Brady, Brees, Manning

ivanvamp · Sep 12, 2019

Michael Hurley tweets:

This is really crazy, if Pro Football Reference's indoor/outdoor split is accurate.

Percentage of games played in dome/retractable roof:
Brees: 52.7%
Manning: 48.9%
Brady: 8.2%

So ok interesting topic. Here are their career passer ratings in domes, outdoors, and in retroroof stadiums (I think these are regular season only):

Dome
- Brady: 14 g, 109.0 rating
- Brees: 128 g, 104.2 rating
- Manning: 92 g, 99.1 rating

Outdoors
- Brady: 247 g, 96.9 rating
- Brees: 125 g, 91.2 rating
- Manning: 136 g, 94.0 rating

Retroof
- Brady: 8 g, 100.4 rating
- Brees: 11 g, 89.9 rating
- Manning: 38 g, 99.2 rating

OVERALL
- Brady: 270 g, 97.7 rating
- Brees: 265 g, 97.7 rating
- Manning: 266 g, 96.5 rating

So even though the overall passer ratings are very very close, Brady is substantially better than either of them in every conceivable field situation. The only reason it's close at all is because the other two have played so many more games in domes.

Zarozzor · Sep 12, 2019

Dome Midget

@Ice_Ice_Brady

upstater1 · Sep 12, 2019

ivanvamp said:
Michael Hurley tweets:

This is really crazy, if Pro Football Reference's indoor/outdoor split is accurate.

Percentage of games played in dome/retractable roof:
Brees: 52.7%
Manning: 48.9%
Brady: 8.2%

So ok interesting topic. Here are their career passer ratings in domes, outdoors, and in retroroof stadiums (I think these are regular season only):

Dome
- Brady: 14 g, 109.0 rating
- Brees: 128 g, 104.2 rating
- Manning: 92 g, 99.1 rating

Outdoors
- Brady: 247 g, 96.9 rating
- Brees: 125 g, 91.2 rating
- Manning: 136 g, 94.0 rating

Retroof
- Brady: 8 g, 100.4 rating
- Brees: 11 g, 89.9 rating
- Manning: 38 g, 99.2 rating

OVERALL
- Brady: 270 g, 97.7 rating
- Brees: 265 g, 97.7 rating
- Manning: 266 g, 96.5 rating

So even though the overall passer ratings are very very close, Brady is substantially better than either of them in every conceivable field situation. The only reason it's close at all is because the other two have played so many more games in domes.

Many of us have been saying this for years.

The stats contest is actually not even close.

So Shannon Sharpe has been wrong for ages when he yammers on about stats.

turkeyneck · Sep 12, 2019

How is it that Brady's rating is higher than Brees' for Dome, Outdoor and Retroof but they are tied for Overall?

Edit [after answered]: I was asking for a friend...

ivanvamp · Sep 12, 2019

turkeyneck said:
How is it that Brady's rating is higher than Brees' for Dome, Outdoor and Retroof but they are tied for Overall?

Not being snarky here, but do you want to think about it a little first, or do you want me to just explain it? If you don't get it, when you're told the answer you'll smack your forehead in an "I can't believe I didn't see that" sort of way.

QuantumMechanic · Sep 12, 2019

turkeyneck said:
How is it that Brady's rating is higher than Brees' for Dome, Outdoor and Retroof but they are tied for Overall?

Simpson's Paradox, probably.

Simpson's paradox - Wikipedia

In particular, scroll down to the "Batting Averages" heading, where there's an example of where David Justice had a higher batting average than Derek Jeter in 1995 and in 1996, but Jeter had the higher average for the two years combined.

Hyped · Sep 12, 2019

turkeyneck said:
How is it that Brady's rating is higher than Brees' for Dome, Outdoor and Retroof but they are tied for Overall?

It is weighted by the # of games played. Brees played a hell a lot more games under a dome with a 104 rating vs. Brady playing 8 games with a 109 rating.

Ice_Ice_Brady · Sep 12, 2019

Bleedthrough said:
Dome Midget

@Ice_Ice_Brady

Better one:

Dome Gnome

ALP · Sep 12, 2019

turkeyneck said:
How is it that Brady's rating is higher than Brees' for Dome, Outdoor and Retroof but they are tied for Overall?

because of the weight each of them has, so you can't just take the average of the three categories, need to take each category and multiply it by (number of games either in dome/roof/outside)/(total games)

Ice_Ice_Brady · Sep 12, 2019

Percentage of passes thrown in dome behind the line of scrimmage (running plays that count as passing yards):

Drew Brees - 83.47%
Everyone else - A couple of passes per game

patchick · Sep 12, 2019

QuantumMechanic said:
Simpson's Paradox, probably.

Yes! This is the exact example I use to explain the concept of Simpson's Paradox.

Clonamery · Sep 12, 2019

QuantumMechanic said:
Simpson's Paradox, probably.

Simpson's paradox - Wikipedia

In particular, scroll down to the "Batting Averages" heading, where there's an example of where David Justice had a higher batting average than Derek Jeter in 1995 and in 1996, but Jeter had the higher average for the two years combined.

So it's like, if the glove don't fit, you must acquit.

NormZauchin · Sep 12, 2019

And these numbers don't account for the weather conditions. Brees started his career in San Diego and both he and Manning played a majority of their seasons in the southern divisions of their respective conferences where even the outdoor stadiums had less inclement weather. I'd like to see the numbers for games played with the temperature below 40 degrees or games played with the wind over 15 MPH.

BobDigital · Sep 12, 2019

It is fun to look at the numbers but I don't know if this even needs to be brought in the context of how it reflects on Brady.

Brees vs Manning is a very fun conversation to have. Both have areas over the other you can point to. Personally at this point while I have certain reservations about Brees compared to Manning, Brees is the playoffs has been miles better and that should give him the nod over Manning all time I think.

Fixit · Sep 12, 2019

Not to be Captain Obvious here, but every game Brady played in a dome was a road game, the others were at home 80+% of the time.

So Brady's pretty good.

Flash · Sep 12, 2019

Brady shouldn't even be in the discussion with Brees and Manning. He has outgrown those after his Falcons Super Bowl win.

A far more interesting topic would be Brees vs. Manning vs. Rodgers, the three best QBs after Brady in the 21st century. I'd go Rodgers > Manning = Brees when it's all said and done.

Ice_Ice_Brady · Sep 12, 2019

Flash said:
Brady shouldn't even be in the discussion with Brees and Manning. He has outgrown those after his Falcons Super Bowl win.

A far more interesting topic would be Brees vs. Manning vs. Rodgers, the three best QBs after Brady in the 21st century. I'd go Rodgers > Manning = Brees when it's all said and done.

1. Manning
2. Rodgers*
3. Brees

*The moment Patrick Mahomes becomes eligible for career efficiency stats, Aaron Rodgers drops to #3 here and about 10 slots on the all-time rankings list. That’s the steep price you pay for spending your career dedicated to your QB rating instead of winning games.

Doctor DDS · Sep 12, 2019

With the massive change in QB ratings and volume stats the last few years all of these numbers will eventually look fairly pedestrian (just like Marino's do) but the wins and championships will stand the test of time.

One of my main statistical goals for 2019 is to see Eli fall below .500 for his career. (he is 116-115 at the moment) How someone in this era with a career QB rating around 84 is considered a likely HOFer still baffles me.

Soliel · Sep 12, 2019

He’s fresh out of HGH

The Brandon Five · Sep 12, 2019

ivanvamp said:
Michael Hurley tweets:

This is really crazy, if Pro Football Reference's indoor/outdoor split is accurate.

Percentage of games played in dome/retractable roof:
Brees: 52.7%
Manning: 48.9%
Brady: 8.2%

So ok interesting topic. Here are their career passer ratings in domes, outdoors, and in retroroof stadiums (I think these are regular season only):

Dome
- Brady: 14 g, 109.0 rating
- Brees: 128 g, 104.2 rating
- Manning: 92 g, 99.1 rating

Outdoors
- Brady: 247 g, 96.9 rating
- Brees: 125 g, 91.2 rating
- Manning: 136 g, 94.0 rating

Retroof
- Brady: 8 g, 100.4 rating
- Brees: 11 g, 89.9 rating
- Manning: 38 g, 99.2 rating

OVERALL
- Brady: 270 g, 97.7 rating
- Brees: 265 g, 97.7 rating
- Manning: 266 g, 96.5 rating

So even though the overall passer ratings are very very close, Brady is substantially better than either of them in every conceivable field situation. The only reason it's close at all is because the other two have played so many more games in domes.

So, given that the other #12 plays in the frozen tundra of Green Bay I'd say he is a good comp for Brady.

Rodgers:
Dome - 26 g, 109 rating
Outdoors - 134 g, 101.6 rating
Retroof - 5 g, 113.9 rating

OVERALL - 166 g, 103.1 rating

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