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I believe that this is correct statistical approach.
Where I disagree a bit is with the estimates with regard to DAL, HOU and KC. I think that they are all high, by about 10% each.
Where I disagree a bit is with the estimates with regard to DAL, HOU and KC. I think that they are all high, by about 10% each.
Sunday, October 27 Cleveland Browns: my estimate: 95% win chance
Sunday, November 3 at Baltimore Ravens: my estimate: 60% win chance
BYE WEEK
Sunday, November 17 at Philadelphia Eagles: my estimate: 75% win chance
Sunday, November 24 Dallas Cowboys: my estimate: 90% win chance
Sunday, December 1 at Houston Texans: my estimate: 65% win chance
Sunday, December 8 Kansas City Chiefs: my estimate: 75% win chance
Sunday, December 15 at Cincinnati Bengals: my estimate: 99% win chance
December 21 or 22 Buffalo Bills: my estimate: 90% win chance
Sunday, December 29 Miami Dolphins: my estimate: 99% win chance
odds of 16-0, from here:
0.95 x 0.6 x 0.75 x 0.9 x 0.65 x 0.75 x 0.99 x 0.90 x 0.99
= 17% change of going 16-0
So, while I see pretty good odds for every game, it is still a steep hill to climb. You have to expect a few stumbles.