What’s the cap situation moving forward?

ScottishPatriots said:

Here's the cap for the full league NFL 2019 Salary Cap Tracker

I just don't see why Trey would sign with the Pats at below market rate when there's all these teams out there with so much money to spend.

Click to expand...

There certainly are some dazzlingly large numbers at the top of that list.

However, unless and until we dissect each of those teams' rosters, in-house FA situations, team needs, etc. - to the level of detail that Miguel does with the Pats' roster and cap - then we don't really know which teams will actually be in the market for Flowers' services or how much they might be willing to offer, or even if Flowers fits their defensive scheme.

The other thing is that "market rate" is still relatively undefined for 2019. Is it the $17.1M Franchise Tag that Ansah and Lawrence were paid this season? Is it Chandler Jones' $16.5M AAV, Ingram's $16.0M, or the $15.0M that Calis Campbell and JPP are getting? Or is it somewhere between Cam Jordan's $11.0M and Hunter's $14.4M?

Cap space wise, would it be reasonable for the Pat to offer Flowers a Gilmore-level contract ($13.0M AAV), if it's back-loaded to keep Flowers' 2019 cap hit around $5.5M-$6.0M? A Gilmore-level contract would put Flowers' AAV just outside the top-10 for 4-3 DEs.

Ultimately, it's Flowers' decision, but I'm not at all certain that the gap between what Flowers may be offered elsewhere and what the Pats may be reasonably able to afford is quite as large as most people seems to assume that it will be.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

There's one other wild-*** consideration.

How many offenses that the Pats are likely to be playing over the next few seasons will be transitioning to a mobile-QB/RPO/run-heavy base?

The Bills, Ravens and Chiefs already seem to be there, and the Pats will likely have all three of them on their 2019 schedule. That's four games, 25%, in which they'll need to defend that type of offense. A QB change may be coming for the 'Fins, too (potentially another two games in 2019). Who knows what other AFC teams may be joining them? Could the Pats end up needing to defend against that type of offense in half (or more) of their regular-season games by 2020?

As more teams have dumped their 3-4 defenses for a 4-3 style, competent 4-3 DEs (and DTs) have been in increasingly high demand recently, thus making them more difficult/expensive to acquire and retain. But 3-4 personnel may be more plentiful now, and somewhat less expensive. Many people seem to believe that 3-4 type schemes are inherently better for run-stopping and edge contain. What if BB intends to respond to thi possible trend in NFL offenses by transitioning back to something closer to a classic 3-4? What if he already started down that path, personnel-wise in 2017? If that's the case, how much future value would Flowers have for the Pats? Can he play something like the McGinest "elephant" role in a 3-4?

I'm not predicting this will happen, I'm just asking the questions.

McCourty may restructure, but any talk of letting him go leaves a bitter taste... he plays a "Harrison Type Role" in the locker room and is considered an extremely positive influence on this team...

maineman209 said:

As more teams have dumped their 3-4 defenses for a 4-3 style

Click to expand...

More teams have gone to a hybrid of 3 or 4 DL, 2 or 3 LBs, and the rest DBs of some typology. Just because the TV broadcast still lists the 'starting lineup' in traditional alignments doesn't mean that's the reality especially with base offensive alignment now with either 3 WRs or "light" TEs like Kelce that are better defended with a DB than a LB.

It's interesting that the media broadcasts haven't caught up to this fact to actually depict what is happening on the field.

Actually it's not that surprising given how much they distort the product.

mgteich said:

so, we can't draft and have had the best franchise and record in the NFL without good draft picks?

Click to expand...

Brady hides so many warts.

The Pats drafts have been lackluster. Certain positions they have success at like OL.

Tyvek Hill was a 5th
Adam Thielen undrafted
Doug Baldwin undrafted
Philip Linsday undrafted
John Brown went to Pittsburgh State in Kansas.
Kamara was a 3rd.

maineman209 said:

There certainly are some dazzlingly large numbers at the top of that list.

However, unless and until we dissect each of those teams' rosters, in-house FA situations, team needs, etc. - to the level of detail that Miguel does with the Pats' roster and cap - then we don't really know which teams will actually be in the market for Flowers' services or how much they might be willing to offer, or even if Flowers fits their defensive scheme.

The other thing is that "market rate" is still relatively undefined for 2019. Is it the $17.1M Franchise Tag that Ansah and Lawrence were paid this season? Is it Chandler Jones' $16.5M AAV, Ingram's $16.0M, or the $15.0M that Calis Campbell and JPP are getting? Or is it somewhere between Cam Jordan's $11.0M and Hunter's $14.4M?

Cap space wise, would it be reasonable for the Pat to offer Flowers a Gilmore-level contract ($13.0M AAV), if it's back-loaded to keep Flowers' 2019 cap hit around $5.5M-$6.0M? A Gilmore-level contract would put Flowers' AAV just outside the top-10 for 4-3 DEs.

Ultimately, it's Flowers' decision, but I'm not at all certain that the gap between what Flowers may be offered elsewhere and what the Pats may be reasonably able to afford is quite as large as most people seems to assume that it will be.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

There's one other wild-*** consideration.

How many offenses that the Pats are likely to be playing over the next few seasons will be transitioning to a mobile-QB/RPO/run-heavy base?

The Bills, Ravens and Chiefs already seem to be there, and the Pats will likely have all three of them on their 2019 schedule. That's four games, 25%, in which they'll need to defend that type of offense. A QB change may be coming for the 'Fins, too (potentially another two games in 2019). Who knows what other AFC teams may be joining them? Could the Pats end up needing to defend against that type of offense in half (or more) of their regular-season games by 2020?

As more teams have dumped their 3-4 defenses for a 4-3 style, competent 4-3 DEs (and DTs) have been in increasingly high demand recently, thus making them more difficult/expensive to acquire and retain. But 3-4 personnel may be more plentiful now, and somewhat less expensive. Many people seem to believe that 3-4 type schemes are inherently better for run-stopping and edge contain. What if BB intends to respond to thi possible trend in NFL offenses by transitioning back to something closer to a classic 3-4? What if he already started down that path, personnel-wise in 2017? If that's the case, how much future value would Flowers have for the Pats? Can he play something like the McGinest "elephant" role in a 3-4?

I'm not predicting this will happen, I'm just asking the questions.

Click to expand...

I would not consider Flowers to be in the same class as the "upper market" DEs. These contracts go to the players with the big sack numbers. Flowers fits better in the Cam Hayward/Akiem Hicks tier, where the numbers range from $10 - $12 million annually.

IIRC, Flowers has seen more time at DT than OLB, so I would view him as more of a 3-4 DE than a 3 - 4 OLB. I would view it as moot, as I see the nickel as the base defense for the forseeable future. This is not the first time that we have seen a temporary rise in mobile QBs. It never lasts.

PScottman said:

More teams have gone to a hybrid of 3 or 4 DL, 2 or 3 LBs, and the rest DBs of some typology. Just because the TV broadcast still lists the 'starting lineup' in traditional alignments doesn't mean that's the reality especially with base offensive alignment now with either 3 WRs or "light" TEs like Kelce that are better defended with a DB than a LB.

It's interesting that the media broadcasts haven't caught up to this fact to actually depict what is happening on the field.

Actually it's not that surprising given how much they distort the product.

Click to expand...

I agree. Even the Pats Warren-Wilfork-Seymour 3-4 frequently morphed into 40-fronts in more ways than merely having McGinest in a 3-point stance on the LoS situationally.

But I'm not going by simplistic TV broadcaster/media "analysis".

I'm talking about teams that I've delved into that have changed DCs from a guy with a long history of using mostly 30-front schemes to a guy with a history of preferring 40-fronts, AND that shed "3-4 appropriate" player personnel who had done well for them, and replaced them more traditional 40-front type players. Plus, I've tried to follow how those teams are now using their retained front-7 players, as well as their new ones, in terms of where they line up, snap counts, production, etc. And, of course, actually watching them when I feel up to it.

While very few (if any) defenses are using "pure" 3-4 or 4-3 schemes, many DCs continue to exhibit fairly clear preferences in terms of player personnel which has an effect on supply-and-demand, and salaries, ultimately.

In My Opinion, the biggest set back was losing draft picks because of Deflategate. That really set the Pats back. Kraft should have fought for those draft picks back. $1,000,000 and Brady out for 4 games was enough.

stinkypete said:

This is not the first time that we have seen a temporary rise in mobile QBs. It never lasts.

Click to expand...

I would disagree. These are not "running" QBs these are mobile QBs (as you state). VERY different because they start from the pocket in a more traditional mode but are able to escape the pocket and still throw accurately.

I agree running QBs don't last because they, like running backs, take a pounding. The new crop is more Elway or Moon than Vick or V. Young. Their first read, even second or third is from the pocket, but under pressure they can get outside and will throw first rather than take off as the play breaks down.

They've had better coaching at the college level in that way where historically they'd be told to use their superior athleticism to just take off and outrun the competition.

stinkypete said:

I would not consider Flowers to be in the same class as the "upper market" DEs. These contracts go to the players with the big sack numbers. Flowers fits better in the Cam Hayward/Akiem Hicks tier, where the numbers range from $10 - $12 million annually.

IIRC, Flowers has seen more time at DT than OLB, so I would view him as more of a 3-4 DE than a 3 - 4 OLB. I would view it as moot, as I see the nickel as the base defense for the forseeable future. This is not the first time that we have seen a temporary rise in mobile QBs. It never lasts.

Click to expand...

"It never lasts", until it does.

I agree, that Flowers doesn't line up in a 2-point stance off the LoS or drop back into coverage as often as Nink did (especially in Nink's first couple-three years as a "starter"). But I think Flowers does more interior stunting from the edge than lining up at "DT" - at least this season. Last season was a different story, mostly due to lack of viable interior DL personnel, I think.

I don't know that Flowers' lack of gaudy sack numbers will necessarily depress his contract offer range by much though. He gets a lot of pressures in the Pats scheme, and protects the edge well against the run, get a lot of tackles. It's possible that a different team would use him in a simpler role in hopes of him converting more of those pressures into sacks for them.

Hicks (6045/325) and Heyward (6045/295) are guys who I view as pretty close to being prototypical "3-4 DE" types, though Hicks is heavy enough to play DT or even NT, too. Flowers, at 6020/2670, seems more 4-3 DE to me.

-----
BTW - Kamalu (6051/300), Guy (6041/305), and Butler (6037/300) also seem pretty close to 3-4 DE types.

DarrylS said:

McCourty may restructure, but any talk of letting him go leaves a bitter taste... he plays a "Harrison Type Role" in the locker room and is considered an extremely positive influence on this team...

Click to expand...

do you mean take a pay cut? Do you mean that he should sign a new 1 year contract moving money to incentives?

I think that McCourty will extend and guarantee his current 2019 compensation.

mgteich said:

so, we can't draft and have had the best franchise and record in the NFL without good draft picks?

Click to expand...

I love the mentality that because we win a lot that every aspect of everything we do is great. Now I know there are a lot of homers on this board but there is now way you can tell me the last few years of drafting have been anything close to good. Counting out this draft class we have had two studs since 2014 in Trey Flowers and Shaq Mason. James White and Joe Thuney are solid players in their roles but other than that we ended up with a ton of underachievers and flat out busts. Brady and Belichick (coaching-wise) cover up for a ton of bad drafts and free agents. Now before any homers heads start to spin, Belichick had an amazing run as a GM for much longer than this bad stretch and this class could turn out to be pretty good but he really needs to nail this offseason.

Brewskies said:

In My Opinion, the biggest set back was losing draft picks because of Deflategate. That really set the Pats back. Kraft should have fought for those draft picks back. $1,000,000 and Brady out for 4 games was enough.

Click to expand...

There's nothing Kraft could have done. He could -- and should -- have acted with a lot more indignation and saber-rattling and less Goodell azz-kissing, but in the end there was nothing he could have done.

maineman209 said:

There certainly are some dazzlingly large numbers at the top of that list.

However, unless and until we dissect each of those teams' rosters, in-house FA situations, team needs, etc. - to the level of detail that Miguel does with the Pats' roster and cap - then we don't really know which teams will actually be in the market for Flowers' services or how much they might be willing to offer, or even if Flowers fits their defensive scheme.

The other thing is that "market rate" is still relatively undefined for 2019. Is it the $17.1M Franchise Tag that Ansah and Lawrence were paid this season? Is it Chandler Jones' $16.5M AAV, Ingram's $16.0M, or the $15.0M that Calis Campbell and JPP are getting? Or is it somewhere between Cam Jordan's $11.0M and Hunter's $14.4M?

Cap space wise, would it be reasonable for the Pat to offer Flowers a Gilmore-level contract ($13.0M AAV), if it's back-loaded to keep Flowers' 2019 cap hit around $5.5M-$6.0M? A Gilmore-level contract would put Flowers' AAV just outside the top-10 for 4-3 DEs.

Ultimately, it's Flowers' decision, but I'm not at all certain that the gap between what Flowers may be offered elsewhere and what the Pats may be reasonably able to afford is quite as large as most people seems to assume that it will be.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

There's one other wild-*** consideration.

How many offenses that the Pats are likely to be playing over the next few seasons will be transitioning to a mobile-QB/RPO/run-heavy base?

The Bills, Ravens and Chiefs already seem to be there, and the Pats will likely have all three of them on their 2019 schedule. That's four games, 25%, in which they'll need to defend that type of offense. A QB change may be coming for the 'Fins, too (potentially another two games in 2019). Who knows what other AFC teams may be joining them? Could the Pats end up needing to defend against that type of offense in half (or more) of their regular-season games by 2020?

As more teams have dumped their 3-4 defenses for a 4-3 style, competent 4-3 DEs (and DTs) have been in increasingly high demand recently, thus making them more difficult/expensive to acquire and retain. But 3-4 personnel may be more plentiful now, and somewhat less expensive. Many people seem to believe that 3-4 type schemes are inherently better for run-stopping and edge contain. What if BB intends to respond to thi possible trend in NFL offenses by transitioning back to something closer to a classic 3-4? What if he already started down that path, personnel-wise in 2017? If that's the case, how much future value would Flowers have for the Pats? Can he play something like the McGinest "elephant" role in a 3-4?

I'm not predicting this will happen, I'm just asking the questions.

Click to expand...

excellent point made on mobile QBs. the league trend will only go up from here and the Pats struggle defending that type of offense. They need to infuse a lot of speed on the defensive side of the ball but i am not sure BB is willing to do that.

Boston Boxer said:

excellent point made on mobile QBs. the league trend will only go up from here and the Pats struggle defending that type of offense. They need to infuse a lot of speed on the defensive side of the ball but i am not sure BB is willing to do that.

Click to expand...

Not necessarily just speed alone. A more effective, 2-gapping three man rush that can choke off running lanes between the tackles and allow 3 LBs and a coverage safety to run more freely behind the line and containing the edges.

QuantumMechanic said:

There's nothing Kraft could have done. He could -- and should -- have acted with a lot more indignation and saber-rattling and less Goodell azz-kissing, but in the end there was nothing he could have done.

Click to expand...

The NFL is basically a partnership of 32 CEO-types, and there aren't many real grown-ups in that group, wealthy or not. In fact, many of them act like spoiled little sh its - frat boys with eff-you money. And the vast majority of them support Goodell. He's one of their kind, after all.

So, Kraft needs to picks his battles carefully.

Agree that losing the 1st & 4th in Deflate Gate is a reason that the Pats have gone from Top Dog to Major Contendah.

there can be no discussion if you think that White is just a "solid player".

Analyses of drafting by those NOT posting here do NOT agree with your analysis. We pick at the end of every draft. Belichick does just fine. Expecting a stud a year when picking in the 30's is simply unrealistic. Thuney was a fine pick. The idea is to get player capable of holding their own on a championship team after year of development.

The goal is 2 players a year who are capable of starting in their second year. You ignore players like Michel and Wynn (and Bentley). All are starter quality.
===========
IMHO, Belichick finds it difficult to find value from 30-100 (1st 3 rounds) at WR and CB. It takes time to fit in to our system. These positions are best filled (by us) by late flyers, UDFA's, free agents and trades.
======
So, it is a matter of perspective. For Belichick, there is a role for the draft in the acquisition process. It is but one way of securing players. He makes mistakes. He has wins. Curiously, if Belichick were to do worse, we might agains get to pick up high and get players like McGinist, Seymour and Wilfork.
======

203Pat said:

I love the mentality that because we win a lot that every aspect of everything we do is great. Now I know there are a lot of homers on this board but there is now way you can tell me the last few years of drafting have been anything close to good. Counting out this draft class we have had two studs since 2014 in Trey Flowers and Shaq Mason. James White and Joe Thuney are solid players in their roles but other than that we ended up with a ton of underachievers and flat out busts. Brady and Belichick (coaching-wise) cover up for a ton of bad drafts and free agents. Now before any homers heads start to spin, Belichick had an amazing run as a GM for much longer than this bad stretch and this class could turn out to be pretty good but he really needs to nail this offseason.

Click to expand...

The team can pay Flowers pretty much whatever AAV they want. The contract can easily be structured to say a cap of $10M for 2019.

The open question is how much Belichick is willing to spend on a top DE is a defense where
the position is less valuable for the patriots than elsewhere.

maineman209 said:

There certainly are some dazzlingly large numbers at the top of that list.

However, unless and until we dissect each of those teams' rosters, in-house FA situations, team needs, etc. - to the level of detail that Miguel does with the Pats' roster and cap - then we don't really know which teams will actually be in the market for Flowers' services or how much they might be willing to offer, or even if Flowers fits their defensive scheme.

The other thing is that "market rate" is still relatively undefined for 2019. Is it the $17.1M Franchise Tag that Ansah and Lawrence were paid this season? Is it Chandler Jones' $16.5M AAV, Ingram's $16.0M, or the $15.0M that Calis Campbell and JPP are getting? Or is it somewhere between Cam Jordan's $11.0M and Hunter's $14.4M?

Cap space wise, would it be reasonable for the Pat to offer Flowers a Gilmore-level contract ($13.0M AAV), if it's back-loaded to keep Flowers' 2019 cap hit around $5.5M-$6.0M? A Gilmore-level contract would put Flowers' AAV just outside the top-10 for 4-3 DEs.

Ultimately, it's Flowers' decision, but I'm not at all certain that the gap between what Flowers may be offered elsewhere and what the Pats may be reasonably able to afford is quite as large as most people seems to assume that it will be.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

There's one other wild-*** consideration.

How many offenses that the Pats are likely to be playing over the next few seasons will be transitioning to a mobile-QB/RPO/run-heavy base?

The Bills, Ravens and Chiefs already seem to be there, and the Pats will likely have all three of them on their 2019 schedule. That's four games, 25%, in which they'll need to defend that type of offense. A QB change may be coming for the 'Fins, too (potentially another two games in 2019). Who knows what other AFC teams may be joining them? Could the Pats end up needing to defend against that type of offense in half (or more) of their regular-season games by 2020?

As more teams have dumped their 3-4 defenses for a 4-3 style, competent 4-3 DEs (and DTs) have been in increasingly high demand recently, thus making them more difficult/expensive to acquire and retain. But 3-4 personnel may be more plentiful now, and somewhat less expensive. Many people seem to believe that 3-4 type schemes are inherently better for run-stopping and edge contain. What if BB intends to respond to thi possible trend in NFL offenses by transitioning back to something closer to a classic 3-4? What if he already started down that path, personnel-wise in 2017? If that's the case, how much future value would Flowers have for the Pats? Can he play something like the McGinest "elephant" role in a 3-4?

I'm not predicting this will happen, I'm just asking the questions.

Click to expand...

203Pat said:

I love the mentality that because we win a lot that every aspect of everything we do is great. Now I know there are a lot of homers on this board but there is now way you can tell me the last few years of drafting have been anything close to good. Counting out this draft class we have had two studs since 2014 in Trey Flowers and Shaq Mason. James White and Joe Thuney are solid players in their roles but other than that we ended up with a ton of underachievers and flat out busts. Brady and Belichick (coaching-wise) cover up for a ton of bad drafts and free agents. Now before any homers heads start to spin, Belichick had an amazing run as a GM for much longer than this bad stretch and this class could turn out to be pretty good but he really needs to nail this offseason.

Click to expand...

David Andrews?
Malcolm Brown?
Malcom Butler?
JC Jackson?
Jonathan Jones?
Sony Michel?
Trey Flowers?
Adam Butler?

Even Stork did well until he got his head banged up. Cardona and Garrapolo filled needs on the team very well.

Deatrich Wise hasn't sucked.

And don't begin to discount the 2018 draft class. Michel is a very very good runner. Wynn was going to win LT before he got hurt. Don't know about Dawson yet, of course, but Bentley looked pretty good, and Jackson is a steal. I wouldn't even count out Crossen yet. If Christian Sam can become anything good, that's a helluva draft class.

Sure, you can go and pull the "Richard Sherman" or "Tyreek Hill" cards - there are some big hits in the later rounds. But drafting at the bottom every year, having picks stolen, having to try to hold FA's after they've performed on the big stage (SB teams have their FA values increased), I think they've done pretty well.

Easley was a gamble, and not a good one, IMO. Tuitt was on the board...aargghhhhh.

Jordan Richards busted.

Cyrus Jones melted.

So they've made a few mistakes, which is pretty much standard fare in NFL drafting.

Boston Boxer said:

They need to infuse a lot of speed on the defensive side of the ball

Click to expand...

Kind of broad generalization. They don't need just speed - they need five-tool players at each level: strength, speed, technique, quickness, and smarts. It's not speed alone that has contributed to their poor run defense this year. Those types are very hard to find even in high drafting positions.