TNF: Chiefs LOSE LOL

TommyD4207 said:

Flacco wouldn't be back by then? Even Captain Checkdown should shred that defense.

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Flacco lost his job.

AndyJohnson said:

I don’t think the patriots lose the common games tiebreaker to the chargers. Each have 1 common game loss.

ESPN is goofed up because as of today the chargers have played 1 more common game.

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Yeah I see what you are refering to. LAC won against TEN and Bills, but they lost once against the Chiefs. I can imagine (dont know for sure) that a common game does not count, if one team played a common opponent twice, the other only once. (Same as the head-to-head doesnt count, if there is a third team involved you didnt play against.) So cross out Bills and Chiefs and the only common game you have is TEN.
I wouldnt bet on the ESPN machine being wrong though.

I’m almost certain that playing a team twice does not eliminate it as a common game or as a conference game with respect to tiebreakers. That’s why all the tiebreakers specifically talk about winning percentage in conference games, common games, etc. rather than record.

I’m pretty sure what the common games tiebreaker really means is “games with common TEAMS, and each team in the tiebreaker has played a total of at least 4 games against those common teams that all the teams in the tiebreaker have played.”

Similarly, if you play a team twice they count twice in determining your SoS and will count twice in determining your SoV if you beat them twice.

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

I will spell it out for you: They absolutely won't win in San Diego, because San Diego does not have an NFL team.

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Heh. Well they certainly won't beat the Chargers this season in Los Angeles either.

Chargers are 1-1 against KC and have beaten TEN, BUF, and PIT, so 4-1.

NE beat KC and BUF and lost to TEN so are currently 2-1. So depending on how the “if the season ended now” calculators are written, NE either loses that tiebreaker or it doesn’t apply.

Of course, right now NE loses to LAC on conf record (Well, and actual record )

If NE wins out it will beat PIT and BUF and should also be 4–1 in those common games. And for NE to tie LAC the Chargers must lose one more conf game than NE, so they would tie on conf record. So I guess SoV will come into play if NE and LAC tie.

makes all the sense in the world

patsfan7983 said:

Yeah I see what you are refering to. LAC won against TEN and Bills, but they lost once against the Chiefs. I can imagine (dont know for sure) that a common game does not count, if one team played a common opponent twice, the other only once. (Same as the head-to-head doesnt count, if there is a third team involved you didnt play against.) So cross out Bills and Chiefs and the only common game you have is TEN.
I wouldnt bet on the ESPN machine being wrong though.

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You should only have to count up the losses because the # of games had to end up the same. If it’s a non-division opponent they can only each play them once and they wil each have one game vs the others division opponent in common balancing the 2 meetings vs 1 effect.

QuantumMechanic said:

Chargers are 1-1 against KC and have beaten TEN, BUF, and PIT, so 4-1.

NE beat KC and BUF and lost to TEN so are currently 2-1. So depending on how the “if the season ended now” calculators are written, NE either loses that tiebreaker or it doesn’t apply.

Of course, right now NE loses to LAC on conf record (Well, and actual record )

If NE wins out it will beat PIT and BUF and should also be 4–1 in those common games. And for NE to tie LAC the Chargers must lose one more conf game than NE, so they would tie on conf record. So I guess SoV will come into play if NE and LAC tie.

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There won’t be this tie scenario (3 way with be hit and la) unless it’s at 12-4 so that tie breaker has to be a push.
Chargers 4th loss will also even up the conference record.

Next would be strength of victory and I believe we have the edge.

One last thing about common games -- googling around I see some assertions that what the "4" refers to is the number of common opponents, not common games. No idea idea if that's true or not but wanted to pass it along. I tend to believe it is not true.

QuantumMechanic said:

One last thing about common games -- googling around I see some assertions that what the "4" refers to is the number of common opponents, not common games. No idea idea if that's true or not but wanted to pass it along. I tend to believe it is not true.

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I believe opponent=game. Meaning the bills are out opponent twice.

Common games according to sbnation (fwiw )is overall games, not opponents:

1. Best win percentage in common games. Example: The Falcons and Buccaneers play 12 games against 10 common opponents. Whoever has the best record in that stretch would win the tiebreaker.

The NFL’s 12-step guide to playoff tiebreakers

So how would common games work in a 3 way tiebreaker? In our scenario would it get tossed out since you need a min of 4? The only common games between ne/sd/hou is buffalo and titans which would be 3 games for ne/hou and 2 for sd (not enough). In that case wouldn’t it go to strength of victory where im pretty certain we have both of them?

PATSYLICIOUS said:

So how would common games work in a 3 way tiebreaker? In our scenario would it get tossed out since you need a min of 4? The only common games between ne/sd/hou is buffalo and titans which would be 3 games for ne/hou and 2 for sd (not enough). In that case wouldn’t it go to strength of victory where im pretty certain we have both of them?

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Since it would be less than 4 that tiebreaker is thrown out and you go to SOV, yes. I don't know what the current SOV numbers are for the teams.

Just calculated the win totals for the teams each have beaten. My #’s may be off since i had 2 toddlers screaming in my ear, but we are ahead at the moment if i counted right. Not sure if espn’s calculator is so advanced to get up to date SOV through week 17 assuming the scenarios discussed for these 3 to get to 12-4 with sd winning the west + the expected victories in the other games... maybe it is and the texans/chargers’ defeated opponents are favored to win that much more than ours over the last 3 weeks? Not motivated nearly enough to do THAT calculation now.

Chargers 59 w (Including Thursday, will go up depending on the teams they beat that win tomorrow/today).
Texans 61 w (65 if they win today, Plus the teams they beat that win tomorrow/today )
Patriots 62 w (69 if we win tomorrow, plus the teams we beat that win tomorrow/today )

One thing i do know is we should include packers, vikings, bears in our teams of interest to root for since those are most exclusive to our wins.

Guys, I'm out. Thats waaay too complicated for my small european football mindset...

AndyJohnson said:

Flacco lost his job.

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Let's just say the Ravens somehow ended up winning the North and has to play KC in their building. I don't see how Harbaugh doesn't go back to Flacco in that scenario!

I have felt all along we will get the 1 seed if we win out and still do. I think kC loses at Seattle and LAC lose to Denver. KC wins the division and we get the 1 seed.

Haterproof said:

Let's just say the Ravens somehow ended up winning the North and has to play KC in their building. I don't see how Harbaugh doesn't go back to Flacco in that scenario!

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You think that if benching Flacco leads to them winning the north they will turn around and play him again? Why?

PATSYLICIOUS said:

My #’s may be off since i had 2 toddlers screaming in my ear...

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Eagle and Fouts are working the Jets/Texans game?