ratbirds, hopefully in that order.

Below are the rest of the potential playoff teams and their remaining games. The tougher games are marked by an asterisk;

Team (record) Home / Away
Buf (6-3) - Den, Bal* NJ / Mia, Dal* Pit* NE*
Hou (6-3) - Ind, NE* Den, Ten* / Bal* Ten* TB
KC (6-4) - Oak, Den, LC / LC, NE* Chi*
Pitt (5-4) - Cle, Buf* / Cle, Cin, Ari, NJ, Bal*
Ind (5-4) - Jac, Ten* Car* / Hou* TB, NO* Jac
Oak (5-4) - Cin, Ten* Jac / NJ, KC* LC, Den
Ten (5-5) - Jac, Hou* NO* / Ind* Oak* Hou*
Jac (4-5) - TB, LC, Ind* / Ind* Ten* Oak* Atl

All of the AFCS teams will be knocking off each other and have tougher remaining games, so the winner will probably be the only playoff team. Now that they have a QB, if the Titans can knock off the Texans in both their games they can pull it off.

The AFCW will come down to either KC or the Raiduhs (hard to believe but it's true).

In the AFC the Squeelers have the upper hand for a WC spot. They only have two home games remaining but have the easiest schedule of them all.

I'm pulling for the Bills to make the playoffs but it won't be easy for them with a home game vs Bal and away games at Pit and NE.

What I'm really hoping for though is in the NFC. I can't wait to see what happens if a team from the NFCE gets in the playoffs with a worse record than either Minnesota, Seattle, the Rams or the Bears. That would be great.

PatsFanSince74 · Nov 11, 2019

1960Pats said:
It's still a little early for predictions but the AFC is looking a little clearer this morning. The top 2 seeds are most likely the Pats and Ratbirds, hopefully in that order.

Below are the rest of the potential playoff teams and their remaining games. The tougher games are marked by an asterisk;

Team (record) Home / Away
Buf (6-3) - Den, Bal* NJ / Mia, Dal* Pit* NE*
Hou (6-3) - Ind, NE* Den, Ten* / Bal* Ten* TB
KC (6-4) - Oak, Den, LC / LC, NE* Chi*
Pitt (5-4) - Cle, Buf* / Cle, Cin, Ari, NJ, Bal*
Ind (5-4) - Jac, Ten* Car* / Hou* TB, NO* Jac
Oak (5-4) - Cin, Ten* Jac / NJ, KC* LC, Den
Ten (5-5) - Jac, Hou* NO* / Ind* Oak* Hou*
Jac (4-5) - TB, LC, Ind* / Ind* Ten* Oak* Atl

All of the AFCS teams will be knocking off each other and have tougher remaining games, so the winner will probably be the only playoff team. Now that they have a QB, if the Titans can knock off the Texans in both their games they can pull it off.

The AFCW will come down to either KC or the Raiduhs (hard to believe but it's true).

In the AFC the Squeelers have the upper hand for a WC spot. They only have two home games remaining but have the easiest schedule of them all.

I'm pulling for the Bills to make the playoffs but it won't be easy for them with a home game vs Bal and away games at Pit and NE.

What I'm really hoping for though is in the NFC. I can't wait to see what happens if a team from the NFCE gets in the playoffs with a worse record than either Minnesota, Seattle, the Rams or the Bears. That would be great.

Beware NFCE teams that get into the playoffs with worse records than every other NFC team to make the playoffss...2011 comes to mind...:
GBP 15--1
NOS 13-3
SFO 13-3
ATL 10-6
DET 10-6
NYG 9-7

We all know how that ended up

drewskie · Nov 11, 2019

BAL has tough stretch from weeks 11-14 just like us, with the following matchups:

wk 11 vs HOU
wk 12 at LAR
wk 13 vs SF
wk 14 at BUF

wk 15 vs NYJ
wk 16 at CLE
wk 17 vs PIT

I'd put NE as a slight fav for the 1 seed in the AFC but we don't have the tierbreaker meaning we will likely need BAL to drop at least 1 game the rest of the way, if not 2 preferably to give more breathing room (I think we will drop 1 of the next 4 at PHI, vs DAL, at HOU, vs KC).

FortressX · Nov 11, 2019

Tomlin and Gruden are doing good work coming back from the dead.

I hope they both can make it in.

Patstastic · Nov 11, 2019

Bottom line is I don't want to back into the 1 seed. In otherwords, I don't want other teams dropping a bunch of games, the Pats not looking great, but dropping into a 1 seed by default. I want them to go out and earn it.

Brick27 · Nov 11, 2019

Patstastic said:
Bottom line is I don't want to back into the 1 seed. In otherwords, I don't want other teams dropping a bunch of games, the Pats not looking great, but dropping into a 1 seed by default. I want them to go out and earn it.

Call me old fashioned, but I say get the 1 seed and ask questions about style points and circumstance later. Hope for the best health possible going into the playoffs, and take it from there.

Patstastic · Nov 11, 2019

Brick27 said:
Call me old fashioned, but I say get the 1 seed and ask questions about style points and circumstance later. Hope for the best health possible going into the playoffs, and take it from there.

If a team needs help to slide into a preferred playoff position, they probably aren't going to beat at least three great teams in the postseason. Ultimately said team usually gets exposed by a superior opponent. 2018 is the exception. So it can happen. That's where my thinking was on that point.

FCB02062 · Nov 11, 2019

Patriots, if my math is correct are 3-4 as #1 seed in winning the SB...

I would argue, while great, #1 seed is far less important as earning a bye week

Jlaff · Nov 11, 2019

FCB02062 said:
Patriots, if my math is correct are 3-4 as #1 seed in winning the SB...

I would argue, while great, #1 seed is far less important as earning a bye week

I love this world we live in. A history of less than 50% odds of winning the Superbowl with the #1 seed. What other team has won so much that this would even be considered a potential negative.

1960Pats · Nov 11, 2019

PatsFanSince74 said:
Beware NFCE teams that get into the playoffs with worse records than every other NFC team to make the playoffss...2011 comes to mind...:
GBP 15--1
NOS 13-3
SFO 13-3
ATL 10-6
DET 10-6
NYG 9-7

We all know how that ended up

That's slightly different. The Giants that year had the 6th best NFC record and would have qualified anyway. I'm talking about a team with a worse record getting in over a team with a better record.

It happened to the Pats when an 8-8 Chargers team made the playoffs over the Brady-less 11-5 team in 2008. To me, that's a disgraceful by-product of this stupid 4 team division setup.

The worst though was in 2014 when a 7-8-1 Carolina team made the playoffs while 10-6 Philly, who pummeled the Panthers during the season, had to stay home. Even the 8-8 49ers had a better record than the Panthers that year.

No way players or fans of any team should have to sit home while another team with a worse record gets to go to the dance.

And sure, I know how that 2007 season ended up. The Giants played us twice, came close to winning the last game of the season and beat us fair and square in the SB. Those other more truly inferior teams didn't win squat.

PatsFanSince74 · Nov 11, 2019

1960Pats said:
That's slightly different. The Giants that year had the 6th best NFC record and would have qualified anyway. I'm talking about a team with a worse record getting in over a team with a better record.

It happened to the Pats when an 8-8 Chargers team made the playoffs over the Brady-less 11-5 team in 2008. To me, that's a disgraceful by-product of this stupid 4 team division setup.

The worst though was in 2014 when a 7-8-1 Carolina team made the playoffs while 10-6 Philly, who pummeled the Panthers during the season, had to stay home. Even the 8-8 49ers had a better record than the Panthers that year.

No way players or fans of any team should have to sit home while another team with a worse record gets to go to the dance.

And sure, I know how that 2007 season ended up. The Giants played us twice, came close to winning the last game of the season and beat us fair and square in the SB. Those other more truly inferior teams didn't win squat.

Sure. I see the distinction.

The thing is that as long as the NFL, the owners and most fans (including myself) continue to value the Divisions and divisional rivalries, that stuff can happen. In this case, the Panthers beat their Division rival Falcons in Week 17 while the Saints beat up on the hapless Bucs at the bottom of the Division.

So, the NFL got exactly what it wanted: three fan bases with so-so teams (Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana) were fully engaged in the final week of the season while fans in western Florida fantasized about playing a spoiler role.

FWIW, those 7--8--1 Panthers also beat the 11-5 Cardinals in the Wild Card round, before losing to the Seahawks in the Division Game. In the end, two of the three 12--4 teams who (arguably) should have been in the NFCCG (Seattle and Green Bay, with Dallas ousted by the Packers) ended up in the game.

So, all in all, while there are anomalies and even what feels like "unfairness" from time to time, I think the Division structure and playoff seedings, while imperfect, is good for a 32 Franchise League, keeps the TV viewership high until the end of the season and gives a lot of teams and their fans "hope" who otherwise wouldn't have it.

And, finally, it doesn't bother me that the Pats were victimized by it in the 2008 season. They should have gone 12--4 and not lost to the Dolphins and Jets and let the 8--8 Chargers, who went to the Playoffs as Division winner, beat them by 20 points.

drewskie · Nov 11, 2019

PatsFanSince74 said:
Sure. I see the distinction.

The thing is that as long as the NFL, the owners and most fans (including myself) continue to value the Divisions and divisional rivalries, that stuff can happen. In this case, the Panthers beat their Division rival Falcons in Week 17 while the Saints beat up on the hapless Bucs at the bottom of the Division.

So, the NFL got exactly what it wanted: three fan bases with so-so teams (Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana) were fully engaged in the final week of the season while fans in western Florida fantasized about playing a spoiler role.

FWIW, those 7--8--1 Panthers also beat the 11-5 Cardinals in the Wild Card round, before losing to the Seahawks in the Division Game. In the end, two of the three 12--4 teams who (arguably) should have been in the NFCCG (Seattle and Green Bay, with Dallas ousted by the Packers) ended up in the game.

So, all in all, while there are anomalies and even what feels like "unfairness" from time to time, I think the Division structure and playoff seedings, while imperfect, is good for a 32 Franchise League, keeps the TV viewership high until the end of the season and gives a lot of teams and their fans "hope" who otherwise wouldn't have it.

And, finally, it doesn't bother me that the Pats were victimized by it in the 2008 season. They should have gone 12--4 and not lost to the Dolphins and Jets and let the 8--8 Chargers, who went to the Playoffs as Division winner, beat them by 20 points.

I understand those who value divisions and "rivalries". For me personally, I don't. My take is that North American pro sports spams this concept too much. In the UEFA Champions League from the QFs onwards you could play any club. In any top flight association football (soccer) league across the pond, you get 1 home and away match in league play against each team, no more, no less. You don't see Manchester United and Liverpool playing each other more because they're traditional rivals. To me, its called a league for a reason. But it is what it is.

fxmallon · Nov 11, 2019

I think if we win the Philly game, all will be well indeed. But if we lose, and Baltimore beats Houston, that doesn't sit right, even if our remaining games might be slightly easier than the Ravens.

1960Pats · Nov 11, 2019

PatsFanSince74 said:
Sure. I see the distinction.

The thing is that as long as the NFL, the owners and most fans (including myself) continue to value the Divisions and divisional rivalries, that stuff can happen. In this case, the Panthers beat their Division rival Falcons in Week 17 while the Saints beat up on the hapless Bucs at the bottom of the Division.

So, the NFL got exactly what it wanted: three fan bases with so-so teams (Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana) were fully engaged in the final week of the season while fans in western Florida fantasized about playing a spoiler role.

FWIW, those 7--8--1 Panthers also beat the 11-5 Cardinals in the Wild Card round, before losing to the Seahawks in the Division Game. In the end, two of the three 12--4 teams who (arguably) should have been in the NFCCG (Seattle and Green Bay, with Dallas ousted by the Packers) ended up in the game.

So, all in all, while there are anomalies and even what feels like "unfairness" from time to time, I think the Division structure and playoff seedings, while imperfect, is good for a 32 Franchise League, keeps the TV viewership high until the end of the season and gives a lot of teams and their fans "hope" who otherwise wouldn't have it.

And, finally, it doesn't bother me that the Pats were victimized by it in the 2008 season. They should have gone 12--4 and not lost to the Dolphins and Jets and let the 8--8 Chargers, who went to the Playoffs as Division winner, beat them by 20 points.

I understand that some people like the idea of celebrating a division "title" even if it only means that the team beat out 3 of 15 other teams. I'm not one of those and never have been.

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