Pat McAfee discusses, in detail, the story / logic behind the dumbest play in NFL history

slam said:

If you'd shown me the slomo of the play to this point and asked me what the probable result of this play was, I have guessed 30% TD, 20% caught and stopped short (which is bad too for this situation), 49% incomplete, and 1% or less turnover. I want my QB to throw that. A QB who needs to see a receiver open before he'll throw is trending to Luke Falk territory.

If you showed a snapshot of Brady right before he threw the miracle deflected pass to Edelman in the Falcons Super Bowl you'd be horrified. Why's he throwing into tight triple coverage? Or most back shoulder throws. They don't look open but based on design, understanding of defenses, and practice, you assume they'll be completed a high enough percentage of the time. But sometimes the defender makes superlative plays.

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My only point is that the execution failed. Bevell can’t do anything at that point. The QB is the last “kill switch” so to speak, as only he can change the concept post-snap. From that angle, it is not a promising result. Could have thrown it lower...Butler is supposed to be blocked out of the play and is completely untouched bearing down on the exact trajectory of the ball. Again, I think a lot of QBs would have recognized the danger there. While the Butler interception was extremely unlikely, a deflected ball that pops in the air was not that unlikely. Agree to disagree? I understand and appreciate your point.

Sure! Agree to disagree. And “throw the ball lower to minimize risk” is a fine critique of the play. Just don’t think “don’t throw that based on what you can see” is realistic.

Patstastic said:

If we are just looking at the plays itself, and not just the circumstances, I agree that the Dolts play was the dumbest. Apparently someone snapped the ball when they shouldn't have.

The play call itself (With Seattle) was bizarre in the sense Lynch had been killing the Pats on the ground all game.

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Earlier in the game, on a 1st and goal from the 5, the Patriots had held Lynch to a 1 yard gain. On the drive before that, on a 3rd and 1 from the Patriots 8, Lynch was held to no gain. Prior to that, on a first and goal situation, Lynch ran for 5 yards, 3 yards and 3 yards.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

Butler is supposed to be the picked player, not Browner. At the moment of this snapshot, it’s a completely blown up play. We see things quite differently. Look at all the space Wilson has to see the play.

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It's not blown up at all, and it has a good chance of success even with Browner's play. No QB in the league would avoid making this throw.

Oswlek said:

It's not blown up at all, and it has a good chance of success even with Browner's play. No QB in the league would avoid making this throw.

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Okay, it isn't blown up when the guy who is supposed to set a pick, in order to free up the receiver, gets completely stonewalled? Then what's the point of even running a pick play? Why not just throw a quick pass without the pick? Of course the play got blown up. That is not a good chance of success. Sure, an interception is still a low chance, but just throwing a naked slant like that is not a good play call there.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

Okay, it isn't blown up when the guy who is supposed to set a pick, in order to free up the receiver, gets completely stonewalled?

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No. And certainly not in this instance when the receiver still has yards of space and inches to go for the score. It would have taken a near miraculous play to stop, let alone pick.... which is precisely why Butler's play is so historic.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

Then what's the point of even running a pick play?

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To free up space to make the throw easier.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

Why not just throw a quick pass without the pick?

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That's pretty much how it turned out. And the receiver was still open.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

That is not a good chance of success.

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Yes, it is. Even without the pick, that pass is completed more often than not, and a majority of those completions are touchdowns.

I don't think you understand just how remarkable a play Butler made here, or how little space there often is in "routine" NFL pass plays. Or even how often a successful play has guys failing to do their job. When Wilson threw the ball it was, without question, the right thing to do. It took a once in a lifetime play to stop it, and thankfully for us, we were on the receiving end of it.

The "Do Your Job" video of that play covers the team practicing against the play, with Bill crediting Ernie Adams for coming up with probable plays the Seahawks might run near the goal line which deserve practice reps. But no mention is given to how that play got on the list.

So, I started looking at box scores of Seahawks games in 2014 with a focus on short TD passes. For those I found, I looked up corresponding YouTube footage of those plays. No Seahawks TD in 2014 matched. Hmmm.

So I then went to 2013, starting with SB48 and working backwards. Here is what i found in week 13 against the Saints. Jump to the 27:23 timestamp...



I stopped my search there, but perhaps there are more examples. In any case, one thing is for sure:

Ernie Adams is a ****ing computer!

Regards,
Chris

More from week 8 against the Rams in 2013. Jump to the 45:39 timestamp:



Regards,
Chris

chris_in_sunnyvale said:

So I then went to 2013, starting with SB48 and working backwards. Here is what i found in week 13 against the Saints. Jump to the 27:23 timestamp...



I stopped my search there, but perhaps there are more examples. In any case, one thing is for sure:

Ernie Adams is a ****ing computer!

Regards,
Chris

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And that play even had Beast Mode being stoned on a run to the left right before it.

QuantumMechanic said:

And that play even had Beast Mode being stoned on a run to the left right before it.

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I noticed that, too, so I actually compared play calls. SB49 featured a FB lead while this one did not. Would have been hilarious if Seattle used identical sequences.

Regards,
Chris

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Oswlek said:

No. And certainly not in this instance when the receiver still has yards of space and inches to go for the score. It would have taken a near miraculous play to stop, let alone pick.... which is precisely why Butler's play is so historic.



To free up space to make the throw easier.



That's pretty much how it turned out. And the receiver was still open.



Yes, it is. Even without the pick, that pass is completed more often than not, and a majority of those completions are touchdowns.

I don't think you understand just how remarkable a play Butler made here, or how little space there often is in "routine" NFL pass plays. Or even how often a successful play has guys failing to do their job. When Wilson threw the ball it was, without question, the right thing to do. It took a once in a lifetime play to stop it, and thankfully for us, we were on the receiving end of it.

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Teething people always miss about this play from an execution point of view is the dogs*t catching technique by Lockette. His hands are the wrong way and he doesn't fully extend. He tries to get the ball into his body. Doing that meant Bulter could be closer to him and want it more.

I think they avoided a roll out pass by Wilson as it takes around 7 seconds to spot should the clock be running. If Bill took a time out they would have had time to do that. BB played the man so well in that situation. They would have been left with 13 seconds likely have to use their TO and probably can't run a 4th down play without calling a quick pass on third, which is probably this play anyway, although the pats would maybe be in different personnel.

The quick pass play on second down was the right call it took too long for them to call it Carroll should have been ready with it sooner. I wonder how much 2011 played into each coaches decision making.

Let me explain how the Patriots were prepared for that play...