The Cliff

PatriotsReign · May 3, 2019

Fact is, Brady will decline at some point, but it’s not something I’m going to look for or worry about. It’s out of my control so I’ll just enjoy the show as long as it continues to run

It’s really that simple. It doesn’t require thought, analysis or even discussion. After all, we’re just fans, not NFL analysts!

PatsFan2 · May 3, 2019

SBLIII said:
Brady did not experience a dropoff in play compared to the rest of his career.

You simply can't have the same stats when,

1) Gronk drops off SIGNIFICANTLY
2) You lose Brandin Cooks
3) Gordon gets acquired during the season and leaves during the season as well
4) Edelman comes back from ACL, misses first 4 games
5) Michel was not the receiver Lewis was yet, and he also was in and out of the lineup
6) Hogan got worse also

A lot of factors played into declining production.

Exactly some of Brady's most trusted Targets hit that cliff last season instead of him. But when you think of the potential of his target in 2019 Edelman - Gordon - Thomas the pup N'Keal Harry. I say cliff what cliff??

IcyPatriot · May 3, 2019

At some point of course Brady will tail off.
However barring injury there will be no cliff - he's too dedicated for that to happen.
I like the emphasis on our running game which will lessen his hits.
I don't see this decision as being stats related.
It will come down to plays Brady knows he should be making - and isn't -

his decision comes then.

203Pat · May 3, 2019

robertweathers said:
MIA @ home in 2001. Thats it and that ain't recent.

We should rip that page out of the playbook and fire it into the sun.

oldrover · May 3, 2019

https://imgflip.com/memegenerator

maust · May 3, 2019

Triumph said:
The Cliff is usually noticed first....

...when someone goes off of it.

Flash · May 3, 2019

Athletes fall off cliffs because of accumulated mileage on their bodies as well as simply the fact that old body parts cannot heal as fast as they do when they are young. I really do think that because Brady throws the ball away more often than most other elite QBs do and the fact Brady has remained healthy throughout most of his career (outside of a torn ACL), Brady's career has extended by quite a few years. As long as he keeps avoiding significant injuries I think he can play at an elite level for another two years at least.

People keep bringing up Manning but it's not the same case at all. Manning was already throwing ducks because of his neck injury from before, and IIRC he injured his quad or some other leg part that caused him unable to plant his foot. That's why Manning fell off a cliff and ofc, non-Patriots fans want Brady to fall off of a cliff too.

VectorPrime · May 3, 2019

Manning fell off the cliff because his neck was infused to his spine with experimental surgery and though it saved his career he retained permanent nerve damage that was going to inevitably catch up with him in a bad way. Favre was a bum who spent his offseasons drinking beer and showing up to camp out of shape. The comparisons to Brady are so dumb.

tasmlab · May 3, 2019

I haven't heard much 'cliff' or decline patter from the media this year. Maybe I'm reading the right (or wrong) things. Most seem to concede that Brady is something the rest of the league just has to deal with.

On a different point, does anyone give the Rams' defense any credit for a good game? If you had told a Rams fan ahead of time that the Rams D will hold Brady to 13 points, they would've rightly scheduled the victory parade.

SBLIII · May 3, 2019

tasmlab said:
I haven't heard much 'cliff' or decline patter from the media this year. Maybe I'm reading the right (or wrong) things. Most seem to concede that Brady is something the rest of the league just has to deal with.

On a different point, does anyone give the Rams' defense any credit for a good game? If you had told a Rams fan ahead of time that the Rams D will hold Brady to 13 points, they would've rightly scheduled the victory parade.

Yeah, Wade Phillips had the perfect gameplan. Us not having a vertical threat at WR helped but still.

patfanken · May 3, 2019

It was NEVER about a "cliff". What we are watching and will continue to watch over the next 2 years is an "erosion". The Brady mania for being in shape and his obsession with continuing to try and "get better" will mitigate against any actual "cliff" occurring.

I think 2017 was the acme of Brady's career. Now we will see the "erosion". We are never going to see the kind of season we saw in 17, and even the most die hard Brady fan would have to admit that he wasn't AS good in 18, and quite frankly I expect to be a little worse in 19 and 20.

But here's the thing. A slowly eroding Brady is STILL a better QB than the vast majority of QB's playing the game, and a FAR better alternative than whatever alternative the Pats could acquire to replace him. On his BEST day, Jimmy Garapollo was never as good as Tom Brady.

Clearly Bill and Josh are creating the offensive system that will allow Brady to enter his dotage as comfortably as possible, and the Pats ability to still be a competing for championships won't diminish much while it happens.

SBLIII · May 3, 2019

patfanken said:
It was NEVER about a "cliff". What we are watching and will continue to watch over the next 2 years is an "erosion". The Brady mania for being in shape and his obsession with continuing to try and "get better" will mitigate against any actual "cliff" occurring.

I think 2017 was the acme of Brady's career. Now we will see the "erosion". We are never going to see the kind of season we saw in 17, and even the most die hard Brady fan would have to admit that he wasn't AS good in 18, and quite frankly I expect to be a little worse in 19 and 20.

But here's the thing. A slowly eroding Brady is STILL a better QB than the vast majority of QB's playing the game, and a FAR better alternative than whatever alternative the Pats could acquire to replace him. On his BEST day, Jimmy Garapollo was never as good as Tom Brady.

Clearly Bill and Josh are creating the offensive system that will allow Brady to enter his dotage as comfortably as possible, and the Pats ability to still be a competing for championships won't diminish much while it happens.

you mean 2016?

I agree with the rest of your post.

VectorPrime · May 3, 2019

patfanken said:
It was NEVER about a "cliff". What we are watching and will continue to watch over the next 2 years is an "erosion". The Brady mania for being in shape and his obsession with continuing to try and "get better" will mitigate against any actual "cliff" occurring.

I think 2017 was the acme of Brady's career. Now we will see the "erosion". We are never going to see the kind of season we saw in 17, and even the most die hard Brady fan would have to admit that he wasn't AS good in 18, and quite frankly I expect to be a little worse in 19 and 20.

But here's the thing. A slowly eroding Brady is STILL a better QB than the vast majority of QB's playing the game, and a FAR better alternative than whatever alternative the Pats could acquire to replace him. On his BEST day, Jimmy Garapollo was never as good as Tom Brady.

Clearly Bill and Josh are creating the offensive system that will allow Brady to enter his dotage as comfortably as possible, and the Pats ability to still be a competing for championships won't diminish much while it happens.

Yep. We’ve definitely already seen the best of Brady but as long as he stays healthy and motivated he can still be a top 5ish QB by the time he turns 45. It’s amazing too that I think we’ve already seen the best of Rodgers and he’s only 36! And Big Ben is going to be plain trash before long. Eli is already there. Phillip Rivers is the only older QB aging gracefully.

Oh and Brees is still great but who knows if he’ll last.

nabwong · May 3, 2019

robertweathers said:
Tom threw a dart at Matt Damon's window.

That alone indicates there is no cliff.

Matt Damon's son's window. Tom Brady also had kittens for breakfast that morning.

SBLIII · May 3, 2019

VectorPrime said:
Yep. We’ve definitely already seen the best of Brady but as long as he stays healthy and motivated he can still be a top 5ish QB by the time he turns 45. It’s amazing too that I think we’ve already seen the best of Rodgers and he’s only 36! And Big Ben is going to be plain trash before long. Eli is already there. Phillip Rivers is the only older QB aging gracefully.

Oh and Brees is still great but who knows if he’ll last.

In terms of passer rating Brady had these rankings during the SB winning seasons

6
10
9
5
2
11

Obviously passer rating doesn't equal a QB ranking but top 10 might do it already.

As long as our DB play is elite. That has been a very consistent theme with our SB wins.

Competent and efficient QB play and great, great DBs.

On the other hand if you are the best QB in the NFL and have guys who can't cover you probably aren't winning the title.

SammyBlueCat · May 3, 2019

Does he have 1 year left?
Does he have 2 years left?
Does he have 3 years left?

???

SBLIII · May 3, 2019

SammyBlueCat said:
Does he have 1 year left?
Does he have 2 years left?
Does he have 3 years left?

???

Yes.

VectorPrime · May 3, 2019

SBLIII said:
On the other hand if you are the best QB in the NFL and have guys who can't cover you probably aren't winning the title.

The 2010, 2011, and 2017 Patriots

Deus Irae · May 3, 2019

SBLIII said:
as someone pointed, the cliff usually comes suddenly and you don't drop off just slightly, you completely lose it.

The demise/cliff/decline has not happened yet. It can happen at any time but I wouldn't necessarily expect it this year. My guess is Brady has a very good feeling when it will come and he would have retired on top if he would sense it soon.

As has been discussed on this forum multiple times: absent injury, the "cliff" usually doesn't come suddenly, and elite QBs do, in fact, usually fade over time, as opposed to completely losing it. Here's the list of HOFers, including the QBs. Anyone can go through it and find that out.

Pro Football Hall of Fame Inductees | Pro-Football-Reference.com

The moral of the story, as always, is to make sure that you don't just trust the word of the media.

SBLIII · May 3, 2019

Deus Irae said:
As has been discussed on this forum multiple times: absent injury, the "cliff" usually doesn't come suddenly, and elite QBs do, in fact, usually fade over time, as opposed to completely losing it. Here's the list of HOFers, including the QBs. Anyone can go through it and find that out.

Pro Football Hall of Fame Inductees | Pro-Football-Reference.com

The moral of the story, as always, is to make sure that you don't just trust the word of the media.

I'm including injury. It's the major reason why.

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