The Cliff

patfanken said:

It was NEVER about a "cliff". What we are watching and will continue to watch over the next 2 years is an "erosion". The Brady mania for being in shape and his obsession with continuing to try and "get better" will mitigate against any actual "cliff" occurring.

I think 2017 was the acme of Brady's career. Now we will see the "erosion". We are never going to see the kind of season we saw in 17, and even the most die hard Brady fan would have to admit that he wasn't AS good in 18, and quite frankly I expect to be a little worse in 19 and 20.

But here's the thing. A slowly eroding Brady is STILL a better QB than the vast majority of QB's playing the game, and a FAR better alternative than whatever alternative the Pats could acquire to replace him. On his BEST day, Jimmy Garapollo was never as good as Tom Brady.

Clearly Bill and Josh are creating the offensive system that will allow Brady to enter his dotage as comfortably as possible, and the Pats ability to still be a competing for championships won't diminish much while it happens.

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While I completely agree with the choice of "Erosion" over "Cliff" I don't get why you think it is unthinkable that Brady could hit 2017 levels again.

As you are saying yourself.. Part of the reason he is able to continue playing at a high level is because our offense is build in a way that mitigates the more obvious signs of decline other QBs have shown (arm strength, throwing ducks ect.).

Now in the post-Gronk world if we end up in a situation where he has to heave the ball deep frequently you will definitely see a difference as the season keeps wearing on him. But if we can continue with our normal quick passing, chain moving offense I am not sure why he could not have another season -- statistically speaking -- as in 2016 or 2017.

Which of his abilities do you think could erode that affects that kind of style in any significant way ?

Keep in mind that in 2018 many of his INTs last year were accidental and not on him. So last year was really not as bad as it looks on the stat sheet.

Either way I completely agree that this is more about erosion than a cliff unless he suffers some kind of significant injury.

SBLIII said:

I'm including injury. It's the major reason why.

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Even including injury, it's rare that an elite QB's play just drops off a cliff.

ivanvamp said:

If Brady is going off a cliff, all these other guys have completely flipped off, crashed, and burned. But you don't hear people talk about these other guys in the same way. Except for Eli...people just talk about how he's bad.

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Ratings and clicks man. That's all it is. Ignore the noise!

SBLIII said:

you mean 2016?

I agree with the rest of your post.

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Brady was deservedly the MVP in 2017. You forgot so soon?

luuked said:

While I completely agree with the choice of "Erosion" over "Cliff" I don't get why you think it is unthinkable that Brady could hit 2017 levels again.

As you are saying yourself.. Part of the reason he is able to continue playing at a high level is because our offense is build in a way that mitigates the more obvious signs of decline other QBs have shown (arm strength, throwing ducks ect.).

Now in the post-Gronk world if we end up in a situation where he has to heave the ball deep frequently you will definitely see a difference as the season keeps wearing on him. But if we can continue with our normal quick passing, chain moving offense I am not sure why he could not have another season -- statistically speaking -- as in 2016 or 2017.

Which of his abilities do you think could erode that affects that kind of style in any significant way ?

Keep in mind that in 2018 many of his INTs last year were accidental and not on him. So last year was really not as bad as it looks on the stat sheet.

Either way I completely agree that this is more about erosion than a cliff unless he suffers some kind of significant injury.

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Well it will be certainly interesting to watch how it goes this season. IMHO what to look for will be if his game "erodes" as the season goes on. For example, the Drew Brees at the end of last season was NOT the same guy he was at the start. Even without any major injuries, at this stage the wear and tear of all those practices and games can wear down a 42 year old man.

As usual this is an ever evolving offense that has always looked to the mantra of putting players in positions to do what they do well and not ask them to do what they can't. This applies to Brady too, at this point. It will be very interesting to see what this edition of the Pats offensive philosophy turns out to be. But I don't think "fast break" will describe it.

As for why I don't think Brady can hit the levels he had in 2017 is mostly age based. But also I think the people around him have changed significantly. No Gronk (at his best), No Cooks type threat. The Pats have relied on long drives for some time now. I'm guessing this offense will be even more stolid. This offense will be more like the "clock killin' Corey Dillon" variety, where time of possession will be a major goal. Not many 6 play 60+ yd TD drives for this team.

We shall see

203Pat said:

In recent years have we ran that pass to Brady in a game we actually won? I can think of Philly in the regular season a few years ago, then the Philly Super Bowl as well as the Titans game last year.

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I remember running it in TC a few years back...worked like a charm with Brady running into the EZ.

Another one was in the 2001 season...late in the season against Miami...not a TD, but a big play.

patfanken said:

It was NEVER about a "cliff". What we are watching and will continue to watch over the next 2 years is an "erosion". The Brady mania for being in shape and his obsession with continuing to try and "get better" will mitigate against any actual "cliff" occurring.

I think 2017 was the acme of Brady's career. Now we will see the "erosion". We are never going to see the kind of season we saw in 17, and even the most die hard Brady fan would have to admit that he wasn't AS good in 18, and quite frankly I expect to be a little worse in 19 and 20.

But here's the thing. A slowly eroding Brady is STILL a better QB than the vast majority of QB's playing the game, and a FAR better alternative than whatever alternative the Pats could acquire to replace him. On his BEST day, Jimmy Garapollo was never as good as Tom Brady.

Clearly Bill and Josh are creating the offensive system that will allow Brady to enter his dotage as comfortably as possible, and the Pats ability to still be a competing for championships won't diminish much while it happens.

Click to expand...

I actually don't think Brady has had his acme season yet. I think he has ONE MORE big season left in him, IMO.

Kinda like in "Balboa" (a.k.a. Rocky VI)....Duke was telling Rocky that each great fighter has one more fight left in him.....

Hyped said:

I actually don't think Brady has had his acme season yet. I think he has ONE MORE big season left in him, IMO.

Kinda like in "Balboa" (a.k.a. Rocky VI)....Duke was telling Rocky that each great fighter has one more fight left in him.....

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Your lips to God's ear

patfanken said:

As for why I don't think Brady can hit the levels he had in 2017 is mostly age based. But also I think the people around him have changed significantly. No Gronk (at his best), No Cooks type threat.

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Gotcha. From that angle I totally agree that it will be difficult. I misunderstood and I thought his "erosion" would be the main reason.

He hasn’t hit it yet but he will at some point. It’ll be tougher this year with no Gronk but based off everything I saw last season he still a couple more fantastic years in him.

robertweathers said:

Tom threw a dart at Matt Damon's window.

That alone indicates there is no cliff.

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Yes, on that take, he it it dead-on in the middle of the window.

TommyBrady12 said:

Wasn’t he dealing with a knee injury early in the season?

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I thought he looked off starting with the Green Bay game. At least, that's when it was really noticeable to me. His numbers were okay at that point, but his motion looked seriously off.

Hyped said:

I actually don't think Brady has had his acme season yet. I think he has ONE MORE big season left in him, IMO.

Kinda like in "Balboa" (a.k.a. Rocky VI)....Duke was telling Rocky that each great fighter has one more fight left in him.....

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I agree with that. I think 2019 could be back to 32/8 or so.

Feels like at least 5 INTs last year were because of dropped passes.

I did not see any decline. I thought Brady was exceptional in the playoffs and his stats were incredibly misleading. The 1st half against the Chargers was as high a level of offensive dominance I have ever seen and to turn around the next week and score 37 points in the cold in hostile KC was incredible. The Pats scored 78 points combined and Brady threw for nearly 700 yards and led 3 straight TD drives when all the chips were down. He gets hurt by the fact that they continually ran the ball in when close to the goal line. He was not as effective in the Super Bowl but came through with 10 points in the 4th quarter to put the game away. He had 2 bad throws (EZ pick against KC and 1st throw in SB) that hurt but was generally every bit as good as he normally has been in the playoffs.

TommyBrady12 said:

Wasn’t he dealing with a knee injury early in the season?

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Yea supposedly an mcl in the titans game.

203Pat said:

In recent years have we ran that pass to Brady in a game we actually won? I can think of Philly in the regular season a few years ago, then the Philly Super Bowl as well as the Titans game last year.

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Lost all 3 of those games but the play did work in the first philly game, just a disastrous day otherwise

SBLIII said:

I agree with that. I think 2019 could be back to 32/8 or so.

Feels like at least 5 INTs last year were because of dropped passes.

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I am thinking better than that....LOL...

I'd like to see Brady take back the TD record.