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Some Rob Gronkowski thoughts, etc -


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Does the loss of Gronk hurt? Absolutely. Even the somewhat diminished version of last year presented an equal threat to receive or block, meaning he was a significant problem for defenses because he could produce receptions and open holes for RBs, and he could conceal offensive plays as a dual threat.

Is the loss cataclysmic? No. There are linemen who can block better than Gronk and receivers out there who can catch better than Gronk (in his prime that was a bigger question). That will require multiple players rather than one, and it does amount to tells for defenses when a TE cannot block or catch.

The Pats have always adapted offenses and personnel to better use what is available (RBs, FBs, etc.) rather than trying to recreate what they had without the same talent from prior years (more or less, who could replace Moss in his 2007 form?). The Gronk/Hernandez draft was a surprise, and it worked. Most other teams tried to reproduce that, and failed. The Pats evolved when everyone was looking for TEs, and will do so again (with a horde of WRs, RBs and TEs, we'll see where that goes).

I expect they will be fine in life after Gronk. Different, but fine.
 
Except this is not true.

He was one of the major chess piece of this offense through his entire tenure. Just look how the Rams had no idea how to match up with us in 22. That was because of Gronk.

Without a player like him the other team will have it way easier to direct personnel. Dont confuse the stat sheet with impact on games.
Cmon, Luuked. You're an x's and o's guy. Casual and uninformed fans (like Ben Volin) could see that Gronk wasn't Gronk. He simply wasn't running well. So do you think the DC's of other teams didn't notice this. 2015 Gronk wasn't the guy wearing 87 last year. Christ, 2017 Gronk wasn't out there.

What teams had to defend was a big slow guy with great hands. He wasn't demanding some manner of double coverage on EVERY play.

And you uncharacteristically use a bad example to make your point. I actually makes my point even better. As you know the LB assigned to Gronk initially went the wrong way (going with the motion man). When he realizes his mistake the play has already begun and his is now out of position. Yet this LB (not a DB) is able to get back into position enough to be INCHES away from making a play on (if you remember) what was a perfectly thrown ball. You an I both know that if the "old Gronk" had been out there in THAT situation, he would have 2 steps on his defender, not inches

Now spreading out the 22 personnel package was a BRILLIANT adjustment by Josh, and certainly put the Rams at a disadvantage. But in the end the most important offensively play of the game came because of Brady's perfect pass, and Gronk's great hands.
 
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I'm not putting a lot of expectations on Harry. In 20 years here NO rookie WR has gotten over 520 yds.

So, while the situation is lining up for Harry to play a bigger role in the offense than most rookies have, anything in the 5-6OO yard range would be a GREAT rookie season relative to the Pats. And while its not likely going to get him any post season honors, it will be a great sign for his long term future development.

In other words, anyone who think's Harry is gong to become Brady's "go to guy" and be a 1000 yd type receiver in his first year is gong to be disappointed. Let the kid be a rookie this year, and not overly pressure him with grandiose expectations.
500 yards from Harry as a rookie would work for me. But I think he can do better he obviously is the highest drafted rookie we'll have fielded at wr and there is potentially a bigger opportunity for him than most have had before. With DT rehabbing, Gordon suspended, and no stud TE he could earn a bigger role than other rookie WRs have.
 
We’ve lost players in the past and have kept moving on. I Loved Gronk as much as the next guy, but the end of days scenario only occurs with the retirement of one person and one person only. When that occurs we can really be worried. Until then enjoy.
 
Cmon, Luuked. You're an x's and o's guy. Casual and uninformed fans (like Ben Volin) could see that Gronk wasn't Gronk. He simply wasn't running well. So do you think the DC's of other teams didn't notice this. 2015 Gronk wasn't the guy wearing 87 last year. Christ, 2017 Gronk wasn't out there.

I am not saying that he was as much of a receiving threat as in every other season. But his value goes far beyond that. This is also the reason why people completely overvalue a player like Kelce or Graham. They are truly defined by their fantasy level stats because that is pretty much most of the impact they have on the game.

You keep talking about him as if the receiving aspect of his game is what made him a HoF player when in reality its all the other things he was enabling the team to do what made him so unique. And those things he was still doing last year.

And you uncharacteristically use a bad example to make your point. I actually makes my point even better. As you know the LB assigned to Gronk initially went the wrong way (going with the motion man). When he realizes his mistake the play has already begun and his is now out of position. Yet this LB (not a DB) is able to get back into position enough to be INCHES away from making a play on (if you remember) what was a perfectly thrown ball. You an I both know that if the "old Gronk" had been out there in THAT situation, he would have 2 steps on his defender, not inches

Again you keep talking about him as a receiving threat when my point was something entirely different. Only his presence on the field in 22 gave the Rams difficulty in deciding how to handle their own personnel. With a lesser blocker or receiver as TE on the field the Rams will have less headaches deciding between base and sub in this situation and all of this might play out differently.

You focus too much on the plays where he touched the ball and not enough on all other plays where his presence affected the opponents approach.

What teams had to defend was a big slow guy with great hands. He wasn't demanding some manner of double coverage on EVERY play.

Now spreading out the 22 personnel package was a BRILLIANT adjustment by Josh, and certainly put the Rams at a disadvantage. But in the end the most important offensively play of the game came because of Brady's perfect pass, and Gronk's great hands.

I don't think you will even get the passes to Edelman in the middle without Gronk being someone for Wade to consider. Again I think you are missing how much of an impact he had on plays where he is not even touching the ball.

Now as I have been saying through the offseason I don't think this means that the offense is in deep trouble. They will have to evolve into something new instead of falling into the trap of trying to fill the void left behind by a HoF player.
 
Comments:

1.) Before Gronk retired, I was expecting him to come back better than he was in '18. I never really thought he 'lost a step', it was the accumulation of injuries, IMO.

2.) The loss of Gronk's impact will be best measured by Edelman's performance this year, IMO. I expect people to be all over Edelman like flies on **** this year....especially so since last year's timely 3rd down conversions in the playoffs.

3.) I am really happy with our TE depth: Watson, ASJ, LaCosse, Izzo, Anderson, etc.... I think we can find a good combination and similar production as 2018 (750 yards, 45 catches, and 3-4 TD's). I hope the new OT we drafted can come on as a 6th lineman now and then to ensure that our blocking is as good as it was when Gronk was here.

4.) I am also happy with our WR depth: Edelman, Thomas, Harry, Dorsett, Berrios, Harris, Inman, and Slater. And I didn't even mention Gordon here. I think our WR corps will allow us to morph the offense into something different vs. 2018 and we'll see more guys gain separation. Does anyone realize that Thomas, Harry, Harris, Inman, and Gordon are all over 6'2"? That can only help with outside blocking to allow our RB's to turn the corner......
 
Yeah I have a bad habit of opening mouth inserting foot. My Bat phone rang a few minutes after I posted this o_O
snyder-joker-riddler.jpg
 
My heart wants to believe Gronk will come back. My head knows that, with the new rules making PI reviewable, he probably retired because Goodell threatened him at gunpoint.
 
And none of this is relevant to this discussion.

Of course there is a life after Gronk and obviously BB and McDaniels will figure it out and hand Brady gameplans that will give him other reliable presnap reads and ways to put him into favorable personnel mismatch situations.

But if you wanna reply to my post at least stick to script and don't move the goalposts. This was about Gronk not being important anymore and opponents not planning around him.

Don't worry. I won't be replying to your posts anymore.
 
My heart wants to believe Gronk will come back. My head knows that, with the new rules making PI reviewable, he probably retired because Goodell threatened him at gunpoint.

My heart also wants to believe gronkowski will come back. But my head believes injuries have taken a huge permanent toll on him. He just can't run Anymore!
 
Many teams have drafted D guys and figured out to defend #87 meanwhile the Pats have retooled their offense, more focus on a versatile O Backfield and overall bigger receivers which may create more mismatches.. my expectations of Harry are realistic as are the expectations of Thomas and Inman.

But I think we are gonna be OK and probably better than we thought we would be after the retirement of Gronk, when the headlines about the Pats were rife with; "Is this the end of the Pats Dynasty"???..
 
I'm not putting a lot of expectations on Harry. In 20 years here NO rookie WR has gotten over 520 yds.

So, while the situation is lining up for Harry to play a bigger role in the offense than most rookies have, anything in the 5-6OO yard range would be a GREAT rookie season relative to the Pats. And while its not likely going to get him any post season honors, it will be a great sign for his long term future development.

In other words, anyone who think's Harry is gong to become Brady's "go to guy" and be a 1000 yd type receiver in his first year is gong to be disappointed. Let the kid be a rookie this year, and not overly pressure him with grandiose expectations.

I'm hoping for Malcolm Mitchell +10 or +15%

Malcolm Mitchell Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

If he tips the scales on first downs, then a large part of the GronkShadow gets colored in. Long, patient, clock-eating drives can really piss of a defense. Suck the secondary in closer - then (maybe) Dorsett's speed can be used more effectively.
 
It seems pretty obvious that Gronk, at least so far, is not replaceable, so we are going with a different look for the offense this year, whatever that may be. We've loaded up on receivers and old, reliable TEs. I'm sure lots will be tried and we will morph into the best offense for the players we do have by mid-season. As usual, I am excited to see what BB, JMcD and TB come up with.
 
I am not saying that he was as much of a receiving threat as in every other season. But his value goes far beyond that. This is also the reason why people completely overvalue a player like Kelce or Graham. They are truly defined by their fantasy level stats because that is pretty much most of the impact they have on the game.

You keep talking about him as if the receiving aspect of his game is what made him a HoF player when in reality its all the other things he was enabling the team to do what made him so unique. And those things he was still doing last year.



Again you keep talking about him as a receiving threat when my point was something entirely different. Only his presence on the field in 22 gave the Rams difficulty in deciding how to handle their own personnel. With a lesser blocker or receiver as TE on the field the Rams will have less headaches deciding between base and sub in this situation and all of this might play out differently.

You focus too much on the plays where he touched the ball and not enough on all other plays where his presence affected the opponents approach.

What teams had to defend was a big slow guy with great hands. He wasn't demanding some manner of double coverage on EVERY play.



I don't think you will even get the passes to Edelman in the middle without Gronk being someone for Wade to consider. Again I think you are missing how much of an impact he had on plays where he is not even touching the ball.

Now as I have been saying through the offseason I don't think this means that the offense is in deep trouble. They will have to evolve into something new instead of falling into the trap of trying to fill the void left behind by a HoF player.

Clearly you must have written this for the sake of arguing a weak position and gong down with the ship, because NONE it makes any sense

First I made a POINT of specifically mentioning that Gronk's work in the other aspects of a TE's job was important. You either missed it or ignored it. My purpose was to question the "common wisdom" that the Pats pass offense is in trouble with Gronk's retirement.. BTW- Telling a good Pats fan your weak Kelce analogy is just insulting. It's like patting yourself on the back for pointing out the sun will rise in the East tomorrow. Thanks for the lesson. :rolleyes:

Your comment about the 22 makes me question your understanding of what Josh did with this adjustment. Now I know you know this, because you've shown your knowledge on this kind of topic many times. But indulge me in this. The Pats ran their 22 personnel package all year long. They ran during this game. It was NOTHING new. What was new was they spread out the "heavy personnel".

When the Rams saw who was on the field they naturally had their run defensive people on the field. That meant the Rams had 3 LB's and only 4 DB's on the field expecting some sort of run formation. Instead when they broke their huddle they found that same personnel package lined up 5 wide.

When the Pats spread those people out 5 wide with Allen wide, Devlin in the slot on one side, then Burkhead on the outside and Gronk in the slot on the other with Edelman starting inside Gronk and motioning to the Allen side. The 2 outside routes were short hooks. Gronk and Devlin ran seam routes and Edelman crossed underneath (and he was wide open again, btw)

But even though the LB started 2 steps behind on the play and Gronk got a free release, the LB had recovered to point where he was able to pull at Gronk's arm before the ball got there. The 2 other defenders that surrounded Gronk were the Safety and the CB who had been covering Burkhead and read the play so well he was only a step away from making a great recovery.

Yet it was to no avail because Brady threw a great ball and Gronk was strong enough to rip his arm away to make a good catch.

By the time this play happened, the Rams were beginning to hone in on it. Maybe Wade didn't change his personnel because he felt his LB could cover Gronk (He wasn't wrong) What he didn't expect was that his LB would bust on his assignment by starting out going with the motion. And he STILL was just inches from making the play. Imagine if he hadn't given Gronk that 2 step lead.

But lets get back to the REAL point. My supposition was that Gronk's retirement was NOT going to affect the Pats passing game, nearly as much as the "common wisdom" says it will. I never said I was right, just opened up the possibility and giving some data to back up my point.

This long and obviously drawn out response isn't to rebuke you for disagreeing with me on my supposition, but rather the examples you use to make your point. I would have expected better from you.

We are losing what might be the best TE ever to play in the league. Of COURSE there is going to be an impact. The issue is "how much" of one. I stand by my position of "less than you think".
 
Supporting @patfanken without getting into a breakdown or analysis. I am sure that they will have it figured out by the end of October and be ready when the weather is colder. They always do.
 
When the Rams saw who was on the field they naturally had their run defensive people on the field. That meant the Rams had 3 LB's and only 4 DB's on the field expecting some sort of run formation. Instead when they broke their huddle they found that same personnel package lined up 5 wide.

And now follow your train of thought through.. what happens if you put another TE in there than Gronk ? It tips the scales of what personnel / coverage to use because that other TE will be either an indication for a run or a pass. If the opponent wants to fake you out with it they are purposefully putting a weaker player on the field just for the deception.

With Gronk you didnt have that. Ever.

Look you keep mentioning his receiving stats or impact there again and again but to me that is not primarily relevant when it comes to how this offense operates. And to me what makes Gronk a first ballot HoF player and maybe the best TE eve is everything he was able to do in addition to his impact in the passing game.

We are losing what might be the best TE ever to play in the league. Of COURSE there is going to be an impact. The issue is "how much" of one. I stand by my position of "less than you think".

And we have the absolute same opinion here except apparently for different reasons. Your previous posts read to me like we will be fine because he wasn't a difference maker anymore which to me is simply not true.

My reasoning for why it will be less of an impact than many think is because the offense will just evolve into something new that does what it does with different means and doesn't try to replicate the Gronk years.

If I misread what you wrote then shame on me.
 
Supporting @patfanken without getting into a breakdown or analysis. I am sure that they will have it figured out by the end of October and be ready when the weather is colder. They always do.

I think most of us agree that BB and McDaniels will figure it out and it will have a smaller impact than many assume.
 
A little nugget of information from Lombardi's GM Shuffle podcast.

Lombardi says that Gronk has to essentially officially decide to come back before the trade deadline. If he wanted to become active after the deadline he apparently would have to go through waivers first.

Not sure if this came up anywhere so far..
 
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