OT-ish: The gambling thread

maust1013 said:

The temptation to chase is something I have for the most part learned to tamp down. I still have a weakness for being a bit profligate with found money. I’m working on that...

Click to expand...

“Found” money or house money is still money, or at least that’s what I try and tell myself.

fightingirish595 said:

It’s so nice not betting sometimes. In the past I would’ve forced a bet here.

Click to expand...

Sucker game 100%. Lots of value on the Oakland A’s at +250 versus Verlander (who pitched a fine game), but no one wants to hear about it. If they did, I’d tell them that away teams were 12-3, yesterday.....

My baseball summer has been solid, but my football year is off to a bad start.

supafly said:

“Found” money or house money is still money, or at least that’s what I try and tell myself.

Click to expand...

The operative word being try?

From an embarrassment of riches in Week 1 to next to nothing in Week 2. The only play I have at the moment is Seattle +4.5 for $50. Thinking on TN if the number drops below 3. Anybody finding anything to their liking?
(by 'anybody' I mean somebody that actually makes plays and will actually be risking something)

maust1013 said:

From an embarrassment of riches in Week 1 to next to nothing in Week 2. The only play I have at the moment is Seattle -4.5 for $50. Thinking on TN if the number drops below 3. Anybody finding anything to their liking?
(by 'anybody' I mean somebody that actually makes plays and will actually be risking something)

Click to expand...

The fact that my girlfriend/wife went to UCF has caused me to follow Central Florida more closely than I otherwise would, and resulted in a bit of wagering on the Knights. That's not just to keep peace, but because I truly felt they would cover in their first two games. Those positive wagers have thankfully kept me at just a hair over .500 thus far, so take my advice with a large grain of salt considering the proximity of my advice to that of a monkey flinging poop at one of two targets on the wall.

I like the Chicago defense to stifle a mediocre Denver offense, even though the Bears are on the road and their offense sucks. A last minute wager on the under last week almost offset my incorrectly taking Chicago against Green Bay last week.

Another game I like is the Rams at home minus-2 versus New Orleans. I was down on LA in week one and lo$t that one, but the Saints are now on the road and due for a letdown after barely winning a nail biter - and on a short week. Could be a bit of a flat game for NO.

SF is playing on the road for the second straight week. It is rare for a good team to win two consecutive games three time zones away, never mind an average team. As bad as the Bengals are, I'm going with Cincy over 49er road fatigue.

Last game I am considering is Jax plus nine points at Houston. Texans should win, but that seems like far too many points considering how shaky Houston was (6 sacks and 510 yards allowed).

There's my two cents... have at it, there are many here that fare better at this endeavor than I.

jmt57 said:

The fact that my girlfriend/wife went to UCF has caused me to follow Central Florida more closely than I otherwise would, and resulted in a bit of wagering on the Knights. That's not just to keep peace, but because I truly felt they would cover in their first two games. Those positive wagers have thankfully kept me at just a hair over .500 thus far, so take my advice with a large grain of salt considering the proximity of my advice to that of a monkey flinging poop at one of two targets on the wall.

I like the Chicago defense to stifle a mediocre Denver offense, even though the Bears are on the road and their offense sucks. A last minute wager on the under last week almost offset my incorrectly taking Chicago against Green Bay last week.

Another game I like is the Rams at home minus-2 versus New Orleans. I was down on LA in week one and lo$t that one, but the Saints are now on the road and due for a letdown after barely winning a nail biter - and on a short week. Could be a bit of a flat game for NO.

SF is playing on the road for the second straight week. It is rare for a good team to win two consecutive games three time zones away, never mind an average team. As bad as the Bengals are, I'm going with Cincy over 49er road fatigue.

Last game I am considering is Jax plus nine points at Houston. Texans should win, but that seems like far too many points considering how shaky Houston was (6 sacks and 510 yards allowed).

There's my two cents... have at it, there are many here that fare better at this endeavor than I.

Click to expand...

Agree the Chicago defense could easily cover the -2 in Denver but their offense is just as capable of giving it right back, The O/U there is a straight 40 and I don't think they hit it unless the FG kickers have incredible days. $50 against the topside.

I was thinking very much the opposite on LA/NOLA. I don't trust that game at all. Why the hell isn't LA giving the standard home 3? It's fluctuating between 1.5-2. I won't bet a game when I don't understand the line.

I don't feel I have any kind of handle on who SF & Cincy are at all. Cincy surprised me by having more fight in them than I expected in Week 1 but SF has considerably more talent, albeit uneven. Sitting on a pick em I'll take the home team for a tepid $50 but confidence is not high.

Houston should win comfortably at home but who the hell knows what Minshew will bring to the table in a start? The O/U on the other hand is at 43, I'm liking the top there for $50.

TN has been at -3 all week and this morning I caught them at -2.5 so I took it while it was there for another weak ass $50. Can't help but think minus their below average QB situation they'd be a team to watch. But it is what it is and what it is for TN is they have two fairly decent backups and no viable starter. There was a time I thought under the right circumstances Mariota could be brought along to be a middle of the road caliber NFL starter, then he landed in the wrong circumstances and here we are.

*There was a typo in my previous post. Seattle is getting that 4.5 not giving it. I wanted to bump that bet but the number has dropped to Pitt only giving the standard home 3. You snooze, you lose.

So overall I have a collection of candy azz $5o bets that don't add up to what I would make on even one number that I feel anywhere near good about. Week 1 giveth, Week 2 taketh. WTF is up with that? Hardly what we normally see.

maust1013 said:

Week 1 giveth, Week 2 taketh. WTF is up with that? Hardly what we normally see.

Click to expand...

How do you generally feel about betting in the first four weeks ?

I generally try to avoid September to get a handle on who the teams actually are vs. who we thought they were based on reports and whatnot.

I like Pittsburgh a lot today. Home opener. And I think they should be able to control both lines of scrimmage

Jags getting over a TD @houston... I want to tease Houston, but I smell a rat in that game. I feel like the jags are going to play well and the game will go down to the wire

luuked said:

How do you generally feel about betting in the first four weeks ?

I generally try to avoid September to get a handle on who the teams actually are vs. who we thought they were based on reports and whatnot.

Click to expand...

Normally I tread very carefully in the first few weeks as can be seen by this week's small amounts spread out over a handful of games. This year presented a lot of Week 1 opportunity against some surprisingly attractive numbers. The Pats at home against Pitt giving less than 7? Sign me up!!! Likewise the O/U was a gift. Miami should have been double digit dogs, Houston was far too good a team to be getting 7.5 and so on. Week 1 just doesn't normally provide like that, it usually looks like this week does. For me at least, as the trends get clearer the bets get fewer but bigger.

fightingirish595 said:

Jags getting over a TD @houston... I want to tease Houston, but I smell a rat in that game. I feel like the jags are going to play well and the game will go down to the wire

Click to expand...

#teamWatson.

fightingirish595 said:

I like Pittsburgh a lot today. Home opener. And I think they should be able to control both lines of scrimmage

Click to expand...

Please define "a lot" in terms of $ and how they will contain Wilson. We are not seeing the same thing here and I need to fathom what I am missing. OFC the difference in what we see may be accounted for by the different number you are looking at now vs what I took earlier in the week

Seattle usually loses their first road game of the season but that doesn't mean I LOVE PIT -4. I see PIT winning but took SEA +4. Thinking field goal game.

SBLIII said:

Seattle usually loses their first road game of the season but that doesn't mean I LOVE PIT -4. I see PIT winning but took SEA +4. Thinking field goal game.

Click to expand...

Then you'd have probably liked them even more at 4.5. What's the investment?

maust1013 said:

Please define "a lot" in terms of $ and how they will contain Wilson. We are not seeing the same thing here and I need to fathom what I am missing. OFC the difference in what we see may be accounted for by the different number you are looking at now vs what I took earlier in the week

Click to expand...

I can get -3 at -130. If I bet them I’d rather just moneyline either 1st half or the entire game.

1 o’clock game for a west coast team playing on the east coast. That’s favorable too for Pitt.

Pitts home opener, I’m sure they will honor drake before the game. So there’s the death bet factor too.

I just like this matchup for them. If I decide to bet the game which I don’t think I will because I’m trying to limit my betting, I see my self mineylining the Steelers... first half... to win 50

Parlay

Bills -2
Steelers -3.5

Bills defense is top 5 & the Giants are out of WRs.

Seattle will feel the presence of Heyward-Tuitt-Hargrave & Watt more than the Pats did. Pitt is also going from facing the best CBs in the NFL to arguably the worst.

Moneyline

Jaguars +280

Texans defense is sneaky bad & Minshew looked great last week. Like the value even with some Jags defenders out.

fightingirish595 said:

I can get -3 at -130. If I bet them I’d rather just moneyline either 1st half or the entire game.

1 o’clock game for a west coast team playing on the east coast. That’s favorable too for Pitt.

Pitts home opener, I’m sure they will honor drake before the game. So there’s the death bet factor too.

I just like this matchup for them. If I decide to bet the game which I don’t think I will because I’m trying to limit my betting, I see my self mineylining the Steelers... first half... to win 50

Click to expand...

I guess I misunderstood what might have been meant by "a lot."
TBH there nothing this weekend I like a lot

patsinthesnow said:

Parlay

Bills -2
Steelers -3.5

Bills defense is top 5 & the Giants are out of WRs.

Seattle will feel the presence of Heyward-Tuitt-Hargrave & Watt more than the Pats did. Pitt is also going from facing the best CBs in the NFL to arguably the worst.

Moneyline

Jaguars +280

Texans defense is sneaky bad & Minshew looked great last week. Like the value even with some Jags defenders out.

Click to expand...

I keep coming back and kicking the tires on the Bills, they seem undervalued and I don't understand why. Which makes me leery. OFC it could simply be the always substantial NYG money that's holding that number down.

What say you fellow degenerates? Are the Bills giving up less than a FG the value they appear to be? Could it be I've underestimated the Giants bettors influencing the line?

maust1013 said:

I keep coming back and kicking the tires on the Bills, they seem undervalued and I don't understand why. Which makes me leery. OFC it could simply be the always substantial NYG money that's holding that number down.

What say you fellow degenerates? Are the Bills giving up less than a FG the value they appear to be? Could it be I've underestimated the Giants bettors influencing the line?

Click to expand...

I have a hard time backing josh Allen. Eli is still competent with protection. Giants are vastly improved on the offensive line. I don’t really have a feel as to who will win this game. Unsure as to how the giants will handle the bills front. And The giant defense is pitiful.

Basically this is a game I don’t have a strong opinion on because I don’t have a strong opinion on how certain matchups will work out.

I think it’s a TD game either way though

fightingirish595 said:

Jags getting over a TD @houston... I want to tease Houston, but I smell a rat in that game. I feel like the jags are going to play well and the game will go down to the wire

Click to expand...

I took the Jags in my underdog pool (and I think a money line bet is good value), but I also get the sense this is going to be a 20+ point blowout based on the line...something is off.