40 times and game speed (relevant to several Pats players like Meyers)

I posted this in the Meyers thread, but then I saw another comment from @Deus Irae when he was discussing the non-correlation the 40-time vs. actual games speed in the context of Sanu and Meyers vs. Harry when someone used 40 times to contrast the players. I thought this was worthy of a new thread since I researched all of the 40 times of notable Patriots skill players. I’m including my first paragraph which in response to the oft-repeated “Jakobi Meyers isn’t fast” comment, which is followed by the list. Point being that 40 time and game speed seem often have little correlation.

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Wish commentators would shut up about him "not being athletic." It isn't just Booger the Buffoon, who I expect stupidity from, but almost every time he's talked about they bring up his 40 time and conclude he isn't a great athlete and is like the little engine that could or something. Are you kidding me? Speed is clearly not a problem for Meyers. The chart below shows, outside of Moss, that these times are practically random when it comes to observed speed, deep play ability, big play breakouts, etc, and it's shocking that some players are equal to or higher than others despite being clearly slower in reality (example, Graham vs. Hernandez, Dobson vs. everyone else., Hogan vs. Gordon). The game day speed of these players appears to have almost no correlation with their 40 time, provided it is within the normal range, which Meyers is within.

Moss - 4.25
Dorsett - 4.25
B. Johnson - 4.26
Jackson - 4.32
Dobson - 4.37
Price - 4.41
Berrios - 4.44
Mitchell - 4.45
Branch - 4.47
Maroney - 4.48
Watson - 4.50
Hogan - 4.50
Tate - 4.52
Edelman - 4.52
Gordon - 4.52
Harry - 4.53
Michel - 4.54
White - 4.57
Faulk - 4.57
Lewis - 4.57
Amendola - 4.58
Meyers - 4.63
Hernandez 4.64
Graham - 4.64
Welker - 4.65
Ridley - 4.66
Bolden - 4.66
Sanu - 4.67
Gronkowski - 4.68

Other Notable WRs
Antonio Brown - 4.56
Davante Adams - 4.56
Chad Johnson - 4.57
Cris Carter - 4.63
Larry Fitzgerald - 4.63
Anquan Boldin - 4.71
Jerry Rice - 4.71

Jerry Rice at 4.71 is a powerful example how 40 times are overrated. 40 times are useful, they’re a part of the evaluation process, not the full story.

shuttle and 3 cone is more important than the 40 anyway.

When were these times taken? During the draft? These players all develop over time.

The chart below shows, outside of Moss, that these times are practically random when it comes to observed speed, deep play ability, big play breakouts, etc, and it's shocking that some players are equal to or higher than others despite being clearly slower in reality (example, Graham vs. Hernandez, Dobson vs. everyone else., Hogan vs. Gordon). The game day speed of these players appears to have almost no correlation with their 40 time, provided it is within the normal range, which Meyers is within.

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While I agree that 40 times don't necessarily translate to game speed, I don't agree that the translation is practically random. From what I'm reading, you seem to be combining the notion of speed with he idea of NFL talent, and tagging the former as irrelevant because of the latter, which I think many players demonstrate not to be an accurate method of evaluation. Bethel's speed was obvious when he got clear (think about his returns), for example. He just sucked as a WR.

The problems with a timed 40:

• Players prep specifically for it
• It doesn't actually matter in an NFL game, as no player is coming out of the blocks and running 40 yards
• It doesn't take into account the need to carry NFL pads, and the impact of that on speed

The problems with talking about speed translating in the way you seem to be doing:

• Straight line speed is still straight line speed
• Getting open in the NFL is a matter of combining speed, strength, technique, route running, and probably things I'm forgetting right now
• NFL teams have multiple ways to adjust for speed (press coverage, dropping a bit further back at the start, etc...)

We can see this with Dorsett. He's obviously fast enough to stress the defenders with that speed, and we've seen that on several occasions, though his NFL speed plays more "faster than most" than "absolute burner". His areas of comparative weakness lie elsewhere. We can compare that to a guy like Boldin, for example, who wasn't winning with speed. He was winning with size, power, and precision.

If I've misunderstood the point of your post, my apologies. I'll just end by saying that what we see in college tends (tends does not means guarantees) to translate into the pros, in the sense that speed tends to remain speed, precision tends to remain precision, and the like. Boldin never became a burner, Moss never became a route running brute dominating the short middle with his physicality, etc...

Deus Irae said:

While I agree that 40 times don't necessarily translate to game speed, I don't agree that the translation is practically random. From what I'm reading, you seem to be combining the notion of speed with he idea of NFL talent, and tagging the former as irrelevant because of the latter, which I think many players demonstrate not to be an accurate method of evaluation. Bethel's speed was obvious when he got clear (think about his returns), for example. He just sucked as a WR.

The problems with a timed 40:

• Players prep specifically for it
• It doesn't actually matter in an NFL game, as no player is coming out of the blocks and running 40 yards
• It doesn't take into account the need to carry NFL pads, and the impact of that on speed

The problems with talking about speed translating in the way you seem to be doing:

• Straight line speed is still straight line speed
• Getting open in the NFL is a matter of combining speed, strength, technique, route running, and probably things I'm forgetting right now
• NFL teams have multiple ways to adjust for speed (press coverage, dropping a bit further back at the start, etc...)

We can see this with Dorsett. He's obviously fast enough to press the defenders with that speed, and we've seen that on several occasions, though his NFL speed plays more "faster than most" than "absolute burner". His areas of comparative weakness lie elsewhere. We can compare that to a guy like Boldin, for example, who wasn't winning with speed. He was winning with size, power, and precision.

If I've misunderstood the point of your post, my apologies. I'll just end by saying that what we see in college tends (tends does not means guarantees) to translate into the pros, in the sense that speed tends to remain speed, precision tends to remain precision, and the like. Boldin never became a burner, Moss never became a route running brute dominating the short middle with his physicality, etc...

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Come on Deus, you slacker, get your official other games thread going. Lots of fun stuff going on

Brandon_Cox said:

Come on Deus, you slacker, get your official other games thread going. Lots of fun stuff going on

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The powers that be kept screwing with those threads, which made them useless for the purpose I intended. So I'll let someone else try to figure a way to bring those threads, and their aims, to fruition.

NashuaPats said:

Jerry Rice at 4.71 is a powerful example how 40 times are overrated. 40 times are useful, they’re a part of the evaluation process, not the full story.

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Came here to say exactly this. Jerry Rice was the greatest WR ever, never got chased down, and put up a 4.71. 40 time means NOTHING.

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Other noted, I believe Keenan allen runs a 4.71 40 and Michael Thomas is 4.57

DropKickFlutie said:

Came here to say exactly this. Jerry Rice was the greatest WR ever, never got chased down, and put up a 4.71. 40 time means NOTHING.

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That 4.71 that people tag on Rice is also a bit of a myth, in the sense that 4.71 wasn't his only 40 dash time. For example:

“We timed Jerry in the 40 nine times,” said former Dallas Cowboys general manager Gil Brandt, “and he never got under 4.55.”

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NFL Draft: The 40-yard dash: Who's responsible for it? Does it really matter to NFL teams? And why is it 40 yards? - College Hotline

So Rice was apparently able to put up a 4.55 forty for Dallas.

Bill Walsh had him at 4.59

Ken Whisenhunt on Jerry Rice's 40, over-prepared prospects

Here's an article on the 40 time that some might find interesting. I used it in the post above, but it might merit it's own time in the sun.

NFL Draft: The 40-yard dash: Who's responsible for it? Does it really matter to NFL teams? And why is it 40 yards? - College Hotline

Deus Irae said:

That 4.71 that people tag on Rice is also a bit of a myth

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So is the Larry Fitzgerald 4.63 40. It was like a database error and he really ran like a 4.48 or something.

What about Cooks? Awesome speed but liked to try to pole vault. He never was good at high jump or pole vaulting. So, his speed didn’t mean much

Deus Irae said:

While I agree that 40 times don't necessarily translate to game speed, I don't agree that the translation is practically random. From what I'm reading, you seem to be combining the notion of speed with he idea of NFL talent, and tagging the former as irrelevant because of the latter, which I think many players demonstrate not to be an accurate method of evaluation. Bethel's speed was obvious when he got clear (think about his returns), for example. He just sucked as a WR.

The problems with a timed 40:

• Players prep specifically for it
• It doesn't actually matter in an NFL game, as no player is coming out of the blocks and running 40 yards
• It doesn't take into account the need to carry NFL pads, and the impact of that on speed

The problems with talking about speed translating in the way you seem to be doing:

• Straight line speed is still straight line speed
• Getting open in the NFL is a matter of combining speed, strength, technique, route running, and probably things I'm forgetting right now
• NFL teams have multiple ways to adjust for speed (press coverage, dropping a bit further back at the start, etc...)

We can see this with Dorsett. He's obviously fast enough to stress the defenders with that speed, and we've seen that on several occasions, though his NFL speed plays more "faster than most" than "absolute burner". His areas of comparative weakness lie elsewhere. We can compare that to a guy like Boldin, for example, who wasn't winning with speed. He was winning with size, power, and precision.

If I've misunderstood the point of your post, my apologies. I'll just end by saying that what we see in college tends (tends does not means guarantees) to translate into the pros, in the sense that speed tends to remain speed, precision tends to remain precision, and the like. Boldin never became a burner, Moss never became a route running brute dominating the short middle with his physicality, etc...

Click to expand...

Good post. I don’t know it it missed my point...just brings more good discussion and context. But, yes, I was referring to straight speed. Wearing helmets and pads and not running in a straight line with specific training for that distance, means I think a lot of guys who have a better 40 time aren’t faster than some guys that ran a worse 40 time. There are obvious exceptions...as you noted, Bethel Johnson was super fast. Deion Sanders was super fast. Then there are a lot of guys in the muddled middle. Chris Hogan faster than Josh Gordon? My general point is that saying one guys runs a 4.52 and the other runs a 4.58 is basically irrelevant. And I don’t see a “ceiling” on Meyers in that sense many are implying he is slow for a WR. He isn’t going to be DeSean Jackson, but he’s plenty fast enough to be successful.

All the WRs in the list have the fast times, and Meyers is down with the TEs and RBs.

Bobsyouruncle said:

All the WRs in the list have the fast times, and Meyers is down with the TEs and RBs.

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Welker and Sanu are behind him. Amendola is very close. Edelman and Gordon don’t stand out as remarkably faster either.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

Welker and Sanu are behind him. Amendola is very close. Edelman and Gordon don’t stand out as remarkably faster either.

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Sure, another way to look at it is that he would be the slowest WR except for Welker in this offense- who was a slot guy. Gordon obviously can use his size.

I’m not saying 40 times are everything but that list doesn’t inspire much hope. The people slower than him were either older guys facing slower competition or extremely agile slot guys- which he doesn’t seem to be.

Then again his 40 time may not capture his speed. Butler reportedly ran a 4.4 40 when NE tested him. I’ve heard that those times require track training, which most players do just for the combine. If someone doesn’t train properly than they could have trouble getting a good time from poor technique, despite being physically capable of it.

Bobsyouruncle said:

Sure, another way to look at it is that he would be the slowest WR except for Welker in this offense- who was a slot guy. Gordon obviously can use his size.

I’m not saying 40 times are everything but that list doesn’t inspire much hope. The people slower than him were either older guys facing slower competition or extremely agile slot guys- which he doesn’t seem to be.

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Agree to disagree. I see basically total randomness when it comes to the success (and some randomness with game speed) of these players, based on 40 times. What inspires hope is the reality that he’s clearly able to get separation, which is the whole point of being fast. There’s a list of “speedsters” on there that did less in their careers than Meyers has already done. At worst, he’s Chris Hogan who is intelligent enough to exploit seems in zones but struggles against man coverage. But early returns suggest Meyers is better than that. He’s very shifty and accelerates fast for a guy his size, plus those hands.

denverpatsfan said:

When were these times taken? During the draft? These players all develop over time.

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Knowing the honesty of some beat writers, I'd suspect some of these 40 times were taken after some of the guys just got out of a strip club hopped up on hops, wings, and probably some other stuff that would get them a suspension for a few games.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

Agree to disagree. I see basically total randomness when it comes to the success (and some randomness with game speed) of these players, based on 40 times. What inspires hope is the reality that he’s clearly able to get separation, which is the whole point of being fast. There’s a list of “speedsters” on there that did less in their careers than Meyers has already done. At worst, he’s Chris Hogan who is intelligent enough to exploit seems in zones but struggles against man coverage. But early returns suggest Meyers is better than that. He’s very shifty and accelerates fast for a guy his size, plus those hands.

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Of the first 16 fastest players you listed, 14 were WRs, and two were not. Of the next 13 listed only 4 were WRs and 9 were not. That’s not random, it means WRs are typically faster than TEs and RBs, and he’s got typical TE and RB speed.

I don’t know, the guy might make it, but this list doesn’t show speed is unimportant for WRs.