40 times and game speed (relevant to several Pats players like Meyers)

Here's my guess: there's a huge confound in the lack of correlation between 40 times and NFL success. Given the value placed on speed, teams are willing to roll the dice on a less skilled, less polished, less accomplished player if he runs a 4.3. Whereas for a WR to make it to the NFL running a 4.65, he has to show some pretty special skills.

In other words, the samples aren't equivalent. Slower players start off, on average, as better football players. But given the same level of football skills, more speed is better.

Simply put, NFL receivers only very rarely run clean at the line. The more relevant question is time to beat the jam. Randy Moss was historically good not just because he could run like the wind but because no one could jam him at the line because of how quick his feet were and how strong he was, and he could get out of his break and to top speed like nobody else.

You know who's the best receiver at beating the jam in the NFL? He's a Patriot, but he doesn't have a catch in years. Watch Matt Slater play gunner, he can't be stopped by two guys whose entire role is to stop him and he gets to full speed in a second. It's a shame Slater never gained the savvy and hand-eye coordination to be a receiver, because he's got the most important part of it down better than just about anyone.

Michael Thomas is probably the best jam beater in the NFL right now among normal receivers. He's a 4.6 40 guy but his quick feet and size make him basically unstoppable. He's like a more physically gifted Stevie Johnson, who was the king of getting open while being like a 4.6. It'sall about lthe feet, which is why the cones and shuttles matter.

patchick said:

Here's my guess: there's a huge confound in the lack of correlation between 40 times and NFL success. Given the value placed on speed, teams are willing to roll the dice on a less skilled, less polished, less accomplished player if he runs a 4.3. Whereas for a WR to make it to the NFL running a 4.65, he has to show some pretty special skills.

In other words, the samples aren't equivalent. Slower players start off, on average, as better football players. But given the same level of football skills, more speed is better.

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This is very astute.

The wide receiver position is about a three things:

1.) Hands.
2.) separation.
3.) winning 50-50 balls.

speed is great for long balls, but what qb has the time to drop back and go long repeatedly in games?

When I read the title, I instantly thought of McCourtys int return last year where he was tracked by the NFL gametracking sensors (?sys name forgotten?) as the fastest guy in the NFL.

So, I thought I was going to see a table comparing those combine 40-times to actual game-speed tracked speeds (in pads with sensors/video-digitally measured). Don't know where anyone gets that data, but that would be truly interesting in this discussion.

Gumby said:

When I read the title, I instantly thought of McCourtys int return last year where he was tracked by the NFL gametracking sensors (?sys name forgotten?) as the fastest guy in the NFL.

So, I thought I was going to see a table comparing those combine 40-times to actual game-speed tracked speeds (in pads with sensors/video-digitally measured). Don't know where anyone gets that data, but that would be truly interesting in this discussion.

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They only show it for fastest ball carrier, rather than fastest player. The link to the stats are below though. You can go back over a few seasons.

NGS | NFL Next Gen Stats

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

Welker and Sanu are behind him. Amendola is very close. Edelman and Gordon don’t stand out as remarkably faster either.

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disagree about Gordon. A full tenth is a big difference in the 40. Gordon timed as fine in the 40 at the combine. Supposedly he was timed in the 4.3s/4.4s by teams at other times in the draft process.


Additionally as a pro he reportedly timed as a 4.3:

Josh Gordon's Insane 40 Time Shows He's Ready to Shock the NFL


I’m not say 40 time is the be all and end all, but Josh Gordon is fast.

patchick said:

Here's my guess: there's a huge confound in the lack of correlation between 40 times and NFL success. Given the value placed on speed, teams are willing to roll the dice on a less skilled, less polished, less accomplished player if he runs a 4.3. Whereas for a WR to make it to the NFL running a 4.65, he has to show some pretty special skills.

In other words, the samples aren't equivalent. Slower players start off, on average, as better football players. But given the same level of football skills, more speed is better.

Click to expand...

The flipside is also true. That the receivers who have been fast their entire high school and college life and could coast on pure athleticism are often unknowns when it comes to how good of a football player they are vs. how good of an athlete.

How many really quick guys keep honing their route running skills in general or their footwork more specifically if they don't have to. And if they rarely experienced the adversity necessary to broaden their skillset good luck projecting how well they will do it when drafted in the pros or how quickly.

Case in point Corey Coleman (and many many others).


The 40 time remains the playground of people with non-regressive intuition bias thinking that people with a great time are more likely to be good receivers. As you are saying you don't need absurd speed or athleticism to be "open" in the NFL.

luuked said:

The 40 time remains the playground of people with non-regressive intuition bias thinking that people with a great time are more likely to be good receivers. As you are saying you don't need absurd speed or athleticism to be "open" in the NFL.

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Of course you need absurd athleticism to play receiver in the NFL. The difference in athletic ability between these guys isn't absurd and normal, it's the difference between absurd and a sliver more absurd. The biggest issue with the 40 is overrating small differences in speed. A 4.5 40 is still fast as hell by any meaningful consideration.

primetime said:

Of course you need absurd athleticism to play receiver in the NFL. The difference in athletic ability between these guys isn't absurd and normal, it's the difference between absurd and a sliver more absurd. The biggest issue with the 40 is overrating small differences in speed. A 4.5 40 is still fast as hell by any meaningful consideration.

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Yeah thats kinda my point. To out athleticism anyone in the pros you need to be an absurd outlier. When I write absurd speed I am talking from a NFL perspective not everyday life.

The further along you get in your career the less physical skills will give you an edge.

If athleticism is "mostly" a wash it becomes about how well you can use (and mix) all the other tools in the box to get open.

For the most part, the NE offense is a move the chains offense and Meyers seems to have fantastic possession receiver skills...and he’s just 7 games into his career.

Also, twice NE has brought in quality vet WRs.... Brown and Sanu... and each time BB has chosen to dump a quality vet WR to free up space....Thomas and Gordon.....while Meyers sticks.
True, cap considerations always come into play with these moves but I’m of the opinion NE truly values Meyers and see him as a long term piece and a great value for a team pressed up against the cap

Gumby said:

When I read the title, I instantly thought of McCourtys int return last year where he was tracked by the NFL gametracking sensors (?sys name forgotten?) as the fastest guy in the NFL.

So, I thought I was going to see a table comparing those combine 40-times to actual game-speed tracked speeds (in pads with sensors/video-digitally measured). Don't know where anyone gets that data, but that would be truly interesting in this discussion.

Click to expand...

A couple of years back I got end zone tickets for a Pats Falcon game (won handily by the Pats) and my two strongest memories were Brady’s remarkable poise in the pocket (quite obvious to me in the stands when his back was to the end zone) and McCourty playing center field and he appeared to be playing in fast forward compared to the other players, maybe it was because of his roaming role from sideline to sideline that he seemed to be playing way faster than everyone else, but it was quite striking to me.

primetime said:

Of course you need absurd athleticism to play receiver in the NFL. The difference in athletic ability between these guys isn't absurd and normal, it's the difference between absurd and a sliver more absurd. The biggest issue with the 40 is overrating small differences in speed. A 4.5 40 is still fast as hell by any meaningful consideration.

Click to expand...

luuked said:

Yeah thats kinda my point. To out athleticism anyone in the pros you need to be an absurd outlier. When I write absurd speed I am talking from a NFL perspective not everyday life.

The further along you get in your career the less physical skills will give you an edge.

If athleticism is "mostly" a wash it becomes about how well you can use (and mix) all the other tools in the box to get open.

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Great points. And it’s not just WRs. It’s why guys like Nink can develop from a journeyman JAG on the roster bubble into a key piece in the LB corps despite not being as absurdly athletic as Jamie Collins. It’s about motivation and intelligence and work ethic as much or more than it is purely about talent, or speed.

This is also what drive me crazy about those who will look at a rookie or early career player and attempt to shoehorn their future career into some predetermined “ceiling” based on whatever flawed metrics they might choose to honor. There was a post earlier in this thread that hinted at the sort of over-reliance on a narrow view of measured athleticism in forecasting player futures. This is what I’m talking about:

Bobsyouruncle said:

...

I don’t know, the guy might make it, but this list doesn’t show speed is unimportant for WRs.

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Don’t confuse correlation with causation. It could be that all WRs are equally fast and most get tutored more to prep for the measured forty, so those that aren’t tutored look slower on the forty than they play on the field. You just don’t know.

I could be wrong...my ex-wife said it all the time...

But isn't Meyers' thing winning contested catches and his catch radius? Why is his 40 such a huge concern?