The draft

PatsDeb said:

Yes, BB will trade down for sure, if for no other reason than he knows that I have been sitting there all night watching the rest of the first round and that buffoon Roger Goodell with baited breath wondering/anticipating/ready to jump up and down to hear and see the words, "with the 32nd pick, the Patriots select.....!!!!!" (and it will flash across the bottom of the screen "the Patriots have traded the 32nd pick to [fill in loser team] for a 3rd rounder and a ham sandwich next year).

Truth. This has happened to me more than once...

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While frustrating for sure, one thing to consider is the idea of it being a better QB class next year in 2020. The #32nd pick may indeed be traded, but it won’t be for a third rounder (giving us four, plus the two seconds) and a ham sandwich. It will be for a third rounder and an additional first rounder for next year.

When you factor in the 3 third rounders for 2020 (from the losses of Brown + Flowers), having multiple firsts seems like another year of being stockpiled.

As far as Thursday and Friday go, we keep hearing how deep the second and third rounds are, so having 6 total picks in the top 100 selections PLUS an additional first for 2020 may end up better than “just” having the 6 picks that we’re scheduled for now.

Belichick rewards our patience on Thursday night one way or the other.

supafly said:

While frustrating for sure, one thing to consider is the idea of it being a better QB class next year in 2020. The #32nd pick may indeed be traded, but it won’t be for a third rounder (giving us four, plus the two seconds) and a ham sandwich. It will be for a third rounder and an additional first rounder for next year.

When you factor in the 3 third rounders for 2020 (from the losses of Brown + Flowers), having multiple firsts seems like another year of being stockpiled.

As far as Thursday and Friday go, we keep hearing how deep the second and third rounds are, so having 6 total picks in the top 100 selections PLUS an additional first for 2020 may end up better than “just” having the 6 picks that we’re scheduled for now.

Belichick rewards our patience on Thursday night one way or the other.

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While trading back to stockpile high-round picks for next year always seems like a good idea, at some point real soon -- and I'm hoping it's THIS year -- the Patriots need a serious injection of young TALENT. That means actually spending high-round picks on players that will compete immediately for starting jobs vs. bargain hunting for role players.

UptownPatsFan said:

..yeah, sooooo I’m sold..

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This doesn't say much but I REALLY HOPE BB make that rare trade up in the 1st rd for this kid

Tunescribe said:

While trading back to stockpile high-round picks for next year always seems like a good idea, at some point real soon -- and I'm hoping it's THIS year -- the Patriots need a serious injection of young TALENT. That means actually spending high-round picks on players that will compete immediately for starting jobs vs. bargain hunting for role players.

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Agreed, although they currently have 6/101 picks, so sacrificing the first rounder this year to add another third still gets them at the 6/101 mark. It would simply be 2 seconds and 4 thirds.

In a draft where many experts feel that the talent level is similar from say, 40-75, it may be an idea worth pondering, especially if they wish to have more ammo (double first rounders in 2020) for what seems to be a much better QB class, next year.

I guess the issue isn’t necessarily how they get there, but whether or not they hit on some of the picks they end up taking. You’re certainly right that they need to get younger, faster, cheaper, and deeper at some key positions.

supafly said:

Belichick rewards our patience on Thursday night one way or the other.

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Our patience may be rewarded more on Friday nite than Thursday nite.. when I wake up Fri AM expect to see that the Pats traded down...

If next year is deeper at QB, it makes a lot of sense to trade #32 for a 1st next year and have the capitol to get a franchise QB. Brady's successor should be the #1 priority.

UMD Safety Darnell Savage is a...savage.

supafly said:

Agreed, although they currently have 6/101 picks, so sacrificing the first rounder this year to add another third still gets them at the 6/101 mark. It would simply be 2 seconds and 4 thirds.

In a draft where many experts feel that the talent level is similar from say, 40-75, it may be an idea worth pondering, especially if they wish to have more ammo (double first rounders in 2020) for what seems to be a much better QB class, next year.

I guess the issue isn’t necessarily how they get there, but whether or not they hit on some of the picks they end up taking. You’re certainly right that they need to get younger, faster, cheaper, and deeper at some key positions.

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Yes, and...it seems like the consensus every year is that "this draft is deep from the middle of the second round through the fourth" or something similar. Not sure what to think about that given how often it is said.

I want AJ Brown or N’Keal Harry

Or both.

Trading up using 1st-3rd round picks is a losing proposition. If you get 6 chances in the first three rounds, you're going to hit a few times. I'd rather have two more chances in those rounds than the difference between the guy at 32 and the guy at 21. And moving down only matters if you end up with no one left to take in your top tier and you can pick up additional useful picks (and picks in future drafts; rather have a 4th next year than a 5th this year).

People get enamored with players but it pays to remember that most of the players in the draft won't be any good, and that includes 1st rounders.

primetime said:

People get enamored with players but it pays to remember that most of the players in the draft won't be any good, and that includes 1st rounders.

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Right? It's like horse racing. You might be convinced that your skill is going to let you pick the winner and you bet it all on one horse. BB would rather trade your ticket for seven chances, even on some longshots, knowing the odds are better with multiple bets.

Im all fpr trading down or up. Should be noted that trading down for more picks doesn't = success.

Every draft is different. Could be deep intonthe 7th or not at all. If there aren't any good players more picks won't help.

I wouldn't say this a "deep" after studying it.

My "No names, just positional slotting" draft attempt:

What we know or think we know.....

-BB & Co. have at times used the first round as a feeder system for the DL. To paraphrase our leader...'There are only so many large athletic dudes on the planet'
-We also know the Patriots DL has no foundation piece and is currently manned by short term assets
-We know our WR grouping is wafer thin even after BB went discount shopping this offseason
-We know BB is reluctant to use #1's for WRs who: take time to develop, may or may not earn Brady's trust, only touch the ball 6 times on a great day
-We hear few WRs are worthy of 1st round status
-We know the Patriots safety corps is very long in the tooth with McCourtey discussing retirement and Chung aging with dings
-We know BB has never been shy of deploying premium assets to fill safety slots though with mixed results
-We watched NE spend a #1 draft pick on the OL last year and sign a temporary solution at LT. I have zero expectation Bill will spend another #1 on OL.
-We know the Patriots TE cupboard is nearly bare
-We know how much BB values TE, spending premium assets at various times during the past 2 decades
-We hear how NE kicks every tire during the draft with grand stories about Bill's willingness to move significantly up for premium draft talent yet nothing ever materializes though BB has made modest jumps.

My generalized predictions:

BB shoots for the moon to secure an Iowa TE but balks at the cost
BB goes DL in the first, secures a S and a WR in the second
I expect a Tackle , TE, and DE next
I expect Bill then doubles down at WR, S, TE
I believe BB will take flyers at LB, interior OL
I saved one slot for QB but have no clue who or when
And as usual, BB will seek CB gems in the UDFA market and/or use newly created #7's to secure potential unpolished gems before they hit the UDFA market.

Given the perceived depth of the draft, I expect BB to let the draft come to him and use every opportunity to create ammunition for both this year and next, especially if he does get ambitious in the 1st round creating the need to restock picks .

With 12 picks, I wouldn't be surprised if BB buys an annuity......an injured player who won't be available in 2019 ..."value anomaly"

UptownPatsFan said:

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We also lost Hogan and Patterson at WR, picked up Thomas at WR, so at least one WR needed, preferably 2

The only reason you move down is to pick up extra picks next year; the reason you move up is to ensure you get a guy you want while only giving up picks you can afford to jettison because of roster space issues. The draft is 4 rounds long, and the hit rate on 5th-7th round picks isn't meaningfully better than just signing guys after the draft. Generally, the best part about 5th-7th rounders is that you can use them as ballast for deals for veterans.

UptownPatsFan said:

UMD Safety Darnell Savage is a...savage.

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starting to think he is a real possibility at 32.

TommyBrady12 said:

We also lost Hogan and Patterson at WR, picked up Thomas at WR, so at least one WR needed, preferably 2

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2 wrs 2 TEs 2 QBs one late to compete with Etling.
One to push and compete with Hoyer for now.
Id like to see Stidham in the third Thorson in the 6th kind of situation

One scouting reports about Stidham said top 5 talent but doesn't have the nuances to be a top QB that all can be coached baby.
Thorson and Stick are binkies both guys ball and compete.

So what 5th round talent will we be drafting in round 2 this year?