Dawson and Crossen

We carry about 10 or 11 DBs as standard. Usually 5-6 Cornerbacks and 4-5 safeties.

At the minute we have an embarrassment of riches in the defensive backfield but that depth can go quickly. No doubt one or two will end up on PUP or IR before the season starts. If not, I'm sure one might be enticing trade bait. It's far too early to worry about it all.

The aim now is build up as much depth as possible and let the competition shake out.

tasmlab said:

Richards, Ras-I, Butler, C. Jones, you know the list)

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The list of busts is certainly impressive. BB must be the worst 2nd round DB drafter of all time. You would think just on probability alone we would be due.

robertweathers said:

Exactly. Its possible Devin, Jason and JJ are not even on the 2020 roster.

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I agree. That's why we drafted Williams and added Brooks. We continue to bring in youngsters who are potential contributors in the future. We have Jackson from 2018.

The OPEN question, as always, is how to contract the end of the roster. We NEED

DEFENSE (23)
8 DL
4 LB
4 CB
1 DB (additional, since this is really a passing game)
3 S
3 additional STers (King, Ebner and Brooks)

That totals 23 roster spots on defense. The remaining spots could be anywhere, partly depending on 2020 needs, future needs, and the number of developmental players carried. A spot or two COULD also be used on offense, given that many seem to want to carry 27 players on offense.

OFFENSE (27)
QB (3)
WR (5)
TE (3)
RB (4)
FB (1)
OL (9)
ST (2) (Bolden and Slater)

====================
So, we could carry 23-26 on defense, 24-27 on offense, and 3 ST specialists (K, P & LS). Basically, the last 3 roster spots can be used almost anywhere.

Personally, for initial guesses, I tend to project 25 on offense and 25 on defense. Another approach is to project 60 roster spots: 28 on offense, 28 on defense and 4 specialists.

SBLIII said:

Maybe (Crossen ) can become a core special teamer though and make a guy like Ebner expendable and we save dollars.

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IIRC, Ebner graded out much higher than Slater on special teams last year. It may be Slater who is expendable. Jeff Howe had an illuminating article on the Pats in the Athletic today. Here's a snippet:

5. What to do with Duke Dawson?
A second-round pick in 2018, Dawson didn’t play as a rookie. He tore his hamstring and wound up on injured reserve for half the season before his activation, and he then remained on the game-day inactive list. The team wanted to see more from him behind the scenes, and it was an eye-opener when the Pats didn’t even give him a chance to dress in the regular-season finale against the Jets.

Although Belichick has had some misses in the second round, he’s never cut a second-rounder prior to the conclusion of his third training camp. Defensive tackle Dominique Easley, a 2014 first-rounder, was released after his second full season with the Pats, so that’s the bar for the earliest high-round ouster.

Because of that, it would be unprecedented for Dawson’s job to be in the balance. But the cornerback depth chart is absolutely loaded and the roles are defined. Stephon Gilmore was arguably the best in the league last year, and Jackson, Jason McCourty and Joejuan Williams will compete for the No. 2 job. Jon Jones is a quality slot corner, so Dawson has to make a strong push there. At the risk of sounding redundant from past postings, Keion Crossen could be the heir to Matthew Slater’s special-teams throne, and Ken Webster offers athletic traits similar to Crossen’s.

If Dawson has a lights-out offseason and validates his draft stock, he’ll erase those rookie-season hardships, and the Patriots will want him around in the event Jones prices himself out as an unrestricted free agent in 2020. But if Dawson can’t distinguish himself on the depth chart? Could he become a hybrid safety? An IR candidate again? Belichick doesn’t give out scholarships, so Dawson has to earn it in a major way with that crowd around him.

Howe: 10 questions Patriots must still answer before the new...

mgteich said:

I agree. That's why we drafted Williams and added Brooks. We continue to bring in youngsters who are potential contributors in the future. We have Jackson from 2018.

The OPEN question, as always, is how to contract the end of the roster. We NEED

DEFENSE (23)
8 DL
4 LB
4 CB
1 DB (additional, since this is really a passing game)
3 S
3 additional STers (additional because starters also play ST's)

That totals 23 roster spots on defense. The remaining spots could be anywhere, partly depending on 2020 needs, future needs, and the number of developmental players carried. A spot or two COULD also be used on offense, given that many seem to want to carry 27 players on offense.

So, we could carry 24-27 on offense, 23-26 on defense, and 3 ST specialists (K, P & LS). Basically, the last 3 roster spots can be used almost anywhere.

Personally, for initial guesses, I tend to project 25 on offense and 25 on defense. Another approach is to project 60 roster spots: 28 on offense, 28 on defense and 4 specialists.

OFFENSE (27)
QB (3)
WR (5)
TE (3)
RB (4)
FB (1)
OL (9)
ST (2) (Bolden and Slater)

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Seems reasonable to me.

I agree that 2nd rounders who are healthy as rookies almost always make the roster in their second year, even if they were inactive their entire rookie season.

I take a different view with regard to all rookies (except first rounders) who are injured as rookies. These players are unlikely to be future starters or even serious contributors. And yes, Flowers was an exception. If folks thiNK that Dawson has shown as much as much as Flowers as a rookie (or shown much of anything), and has similar potential, I'll leave them to their fantasies. I simply disagree.

Brandon_Cox said:

IIRC, Ebner graded out much higher than Slater on special teams last year. It may be Slater who is expendable. Jeff Howe had an illuminating article on the Pats in the Athletic today. Here's a snippet:

5. What to do with Duke Dawson?
A second-round pick in 2018, Dawson didn’t play as a rookie. He tore his hamstring and wound up on injured reserve for half the season before his activation, and he then remained on the game-day inactive list. The team wanted to see more from him behind the scenes, and it was an eye-opener when the Pats didn’t even give him a chance to dress in the regular-season finale against the Jets.

Although Belichick has had some misses in the second round, he’s never cut a second-rounder prior to the conclusion of his third training camp. Defensive tackle Dominique Easley, a 2014 first-rounder, was released after his second full season with the Pats, so that’s the bar for the earliest high-round ouster.

Because of that, it would be unprecedented for Dawson’s job to be in the balance. But the cornerback depth chart is absolutely loaded and the roles are defined. Stephon Gilmore was arguably the best in the league last year, and Jackson, Jason McCourty and Joejuan Williams will compete for the No. 2 job. Jon Jones is a quality slot corner, so Dawson has to make a strong push there. At the risk of sounding redundant from past postings, Keion Crossen could be the heir to Matthew Slater’s special-teams throne, and Ken Webster offers athletic traits similar to Crossen’s.

If Dawson has a lights-out offseason and validates his draft stock, he’ll erase those rookie-season hardships, and the Patriots will want him around in the event Jones prices himself out as an unrestricted free agent in 2020. But if Dawson can’t distinguish himself on the depth chart? Could he become a hybrid safety? An IR candidate again? Belichick doesn’t give out scholarships, so Dawson has to earn it in a major way with that crowd around him.

Howe: 10 questions Patriots must still answer before the new...

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mgteich said:

It makes a huge amount of difference. Barring two injuries, a 6th CB is useless and should be inactive in every game.

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My point is that it makes no difference whether or not you consider a guy like Ebner a safety or a ST player, and that goes the same for a guy like Slater as a WR or ST player. Bolden is another example for RB or ST player.

If Crossen or Dawson play some ST, what’s the difference?

mgteich said:

I agree that 2nd rounders who are healthy as rookies almost always make the roster in their second year, even if they were inactive their entire rookie season.

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Almost always—or always?

mgteich said:

fine; if it makes everyone feel better, Dawson is likely to traded.

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At the moment, what could they reasonably expect to recoup from spending a 2nd round pick on him, only one year ago?

That seems like a terrible idea to me. You’d be selling low. Very low.

I'll be clearer. First you are considering both players as corners and state that whether they play ST's is irrelevant. That is simply not true. If Dawson were a top Ster, then he would have a much better future with the team. In any case, there are two DIFFERENT positions that are being filled: ST's and DB. Playing bot is sometimes a bonus. Surely #5, #6 corners MUST be special teamers or they are useless inactive players for the current season. ON the other hand, competitors for ST's position need not play any position. Examples are Slater, Ebner, King and 2018 Humber. Bolden and McCleean (2018) Can play some at their positions.

CROSSEN
As a defensive back., Crossen is a fine competitor for the Practice Squad.
Any position play by STO players is largely irrelevant. They are on the team to special teams. Otherwise, they wouldn't be on the team. This certainly applies to Ebner, Slater and King. It makes zero difference that they have a position designation. And so it is for Crossen.
===========
DAWSON
As a STO player, Dawson has no chance to make the 53. As a defensive back, he is our 6th corner, and likely to be inactive all year. He would have to be seen to have great future to spend yet another year in development.

supafly said:

.
If Crossen or Dawson play some ST, what’s the difference?

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It may be always. Anyone is free to correct. I would certainly expect a 2nd rounder to be given two years if they are healthy for the first year and through the pre-season of their second year.

More important to this case is the past success or lack of it with players who didn't play and reps during their rookie years because of injuries.
========
The idea of drafting Williams so that Dawson can have another year to develop on the inactive bench is a strange one to me. Also, drafting him so that we can trade a 2019 contributor at CB and ST also seems wrong. [it seems wrong to trade Jones for a 2020 4th when we are likely to get a 2021 3rd PLUS a year of production in 2019]

supafly said:

Almost always—or always?

Click to expand...

mgteich said:

I'll be clearer. First you are considering both players as corners and state that whether they play ST's is irrelevant. That is simply not true. If Dawson were a top Ster, then he would have a much better future with the team.

Click to expand...

That’s not what I’m suggesting at all. I’m simply saying that it doesn’t really make a difference what positional grouping you include them with, that’s all.

Dawson was expected to contribute on STs. It’s what helped him to go in the 2nd round. Why is that any different now?

The fact is that are blessed with a plethora of CB's. This is a really good situation to have given the way the game is played these days, and it will be VERY interesting to see how it plays out this August.

So many questions. Will they keep all 7? or 6? or go with the standard 5. How many S's will be keep? Where does Obi fit in this equation?

I wish I knew the answers, but I offer one observation. Don't forget that within the Pats coverage package the differences between CB and S can often be blurred. So I think the question of how many CB's will be keep, should be looked at as how many DB's will be on the roster.

Finally I offer this: Malafalu had CRAZY measurables. He is literally the athletic freak that we rarely get to get, given how low we draft. He's 6'4 224 with 4.4 speed 7.1 3 cone.
His progress has been hamper by injuries and he came into the league without having great "instincts" which slows his coverage ability.

I'm a bit surprised people aren't more excited about this pick up. But here's the thing. This is a kid who desperately needs to be coached. "Insticts CAN be coached into a player. It's NOT, you have 'em or you don't kind of thing (though it is nice when you have them to start).

If the Pats can harness the great athletic ability Obi has, he can be an AWESOME replacement for Chung down the road, literally a Kam Chancelor type player. But while my long term expectations seem a little grandiose, my short term goal arent. For THIS season, I see him mostly on special teams and as a situational match up piece against certain teams Think about it. 10 more lbs and he'd be a 4.4 LB with coverage skills. He's been used as a CB. He's a willing tackler, and a hard worker.

I saw this today and I wish I could remember who said it because it REALLY is a great insight into what the Patriots continue to thrive. The writer pointed out that most NFL teams put so much of their effort into scouting for the draft DESPITE the fact that the success rate for that exercise remains pretty similar for all teams. But where NE separates itself is in their scouting of FA's, and their success rate of picking players off the so called scrap heap is amazing. (case in point Jaime Collins) He also pointed out that it just makes sense, since the scouting of existing players in the league is much easier than trying to project players coming from college. He didn't know why more teams don't follow the Pat's model.

The moment I read, it really rang true. If anyone else read it too, the author needs to be recognized. This is just another example of the true "Patirot way"

I must wonder why Obi played so little special teams last year. He had only 25 reps all season. A reasonable companion might be Crossen who had 113 reps.

Obi could be kept a 6th, and developmental corner. However, I don't see him getting a lot of work on special teams. The backups listed at DB's who will get lots of those reps include Jones, Ebner, and Brooks.

patfanken said:

.
Finally I offer this: Malafalu had CRAZY measurables. He is literally the athletic freak that we rarely get to get, given how low we draft. He's 6'4 224 with 4.4 speed 7.1 3 cone.
His progress has been hamper by injuries and he came into the league without having great "instincts" which slows his coverage ability.

I'm a bit surprised people aren't more excited about this pick up. But here's the thing. This is a kid who desperately needs to be coached. "Insticts CAN be coached into a player. It's NOT, you have 'em or you don't kind of thing (though it is nice when you have them to start).

If the Pats can harness the great athletic ability Obi has, he can be an AWESOME replacement for Chung down the road, literally a Kam Chancelor type player. But while my long term expectations seem a little grandiose, my short term goal arent. For THIS season, I see him mostly on special teams and as a situational match up piece against certain teams Think about it. 10 more lbs and he'd be a 4.4 LB with coverage skills. He's been used as a CB. He's a willing tackler, and a hard worker.

I saw this today and I wish I could remember who said it because it REALLY is a great insight into what the Patriots continue to thrive. The writer pointed out that most NFL teams put so much of their effort into scouting for the draft DESPITE the fact that the success rate for that exercise remains pretty similar for all teams. But where NE separates itself is in their scouting of FA's, and their success rate of picking players off the so called scrap heap is amazing. (case in point Jaime Collins) He also pointed out that it just makes sense, since the scouting of existing players in the league is much easier than trying to project players coming from college. He didn't know why more teams don't follow the Pat's model.

The moment I read, it really rang true. If anyone else read it too, the author needs to be recognized. This is just another example of the true "Patirot way"

Click to expand...

mgteich said:

I must wonder why Obi played so little special teams last year. He had only 25 reps all season. A reasonable companion might be Crossen who had 113 reps.

Obi could be kept a 6th, and developmental corner. However, I don't see him getting a lot of work on special teams. The backups listed at DB's who will get lots of those reps include Jones, Ebner, and Brooks.

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I don't see him as a 6th CB at all, rather than the 4th or 5th S, who has some CB skills that can be used situationally.

BTW- I think his ST's value is greatly undervalued by you. I can see him as a regular on KO's and Punt coverage teams at a minimum.

I understand your position. You expected Dawson to be a ST contributor. Being injured for most of the year, and having 0 reps at ST's in the 5 games when he was available didn't change your mind.

I'm looking at the team as it is with our 7 corners and 5 safeties (including Brooks and Ebner). I see Dawson as the 12th DB, That is, in my very personal opinion, there are 11 defensive backs that I expect to contribute more than Dawson in 2019.

I don't think that we are carrying 12 defensive backs, or perhaps even 11. So, for me, we COULD keep Dawson in the hope that he will contribute in the future. That would would mean that others would need (or traded) to be cut to make a place for Dawson.

My position is straightforward. I think that there are others that are of more value to the team, now and in the future. If we are keeping 6 corners, I'd rather keep Crossen, who is currently a ST contributor and has shown a bit of potential. If we are carrying only 5 corners, I would rather the roster spot be used on the 5th WR or the 3rd TE or the 9th OL, wherever we would be skimping in order to keep a 6th CB.

supafly said:

That’s not what I’m suggesting at all. I’m simply saying that it doesn’t really make a difference what positional grouping you include them with, that’s all.

Dawson was expected to contribute on STs. It’s what helped him to go in the 2nd round. Why is that any different now?

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I "undervalue" Obi's special team skills because I haven't seen them. What I have seen is that team had Obi available and and didn't use him on special teams, or safety either.

Obi was available and had 20 reps on defense and 25 on ST's. That was about double the numbers for Cyrus Jones in 2018. I just don't see keeping a player that has the potential for being a 4th safety (for which we are currently paying Brooks a guaranteed $1.4M) and the potential to be better than Crossen at special teams (even though he hasn't shown that).
===
5th safety? How many defensive backs do you think that we'll carry. IMO, the 4th safety is a ST who hopefully is an emergency 4th safety. At least that is how the position has been used in the past. Brooks is a fine candidate for the 4th safety.

patfanken said:

I don't see him as a 6th CB at all, rather than the 4th or 5th S, who has some CB skills that can be used situationally.

BTW- I think his ST's value is greatly undervalued by you. I can see him as a regular on KO's and Punt coverage teams at a minimum.

Click to expand...

Crossen was only active because he can play on ST. Seemed like every time Crossen was targeted he gave up a pass on a critical down or big play. He wasn't good at all on defense. He needs to improve, a lot.

Wheelman said:

Crossen was only active because he can play on ST. Seemed like every time Crossen was targeted he gave up a pass on a critical down or big play. He wasn't good at all on defense. He needs to improve, a lot.

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They trusted him to play though, besides some rookie penalties, most of the passed completed on him, he had good coverage.

There's always injuries....and I wouldn't call Jason McCourty a lock to make the 53 as well....

In addition, J. Jones is an UFA next year and likely will command Justin Coleman money (36M/4yrs)....so we still need some youth movement.

I think one of them makes it.