Thoughts on Sony Michel

primetime · Dec 10, 2018

There's no evidence he has chronic knee issues outside of an unsourced statement by failure and hack Michael Lombardi.

holyredeemer · Dec 10, 2018

PittPatriot said:
There was that awesome long run yesterday that would have "iced the game"....but Develin held.
In general, we are average to below average running the ball. If the other team even thinks we are running, we get held to under 3 yards. If they don't, we may be 4-5 yards.

He’s had a bunch of plays get called back if I remember correctly.

holyredeemer · Dec 10, 2018

If Michel can stay healthy, he’s going to be a star. OL needs to be more consistent with second level blocks, and hopefully Wynn is the real deal. But Michel if healthy is the least of my worries.

QuantumMechanic · Dec 10, 2018

cupofjoe1962 said:
Yeah let’s not count Chubb’s 90 yard touchdown & he is still averaging far more yards per carry than Michel.

YPC is not nearly the be-all, end-all stat you're trying to make it out to be. The actual yardage distribution matters a lot more than the arithmetic mean.

To take a silly extreme, a RB who always gets a constant 2.6 yards every time he carries the ball is the most valuable player in the league since you can run 4 times to move the chains over and over and over again and score on every drive. By contrast, a RB who gets 30yd every sixth time he carries and gets stuffed for a 2yd loss the other five times averages almost a full yard more per carry than the first guy, but isn't remotely as valuable as the first guy.

NG Pats Fan · Dec 10, 2018

Chubb looks much more athletic and faster.

Hope we’re not looking at another Carlos Dunlap/Jermaine Cunningham situation

Ras-IR Dowling · Dec 10, 2018

NG Pats Fan said:
Chubb looks much more athletic and faster.

Hope we’re not looking at another Carlos Dunlap/Jermaine Cunningham situation

Except Michel has already shown more in a handful of games than cunningham did his entire career. Maybe they’re both good rbs.

Ochmed Jones · Dec 10, 2018

Michael is a playmaker especially in space.

However he does not really do well between the tackles.

holyredeemer · Dec 10, 2018

scott99 said:
Do me a favor, watch his college videos. Tell me you don't see anything special and he doesn't make people miss. It's obvious he's not as healthy as he was his last year of college. He's got excellent shiftyness, good speed, and he was plenty special in college. You can tell the difference between college and his 1st year in the NFL, and that difference is ONE thing, health. And yet, he's still 4th in rushing for rookies despite missing 3 1/2 games.

Go back and watch that Jet's game. You can tell he was getting healthy. Some of the shiftyness and speed, and power was coming back. He hasn't had success against 2 very good defensive lines the last 2 games. But three 100 yard games in 9 full games is pretty damned good for a rookie. Had 98 in another.

You guys are acting like he's a bust for Christ's sake. And you're acting like he can't become better than what he's shown. He's gonna finish with at least 800 yards as a rookie, when's the last Pat's rookie to do that ? Here's a hint, It was 21 seasons ago.

Scott. GTFO with this nonsense! 21 years ago? Come on Son!!! (Runs to google Robert Edwards) OMG....I’m getting really old.

Angelpats · Dec 10, 2018

RayClay said:
Where should we use Develin? Maybe we need Bolden back?

Develin is being used well. I wonder why they haven’t used him much in short yardage before. As for bolden, people might not like this, but I think he offers more than Burkhead. Great special teams player and can give our other backs a reliable break.

captain stone · Dec 10, 2018

Ras-IR Dowling said:
Don’t quote me on this but I’m pretty sure McCoy didn’t have 4 TDs vultured by a fullback.

Are you really convinced that Michel would've scored on each and every one of those TD runs? I'm not.

Ras-IR Dowling · Dec 10, 2018

captain stone said:
Are you really convinced that Michel would've scored on each and every one of those TD runs? I'm not.

Me neither. I give him 2 more scores 50%. Thats fair.

cupofjoe1962 · Dec 10, 2018

QuantumMechanic said:
YPC is not nearly the be-all, end-all stat you're trying to make it out to be. The actual yardage distribution matters a lot more than the arithmetic mean.

To take a silly extreme, a RB who always gets a constant 2.6 yards every time he carries the ball is the most valuable player in the league since you can run 4 times to move the chains over and over and over again and score on every drive. By contrast, a RB who gets 30yd every sixth time he carries and gets stuffed for a 2yd loss the other five times averages almost a full yard more per carry than the first guy, but isn't remotely as valuable as the first guy.

So let me get this straight.
A guy who gets 2.6 yards per carry consistently Is more valuable than a guy who gets 5.3 yards average per carry?

Is a guy who gets 5 touchdowns more valuable than a guy with 10 touchdowns too?

I assume you are saying Michel get’s more consistent yards.

Then why does he struggle getting 3rd or 4th down and 1 yard, if he is so consistent ?

They have gone to Develin in recent weeks to get the tough 1 yard at the goal line, because Michel has struggled in that situation.

cupofjoe1962 · Dec 10, 2018

Ochmed Jones said:
Michael is a playmaker especially in space.

However he does not really do well between the tackles.

Who is Michael?

Flash · Dec 10, 2018

He's not worthy of a first round pick as of right now, and I'd love to be proven wrong. Nick Chubb was available without any of the injury concerns Michel has and so far has been more productive than Michel. Phillip Lindsay went undrafted and is already over 1000 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs.

Which is a part of the reason why I am against drafting RBs in the first round. There will always be good RBs in later rounds, why bother wasting a first round pick on RB especially in the current NFL in which passing is king? Unless the RB is a generational talent (ex. Barkley, Fournette, Gurley, etc.) who is a consensus early first round pick, teams should never waste first round picks on RBs. Michel is not a generational talent and should not have been drafted this early, especially with all the injury issues he had in college.

WaterfallJumper · Dec 10, 2018

cupofjoe1962 said:
So let me get this straight.
A guy who gets 2.6 yards per carry consistently Is more valuable than a guy who gets 5.3 yards average per carry?

Is a guy who gets 5 touchdowns more valuable than a guy with 10 touchdowns too?

I assume you are saying Michel get’s more consistent yards.

Then why does he struggle getting 3rd or 4th down and 1 yard, if he is so consistent ?

They have gone to Develin in recent weeks to get the tough 1 yard at the goal line, because Michel has struggled in that situation.

I don't mean to be rude, but do you know anything about statistics? Looking at the arithmetic mean is a poor way to analyze numbers when you're concerned about the success of the individual plays, not the big picture aggregate. Michel has a more even distribution (and a higher success rate in terms of actual vs expected yards given down and distance, etc) than Chubb.

He's not struggling to get first downs, either. I already posted that he is tied for 12th in the league in overall first downs (and up there for first down percentage). He's performing like a starting RB, and fairly comfortably in the top 12 - 15 in most metrics per game. He's not a superstar, but the offense performs better when he's getting touches.

I like both players. Of course we'd prefer that our guy gets more TDs. But you're relying on a few stuffs to make up your mind, when the numbers actually show the opposite.

WaterfallJumper · Dec 10, 2018

Flash said:
He's not worthy of a first round pick as of right now, and I'd love to be proven wrong. Nick Chubb was available without any of the injury concerns Michel has and so far has been more productive than Michel. Phillip Lindsay went undrafted and is already over 1000 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs.

Which is a part of the reason why I am against drafting RBs in the first round. There will always be good RBs in later rounds, why bother wasting a first round pick on RB especially in the current NFL in which passing is king? Unless the RB is a generational talent (ex. Barkley, Fournette, Gurley, etc.) who is a consensus early first round pick, teams should never waste first round picks on RBs. Michel is not a generational talent and should not have been drafted this early, especially with all the injury issues he had in college.

Chubb had a major knee injury in college, and hasn't looked the same since. He was otherworldly prior to his injury. Now he's merely very good -- but before the injury he was neck and neck with Barkley and Fournette as a prospect.

As for finding an UDFA -- the Broncos did it, but who else found a starting level RB this year? Of course we can always find an exception (and as a general rule I prefer drafting RBs in the mid rounds). One to one comparisons just don't account for context, though.

Ochmed Jones · Dec 10, 2018

Rb’s are probably the easiest to find in the late rounds and udfa pool. Some rb’s that don’t time well will fall in the draft, but they can still run and follow blocks and pick up blitzes.

Terrell Davis, the kid we got from old miss. It’s all about scouting, heart and a little luck.

Triumph · Dec 10, 2018

Here is why the Pats lost yesterday.

4th&4 at Mia 4
(0:21) New England Patriots timeout.

3rd&6 at Mia 6
(1:05) Sony Michel rush to the right for 2 yards to the Mia4. Tackled by Kiko Alonso.

2nd&6 at Mia 6
(1:46) Sony Michel rush to the left for no gain to the Mia6. Tackled by Raekwon McMillan.

2nd&6 at Mia 6
(1:47) Miami Dolphins timeout.

1st&7 at Mia 7
(1:50) James White rush up the middle for 1 yard to the Mia6. Tackled by Akeem Spence.

2nd&10 at Mia 48
(1:56) Penalty: Pass Interference on Miami (Minkah Fitzpatrick) 41 yards.

2nd&10 at Mia 48
(1:57) Miami Dolphins timeout.

1st&10 at Mia 48
(2:00) James White rush up the middle for no gain to the Mia48. Tackled by Kiko Alonso.

White 2 rushes for 1 yard
Sony 2 rushes for 2 yards.

4 rushes for 3 yards when you need to ice the game.

cupofjoe1962 · Dec 10, 2018

reamer said:
I don't mean to be rude, but do you know anything about statistics? Looking at the arithmetic mean is a poor way to analyze numbers when you're concerned about the success of the individual plays, not the big picture aggregate. Michel has a more even distribution (and a higher success rate in terms of actual vs expected yards given down and distance, etc) than Chubb.

He's not struggling to get first downs, either. I already posted that he is tied for 12th in the league in overall first downs (and up there for first down percentage). He's performing like a starting RB, and fairly comfortably in the top 12 - 15 in most metrics per game. He's not a superstar, but the offense performs better when he's getting touches.

I like both players. Of course we'd prefer that our guy gets more TDs. But you're relying on a few stuffs to make up your mind, when the numbers actually show the opposite.

I don’t mean to be rude either....

Sorry but I put 5.3 yards per carry with 10 total touchdowns vs 4.3 yards per carry with 5 total touchdowns more important than who has more first downs.

Do they give points for first downs or touchdowns?

*** Here is a stat for you.... *****

Chubb is averaging 4.5 yards per carry after contact which is #1 in the NFL.

Here is another one you may like....,

Saquan Barkley & Nick Chubb are Pro Football Focus’s 3rd and 5th highest rated rookie running backs since 2006.

Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb off to impressive starts in the NFL | NFL Analysis | Pro Football Focus

I have yet to see a pro football focus article on which player lead the league on the most first downs on 2nd and two from midfield.

Triumph · Dec 10, 2018

Sony is a low voltage rusher.

Not much power inside and not a tackle breaker.

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