Chargers' 2 point conversion call

Pat the Pats Fan · Dec 14, 2018

Old saying, play for tie at home, for win on the road

maust · Dec 14, 2018

Pat the Pats Fan said:
Old saying, play for tie at home, for win on the road

Older saying: Success has many fathers, failure is an orphan.
This is the 22nd post to this thread but if that conversion failed it would be what, maybe the 222nd?

slam · Dec 14, 2018

Nehalem said:
Looking it up I found

Long term average 2pt conversion rate: 48.2%
XP percentage after moving back to 15: 94-95%

So,
Go for 2= 48.2% chance of winning
Go for 1+OT = 94-95% * 50% = 47-47.5% chance of winning

So for a generic team it is slightly better odds to go for 2. But basically a wash.

I would think the real advantage of going for 2 is you avoid the risk of injury and potentially being more tired for your next game.

That assumes that the two point conversion is the last play of the game. If there's as little as, I don't know, 16 seconds left then going for it and succeeding will give the other team incentive to go for it. If you miss the conversion, then you have to try the onside.

fxmallon · Dec 14, 2018

You can't control that coin toss. But you can control a 2 point attempt. But I think the biggest reason here was that if it's good, LA has a fighting chance at the division. If they miss, well... not much to lose since the 5th seed seems inevitable, anyhow. I thought they might gamble on the road given this not-much-to-lose attitude (in the same way underdog college teams do this in Bowl games)

BobDigital · Dec 14, 2018

I thought it was the 100% right call. KC has a much better offense than defense. If you are to decide the game I think you are better off doing it with their D on the field than risking putting their offense back on it.

SD had been moving down the field mostly at will for a large part of the game and particularly in the 4th. Given the situation i think making any other call would have been gutless and fear based.

BobDigital · Dec 14, 2018

Nehalem said:
Looking it up I found

Long term average 2pt conversion rate: 48.2%
XP percentage after moving back to 15: 94-95%

So,
Go for 2= 48.2% chance of winning
Go for 1+OT = 94-95% * 50% = 47-47.5% chance of winning

So for a generic team it is slightly better odds to go for 2. But basically a wash.

I would think the real advantage of going for 2 is you avoid the risk of injury and potentially being more tired for your next game.

Not to mention OT opens up the chance of a tie. A tie doesn't help. You need the win to have any kind of chance of getting the bye and you don't fear the loss.

brdmaverick · Dec 14, 2018

My apologies if this was already brought up, but I actually did think the Chargers would entertain going for two...…….BUT NOT WHEN THEY DID.

They should have gone for two on their SECOND-TO-LAST TD.

After all, you are down by 14, get the TD, go for 2.

1.) If you get it, wonderful, then on the final TD you kick the extra point for the win.

2.) If you DON'T get it, then you have to go for two on the final TD just to tie.

So the only way you really lose out is if you miss both two pointers (which would be only a 25% chance if we assume 50% success rate on 2 point tries).

brdmaverick · Dec 14, 2018

Lavictoire said:
Amazing they overcame all the flags.

To be fair the Chargers also received some generous calls, like the pass interference in the end zone that setup the final touchdown. I'm glad they called it, but man that was a tough call.

TinhWoodhead · Dec 14, 2018

it was the LA special

QuantumMechanic · Dec 14, 2018

brdmaverick said:
My apologies if this was already brought up, but I actually did think the Chargers would entertain going for two...…….BUT NOT WHEN THEY DID.

They should have gone for two on their SECOND-TO-LAST TD.

After all, you are down by 14, get the TD, go for 2.

1.) If you get it, wonderful, then on the final TD you kick the extra point for the win.

2.) If you DON'T get it, then you have to go for two on the final TD just to tie.

So the only way you really lose out is if you miss both two pointers (which would be only a 25% chance if we assume 50% success rate on 2 point tries).

Yup. Coaches CONSTANTLY overlook the value of knowing earlier whether or not they’ll need the two on a final score.

It’s just another case of confusing postponing the time of certain loss with maximizing the chance of winning. They aren’t the same.

Lavictoire · Dec 15, 2018

brdmaverick said:
To be fair the Chargers also received some generous calls, like the pass interference in the end zone that setup the final touchdown. I'm glad they called it, but man that was a tough call.

I looked at it as a make up call.

PatsWickedPissah · Dec 15, 2018

chris_in_sunnyvale said:
Agreed. BB made a good call with the odds in his favor, but sometimes the odds don't pay off in your favor. In 100 alternate realities, that play works more than it fails. Unfortunately in the lone reality that counts, it failed.

Regards,
Chris

I'm working on a way to transit to Hugh Everett alternate quantum realities

chris_in_sunnyvale · Dec 15, 2018

PatsWickedPissah said:
I'm working on a way to transit to Hugh Everett alternate quantum realities

I've got bad news for you: In the other 99 alternate realities, Pats lose SB51.

Regards,
Chris

Chargers' 2 point conversion call

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In the Starting Line-Up

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