Let's take a deeper look into the Dawg Pound
QB – Baker Mayfield was a QB I favorably compared to Brees before he was drafted. His freshman year said I may be right. His sophomore slump says otherwise. It's fair to point out that he HAS NOT been as bad as his stats indicate. Then again, even he has only been half as bad as his stats say that's still no where good enough. Besides his interceptions he takes way more sacks than he should.
OL – This is a solid unit that has been healthy pretty much all year long. Chris Hubbard and Greg Robinson are the tackles. Hubbard is usually okay but is having a down year. Robinson is having maybe his best year on a prove it deal. Still not great though. Joel Bitonio, Eric Kush are the Guards. Joel is a beast. Kush is pretty bad. The Center J C Tretter is good. Tretter and Bitonio are a big reason they can run so well. While this unit has it's issues they are overall good run blockers. Not so much pass blockers; particularly on the edge. One minor note. A lot of their key interior backups are on IR. If any of these guys goes down during the course of the game their absence will be felt strongly.
RB – Nick Chubb needs no introduction. We all know how dynamic he can be. Surprisingly no one else really runs for Cleveland. He has 114 of their 136 rush attempts. That includes QB runs and WR runs too. That being said everyone who runs behind this line has done well. That goes to show that while Chubb is an electric player he tends to get good lanes. Also, it shows they don't run a lot. They average about 21-22 designed run plays a game.
WR/Pass catcher – For all the air time this unit gets it really is a 2 man show. Landry, OBJ then a bunch of JAGs looking for scraps. That may have to do more with Mayfield than the WR core, but it think it's most likely both. They do have a TE who gets thrown the occasional 1-2 balls per game, but he isn't someone the Pats need to worry about. The 3rd option is really Chubb who has a respectable 128 yards on 20 catches. It is worth noting he has more YAC yards than total yards (152 vs 128). The pats need to expect those short behind the line passes. He can catch but he isn't a route runner. They don't really have a preferred #3 at this time. Maybe they are moving towards Antonio Callaway? Hard to say, but it shouldn't matter
TE – They like to play with usually at least 1 TE most of the time. Demetrius Harris sees the most snaps as a blocker. They use Pharaoh Brown there a bit too with Ricky Seals-Jones seeing the fewest snaps but being their pass catcher. Expect to see a lot of 6 or even 7 man fronts.
Overall on offense they keep it pretty simple. Landry, OBJ and Chubb stay on the field with 1 blocking TE. The 11th guy depends but it is reasonably likely to be a WR.
DE – A typical straight forward front 4. They apparently have this guy call Myles Garrett. Doubt you've heard of him; but apparently he isn't half bad. Olivier Vernon is his running mate on the other side and is a bit underrated right now. Don't sleep on him. Their back ups rarely see the field and are only okay. One minor note. While PFF likes Garrett they don't love him this year. Interesting. Maybe they feel his run D isn't up to snuff? They actually like Vernon more this year surprisingly. Doesn't mean it's true in reality but interesting to note none the less.
DT – Sheldon Richardson is a familiar name. Still doing his thing at a high level. Larry Ogunjobi sees the field a lot next to him and is capable but not good. Their back ups also don't see the field that much. If you do see someone else it's likely to be Davaroe Lawrence and he sucks. Generally 75-80% of the time you will see these 4 DL men on the field.
LB – Joe Schobert doesn't leave the field, and for good reason. The guy is a tackling machine, but not a big play guy IMO. Mack Wilson also has barely been off the field in his last 4 games. Adarius Taylor is listed as a starter on their depth chart but he barely gets on the field. It's truly the Wilson and Schobert show. Just FYI; PFF has Schobert as a good player over the last few years but having a bad year, I think that's more due to Mack though. Mack Wilson is a rookie going through massive growing pains. The one glaring weak spot of an otherwise very good front.
Their base is really more of a 4-2-5 than anything else and they have the front 6 personnel to run it.
CB – Denzel Ward has been out since week 2 and is the clear #1 CB. He will probably be ready to play this game and with the bye week to rest I expect him to be pretty effective. That being said he is a 2nd year player so it isn't a sure thing he'll be the same guy as last year. We don't have enough snaps yet to know for sure. Greedy Williams should back as well. He was doing okay as a rookie before going down. Travis Carrie is probably their #3 and has seen a lot of time on the field. You could also argue their #3 is Terrance Mitchell. Neither are bad. They've struggled as front line guys but should be good #3s. It's impossible to say what they will come out with here. It is worth noting before their CBs got hurt they were more likely to run 3 Safeties than 3 CBs. But who knows if that means anything.
S – Damarious Randall is an okay FS. They tend to play Eric Murray a good amount, much to their dismay. Morgan Burnett was projected as the starting SS but that may have changed. His snaps since missing games 3 and 4 have gone way down. In any case Jermaine Whitehead has been hogging nearly all the SS snaps and while his play has been HIGHLY questionable I don't expect that to change. If I had to make a call I would say Whitehead is now the starter with Burnett being the back up. But IDK what Whitehead has done to earn that spot. They are pretty weak here.
Overall this unit on D has a lot of talent but they are thin. Our defense should know very well what their offense will do. Our offense will have a hard time preparing with so many unknowns. Could be a low scoring or a blow out. Neither 20-10 or 35-3 would surprise me.
