Opinion: Trey Flowers won't be back next year

PatsFan2 · Feb 12, 2019

SBLIII said:
trent?

Thanks.

mgteich · Feb 12, 2019

Obviously, if this is true, there is no chance for the patriots to sign him.

After all, if he is better than Mcginest, Seymour, Tippett, Bruschi and all the rest, someone will pay more than we are willing to pay.

luuked said:
I disagree. I think he is the best BB-type front 7 player we have had in forever.

PatsFan2 · Feb 12, 2019

robertweathers said:
Any team that pays Trey $18m is dumb.

Let this be known I love Trey Flowers as a player he's a true Patriot came in this League and worked very hard to be where he is Today. Trey Flowers couldn't ask for a better scenario to maximize his value as a Football player. Can't say that I haven't wished I was him.

luuked · Feb 12, 2019

mgteich said:
Obviously, if this is true, there is no chance for the patriots to sign him.

After all, if he is better than Mcginist, Seymour, Tippett, Bruschi and all the rest, someone will pay more than we are willing to pay.

When I said in forever I essentially meant going back until that core defensive group we had during the early run. I guess I should have said best overall front 7 player in the 2010s.

mgteich · Feb 12, 2019

fair enough

So, Flowers in the best front seven player we've had in a decade. Perhaps that means that signing him would be the best use of $17M AAV not. Perhaps he is worth $10M 2019 cap room, and $20M thereafter, or not.

luuked said:
When I said in forever I essentially meant going back until that core defensive group we had during the early run. I guess I should have said best overall front 7 player in the 2010s.

PatsFan2 · Feb 12, 2019

mgteich said:
Obviously, if this is true, there is no chance for the patriots to sign him.

After all, if he is better than Mcginest, Seymour, Tippett, Bruschi and all the rest, someone will pay more than we are willing to pay.

Glad you edited was wondering who was Baracheii and the others they must have played well before my time.

LJRomanoff · Feb 12, 2019

SBLIII said:
I would love to have him back at 15 APY. But if this goes into truly elite pass rusher money, I would pass if I'm BB. I don't think he views Flowers as 18M-20 type player either.

As great as Flowers is I can't imagine anyone views him as worth several million more a year than JJ Watt and/or that he is worth a contract comparable to Mack.

PatsFan2 · Feb 12, 2019

LJRomanoff said:
As great as Flowers is I can't imagine anyone views him as worth several million more a year than JJ Watt and/or that he is worth a contract comparable to Mack.

And we have seen those guys outright took over games from the Defensive side of the ball Flowers is good but he ain't Khalil Mack or JJ Watt good yet or may never be.

luuked · Feb 12, 2019

LJRomanoff said:
As great as Flowers is I can't imagine anyone views him as worth several million more a year than JJ Watt and/or that he is worth a contract comparable to Mack.

Watt signed his contract in 2014. It is completely irrelevant what he is making for the market in 2019.

Ice_Ice_Brady · Feb 12, 2019

I believe this is the closest contract, and it's from 2016. Olivier Vernon for 5 years, $85M. $17M per year.

Peter King: How $85M Olivier Vernon Deal Got Done

Trey Flowers now and Olivier Vernon in 2016

Age: Vernon 25, Flowers 25

Height: Vernon 6'2", Flowers 6'2"

Weight: Vernon 270, Flowers 265

Sacks: Vernon 29 over 4 seasons (7.2 per year), Flowers 21 over 3 seasons (7.0 per year)

Pro Bowl/All-Pro: Neither had a selection, outside of analytics sites

Strengths: Both very similar with versatility as a pass rusher, run stopper, being able to rush inside and outside, high motor and seemingly near the ball on every play. Both do a lot better on more advanced analytic sites and generate a lot of pressures, though they aren't league leaders in traditional categories like sacks.

SBLIII · Feb 12, 2019

Ice_Ice_Brady said:
I believe this is the closest contract, and it's from 2016. Olivier Vernon for 5 years, $85M. $17M per year.

Peter King: How $85M Olivier Vernon Deal Got Done

Trey Flowers now and Olivier Vernon in 2016

Age: Vernon 25, Flowers 25

Height: Vernon 6'2", Flowers 6'2"

Weight: Vernon 270, Flowers 265

Sacks: Vernon 29 over 4 seasons (7.2 per year), Flowers 21 over 3 seasons (7.0 per year)

Pro Bowl/All-Pro: Neither had a selection, outside of analytics sites

Strengths: Both very similar with versatility as a pass rusher, run stopper, being able to rush inside and outside, high motor and seemingly near the ball on every play. Both do a lot better on more advanced analytic sites and generate a lot of pressures, though they aren't league leaders in traditional categories like sacks.

HE GONE

PatsBoy12 · Feb 12, 2019

robertweathers said:
Any team that pays Trey $18m is dumb.

The J-E-T-E it is then.

Soliel · Feb 12, 2019

Won’t matter. Buffalo has a lot of practice squad guys

Brady6 · Feb 13, 2019

MrNathanDrake said:
Hate to say it.

Someone is gonna give Flowers a lot of money. Like 15+ million per year. And the Pats aren't gonna come close to matching that.

What are the Pats options? Is it possible to tag him and then trade him so the Pats at least to get something in return? What's the back up plan if/when Flowers walks?

It really comes down to guaranteed money. You look at Malcolm Butlers contract do you think he will get past this season? So sure it looks like a 5 year, $61M deal but it will end up being a 2 year, $25M deal. The Patriots have more players play out their contracts than a lot of teams.

Brady6 · Feb 13, 2019

PatsFan2 said:
Ziggy Ansah should be Franchised.

Yeah Detroit won’t want to let those 4 sacks he put up last year slip away.

Tony2046 · Feb 13, 2019

PatsFan2 said:
IF Flowers is the best DE on the market this have to be one of the weakest FA DE markets in years. Well kinda similar to last years with Adrian Clayborn. I would caution buyer beware. Yes Flowers have age on his side but he has never had a double digit sack season or seasons. And I don't want to hear sacks are overrated.

But they are overrated.

SBLIII · Feb 13, 2019

Tony2046 said:
But they are overrated.

except they completely destroy drives.

Tony2046 · Feb 13, 2019

SBLIII said:
except they completely destroy drives.

A drive. Pressure creates incompletions, turnovers and screws with the QB's mental clock. Setting the edge contains the running game. Judging what a player should be paid or whether he's elite or not based on a sack stat is ludicrous imo.

Ivan · Feb 13, 2019

luuked said:
When I said in forever I essentially meant going back until that core defensive group we had during the early run. I guess I should have said best overall front 7 player in the 2010s.

I’m pretty sure most people understood exactly what you meant.Imo your take on Flowers and the possibility of re-signing him is right on the money. His value is his versatility in the various schemes they employ, and if it’s a reasonable market deal they can re-sign him. But if a team goes overboard they won’t match it, ultimately it comes down to guaranteed money, and they have the ability to give him a good deal in terms of guarantees. If he is willing to sign for 4/60/35 guaranteed I think it will get done. If he wants 80+ then he’s gone.

mgteich · Feb 13, 2019

"Overboard" seems to mean two things
1) more than posters here want the team to pay
2) more than the the patriots can get Flowers to sign for

There are 10 teams with more than $45M of cap room (and some with lots more), even after adjusting for the fact that some teams don't have 51 players under contract. The cap is expected to go up each year, so long-term contracts will look much better in a couple of years. Flowers in one of the top 5 free agents available. Some GM's like to go after the shiny free agents. Surely, someone will be giving him top money.
=====
As an aside, 4/$60/$35 guaranteed seems a reasonable stab at what the patriots might be willing to pay.

Ivan said:
.His value is his versatility in the various schemes they employ, and if it’s a reasonable market deal they can re-sign him. But if a team goes overboard they won’t match it, ultimately it comes down to guaranteed money, and they have the ability to give him a good deal in terms of guarantees. If he is willing to sign for 4/60/35 guaranteed I think it will get done. If he wants 80+ then he’s gone.

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