OT-ish: The gambling thread

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

And here's the sound of that window shutting on capitalizing on those MVP odds.

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Yeah, you were right about trying to get in before the games yesterday. The week 17 contests created a gap with Brees sitting, that’s for sure.

It’s Mahomes’ award. That said, it’s been awhile since the league MVP went on to win a SB, so maybe that trend will continue and help the Pats’ path to the big game.

fnordcircle said:

Badass day man, great job being a degenerate gambler!

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Well TBH I've reached an age where I lack the enthusiasm to be a serious degenerate at much else. I can't recall having a clean sweep on any previous 4 or more bet Week 17's although there haven't been a lot of them. As a rule it's unusual for me to find even 3 I like enough to throw down on in Week 17.

Out of the gate I don't see a lot to like for WC weekend...

Colts over Texans
Ravens over Chargers
Cowboys over Seahawks
Eagles over Bears

Colts spread
Dallas spread
Chargers spread
Bears spread

6 point teaser colts and chargers

ScottishPatriots said:

Interesting NFL Wildcard Round opening lines

Colts vs Texans - Texans -2.5
Seahawks vs Cowboys - Cowboys -2.5
Chargers vs Ravens - Ravens -3
Eagles vs Bears - Bears -5.5

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Somewhat interesting line movements already.

Ind at Hou is now down to Texans -1½ at some venues, -1 at others.
Sea at Dal is down to Cowboys -1 at many places.
LAC at Bal is steady w/Ravens -2½ across the board at the moment.
Phi at Chi is either Bears -5½ or -6, not much movement yet.

So far the public likes the Chargers more than any other game.
They also like Houston on the spread - but the Colts on the money line.

NFL Football Public Betting Chart - See Who The Public is Betting
Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds

jmt57 said:

Somewhat interesting line movements already.

Ind at Hou is now down to Texans -1½ at some venues, -1 at others.
Sea at Dal is down to Cowboys -1 at many places.
LAC at Bal is steady w/Ravens -2½ across the board at the moment.
Phi at Chi is either Bears -5½ or -6, not much movement yet.

So far the public likes the Chargers more than any other game.
They also like Houston on the spread - but the Colts on the money line.

NFL Football Public Betting Chart - See Who The Public is Betting
Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds

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Reverse line movement on the Philly Chicago game. Will be interesting to watch as the week rolls on.

I'm surprised so many of you are going with Dallas. Because the moment I saw the Seahawks getting points I felt like that was the best bet of the weekend, easily. But I think Seattle is going to end up taking either NO or LAC out of the playoffs and then losing in the NFCCG. I might be over-valuing their post season experience but I'm just not a big believer in the Cowboys.

fnordcircle said:

I'm surprised so many of you are going with Dallas. Because the moment I saw the Seahawks getting points I felt like that was the best bet of the weekend, easily. But I think Seattle is going to end up taking either NO or LAC out of the playoffs and then losing in the NFCCG. I might be over-valuing their post season experience but I'm just not a big believer in the Cowboys.

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We are in agreement. I was hoping the legion of idiots that often inflate Dallas lines would do me a solid and push the number to at least 3 but when I saw some offshore books dropping the half off the 2 1/2 open I took it while I could still get it. I still have hopes the late money will drive it up and if it does I will hit the game harder. Indy has been getting plenty of love that I don't particularly share and if Houston goes off as a pick or less I will get in. Right now the Sunday games are decidedly unattractive from where I sit.

I think probably half the people that like Seattle to win don’t realize how bad their run defense is

maust1013 said:

We are in agreement. I was hoping the legion of idiots that often inflate Dallas lines would do me a solid and push the number to at least 3 but when I saw some offshore books dropping the half off the 2 1/2 open I took it while I could still get it. I still have hopes the late money will drive it up and if it does I will hit the game harder. Indy has been getting plenty of love that I don't particularly share and if Houston goes off as a pick or less I will get in. Right now the Sunday games are decidedly unattractive from where I sit.

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Seattle +3 (buying half a point) would seem like a dream if you see it anywhere at 2.5. My poor wife will be proudly wearing her Vander Esch jersey that Santa brought her for Christmas, and I’ll be rooting for the Cboys, but I don’t have much faith that either of our teams will be destined for deep runs this year.

IcyPatriot said:

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I can’t hit both ends of a two team parlay and this dude knocks out the spread AND total of the Bears/Vikings game, then proceeds to nail 13 other selections in succession.

I think he deserves more than 100k!

supafly said:

I can’t hit both ends of a two team parlay and this dude knocks out the spread AND total of the Bears/Vikings game, then proceeds to nail 13 other selections in succession.

I think he deserves more than 100k!

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Seeing that brought back fond memories of 'The Card' back in the 70's and 80's.
Used to love playing the card - I always bet like 4 or 10 teams ... pretty much sucked at it
but it was fun and only a few bucks to play a few cards. When I think back perhaps
if i guessed more with less thought and research I might have won a few times.

Odds to win Super Bowl 53
Team Odds
New Orleans Saints +240
Los Angeles Rams +425
Kansas City Chiefs +470
New England Patriots +650
Chicago Bears +675
Baltimore Ravens +1300
Los Angeles Chargers +1500
Dallas Cowboys +2500
Houston Texans +2500
Seattle Seahawks +2800
Indianapolis Colts +3000
Philadelphia Eagles +3300

Odds to win Super Bowl LIII: Saints remain favorites as playoffs begin

IcyPatriot said:

Seeing that brought back fond memories of 'The Card' back in the 70's and 80's.
Used to love playing the card - I always bet like 4 or 10 teams ... pretty much sucked at it
but it was fun and only a few bucks to play a few cards. When I think back perhaps
if i guessed more with less thought and research I might have won a few times.

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I remember something in the 90s that we used to call “the sheet.” I’m guessing it was the same thing. You’d circle the numbers next to the team you wanted and the possible winnings were based on how many teams you chose. They were little slips of paper and the local bookies ran them.

I was terrible at it, so I don’t even know if they actually paid out or if it was just a hustle for my lower level crowd. You’re right—zero research and nothing but gut hunch picks based off of about 60 seconds of thought. That said, hitting a 5 team parlay is pretty effing hard, so that’s my main defense.

IcyPatriot said:

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That's cool, but just to put how brutal Vegas odds are in context.

Let's say each of these bets is roughly a 50/50 proposition. It's essentially taking your $5 and for the first win, multiplying it by 2 to get to $10. Multiply that $10 by 2 and you get $20.

Multiply the original $5 X 2 on your calculator 15 straight times, which is the equivalent of this bet.

You get a total of $163,800.

The ticket paid out $100,000, $63,800 less than actually winning 15 straight bets from your original $5, provided there were no fees/vigs to bet.

Not that we wouldn't all be thrilled with $100,000, but parlays have huge costs paid to the house. They actually take a bigger chunk out of each individual win than in straight up betting and winning 15 in a row, doubling your money each time. It's kind of like investment fees and how that 3% annual management fee kills you in the long run, whereas if you'd just straight up invested in the S&P, you'd double your money in like half the time due to that 3% annual setback.

You'd get a much better payoff if you played blackjack or roulette and doubled your money 15 straight times. I don't have time to do the math, but there are significantly better odds, unless of course you think this person wasn't just lucky and can consistently beat the books (I don't.)

IcyPatriot said:

Odds to win Super Bowl 53
Team Odds
New Orleans Saints +240
Los Angeles Rams +425
Kansas City Chiefs +470
New England Patriots +650
Chicago Bears +675
Baltimore Ravens +1300
Los Angeles Chargers +1500
Dallas Cowboys +2500
Houston Texans +2500
Seattle Seahawks +2800
Indianapolis Colts +3000
Philadelphia Eagles +3300

Odds to win Super Bowl LIII: Saints remain favorites as playoffs begin

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I've become convinced that the only way to win against Vegas is by long shot betting on futures like these, although I prefer full season bets like division winner, etc. and plunking money down on a team off to a bad start, usually the one with the best QB in the division, or especially with an elite QB.

On this list I like the Eagles at +3300. Nick Foles has won six do-or-die games in a row. That in itself makes me think 33:1 odds are too steep that he can't win 4 more. Will the Eagles win? Probably not. But certainly more likely than the implied 3% probability of these odds.

supafly said:

Seattle +3 (buying half a point) would seem like a dream if you see it anywhere at 2.5. My poor wife will be proudly wearing her Vander Esch jersey that Santa brought her for Christmas, and I’ll be rooting for the Cboys, but I don’t have much faith that either of our teams will be destined for deep runs this year.

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I guess I didn't communicate my jump very well, lol. I am already in and took the 2.5 because the drop had already begun elsewhere. I am with you when it comes to neither of those teams going far but I have no rooting interest in Seattle outside of a $250 bet.

supafly said:

I can’t hit both ends of a two team parlay and this dude knocks out the spread AND total of the Bears/Vikings game, then proceeds to nail 13 other selections in succession.

I think he deserves more than 100k!

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Its Bif!

I gave been slacking on using the spread calculator I came up with this season. But here is what it predicts this weekend.

Big on Dogs and Road Teams.