2018 Pass Completion Percentage map

QuantumMechanic · Sep 4, 2019

Here's a neat image that shows completion percentage as a function of catch location:

Makes me dislike fades even more

patfanken · Sep 4, 2019

QuantumMechanic said:
Here's a neat image that shows completion percentage as a function of catch location:

Makes me dislike fades even more

I'm not sure how to read this, but it would seem like the lowest percentage of completions were deep sideline passes and the highest are in the seams.. Am I reading that correctly or is it actually a representation of 2 boobs shot from an overhead camera.

QuantumMechanic · Sep 4, 2019

patfanken said:
I'm not sure how to read this, but it would seem like the lowest percentage of completions were deep sideline passes and the highest are in the seams.. Am I reading that correctly or is it actually a representation of 2 boobs shot from an overhead camera.

Yes, you are reading it correctly. White is 50%, blue is better than 50% completion rate (the darker blue the higher the rate), and red is less than 50% (the darker the red the lower the rate).

And yes, the seams give you the best yardage-to-completion rate value.

I also like the asymmetry in the deep passes. Deep passes to the left do a bit better than deep passes to the right. Probably because most QBs are right-handed.

Ice_Ice_Brady · Sep 4, 2019

But Brady is a dink and dunker and Mahomes can throw the ball out of the stadium. Mahomes (and Flacco) would have at least seven Lombardis...

patfanken · Sep 4, 2019

Seriously though, I think Tom's is going to have to make another one of his amazing adjustments to his game that we've seen throughout his career. My feeling is that Tom HATES throwing 50-50 balls or into very tight windows. For years he's relied on schemes to CREATE open receivers and he generally threw to the guy who had the greatest separation in the route.

As I look upon this WR group, only Edelman has the skills to create consistent separation against man. Gordon, DT, Meyers and Dorsett don't have those skills. I would love to see teams try and play zone against us, because then these guys have the skills to find the open area within those zones. But unfortunately, I believe that more and more teams will decide that Man coverage would be more effective against this groups skill sets as no one, but Dorsett perhaps looks like someone who can stretch the secondary.

BUT on the plus side it seems like they DO have 3 guys who CAN do well in 50-50 opportunities. Gronk's great forte was being Brady's safety net as he had a great deal of confidence in throwing him contested balls. I'm hoping it won't take Brady too long in developing that kind of trust with the new guys. It's an interesting conundrum. The fade pass is a hard one to throw, but it is impossible to defend. This could be the year Brady morphs into Joe Flacco of his superbowl year with his chuck and duck throws that wound up being either catches or PI's.

patfanken · Sep 4, 2019

QuantumMechanic said:
I also like the asymmetry in the deep passes. Deep passes to the left do a bit better than deep passes to the right. Probably because most QBs are right-handed.

Well that probably explains the anomaly where women's left breast tends to be slight larger than her right. Thus your graph not only is numerically correct it is also anatomically correct.

RobertWeathers · Sep 4, 2019

patfanken said:
Seriously though, I think Tom's is going to have to make another one of his amazing adjustments to his game that we've seen throughout his career. My feeling is that Tom HATES throwing 50-50 balls or into very tight windows. For years he's relied on schemes to CREATE open receivers and he generally threw to the guy who had the greatest separation in the route.

As I look upon this WR group, only Edelman has the skills to create consistent separation against man. Gordon, DT, Meyers and Dorsett don't have those skills. I would love to see teams try and play zone against us, because then these guys have the skills to find the open area within those zones. But unfortunately, I believe that more and more teams will decide that Man coverage would be more effective against this groups skill sets as no one, but Dorsett perhaps looks like someone who can stretch the secondary.

BUT on the plus side it seems like they DO have 3 guys who CAN do well in 50-50 opportunities. Gronk's great forte was being Brady's safety net as he had a great deal of confidence in throwing him contested balls. I'm hoping it won't take Brady too long in developing that kind of trust with the new guys. It's an interesting conundrum. The fade pass is a hard one to throw, but it is impossible to defend. This could be the year Brady morphs into Joe Flacco of his superbowl year with his chuck and duck throws that wound up being either catches or PI's.

Meh. As long as they catch them, he has no problem with 50/50 ball guys

scout · Sep 4, 2019

Hey, Josh catch this one. When Brady threw to Gordon last year, it seemed accuracy wasn't the focus. It felt like Brady was playing catch with Moss. Is that kind of the thinking Patsfanken?

Ring 6 · Sep 4, 2019

QuantumMechanic said:
Here's a neat image that shows completion percentage as a function of catch location:

Makes me dislike fades even more

Wait. You are saying the longer the throw the lower the completion percentage? Shocking.

Ring 6 · Sep 4, 2019

patfanken said:
Seriously though, I think Tom's is going to have to make another one of his amazing adjustments to his game that we've seen throughout his career. My feeling is that Tom HATES throwing 50-50 balls or into very tight windows. For years he's relied on schemes to CREATE open receivers and he generally threw to the guy who had the greatest separation in the route.

As I look upon this WR group, only Edelman has the skills to create consistent separation against man. Gordon, DT, Meyers and Dorsett don't have those skills. I would love to see teams try and play zone against us, because then these guys have the skills to find the open area within those zones. But unfortunately, I believe that more and more teams will decide that Man coverage would be more effective against this groups skill sets as no one, but Dorsett perhaps looks like someone who can stretch the secondary.

BUT on the plus side it seems like they DO have 3 guys who CAN do well in 50-50 opportunities. Gronk's great forte was being Brady's safety net as he had a great deal of confidence in throwing him contested balls. I'm hoping it won't take Brady too long in developing that kind of trust with the new guys. It's an interesting conundrum. The fade pass is a hard one to throw, but it is impossible to defend. This could be the year Brady morphs into Joe Flacco of his superbowl year with his chuck and duck throws that wound up being either catches or PI's.

Calling them 50/50 balls misstates the argument.
Brady will never throw a ball that his receiver and the defender gave a 50/50 chance at catching.
Throwing into a tighter window with a receiver he trusts or throwing a deep ball to the side the receiver has leverage when he is covered when he trusts the receiver sure.
But a jump ball that both receiver and defender have a equal chance of coming down with, never.

Palm Beach Pats Fan · Sep 4, 2019

here's the chart for Matthew Slater as WR:

neuronet · Sep 4, 2019

For Randy Moss pretty much it was all blue.

Uptown · Sep 4, 2019

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:
here's the chart for Matthew Slater as WR:

LMAO!!!!! Maybe the funniest post I’ve seen in a while.

patchick · Sep 4, 2019

AndyJohnson said:
Wait. You are saying the longer the throw the lower the completion percentage? Shocking.

FWIW I've added a green arc representing throws of equal length from a point at the bottom center of the chart. It makes it a little easier to see where that common-sense rule of thumb doesn't hold. What surprises me the most is how left/right symmetrical it is. I suspect that's far from true for any individual QB.

Ring 6 · Sep 4, 2019

patchick said:
FWIW I've added a green arc representing throws of equal length from a point at the bottom center of the chart. It makes it a little easier to see where that common-sense rule of thumb doesn't hold. What surprises me the most is how left/right symmetrical it is. I suspect that's far from true for any individual QB.

View attachment 24059

Other than throws to the deep middle it does hold. Being the green line out and see where throws in the middle from
20-30 are the exception

patchick · Sep 4, 2019

AndyJohnson said:
Other than throws to the deep middle it dies hold. Being the green line out and see where throws in the middle from
20-30 are the exception

It's actually the sweet spot in the seams that's the biggest outlier, which did surprise me a bit. I also like the way the heatmap illustrates that short passes to the flat aren't as "safe" as they're sometimes perceived to be. Nothing earth-shattering, but it's an interesting data view.

Here's one more take on it, with the area of 50% completion rate area in orange. It highlights that there are spots everywhere from 2 to 30 yards downfield with the same completion rate.

Ring 6 · Sep 4, 2019

patchick said:
It's actually the sweet spot in the seams that's the biggest outlier, which did surprise me a bit. I also like the way the heatmap illustrates that short passes to the flat aren't as "safe" as they're sometimes perceived to be. Nothing earth-shattering, but it's an interesting data view.

Here's one more take on it, with the area of 50% completion rate area in orange. It highlights that there are spots everywhere from 2 to 30 yards downfield with the same completion rate.

View attachment 24060

im not talking about length from LOS to pass I’m talking about distance the pass travels.
A 5 yard out to the sideline equals a much deeper pass in the seam (probably 25-30)

patchick · Sep 4, 2019

AndyJohnson said:
im not talking about length from LOS to pass I’m talking about distance the pass travels.
A 5 yard out to the sideline equals a much deeper pass in the seam (probably 25-30)

Right, that's exactly why I added the green arc. I'm not sure what point you're disagreeing with?

Ring 6 · Sep 4, 2019

patchick said:
Right, that's exactly why I added the green arc. I'm not sure what point you're disagreeing with?

I’m saying aside from the very explainable fro middle difference the distance of the throw and the completion % correlate. And that a 5 yard out and a 25 yard seam would show the same result because they are the same throw.

patchick · Sep 4, 2019

AndyJohnson said:
I’m saying aside from the very explainable fro middle difference the distance of the throw and the completion % correlate. And that a 5 yard out and a 25 yard seam would show the same result because they are the same throw.

But...they're not the same throw. As the chart shows, the 25 yard seam travels 30% farther in the air. This is starting to feel like that Solomon Asch experiment!

In this version the two vectors are the same length up to the arroheads, and the dotted line represents the difference in the length of the two throws.

2018 Pass Completion Percentage map

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