Discussing a contract extension for Thuney

Minitron said:

Do you want to "waste" a draft pick on a OL early when we have that many holes to fill (WR x2, DL, DE, TE)? We ain't getting anybody in FA, so we have to ace the draft on these positions. I hope we can sign him to an extesion.

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I don't think it's ever a waste to spent a mid-round pick on an OL who you believe Scar can turn into a starter. Getting 3+ years of cheap starting OL production is worth the cost. If they've identified mid-round OL talent that they like, I do kinda expect them to go in that direction. Thuney was good this year and I would be happy if he was extended too. But if the money they've devoted to Mason and Andrews means they're reluctant to devote much more cap space to the interior line, I would get that too.

Draft picks and cap space are both finite resources, and either answer uses one or the other. My expectation is that the Pats will fill some of these holes using cap space and others using draft picks, and the only thing I think we could usually assume with any real confidence--that WR will be addressed in FA--even that is not a sure thing this year with the thin crop of FA receivers and the Titans outbidding us for Humphries. If we don't get Tate, the rest of the WRs on the market are pretty underwhelming,

oceansizer said:

Shaque Mason year ago was also seen by many of us as a gonner because of lack of money. However in a consequence of some movements he was extended an he is in the team. It all depends on some contracts' reatructures and Thuney's position in the eyes of BB. Nothing is impossible when Thuney is priority for the Pats.

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If the Pats give Thuney an $11M AAV extension, the interior line will account for over $20M of their 2020 cap. Cap-wise, the only real precedent I can think of for that would be 2011, when they paid premiums for both both Mankins and Brian Waters (though that was a short-term thing).

But I do think it's more unlikely than likely, given that Scar has consistently shown that he can get adequate production from the position for minimal investment.

BradyFTW! said:

If the Pats give Thuney an $11M AAV extension, the interior line will account for over $20M of their 2020 cap. Cap-wise, the only real precedent I can think of for that would be 2011, when they paid premiums for both both Mankins and Brian Waters (though that was a short-term thing).

But I do think it's more unlikely than likely, given that Scar has consistently shown that he can get adequate production from the position for minimal investment.

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Thuney isn’t getting more than mason

AndyJohnson said:

Thuney isn’t getting more than mason

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I agree, and that's why I don't think an extension will happen. With the cap going up at the rate it is, and with bad teams consistently overpaying for our OL talent in FA, and with the top guard contract in the league currently coming in at $16M AAV, I expect it would take a hell of an offer to convince Thuney to forego FA altogether.

Best chance of keeping him long-term, IMO, is to wait for him to hit FA, see what the offers are for him, and hope he doesn't get priced out of our range.

BradyFTW! said:

I agree, and that's why I don't think an extension will happen. With the cap going up at the rate it is, and with bad teams consistently overpaying for our OL talent in FA, and with the top guard contract in the league currently coming in at $16M AAV, I expect it would take a hell of an offer to convince Thuney to forego FA altogether.

Best chance of keeping him long-term, IMO, is to wait for him to hit FA, see what the offers are for him, and hope he doesn't get priced out of our range.

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I think he is a perfect candidate for an extension and comparing him with the highest paid g in the nfl is ludicrous.
We have had 2 LTs signed for big dollars in FA. I don’t remember the last IOL or RT that we lost to anyone paying big money.

BradyFTW! said:

I agree, and that's why I don't think an extension will happen. With the cap going up at the rate it is, and with bad teams consistently overpaying for our OL talent in FA, and with the top guard contract in the league currently coming in at $16M AAV, I expect it would take a hell of an offer to convince Thuney to forego FA altogether.

Best chance of keeping him long-term, IMO, is to wait for him to hit FA, see what the offers are for him, and hope he doesn't get priced out of our range.

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which is unlikely as well. Just let him leave in 20 and draft his replacement in that draft

AndyJohnson said:

I think he is a perfect candidate for an extension and comparing him with the highest paid g in the nfl is ludicrous.
We have had 2 LTs signed for big dollars in FA. I don’t remember the last IOL or RT that we lost to anyone paying big money.

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We hadn't lost a LT to FA until Solder, either. He became the highest paid lineman in the league despite being at best a little better than average. Agents understand that guys get overpaid to hell and back in FA, so the top contract out there does matter as a negotiating point, regardless of how much I'm sure we both agree that Thuney is nowhere near the best guard out there. Contracts like Norwell and Martin--both signed last offseason--show the direction in which guard pay is heading, and every guard with free agency on the horizon is absolutely going to take that into account in their contract negotiations. His agent wouldn't be doing his job if he didn't.

So where do you see a long-term Thuney extension coming in at? One that he would actually agree to? Even if you go ahead and pencil him in at $8M AAV, which would be less than Mason and would preemptively put him outside of the top 15 guard contracts in the NFL even before whatever happens over the next year and a half, you're still looking at $20M invested in the interior line in 2020, a position where Scar has repeatedly showed that he can get starter-caliber production out of castoffs and mid-round picks.

patfanken said:

Here's the thing. Currently we are seeing OLmen of dubious accomplishments getting around $11MM/yr and more. Thuney HAS 2 rings and 3 starting seasons on one of the best OL's in the league. Bottom line, what kind of deal do you suggest he take from the Pats when he is looking at over $12MM/yr in just 1 year?

Just sayin'

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I cannot give you exact numbers because I simply do not know what are Thuneys' expectations ( I assume you are guessing he is looking for 12 AAV what is on the other hand probable). Agree that Scar can do something from nothing and it could be a factor of Thuney's departure. My bottom line is if Thuney is an essential part for BB (like Mason seems to be) he would find a way to keep him.

Another thing we can do with Thuney is trade him. I want championship #7 so I'm not on board with this but BB will consider it. After the way he played Aaron Donald he may be at his most valuable now. I'm not in favor of it but I wouldn't be shocked.

I'd be inclined to draft and develop a mid-round guy this year and let Thuney go for a 3rd round comp pick, if the money will be that much.

BradyFTW! said:

If the Pats give Thuney an $11M AAV extension, the interior line will account for over $20M of their 2020 cap. Cap-wise, the only real precedent I can think of for that would be 2011, when they paid premiums for both both Mankins and Brian Waters (though that was a short-term thing).

But I do think it's more unlikely than likely, given that Scar has consistently shown that he can get adequate production from the position for minimal investment.

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$20 M as a value or as a %? $20M in today's cap is way less than $20M in 2011s cap

ALP said:

$20 M as a value or as a %? $20M in today's cap is way less than $20M in 2011s cap

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As a percentage, the interior line in 2011 was way less than $20M in total commitment, but Mankins and Waters were high-priced for the time guards. The salaries they made then would be bargains today.