All the other AFC 2 loss teams... a lot of them play each other still

mosslost · Oct 18, 2019

All the other AFC 2 loss teams... a lot of them play each other still

Depending on how those games go, and if the Chiefs struggle, as long as the Bills don't hang around until week 16, the Pats "could" lock things up kind of early as far as HFA

EDIT: And no, it's not too early!

mosslost · Oct 18, 2019

Unless the Bills are still secretly the Bills I see them going 13-3. Their schedule is so soft. They will lose on thanksgiving at Dallas as their second loss. Their third loss will be NE

Joey007 · Oct 18, 2019

mosslost said:
Unless the Bills are still secretly the Bills I see them going 13-3. Their schedule is so soft. They will lose on thanksgiving at Dallas as their second loss. Their third loss will be NE

Ohhh that’s far too generous.

12-4 is the absolute ceiling for then. 10-6 or 11-5 is far more likely.

Clonamery · Oct 18, 2019

Thanks!

mosslost · Oct 18, 2019

Clonamery said:
Thanks!

oh you're welcome.

Ice_Ice_Brady · Oct 18, 2019

I predict a 10-6 tiebreaker lands a bye, if Mahomes misses significant time.

PatsFanSince74 · Oct 18, 2019

Thanks to the OP for an interesting way of thinking about this. I'm off work with some sort of bug, so I had a little time to look into what you're saying.

It's not too early to start thinking this way. First, I picked out the seven AFC teams with a record of .500 or better (none is at exactly .500). I picked that as a cutoff because, in general, if a team isn't at or above .500 going into week 7, it's highly unlikely they'll be making noise later in the season [earlier error corrected]. So, if you want to argue that a 2--4 team this year is better than one of the teams I've picked, I won't argue back. And, yes, of course, the "Any given Sunday" rule and crazily unpredictable Division contests (@Miami last year, anyone?) come into play. But...it's as good a place as any to start.

Then I looked at the remaining games of those seven teams against other teams .500 or better, in both Conferences but with an eye first to other AFC teams for obvious reasons playoff-wise.

Bottom line: I like where the Pats stand and think they could be 9--0 at their Bye week, but there's a lot of football to be played.

Indy and Oakland , with just three games remaining against teams .500 or better. However, there are lots of question marks for both teams. All three of Oakland's games are on the road. [corrected]

Buffalo has four games remaining against such teams, with two in the NFC

KCC and HOU have five games against teams that are .500 or better, KCC has three in the NFC. Three of their five are at home [error corrected]. Mahomes' knee is obviously a big question. All five of HOU's games are in conference, with two on the Road. Deshaun Watson is having a career season. [corrected]

Baltimore and the Pats have the toughest roads by the numbers, with six games remaining for each against teams playing .500 or better now, three in the Conference for BAL and four for the Pats.

Here's the data:

IND: 3--2
HOU 4--2
@HOU 4--2
@NOS 5--1 (NFC)

OAK: 3--2
@HOU 4--2
@KCC 5--2
@GBP 5--1 (NFC)

HOU: 4--2 [corrected]
OAK 4--2
@IND 3--2
@BAL 4--2
IND 3--2
NEP 6--0

BAL 4--2
NEP: 6--0
HOU 4--2
@BUF 4--2
@SEA 5--1 (NFC)
@LAR 3--3 (NFC)
SFO 5--0 (NFC)

BUF 4--1
BAL 4--2
@NEP 6--0
PHL 3--3 (NFC)
@DAL 3--3 (NFC)

KCC 5--2
OAK 3--2
@NEP 6--0
@GBP 5--1
MIN 4--2
CHI 3--2

PATS
@BAL 4--2
@HOU 4--2
KCC 5--2
BUF 4--2
@PHL 3--3 (NFC)
DAL 3--3 (NFC)

Gumby · Oct 18, 2019

@PatsFanSince74 : Ind plays 4-2 Hou two times and Hou doesnt play 3-2 Ind even once in your extract data?

brdmaverick · Oct 18, 2019

Gumby said:
@PatsFanSince74 : Ind plays 4-2 Hou two times and Hou doesnt play 3-2 Ind even once in your extract data?

Good call

Family · Oct 18, 2019

Gumby said:
@PatsFanSince74 : Ind plays 4-2 Hou two times and Hou doesnt play 3-2 Ind even once in your extract data?

The poor guy has a bug, and been a Patriots fan since 74.

We old timers didn't get enough projects like this because the team was never in contention when we were young.

farn · Oct 18, 2019

mosslost said:
Unless the Bills are still secretly the Bills I see them going 13-3. Their schedule is so soft. They will lose on thanksgiving at Dallas as their second loss. Their third loss will be NE

They are not going 13-3. You are a silly boy.

PatsFanSince74 · Oct 18, 2019

Gumby said:
@PatsFanSince74 : Ind plays 4-2 Hou two times and Hou doesnt play 3-2 Ind even once in your extract data?

Good catch. I (and my post) stand corrected. Cut and paste error. I'll blame it on the antibiotics. Thank you.

PatsFanSince74 · Oct 18, 2019

brdmaverick said:
Good call

Agree and thanks to @Gumby. I don't know whether to be embarrassed by the mistake or just happy that someone read the post that carefully. I'll go with a little bit of both.

TB_Helmet · Oct 18, 2019

Houston is looking pretty good. With Mahomes out I see them as our top competition in the AFC. That game where we play them may be for the #1 seed.

SBLIII · Oct 18, 2019

TB_Helmet said:
Houston is looking pretty good. With Mahomes out I see them as our top competition in the AFC. That game where we play them may be for the #1 seed.

I think we will be at least 3 games ahead when we play Houston.

Haterproof · Oct 18, 2019

TB_Helmet said:
Houston is looking pretty good. With Mahomes out I see them as our top competition in the AFC. That game where we play them may be for the #1 seed.

Brisett will do us a favor by giving them their 3rd loss on Sunday!

Ring 6 · Oct 18, 2019

Joey007 said:
Ohhh that’s far too generous.

12-4 is the absolute ceiling for then. 10-6 or 11-5 is far more likely.

This is a team that really should have lost to the jets and bengals and would be 2-3, and 2-2 against crappy teams.
I’d say 8-8 before I’d say 13-3.

SBLIII · Oct 18, 2019

Ring 6 said:
This is a team that really should have lost to the jets and bengals and would be 2-3, and 2-2 against crappy teams.
I’d say 8-8 before I’d say 13-3.

that schedule is easy. No definitive losses on there except at Gillette.

Joey007 · Oct 18, 2019

Ring 6 said:
This is a team that really should have lost to the jets and bengals and would be 2-3, and 2-2 against crappy teams.
I’d say 8-8 before I’d say 13-3.

I don’t think they’ll go 8-8 but I do agree that it would be more likely than 13-3.

mosslost · Oct 18, 2019

PatsFanSince74 said:
Thanks to the OP for an interesting way of thinking about this. I'm off work with some sort of bug, so I had a little time to look into what you're saying.

It's not too early to start thinking this way. First, I picked out the seven AFC teams with a record of .500 or better (none is at exactly .500). I picked that as a cutoff because, in general, if a team isn't at or above .500 going into week 7, it's highly unlikely they'll be making noise later in the season [earlier error corrected]. So, if you want to argue that a 2--4 team this year is better than one of the teams I've picked, I won't argue back. And, yes, of course, the "Any given Sunday" rule and crazily unpredictable Division contests (@Miami last year, anyone?) come into play. But...it's as good a place as any to start.

Then I looked at the remaining games of those seven teams against other teams .500 or better, in both Conferences but with an eye first to other AFC teams for obvious reasons playoff-wise.

Bottom line: I like where the Pats stand and think they could be 9--0 at their Bye week, but there's a lot of football to be played.

Indy and Oakland , with just three games remaining against teams .500 or better. However, there are lots of question marks for both teams. All three of Oakland's games are on the road. [corrected]

Buffalo has four games remaining against such teams, with two in the NFC

KCC and HOU have five games against teams that are .500 or better, KCC has three in the NFC. Three of their five are at home [error corrected]. Mahomes' knee is obviously a big question. All five of HOU's games are in conference, with two on the Road. Deshaun Watson is having a career season. [corrected]

Baltimore and the Pats have the toughest roads by the numbers, with six games remaining for each against teams playing .500 or better now, three in the Conference for BAL and four for the Pats.

Here's the data:

IND: 3--2
HOU 4--2
@HOU 4--2
@NOS 5--1 (NFC)

OAK: 3--2
@HOU 4--2
@KCC 5--2
@GBP 5--1 (NFC)

HOU: 4--2 [corrected]
OAK 4--2
@IND 3--2
@BAL 4--2
IND 3--2
NEP 6--0

BAL 4--2
NEP: 6--0
HOU 4--2
@BUF 4--2
@SEA 5--1 (NFC)
@LAR 3--3 (NFC)
SFO 5--0 (NFC)

BUF 4--1
BAL 4--2
@NEP 6--0
PHL 3--3 (NFC)
@DAL 3--3 (NFC)

KCC 5--2
OAK 3--2
@NEP 6--0
@GBP 5--1
MIN 4--2
CHI 3--2

PATS
@BAL 4--2
@HOU 4--2
KCC 5--2
BUF 4--2
@PHL 3--3 (NFC)
DAL 3--3 (NFC)

the other thing about it is many of the 2 loss teams have some guaranteed losses. Because they face each other, so some of them definitely have a 3rd loss in a sense already.

Pats already have a 2 game lead, and we will do damage too potentially because we face most of these teams ourselves, so we can push them further down.

The only "wild card" to this are the Bills. If they don't go back to their ways, and hang around until week 16, it will actually be a stressful year. (to have HFA be so takable, but not even have the Division locked up)

The AFC is broken

All the other AFC 2 loss teams... a lot of them play each other still

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