2018 Defense vs 2019 Defense

RobertWeathers · May 7, 2019

wpdougie2180 said:
Jackson???

Massive oversight. My god.

SBLIII · May 13, 2019

Looking at the roster, it seems to be a wash at worst. Probably an improvement. Everyone of the back 7 returns. Upfront we bring in Bennett (15 TFL, 9 sacks), Pennell and lost Flowers (9 TFL, 7.5 sacks) and Clayborn (4 TFL, 2.5 sacks). Continuity on the back 7 and adding Bentley, Winovich, Dawson and Williams to this defense should make for an improvement. Also hope Wise can be a 7-8 sack DE with a bigger role.

Overall it looks like a good unit and could still improve with another DT. I think we improve from the #7 scoring defense to the #3-#4 scoring defense. Maybe even the best like 2016.

JayNM · May 13, 2019

Also, lets remember that our defense stepped up big time in the Play Offs. During the season, we had some bad days, especially in the front seven (Dolphins game for example)

We have potential to be better, but as of now, i think we are marginally worse

TheRainMaker · May 13, 2019

After the draft, I believe the defense will be better than last year.

Pennel should be an upgrade over Brown.

Bennett has always been the better player to Flowers and I think he could give the Pats one more productive year to have us forget about Flowers. Flowers on the other hand, like most ex Pats, will end up in obscurity (but with a lot of money).

I see JC Jackson improving from last year.

Dawson should have a fire lit under him with Williams being drafted. Should be a good competition.

Winovich should be another disrupter on the D-line and he plays violent from the highlights I’ve seen. I don’t see him going down the path of Jake Bequette or even Shawn (I skipped leg day) Crable.

And it’s put up or shut up time for Derek Rivers as Winovich/Cowart or coming to take his job. Anything from him would be a bonus.

Bentley and Sam will be added to the rotation of LB’s which will allow Van Noy and Hightower some breathers during games.

MrNathanDrake · May 13, 2019

The smart answer: It's too early to say.

jah · May 14, 2019

TheRainMaker said:
After the draft, I believe the defense will be better than last year.

Pennel should be an upgrade over Brown.

Bennett has always been the better player to Flowers and I think he could give the Pats one more productive year to have us forget about Flowers. Flowers on the other hand, like most ex Pats, will end up in obscurity (but with a lot of money).

I see JC Jackson improving from last year.

Dawson should have a fire lit under him with Williams being drafted. Should be a good competition.

Winovich should be another disrupter on the D-line and he plays violent from the highlights I’ve seen. I don’t see him going down the path of Jake Bequette or even Shawn (I skipped leg day) Crable.

And it’s put up or shut up time for Derek Rivers as Winovich/Cowart or coming to take his job. Anything from him would be a bonus.

Bentley and Sam will be added to the rotation of LB’s which will allow Van Noy and Hightower some breathers during games.

Small nitpick but Cowart is a DT and seems most physically similar to Malcom Brown, maybe lighter.

Tuck · May 14, 2019

ivanvamp said:
Starters Comparison
Pos - 2018 - 2019 - Verdict
DE - Wise - Wise - Slight upgrade, because of experience
DT - Guy - Guy - No change, added experience countered by more mileage on the tires
DT - M.Brown - Pennel - Slight upgrade, as Brown was a bit of a disappointment
DE - Flowers - Bennett - Slight downgrade, though it's very close
LB - Hightower - Hightower - No change, assuming good health
LB - Van Noy - Van Noy - No change
LB - Roberts - Roberts - Slight upgrade, because of experience
CB - Gilmore - Gilmore - No change, all-pro player in his prime
S - Chung - Chung - Slight downgrade, as he's getting older
S - D.McCourty - D.McCourty - Slight downgrade, as he's getting older
CB - J.McCourty - J.McCourty - Slight downgrade, as he's getting older

Reserves
Pos - 2018 - 2019 - Verdict
DL - Butler - Butler - Slight upgrade, because of experience
DL - Grissom - Winovich - Major upgrade, on talent and motor
DL - Shelton - Parry - No change, hard to see one being better than the other
DL - Simon - Simon - No change
DL - Rivers - Rivers - Slight upgrade, because of experience
DL - Davis - Davis - Slight upgrade, because of experience
DL - Kamalu - Cowart - No idea
D - Grigsby - Calhoun - No idea
LB - King - King - No change
LB - Bentley (IR) - Bentley - Major upgrade, assuming good health
LB - Sam - Sam - Slight upgrade, assuming good health
CB - Rowe - Williams - Major upgrade, as Rowe just wasn't great and Williams can be
CB - Crossen - Crossen - Slight upgrade, because of experience
CB - J.Jones - J.Jones - Slight upgrade, because of experience
CB - Dawson (IR) - Dawson - Slight upgrade, assuming good health
S - Harmon - Harmon - Slight downgrade, as he's getting older
S - Melifonwu - Melifonwu - Slight upgrade, because of experience

You can see that basically I assume that if you're on the front end of the curve (i.e., before you reach your peak), you'll improve with experience, but if you're on the back end of the curve, you'll decline due to age and mileage. Someone like Guy is right at that point where the two probably counter each other. I assume that people like Bentley and Dawson will represent upgrades if only because they would be healthy, and a healthy Bentley is better than Bentley on IR. A few spots, I have no way of knowing or even really guessing.

Obviously I'm spitballing here, but I see:

3 major upgrades
11 minor upgrades
5 minor downgrades
0 major downgrades
8 no changes
2 no ideas

That to me would represent a pretty significant cumulative improvement from 2018 to 2019. Of course, who knows really, and injuries could play a big factor and such. But I think they have a chance to be very good on D, *especially* if Bennett still has enough in the tank and Winovich is the real deal.

Nice analysis. I agree with almost all of your individual projections but I dont think the results are additive because several of the 'slight downgrades' are due to age so the likelihood of those players under performing in 2019 due to injury is much higher than the younger players on the roster.

Take the secondary for example, three of the four starters will be 32 by game one. The likelihood that that unit makes it through the season without one or more players missing significant time is pretty slim so you have to assume a high likelihood that the reserves will be stepping up to fill in or possibly a scheme change to window dress the expected drop off in talent.

I agree with your conclusion and I think your analysis is about as good as one can do at this point in the year but I also feel there is more risk this year due to age at some key positions.

SBLIII · May 14, 2019

Tuck said:
Nice analysis. I agree with almost all of your individual projections but I dont think the results are additive because several of the 'slight downgrades' are due to age so the likelihood of those players under performing in 2019 due to injury is much higher than the younger players on the roster.

Take the secondary for example, three of the four starters will be 32 by game one. The likelihood that that unit makes it through the season without one or more players missing significant time is pretty slim so you have to assume a high likelihood that the reserves will be stepping up to fill in or possibly a scheme change to window dress the expected drop off in talent.

I agree with your conclusion and I think your analysis is about as good one can do at this point in the year but I also feel there is more risk this year due to age at some key positions.

There is more risk involved, I agree. Why I think it was smart to draft another CB.

Injuries are 1 thing, just decline because of age another possible factor.

ivanvamp · May 14, 2019

wpdougie2180 said:
Jackson???

Gads. Yes obviously omitted by accident. He should be a bit of an upgrade over last year's Jackson. Great young CB. Good pick up.

Ring 6 · May 14, 2019

ivanvamp said:
Gads. Yes obviously omitted by accident. He should be a bit of an upgrade over last year's Jackson. Great young CB. Good pick up.

I’m cautious here. Surprising rookies, particularly at corner, often take a step back in year 2.

patsinthesnow · May 15, 2019

EDGE:
Bennett
Wise
Winovich
Simon

IDL:
Guy
Pennel
Butler
TBD

LB:
Hightower (also EDGE)
Van Noy (also EDGE)
Bentley
Roberts
Collins

CB:
Gilmore
Jackson
McCourty
Jones
Williams (also SS)

S:
McCourty
Chung
Harmon

TheRainMaker · May 15, 2019

Elijah said:
Small nitpick but Cowart is a DT and seems most physically similar to Malcom Brown, maybe lighter.

Some drafts listed him as a DE. Either way, Rivers has Winovich competing for time.

goheels22002 · May 15, 2019

This defense looks suspiciously similar to the defense that lost to the Lions in Detroit and the Dolphins in Miami last year. God help us all.

cstjohn17 · May 15, 2019

Hard to ignore the way Flores had them playing at the end of last year. The super bowl performance was an all time historic effort.

mgteich · May 15, 2019

1) That's a solid 21, after we acquire a DT.
2) Then, we have 3 STers: King, Ebner, and Brooks.
3) The 25th can be a developmental player like Dawson or Obi, or a LT/STer like Calhoun or Sam.

patsinthesnow said:
EDGE:
Bennett
Wise
Winovich
Simon

IDL:
Guy
Pennel
Butler
TBD

LB:
Hightower (also EDGE)
Van Noy (also EDGE)
Bentley
Roberts
Collins

CB:
Gilmore
Jackson
McCourty
Jones
Williams (also SS)

S:
McCourty
Chung
Harmon

Uptown · May 16, 2019

goheels22002 said:
This defense looks suspiciously similar to the defense that lost to the Lions in Detroit and the Dolphins in Miami last year. God help us all.

You mean the defense that held 3 of the highest scoring teams in the league to 62 total points in the playoffs & won the SB?? Yep, God help us

SBLIII · May 16, 2019

Can New England field their first top 10 DVOA defense since 2006?

Dexter · May 17, 2019

Hackett: Bend but don't break Patriots defense could be thing of past

goheels22002 · May 17, 2019

AndyJohnson said:
I’m cautious here. Surprising rookies, particularly at corner, often take a step back in year 2.

I must say that the CB position has the best mix of quality veterans and early career guys that I can recall. There's going to be intense competition for the final roster spot. If Duke Dawson is healthy and shows what he can do that got him drafted, Belichick will head into 2019 with four or five good to excellent corners that feature some size to deal with all these big WRs that teams are throwing at them.

With Collins return to push the young guys for a job, LB looks stronger than 2018. The only question mark on D is how they'll replace Flowers' production and versatility in the front seven. How I wish they'd had the cap room to lock in Flowers for a few years.

WaterfallJumper · May 17, 2019

Dexter said:
Hackett: Bend but don't break Patriots defense could be thing of past

Could be. But probably won't.

2018 Defense vs 2019 Defense

Member of the Seattle 7 & Roadie for Metallica

In the Starting Line-Up

PatsFans.com Supporter

3rd runner up sexiest man alive 1998

In the Starting Line-Up

Degeneracy Expert

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

In the Starting Line-Up

In the Starting Line-Up

PatsFans.com Supporter

PatsFans.com Supporter

3rd runner up sexiest man alive 1998

PatsFans.com Supporter

PatsFans.com Supporter

PatsFans.com Veteran

Standin' Pat

In the Starting Line-Up

Third String But Playing on Special Teams

PatsFans.com Supporter

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

Similar threads