Brady, Brees, Manning

QuantumMechanic said:

Simpson's Paradox, probably.

Simpson's paradox - Wikipedia

In particular, scroll down to the "Batting Averages" heading, where there's an example of where David Justice had a higher batting average than Derek Jeter in 1995 and in 1996, but Jeter had the higher average for the two years combined.

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I enjoy learning about things like "Simpson's paradox" through a football forum. The different ways that people approach things around here is one of the reasons I enjoy it so much.

Flash said:

Brady shouldn't even be in the discussion with Brees and Manning. He has outgrown those after his Falcons Super Bowl win.

A far more interesting topic would be Brees vs. Manning vs. Rodgers, the three best QBs after Brady in the 21st century. I'd go Rodgers > Manning = Brees when it's all said and done.

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I'd put it as Manning > Rodgers = Brees. Manning had his team in the hunt year after year and won two Super Bowls. If Brady weren't around, we'd have Manning as the most successful quarterback of this era. Rodgers sold his team down the river with his massive contracts.

Also, Manning had to go through the Patriots every year. If you put him in the NFC, I bet Manning has 3-4 rings because he'd be in the big dance every other year or so.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

1. Manning
2. Rodgers*
3. Brees

*The moment Patrick Mahomes becomes eligible for career efficiency stats, Aaron Rodgers drops to #3 here and about 10 slots on the all-time rankings list. That’s the steep price you pay for spending your career dedicated to your QB rating instead of winning games.

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I go Brees Rodgers Manning.

I could be convinced to put Manning ahead of Rodgers I suppose but I would take Brees over either.

The reason to pick Rodgers over Manning is cause of his one very good post season run when he won the super bowl. Something Manning never did.

However part of me can't get past the fact that Rodgers cares about his stat line more than winning.

Say what you will about Manning but I never considered him a guy that would put style points or stat lines over winning. Yeah he wanted to be the man and was greedy at times but there is a difference between wanting to be the guy to score and not wanting to be the guy who makes a risky pass that might be intercepted cause he hates throwing ints.

MainePatsFan26 said:

I'd put it as Manning > Rodgers = Brees. Manning had his team in the hunt year after year and won two Super Bowls. If Brady weren't around, we'd have Manning as the most successful quarterback of this era. Rodgers sold his team down the river with his massive contracts.

Also, Manning had to go through the Patriots every year. If you put him in the NFC, I bet Manning has 3-4 rings because he'd be in the big dance every other year or so.

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Manning always had a tendency to choke in the biggest games, going back to his college days. I'm not so sure those additional rings fall into his lap.

Kinda crazy how Brady has so little done games. I feel like the NFC has way more dome stadiums than the AFC though without thinking about it.

Atlanta
New Orleans
Dallas sort of
Minnesota is retractable now right?
St. Louis played in a dome
Detroit
Arizona retractable?

AFC
Indy
Houston retractable?

I think that’s it

so let's see

rodgers and brees are very similar...good stats, inconsistent in reg season so only got their teams to the playoffs sometimes, inconsistent in playoffs, 1SB win ea

manning also has good stats, but much more consistent in reg season, inconsistent in post season, 2SB wins

i'd have to put manning above brees and rodgers simply because they were all inconsistent in the post season, but only manning of the three got his team to the post season consistently

BobDigital said:

It is fun to look at the numbers but I don't know if this even needs to be brought in the context of how it reflects on Brady.

Brees vs Manning is a very fun conversation to have. Both have areas over the other you can point to. Personally at this point while I have certain reservations about Brees compared to Manning, Brees is the playoffs has been miles better and that should give him the nod over Manning all time I think.

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Here's a new metric to compare them by, or any other two QB's:

How many times did they have to face Brady, and how many times did they win in those face-offs?

And before anyone gets all Patsfanny smartass mode - yes, I know, the QB's aren't on the field at the same time, but obviously a QB can win a game for his team, which means he had to play enough offense to beat the opposing QB.

What I'm getting at, is maybe Manning gets a nod in that direction. He faced off against Brady quite often, and as much as we're all sold on how much better Brady is, I've never been quite as worried about a game against Brees than I have against Manning.

That'd be an awesome metric lol -

How many games played in a dome?
Outside field?
Against Brady?

Lol.

Manning's GM, Bill Polian was also the head of the NFL competition committee while Manning was in his mid twenties. Polian had DB rules changed that severely crippled secondaries league wide, to BENEFIT his turd burglar egomaniacal scumbag QB. I get it that many NFL fans have to promote their love for Manling above and beyond anything that Tom Brady has done without ANY league benefit. I also get that these "fans" are pinheaded, myopic MORONS that steal oxygen from the rest of the human race on a daily basis.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

1. Manning
2. Rodgers*
3. Brees

*The moment Patrick Mahomes becomes eligible for career efficiency stats, Aaron Rodgers drops to #3 here and about 10 slots on the all-time rankings list. That’s the steep price you pay for spending your career dedicated to your QB rating instead of winning games.

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ONE FRICKIN SEASON.

Mahomes is the 5th “once in a generation” talent of last 10 years

Biffins said:

ONE FRICKIN SEASON.

Mahomes is the 5th “once in a generation” talent of last 10 years

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Mahomes is the best young QB I have ever seen. The hype is justified.

He is the best, case closed.

If we're talking 'pickup' football with no time to prepare then yeah maybe you'd take Mahomes or Rogers.

But this isn't BS fantasy nonsense or who is the most flashy with strongest arm. This is the power train position that drives America's #1 sport.

Tom and BB coming together is greatness attracting towards greatness.

No one will ever be greater then Tom Brady or Bill Bellichick. We are witnessing the absolute pinnacle.

PS Manning and Brees are both top 5 legends of the sport, but Tom the best

The way the man plays in the snow is borderline ridiculous. The titans (09) and Bears (10) games come to mind as some masterful games in terrible conditions. Man among boys.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

1. Manning
2. Rodgers*
3. Brees

*The moment Patrick Mahomes becomes eligible for career efficiency stats, Aaron Rodgers drops to #3 here and about 10 slots on the all-time rankings list. That’s the steep price you pay for spending your career dedicated to your QB rating instead of winning games.

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I think Brees has a case over Rodgers. I havent seen many better at manipulating coverage, esp LBs than Drew. In terms of QBs over the past 10-20 years Rivers is right there w Rodgers as well imo.

Tb12goesinya said:

He is the best, case closed.

If we're talking 'pickup' football with no time to prepare then yeah maybe you'd take Mahomes or Rogers.

But this isn't BS fantasy nonsense or who is the most flashy with strongest arm. This is the power train position that drives America's #1 sport.

Tom and BB coming together is greatness attracting towards greatness.

No one will ever be greater then Tom Brady or Bill Bellichick. We are witnessing the absolute pinnacle.

PS Manning and Brees are both top 5 legends of the sport, but Tom the best

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What is so great about what they've done is that there is literally no living player who can challenge their playoff records and winning percentages, etc. Like if a QB is to catch or break Brady's record he isn't in the league yet. Mahomes would have to run train on the league for the next 20 years to have a shot and I just don't see the planets aligning again like that in our lifetimes. And Brady and BB aren't done yet!

Tb12goesinya said:

He is the best, case closed.

If we're talking 'pickup' football with no time to prepare then yeah maybe you'd take Mahomes or Rogers.

But this isn't BS fantasy nonsense or who is the most flashy with strongest arm. This is the power train position that drives America's #1 sport.

Tom and BB coming together is greatness attracting towards greatness.

No one will ever be greater then Tom Brady or Bill Bellichick. We are witnessing the absolute pinnacle.

PS Manning and Brees are both top 5 legends of the sport, but Tom the best

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Right on, until the last sentence. Now you’re back to fantasy football again.

The Brandon Five said:

So, given that the other #12 plays in the frozen tundra of Green Bay I'd say he is a good comp for Brady.

Rodgers:
Dome - 26 g, 109 rating
Outdoors - 134 g, 101.6 rating
Retroof - 5 g, 113.9 rating

OVERALL - 166 g, 103.1 rating

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Yes, but there is a whole lot more than the comparison of the two QBs raw stats.

2001: Brady became a starting QB
2008: Rodgers became a starting QB


Between those years Bill Polian and his friends on the Competition Committee were directing 'points of emphasis' as well as actual changes to the rulebook that would aid their own team and hurt opponents that potentially stood in their way. Polian's plan was to help a team built on a passing offense (ie, his Colts) and diminish the strategy of a strong defense such as the Patriots (or Steelers or Ravens).

Without looking it up, I am sure 2001 league-wide passer stats were lower than those same numbers in 2008, 2002 less than 2009, '03 less than '10, etc.



Even though it is just a seven-year difference, Polian's quest to tilt the scales in his own team's favor forever skewed a comparison of year-to-year passing (or receiving) statistics.

Accurately comparing the statistics of Rodgers to Brady also requires an adjustment for the years in which they played, despite AR and TB playing in the same era. The difference is significant enough that we may as well be comparing a current QB to Unitas.

MainePatsFan26 said:

I'd put it as Manning > Rodgers = Brees. Manning had his team in the hunt year after year and won two Super Bowls. If Brady weren't around, we'd have Manning as the most successful quarterback of this era. Rodgers sold his team down the river with his massive contracts.

Also, Manning had to go through the Patriots every year. If you put him in the NFC, I bet Manning has 3-4 rings because he'd be in the big dance every other year or so.

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Nah. He went one and done a lot of times against teams not named the patriots

MainePatsFan26 said:

I'd put it as Manning > Rodgers = Brees. Manning had his team in the hunt year after year and won two Super Bowls. If Brady weren't around, we'd have Manning as the most successful quarterback of this era. Rodgers sold his team down the river with his massive contracts.

Also, Manning had to go through the Patriots every year. If you put him in the NFC, I bet Manning has 3-4 rings because he'd be in the big dance every other year or so.

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He was 3-2 vs New England. 11-11 vs every other team. And neither of the teams that lost to NE (2003, 2004) were among his best.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

He was 3-2 vs New England. 11-11 vs every other team. And neither of the teams that lost to NE (2003, 2004) were among his best.

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You make good points. In particular with Manning going 11-11 against other competition.

My main thing to add would be that the Patriots' constant success caused Manning and other AFC teams to be perpetually a lower seed on average than would have been the case against any other NFL squad over that period. That fact matters when one considers that home-field advantage was so important to Manning and Brady head-to-head in the postseason. When Manning was with the Colts, the three playoff games between Manning/Brady were decided by home turf; likewise, when he went to the Broncos, the two playoff games between the pair also aligned with the home team.

If the Patriots were an average squad, the Colts (who were also perennial contenders) would be in a position to be a much higher seed. With the Broncos, who managed to be #1 seed three times with Manning despite the Patriots being in the same conference, the Broncos advanced twice to the Super Bowl and won once.

One can only imagine, based on the importance of home-field between these two, what would have happened in 2004 if the regular season match up we won was at Indy instead of New England. Say Indy wins that game and finished tied at 13-3 with the Patriots along with the tiebreaker for #1 seed. Based on these trends, Indy then wins in the championship game hosted in Indy instead of Foxboro and advances to the Super Bowl. I'd like to think the Patriots would not have been beaten twice in the same year, but it is an intriguing scenario.

None of this makes Manning less of a choke artist in a number of important games. But I do suspect if you place the Colts/Broncos in the NFC during that window, Manning probably advances to 1-2 more Super Bowls and probably retires with 3. But who knows, it is purely hypothetical.

Tb12goesinya said:

He is the best, case closed.

If we're talking 'pickup' football with no time to prepare then yeah maybe you'd take Mahomes or Rogers.

But this isn't BS fantasy nonsense or who is the most flashy with strongest arm. This is the power train position that drives America's #1 sport.

Tom and BB coming together is greatness attracting towards greatness.

No one will ever be greater then Tom Brady or Bill Bellichick. We are witnessing the absolute pinnacle.

PS Manning and Brees are both top 5 legends of the sport, but Tom the best

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Manning and Brees do not make my top 5 QBs all time let alone top 5 NFL players all time.

Everyone has their method but I believe you can’t compare well across eras so you pick the best if each era to start then do your best to sort between them.

40s-50s - Graham
60s - Start
70s - Staubach
80s - Montana
90s - Favre
00s-10s - Brady

My ranking:

1. Brady
2. Montana
3. Staubach
4. Graham
5. Starr
6. Favre

So naturally Manning and Brees would sit outside that, let alone Rodgers. Why would being the 2nd or 3rd best QB in an era be better than any of these others who dominated the position at their time. This adjusts for rules changes and evolution of the game.

Let me put it another way. Who was the 2nd best QB during 40s-50s? Oh wait, noone cares. Who was 2nd best QB during 60s? Noone cares. 70s? Some might start mentioning Unitas’ sterling career but memories are fading. 80s? Now it’s getting more recent and people will mention Marino but noone is saying Marino as top 5 alltime like they did then. 90s? More recent and you’ll see mention of Elway or Young but not really.

Similarly now with Manning and Brees. We’ve got recency bias. Manning’s memory will become like Marino or Unitas and eventually fade from that as well. Decades from now people will only remember that Tom dominated this era and they will only compare him to those who dominated other eras, like maybe Mahomes during 20s etc.