Free Agent Targets 2019

luuked said:

That I can understand and would not argue with.

It is just that you said "his actions" made you think about it being the last year (if we win). Because -- and I am not trying to be confrontational -- I have not seen any action that would point to it. But maybe I just missed it.

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Yeah the "actions" part really meant nothing. It was more just a general statement that I take what athletes say with a grain of salt.

Boomer B said:

It’s going to be an interesting offseason. Here’s some of my thoughts

Devon McCourty - $13.4m cap hit next year. No way the Pats take that hit. Either a restructure or cut. $3.9m dead cap hit. My feeling is he’ll restructure. No team going to pay him the big $ at his age.

Gronk - $12m cap hit. This is a tough one. Does he retire? Is he traded? Restructured? My feeling is he retires. It’s not the years, it’s the mileage.

D. Allen - $7.4m cap hit. He’s gone.

D. Hightower - $10.3m cap hit. $5m dead cap. Maybe a restructure. They won’t bite the dead cap hit.

M. Cannon - $7.5m cap hit. Possible restructure.

A. Clayborn - $6m cap hit. Restructured or cut

The Draft

Pats need to find their QB of the future in the next few drafts. If they don’t like one this year I can see Bill trading a 1st and 2nd this year trying to build draft capital for next year. If we have multiple 1sts and 2nds in the 2020 draft we could move up to get our QB of the future

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This team has 20 free agents next year. If you trade a 1st and 2nd pick into
2020, how do you propose filling these spots? The available cap space will
be around 25-30 million dollars to re-sign or replace T. Brown, Flowers,
McCourty, Gostkowski, R. Allen, M. Brown, Shelton, Hogan, Dorsett,
Patterson, plus 10 others.
My hope is they restructure as you mention above to increase the cap space and re-sign as many of their top free agents as possible. Then, take their compensatory
picks to trade up in rounds 1 thru 3 to obtain the best available players.

For me, the initial keys to the off-season are to re-sign or tender Brown, Flowers, Jason McCourty and J Jones. This should be doable.

Then the team will have its normal turnover or upgrade issues at DT and LB. We should recall that Bentley and Sam are coming back, and Hightower is under contract (even if he is a declining star).

Boomer B said:

It’s going to be an interesting offseason. Here’s some of my thoughts

Devon McCourty - $13.4m cap hit next year. No way the Pats take that hit. Either a restructure or cut. $3.9m dead cap hit. My feeling is he’ll restructure. No team going to pay him the big $ at his age.

Gronk - $12m cap hit. This is a tough one. Does he retire? Is he traded? Restructured? My feeling is he retires. It’s not the years, it’s the mileage.

D. Allen - $7.4m cap hit. He’s gone.

D. Hightower - $10.3m cap hit. $5m dead cap. Maybe a restructure. They won’t bite the dead cap hit.

M. Cannon - $7.5m cap hit. Possible restructure.

A. Clayborn - $6m cap hit. Restructured or cut

The Draft

Pats need to find their QB of the future in the next few drafts. If they don’t like one this year I can see Bill trading a 1st and 2nd this year trying to build draft capital for next year. If we have multiple 1sts and 2nds in the 2020 draft we could move up to get our QB of the future

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Unless he takes one hell of a pay cut, Clayborn is probably long gone.

Well it all depends on success rate in 2019 draft. If Patriots fail again, Dynasty v 2.0 will end sooner than later. I just hope we won't see any "trade down 20 spots" shenanigans since they didn't work that well last couple of times.

Jimke said:

This team has 20 free agents next year. If you trade a 1st and 2nd pick into
2020, how do you propose filling these spots? The available cap space will
be around 25-30 million dollars to re-sign or replace T. Brown, Flowers,
McCourty, Gostkowski, R. Allen, M. Brown, Shelton, Hogan, Dorsett,
Patterson, plus 10 others.
My hope is they restructure as you mention above to increase the cap space and re-sign as many of their top free agents as possible. Then, take their compensatory
picks to trade up in rounds 1 thru 3 to obtain the best available players.

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I hear ya. I think it will come down to the QB class in the next few drafts. If there’s a prospect Bill likes (like Jimmy G) who he figures he can get late 1st or 2nd then he will have the picks to address other areas.

If he sees the QB of the future in the early to mid 1st round he will need draft capital to move up. In my opinion the most important thing for this franchise is to find Brady’s successor in the next 2 drafts. We don’t want to become one of those teams continually searching for a QB.

Like others have said, the run of the 2010’s players this team built around will be coming to an end within the next few years. All the key players (Brady, Gronk, Edelman, McCourty, Chung, Hightower) are far into the back 9. We need to find the QB of the future and nail the drafts like we did between 2009 - 2013 to set up the next winning decade.

I’d like Jackson on this Defense, but obviously not at that price.

Jaguars' Malik Jackson Expects To Be Released

Clayborne is contracted of $3.5M plus bonuses. Perhaps we can get a better starting DE for that, or not. We'll see

supafly said:

Unless he takes one hell of a pay cut, Clayborn is probably long gone.

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mgteich said:

Clayborne is contracted of $3.5M plus bonuses. Perhaps we can get a better starting DE for that, or not. We'll see

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Perhaps we can go up to Foxborough High and sign someone to replace him for a motorized scooter, the new Meek Mill download on iTunes, and a copy of Fortnite.

mgteich said:

Clayborne is contracted of $3.5M plus bonuses. Perhaps we can get a better starting DE for that, or not. We'll see

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At this point, the "starting" DL appears to be evolving toward Flowers-Brown-Guy, in terms of snap counts. Butler has been used situationally for 25%-50% of the D-snaps.

Clayborn, Simon, and Wise have generally been rotating through, with each getting 30%-40% of the D-snaps (who gets the most has varied from game-to-game). Of those three, Clayborn has still been the most productive in terms of overall pressures.

The Pats save $4M in salary and roster bonuses, and put $2M into dead money by shedding Clayborn next season. But it makes no difference, cap-wise, if he goes in March or in cutdowns at the end of Camp, so the Pats may well keep him until they see what they have in whatever new guys they acquire (and how Wise and Davis may have developed).

Wise will be in his 3rd year in 2019, and has made improvements this season. Davis will be in his 2nd year (effectively, if not technically).

Thought I’d bump this up...

Is there any guys you would love to see here which are a realistic target for us?

JayNM said:

I didn't say that his contract could be reworked because I have the feeling he won't accept. Again, this is a bold hot take, so I completely understand u not agreeing.

The thing about McCourty is that I don't see him being irrepleaceble. Actually I think that Harmon can do his job serviceably for a lot less.

HT is a more obvious case... to me it's clear that he isn't at the same level of previous years, but at the same time I think he knows this and will be more open for a restructure.

I think Gronk comes back next year and then retires.

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Not a big McCourty fan but even less of a Harmon fan. Don't give up on HT yet.

maineman209 said:

At this point, the "starting" DL appears to be evolving toward Flowers-Brown-Guy, in terms of snap counts. Butler has been used situationally for 25%-50% of the D-snaps.

Clayborn, Simon, and Wise have generally been rotating through, with each getting 30%-40% of the D-snaps (who gets the most has varied from game-to-game). Of those three, Clayborn has still been the most productive in terms of overall pressures.

The Pats save $4M in salary and roster bonuses, and put $2M into dead money by shedding Clayborn next season. But it makes no difference, cap-wise, if he goes in March or in cutdowns at the end of Camp, so the Pats may well keep him until they see what they have in whatever new guys they acquire (and how Wise and Davis may have developed).

Wise will be in his 3rd year in 2019, and has made improvements this season. Davis will be in his 2nd year (effectively, if not technically).

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Spend money on Flowers. He is a difference maker even if he is not flashy. Clayborn is effectively gone now. Wise did improve but he's no Flowers. Davis probably gone, don't know about Rivers. Simon has been playing a lot but needs an upgrade.

JayNM said:

I mean, I 100% think this is logical. But we disagree fundamentally in 2 points:

1 - I think you (and others) are misreading the value of Gronk's contract. First, it's only 12M this year with incentives, which probably wont be met- At this year's pace he will only meet the playing time incentive. (Agent: Gronk can earn $4.3M in incentives in '18) - So his contract, this year, is 9.1 M (most likely)

Now consider the TE's market. At 9,1, he would be the 4th highest TE. Considering that This was the first year where players surpassed him (at least in base), it logical to assume that the market will keep on rising, since it's been re-set. (Jimmy Graham is the highest paid TE... and he is not hallmark player)

So, do I think Gronk's production is easily and cheapily repleaceble from whoever i might get, in this inflationated market? The answer to me is no. Even if he is slower for good (and missing time this season too), Gronk still has the 9th most yards and how he is still a tremendous blocker (much better than Allen, IMO, who is held in high regards here). Plus, he is treath to every DC's head in the league, opening pieces all around and, finally, knowing the playbook, something that we know it is not easy (And TEs have the hardest responsabilites, at least i remember reading this somewhere)

2 - I am being bold (AKA stupid) for D. McCourty

Yeah, that's just it. I simply have a feeling that he will get traded, because his production (not skillset) can be replaced cheaply

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Agree with the Gronk info.

Jimke said:

This team has 20 free agents next year. If you trade a 1st and 2nd pick into
2020, how do you propose filling these spots? The available cap space will
be around 25-30 million dollars to re-sign or replace T. Brown, Flowers,
McCourty, Gostkowski, R. Allen, M. Brown, Shelton, Hogan, Dorsett,
Patterson, plus 10 others.
My hope is they restructure as you mention above to increase the cap space and re-sign as many of their top free agents as possible. Then, take their compensatory
picks to trade up in rounds 1 thru 3 to obtain the best available players.

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They have 22 or 21 free agents (depends on Gordon's situation).

According to Miguel they have 18.1M, that's enough to pay all FA's market offers except Hogan, Shelton, Rowe, Trent Brown (yes they can pay them and not orhers, but i rather pay Dorsett and Patterson instead of Hogan).

Dwayne Allen and Clayborn are easy cuts, Gronk is gone too.

They can extend Brady /restr or extend DMac /ask for paycuts from Cannon/HT. If they accept thatthey could afford Brown(possible) or others, but i rather move Wynn there. You don't use your first pick on a backup OL.

If this happens they will be without their:

#2 WR - Hogan
LT Brown (Wynn was a smart pick and they will not spend a premium pick again)
#1 and #2 TE Gronk and Allen - Deep draft class Fant, Irv ... and a late pick should solve this ''problem'' for many years to come
JAG ED Clayborn
Rowe will not be missed and they don't need another CB.

DT is our #1 need, so they will probably use one of our first 3 picks and that will be an upgrade over Shelton.

IMO they should trade down this year #1 for a #2 and #4 this year plus a #2 next year (if there is an offer).

I would not draft a QB if they believe Brady can play 3 more years. You waste 3 years of a cheap weapon. I think they should use this pick on a player that can help NOW.

#1 DT
# 2.a TE
#2.b LB
#3.a S
#3.b ED
#3.c WR
#4 - #7 BPA

TBR said:

If they win the Super Bowl - maybe Gronk will retire. Perhaps Brady, but less likely IMO.

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I'm okay with both of those if they can win the Super Bowl.

p8ryts said:

Spend money on Flowers. He is a difference maker even if he is not flashy. Clayborn is effectively gone now. Wise did improve but he's no Flowers. Davis probably gone, don't know about Rivers. Simon has been playing a lot but needs an upgrade.

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I agree about Flowers and that Clayborn has been worth the (net) $4M he'll cost to retain in 2019.

For the other four, they're already familiar with the scheme and the system, and cheap enough to keep on the 90-man off-season roster until (hopefully) the Pats have someone superior under contract. It makes no difference cap-wise if they're cut in March or at the end of 2019 Camp.

Wise was a fairly effective rotational player this season. Can't really tell if he's hit his ceiling or not, but he's cheap for the next two seasons (barely hits the cap).

Davis hadn't even practiced with the team until the beginning of 2018 OTAs. He was signed as NFI in 2017 and effectively went straight to IR, so 2018 was truly his rookie season (after a year of not playing at all. Under the circumstances, I thought he was okay and could still develop. Again - cheap for the next two seasons. His salary won't even count in the top-51 for off-season cap calculations. So, no point in shedding him until there's someone better to replace him.

Simon is a cheap vet. He hasn't contributed much, statistically, but he's been pretty good at setting the edge and sufficiently disruptive as a 33% rotational player to enable others to make plays on occasion. Might be worth keeping over the summer on a veteran minimum contract (which also wouldn't be enough to register in top-51 cap calculations).

Rivers is and unknown, aside from the fact that BB apparently still likes his development potetnial. Who knows what role he may end up playing - DE or even OLB? Again, cheap for a couple more years (barely hits the cap).

Simon, Rivers and Davis are inexpensive camp competitors. Wise is an OK inexpensive rotational player, as are Butler and Kamalu. Clayborne is likely gone, unless hidden injuries are the reason for his ineffectiveness.

We need to choose a veteran DT in free agency. This could Brown or Shelton, but perhaps not. Clearly we need a DT or 2 in the draft.

At LB, we will have Hightower, Van Noy, Roberts, Bentley and Sam (another in expensive camp body). A LB or 2 in the draft seems likely.

FREE AGENCY
We need a DE or 2 (hopefully Flowers), a DT or 2 (perhaps Brown or Shelton) and perhaps a LB. I see this as normal needs, upgrades and turnover. For me, needing 5 defensive players is not a reason to panic as we enter an off-season, especially when we have 6 top draft picks.

maineman209 said:

I agree about Flowers and that Clayborn has been worth the (net) $4M he'll cost to retain in 2019.

For the other four, they're already familiar with the scheme and the system, and cheap enough to keep on the 90-man off-season roster until (hopefully) the Pats have someone superior under contract. It makes no difference cap-wise if they're cut in March or at the end of 2019 Camp.

Wise was a fairly effective rotational player this season. Can't really tell if he's hit his ceiling or not, but he's cheap for the next two seasons (barely hits the cap).

Davis hadn't even practiced with the team until the beginning of 2018 OTAs. He was signed as NFI in 2017 and effectively went straight to IR, so 2018 was truly his rookie season (after a year of not playing at all. Under the circumstances, I thought he was okay and could still develop. Again - cheap for the next two seasons. His salary won't even count in the top-51 for off-season cap calculations. So, no point in shedding him until there's someone better to replace him.

Simon is a cheap vet. He hasn't contributed much, statistically, but he's been pretty good at setting the edge and sufficiently disruptive as a 33% rotational player to enable others to make plays on occasion. Might be worth keeping over the summer on a veteran minimum contract (which also wouldn't be enough to register in top-51 cap calculations).

Rivers is and unknown, aside from the fact that BB apparently still likes his development potetnial. Who knows what role he may end up playing - DE or even OLB? Again, cheap for a couple more years (barely hits the cap).

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mgteich said:

For me, the initial keys to the off-season are to re-sign or tender Brown, Gilmore, Jason McCourty and J Jones. This should be doable.

Then the team will have its normal turnover or upgrade issues at DT and LB. We should recall that Bentley and Sam are coming back, and Hightower is under contract (even if he is a declining star).

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HUH??? Gilmore isn't a free agent.

By my count on OTC, the Pats have 43 people under contract for next year with 25M in Cap Space. Miguel has us at about $18M in cap space..

Sorry, I mean Flowers. I will fix

DaBruinz said:

HUH??? Gilmore isn't a free agent.

By my count on OTC, the Pats have 43 people under contract for next year with 25M in Cap Space. Miguel has us at about $18M in cap space..

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