So Which Pieces on Offense/Defense Are a Part of the Future?

mgteich said:

I expect that we'll pay a bit more for the players you want signed, but I agree with the choices from our 2018 roster. Obviously, Belichick will get free agent upgrades where he can.

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By my count, the two lists represent 60 players signed/re-signed. There are about another 10 special-teamers that I've yet to list. That leaves about 20 roster spots open for draftees, UDFAs and NFL free agents for the 90-man off-season roster, which seems like a fairly typical number for the beginning of March.

maineman209 said:

Seau - ancient, turned 41
Springs - turned 35
Thomas - turned 33 (and a serious problem child)
Green - turned 31

Watson wasn't offered a new contract by the Pats (after six years in NE). He was the only guy among those you listed who played another NFL snap after being let go by the Pats.

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Hence why letting them go was necessary.

Nikolai said:

Hence why letting them go was necessary.

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Also why the 2019 situation isn't quite comparable.

maineman209 said:

I hear this repeated a lot. On the other hand ...

Edelman: 2016 ... 2018

Catch% .. 61.6% ... 68.5%
YPC ........ 11.3 ....... 11.3
Rec/gm .. 6.1 ......... 6.3
Yds/gm .. 69.1 ....... 71.1
TDs .......... 3 ............ 4

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8 drops this year v. 5 for the entire 2016 season.

maineman209 said:

By my count, the two lists represent 60 players signed/re-signed. There are about another 10 special-teamers that I've yet to list. That leaves about 20 roster spots open for draftees, UDFAs and NFL free agents for the 90-man off-season roster, which seems like a fairly typical number for the beginning of March.

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I think we’ll see more of an overhaul next year than we might think.

Jackson is the truth

You are probably right about Edelman. He isn't playing all that well, but probably well enough to stay as long as Brady if he wants. His stats are Ok, but he no longer can be counted on for the tough yards across the middle. But that's OK. he's still valuable as one of our WR's.

maineman209 said:

I deliberately phrased projected/desired re-signings as "offers", and at the low end of realistic expectation (many people appear to have the high end well-covered).

Edelman and Gronk both retiring would almost necessitate the re-signing of Hogan.

I'm not sure about Edelman retiring, though. His per-game production has been equal or superior to what he posted during his 2016 season. My gut feeling is that, if Brady plays in 2019, Edelman does, too. Gronk seems a different story, though.

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TomPatriot said:

I think we’ll see more of an overhaul next year than we might think.

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Posters always want overhauls when we aren't the clear #1 team in the NFL, or when (and if) we fail to win the Super Bowl.

Regarding Edelman’s drops. He’s always been slightly higher than most, but absurdly consistent year to year. Per PFF:-

2018 - 7 drops on 91 targets (10%)
2016 - 12 drops on 146 targets (10.9%)
2015 - 7 drops on 85 targets (10.3%)
2014 - 11 drops on 124 targets (10.7%)
2013 - 13 drops on 146 targets (11%)

Edelman’s drop rate of 10% for this season currently places him at tied 35th in the league (when searched against all skill post players) and 23rd in the league when against just WRs.

Drop rate for team WRs year to date?

Gordon 11.1%
Edelman 10%
Dorsett 6.9%
Patterson 4.8%
Hogan 3.3%

Out of interest, Dola’s drop rate this year is currently 3.7%. His drop rates for the 5 years he was in NE were (from 2017 going backwards) 6.2%, 0%, 3%, 10%, 12.9%.

TheRainMaker said:

If the Pats season ends badly and they have another passive off season, does Brady even want to come back next year?

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If BB commits to getting talent around him.

TomPatriot said:

I think we’ll see more of an overhaul next year than we might think.

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I think there will be at least one overhaul on the D-line. Clayborne needs to be cut, Wise Jr. needs to go to a rotational role and I see Flowers walking. I see at least 2-3 new starters on the D-line.

On offense, the WR's needs youth, size and speed. Edelman needs help so he can take on teams #3 CB.

I don't know why people are so against an overhaul. We need to upgrade at a ton of spots. We need to get younger and faster. We can do that with a good draft and a few moves in free agency. I think getting Wynn back will help the offensive line depth, get Berrios back to learn the slot role(maybe a long shot but so was JE), and Bentley back to inject some youth and athleticism into the LB core is a good start. We just need to hit on some draft picks. No more guys in the second that would've gone undrafted or luxury picks (like a first round RB), we need to fill some holes.

mgteich said:

Posters always want overhauls when we aren't the clear #1 team in the NFL, or when (and if) we fail to win the Super Bowl.

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“Posters?” Hmmm.

The Pats had a partial overhaul in 2012. They got a lot younger. You can bet that is happening - and maybe more - in 2019.

203Pat said:

I don't know why people are so against an overhaul.

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Because they would be admitting the team isn't good enough.

I should have said "some posters" or "many posters"

We aren't an old team.

And we get "overhauls" every year. We have as much turnover as most top teams.

We do need an influx of talent in the Defensive Front Six. That should be this year's focus.

TomPatriot said:

“Posters?” Hmmm.

The Pats had a partial overhaul in 2012. They got a lot younger. You can bet that is happening - and maybe more - in 2019.

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TEN DEFENSIVE LINEMEN
DE: Flowers/fa, Clayborne/fa, Wise, Rivers/Davis, draftee
DT: Brown/fa, Butler, Guy, draftee
Developmental DL: draftee

I expect Clayborne to stay into camp.
I expect 2 of our top 6 draftees to be defensive linemen, plus one LB.

TomPatriot said:

8 drops this year v. 5 for the entire 2016 season.

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And, in spite of the higher drop rate this year, his catch rate is still higher than in 2016 ... 6.9 points higher, and closer to his catch rates in 2015, 2014 and 2013.

Even wiping out Edelman's drops in 2016, but NOT his drops in 2018, his 2018 catch rate is still higher.

TomPatriot said:

“Posters?” Hmmm.

The Pats had a partial overhaul in 2012. They got a lot younger. You can bet that is happening - and maybe more - in 2019.

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What was the "overhaul" in 2012?

Aside from adding HT and Jones, it was a few seriously old dudes who effectively retired, with their replacements already on the team from 2011 (mostly). Plus the typical roster-end churn.

There was probably more turnover in terms of key players from 2016 to 2017, and from 2017 to 2018.

IMO thought this years draft picks of Wynn and Michel were initial steps for LOB (life after Brady) and by developing a good run game it would take some pressure off of whoever the heir apparent was for #12... but then injuries set that plan back a bit.

I do not expect #12 to retire after this year, what I do expect is more youth and speed on the defensive front and more talent on Offense..

mgteich said:

TEN DEFENSIVE LINEMEN
DE: Flowers/fa, Clayborne/fa, Wise, Rivers/Davis, draftee
DT: Brown/fa, Butler, Guy, draftee
Developmental DL: draftee

I expect Clayborne to stay into camp.
I expect 2 of our top 6 draftees to be defensive linemen, plus one LB.

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I expect them to cut him prior to FA, save the money, and use it on someone who is worth a damn. They will already be cutting things close. Guys like Clayborn should be the first to go in order to free up money.