Gost is back: Two-year deal

scout · Mar 15, 2019

A kicker can win a game. With that in mind, even the highest paid kicker is not a high cap hit. Dollar for dollar, Ghost is only second to Brady in regards to replacing players. If you disagree, name the player. Hightower, Gilmore, or McCourty are considerations, but have huge contracts.

venecol · Mar 15, 2019

BobDigital said:
I have said recently and it has proven to be an unpopular opinion, but I stand by it.

I am fine with letting Gost walk. The simple matter of the fact is I just don't trust him. He has missed at least 1 kick in the super bowl 3 times in a row. Not mention the Denver playoff game. That is 4 runs in a row that when the big moment has come around he has missed; and they were all makable kicks.

Uhmm, No!

venecol · Mar 15, 2019

BobDigital said:
No, I can't say his replacement will be more reliable. That is the question right? : P

The way I see it there are 4 options.

1 - He is more reliable and we save money.
2 - He is equally reliable and we save money.
3 - He is less reliable but the money we can use elsewhere is a value add.
4 - He is less reliable and the money we can use elsewhere is a value loss.

I am not saying all options are equally likely but I am okay rolling the dice here.

No way. He simply doesn't deserve to be paid top market. His performance hasn't demonstrated that IMO.

There is a 5th option you aren't considering: we end up in field goal hell!!

No rolling the die!

Come on man, you can't get any more accurate than this vvvvv

varjao · Mar 15, 2019

It seems like the level of kickers in general have declined, except from that kicker from Baltimore.

I remember a few years ago anything inside 50 was automatic for most of the experienced kickers, and even from 52, 53. That was the limit, after that it was just the hail mary of the kicks.

But now it seems like they have that same % success from inside 45, and the 48s, 49s have become the 52s, 53s from years past. College kickers that have always been garbage are even worse.

So I agree with @BobDigital thoughts , I was even thinking with myself that they needed to do anything to keep flowers, even if that meant a cut or a let go and the first name that came to my mind was Gosts.

But I agree with the other guys too, better the devil you know, the guy is still good, I remember just 2 or 3 years ago, Gost, Dan Bailey and the guy from Baltimore were the top 3 kickers. Janikowski as well but he's pretty old so I guess there is a discount about his decline, it's not a big deal.

From this guys on the top 3 the guy from Baltimore keeps his boss status, even though I remember he missed a kick badly in the playoffs. Gost declined but he can still be considered one of the best. Dan Bailey that was a BOSS kicker in Dallas fell off the cliff pretty fast, and that's an important aspect to consider, kickers go down pretty fast because other than the leg and the hip there is a huge psychological component. So we know there's been a decline, BB knows, Gost knows but he's dealing with that and not letting that affect his game, the problem hasn't been confidence but just the physical part, the accuracy. So I take that as a good thing and would like him back but the Pats absolutely should consider drafting a kicker if a good guy is in their range this year or the next. This year they have a lot of picks so that would be the ideal scenario to spend one in a kicker, but as far as I know there is no college kicker worth taking.

If the Pats decide to keep Gost, I'm ready for a miss here and there in the regular season and the shanks in the playoffs. The coaching staff also having that mindset they will adjust and go for it more times or punt when they feel it.

Ian · Mar 15, 2019

TennisBallHead said:
He sucks. Get a new kicker. Even the one he made was shaky.

He wasn't that bad this season when you look at the totals, he was actually pretty solid. He hit 5-of-6 in the postseason, with his one miss in the Super Bowl (by the way, it was his first field goal attempt of the game - less than 24hrs after losing his grandfather, which didn't really get widely reported, so he was a little off to start). The ones he hit were critical, especially the one late that essentially sealed the game.

During the regular season, he was perfect from 20-39 yards (21/21), missed two from 40-49 (4/6) and hit 2/5 from 50+, with all three of his long misses being fairly tough.

When you look down the line, he was better than most and no where near as bad as others. I had a conversation in the game day chat after one of his misses from 40+ following a negative comment about him, with that poster not even realizing it was Gostkowski's first miss of the season from that distance. The NFL has made things tougher on kickers and he's not any different, but he remains a pretty solid option when you consider he's a decent all-around guy who kicks in a bad weather city and also in a bad weather (with the exception of Miami) Division.

Be careful what you wish for. We've been really lucky with what he's done and I think he's going to be a little tougher to replace (if it comes to that) than people think.

Hercules Rockefeller · Mar 16, 2019

Gost is an excellent field goal kicker and the best kickoff specialist in the league. Opponents get a lot of drives starting inside the 20 due to his skill. He is a very high priority signing, and I agree with others who have stated that he will likely re-sign after other moves have been made.

In his time with the Browns, Belichick used only Matt Stover at kicker. Save for Shayne Graham filling in for an injured Gost, only Vinatieri and Gostkowski have kicked for him in New England. It would be highly surprising to see them move on from Gost if he wants to return.

Ivan · Mar 16, 2019

TennisBallHead said:
He sucks. Get a new kicker. Even the one he made was shaky.

Troll

fnordcircle · Mar 16, 2019

The mere fact that people are ambivalent about him means he's a damn solid kicker. You guys don't remember or weren't around for the years between Tony Franklin and Adam Vinatieri.

Some of you have never known the pain of an unreliable kicker and it shows.

luuked · Mar 16, 2019

BobDigital said:
The fact BB hesitated there is pretty shocking. He had a chance to go up 2 score with ONLY a 42 yard kick and thought of trying to get that half yard vs a D that had been pretty solid all day.

Why did he hesitate to try to make it a 2 score game? There is only one reason in my mind. He was thinking, 'what if Gost misses?'

The coach didn't fully instantly trust his kicker to make a routine 42 yarder in a dome and thought of rolling the dice. I think that is a WAY under played story.

You are shocked that BB thinks through all possibilities and considers the odds of making less than a 1 yard to end the game vs. a 42 yard kick ?

Lets say the chances are around 80% -- Ghost was 3-for-4 from 40-49 in the postseason but this kick is on the lower end of the range -- you have a discussion about the biggest snap of your season every time. Whats are the odds to sneak it the few inches with the greatest QB sneak guy ever behind centre ?

Your mistake here is to attribute them talking it through solely to Ghost and trust when in reality this situation would play itself out exactly the same with ANY kicker in history. Now if there were 2-3 yards more to go and they consider going for it vs. a 45 yard field goal this would be a totally different ball game.

You are just seeing what you want to see and not whats there.

DarrylS · Mar 16, 2019

Do you all remember when Adam moved on to Indy?? Quite a bit of consternation and hand wringing over that move as well..

Not sure how this will turn out, my guess is that due to the quietness regarding this there is something going on behind the scenes with the Pats.. but if he were to leave not at all surprised, there is a master plan here..

TomPatriot · Mar 16, 2019

The Bears learned a lesson when they “moved on” from Robbie Gould, who’s been lights out ever since. Meanwhile, the Bears’ kicking game tumbled.

luuked · Mar 16, 2019

DarrylS said:
Do you all remember when Adam moved on to Indy?? Quite a bit of consternation and hand wringing over that move as well..

Not sure how this will turn out, my guess is that due to the quietness regarding this there is something going on behind the scenes with the Pats.. but if he were to leave not at all surprised, there is a master plan here..

Of course. It is not like most people here are in a Ghost fanclub or something. I just feel like the amount of steady kicking we have had for the entire BB tenure more or less made people underappreciate what an average kicker looks like and how good we have it.

If they have someone in their sight via the draft who could be a longterm replacement for Ghost while being cheaper then more power to them. But we have seen lot of teams in the recent years that tried to grab a kicker early in the draft and got burned by it. This is one of those positions where you have to absolutely get it right because there is no depth behind whoever you choose to go into the season with.

kennyb · Mar 16, 2019

Ghost is something of a choker. I'd like to see some rookies compete and give it to one of them. He is good on kickoffs, i will give you that.

Remember the giants sb when belichick goes for it on 4th and 9 rather than kick a 50 yarder? Seems he has gost doubts too.

Gronk · Mar 16, 2019

TomPatriot said:
The Bears learned a lesson when they “moved on” from Robbie Gould, who’s been lights out ever since. Meanwhile, the Bears’ kicking game tumbled.

It didn't tumble so much as it clanged off of every upright and crossbar in sight, but that is a good example. At least in the Bears case one could use the "rebuilding" justification...I don't remember all the particulars of Gould's release but I recall it seeming weird.

Had BB/NE targeted Gostowski out of college? I recall AV leaving in free agency but that was after he was dissatisfied with contract talks in '05 (is this where we're at with SG?), but was landing SG kinda dumb-luck or what? Unless they have a similar draft target in mind, or unless the money savings from Ghost to (Kicker B) are necessary to keep Brady, Edelman, or Gronk then I can't see any reason to toy with the position at this point.

SBLIII · Mar 16, 2019

kennyb said:
Ghost is something of a choker. I'd like to see some rookies compete and give it to one of them. He is good on kickoffs, i will give you that.

Remember the giants sb when belichick goes for it on 4th and 9 rather than kick a 50 yarder? Seems he has gost doubts too.

I hate his chip kicks. They almost never work and the opponent starts between the 35 and 40.

Sciz · Mar 16, 2019

kennyb said:
Ghost is something of a choker. I'd like to see some rookies compete and give it to one of them. He is good on kickoffs, i will give you that.

Remember the giants sb when belichick goes for it on 4th and 9 rather than kick a 50 yarder? Seems he has gost doubts too.

Yes, I’m sure Belichick has the exact same opinion of Gostkowski as he did 11 years ago.

scout · Mar 16, 2019

kennyb said:
Ghost is something of a choker. I'd like to see some rookies compete and give it to one of them. He is good on kickoffs, i will give you that.

Remember the giants sb when belichick goes for it on 4th and 9 rather than kick a 50 yarder? Seems he has gost doubts too.

Brady has 3-4 more season left before he retires and you want an unknown rookie kicker to take Ghost's place?

mcmurtry86 · Mar 16, 2019

BobDigital said:
I have said recently and it has proven to be an unpopular opinion, but I stand by it.

I am fine with letting Gost walk. The simple matter of the fact is I just don't trust him. He has missed at least 1 kick in the super bowl 3 times in a row. Not mention the Denver playoff game. That is 4 runs in a row that when the big moment has come around he has missed; and they were all makable kicks.

It's sad cause until 2015 he was absolute nails in the playoffs mostly.

Bronco - missed XP - forces the Pats to go for a 2PT conv and fail as opposed to going to OT.

Falcons - missed XP - forces the Pats to go for not 1 but 2 2PT conv. They get both but it made it a lot harder.

Eagles - Missed XP and FG (and passed up on a 55 yard kick cause they didn't trust their kicker). They could have been up 40-38 and just have sat on the ball late or have been down 37-38 and the Eagles would not have been able to pin their ears back and rush. The run game would still have been alive as a FG was all we needed.

Rams - missed a 47 yard kick early in the game. Also they passed up on a 51 yard chance.

I don't think you can just shrug these off. This is a consistent trend that shows the bigger the game the more shaky he gets.

In the last 4 years they have been in 11 playoff games. Of these 11 games 6 were competitive and 5 were not.

In the 5 non-competitive games he missed 1 XP and 1 FG (from 53 yards).
In the 6 competitive games he missed 3 XPs and 2 FGs (from 19 and 47 yards) Not to mentioned they passed up on a few makable kicks in lieu of going for it.

He was only perfect in 2 competitive games (Jags and KC AFCCG). In these games he was asked to make 7 XPs and 2 FGs (49 yards vs KC and 19 vs Jags). I guess you need to give him props for that 49 yarder; then again it was 14-0 at the time so not much pressure within the context.

I am not trying to dump on Gost but can we not pretend that there isn't an issue here that has persisted for YEARS in big games.

If you trust him to make a big kick in a close playoff game then clearly you haven't been paying attention. If you want the Pats to win another super bowl then it should seriously be discussed if using 4M on Gost is the best way to do. If you think he is going to miss at least 1 XP or 1 FG in a close playoff game or super bowl where those points come at a premium in tight games I just don't see why this can't be a debate.

So which potential replacement do you think would do better?

QuantumMechanic · Mar 16, 2019

SBLIII said:
I hate his chip kicks. They almost never work and the opponent starts between the 35 and 40.

Then blame Belichick. He’s the one calling for them.

ctpatsfan77 · Mar 16, 2019

As I posted before, Gostkowski makes 95% of his kicks in Q4 and OT. That's unlikely to be matched by anybody else, maybe ever.

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