Sony Michel Injury (update: Expected to Play Week 10 vs Titans)

The Brandon Five said:

I did. Still didn't get it. I agree with running behind Develin to gain yards, but in terms of avoiding IR, umm, not so much.

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Hill ended up on IR because he got out in front of Develin's block and, in Develin's tussle with the defender, he fell and rolled up on the back of Hill's leg, taking out Hill's ACL in the process.

Ergo, "always run behind Develin".

maineman209 said:

Prior to Monday night, Barner had 16 carries for 63 yards for the Pats in 3 games (just 32 total snaps). That's 3.94 ypa - more than adequate for a backup. And I still maintain that concluding that Barner is "behind Patterson" in the RB hierarchy, based on Patterson's one-off game as the "lead RB" against Buffalo, is a bit of a reach.

Again, since Michel at least participated in Saturday's practice on a "limited" basis, until I hear otherwise, I'm guessing that further RB depth might be needed for only another game or two.

I'm also sufficiently confident in the Pats pro-personnel scouting to guess that, IF there was an RB available ...
-- whose potential to contribute immediately (coming into the Pats system "cold") was certain to be superior to that of Barner (with five weeks of practice with the Pats)
-- AND who would be willing to sign with the Pats for what might turn out to be only a week or two of work
... then the Pats would probably already have him on the roster.

My guess is still that, if Michel isn't likely to play against the Packers, and that RB depth is a "concern", the most likely possibility is that the Pats promote Farrow (and his experience in the system) into the roster spot vacated by Rowe.

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I think Michel intends to play. The question is how effective he will be. Took him a couple of games last time.

Mack Herron said:

I think Michel intends to play. The question is how effective he will be. Took him a couple of games last time.

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Not being critical, just curious ... what specifically leads you to believe that Michel "intends to play" Sunday? I mean, besides that fact that any player worth a damn always intends to play.

maineman209 said:

Not being critical, just curious ... what specifically leads you to believe that Michel "intends to play" Sunday? I mean, besides that fact that any player worth a damn always intends to play.

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I think the team expects him to play, but of course it is a guess. I base that on (1) reports that there is no serious injury, (2) his return to practice last week, and (3) the team not activating Farrow last week.

I think they do not have a credible ground game with White, Patterson and Barner (why is he on the roster if he is isn't going to play when they are down to White as the only other RB?). And I don't think they can beat GB with the "RBs" they put out there Monday. They could have activated Farrow last game but they did not, though they surely knew Rowe to IR was a likelihood so there would be no risk of exposing anyone. It is entirely speculative, but this scenario suggests Michel returns Sunday. I still think he remains limited this week and questionable just to keep us guessing.

maineman209 said:

Hill ended up on IR because he got out in front of Develin's block and, in Develin's tussle with the defender, he fell and rolled up on the back of Hill's leg, taking out Hill's ACL in the process.

Ergo, "always run behind Develin".

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Ok, I win the "stupid poster of the week" award.

The Brandon Five said:

Ok, I win the "stupid poster of the week" award.

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Nah. Sometimes, trying to follow the running gags on this forum is like trying to make sense of Abbott & Costello's "Who's on first?" routine with six commercials after each line.

Mack Herron said:

I think the team expects him to play, but of course it is a guess. I base that on (1) reports that there is no serious injury, (2) his return to practice last week, and (3) the team not activating Farrow last week.

I think they do not have a credible ground game with White, Patterson and Barner (why is he on the roster if he is isn't going to play when they are down to White as the only other RB?). And I don't think they can beat GB with the "RBs" they put out there Monday. They could have activated Farrow last game but they did not, though they surely knew Rowe to IR was a likelihood so there would be no risk of exposing anyone. It is entirely speculative, but this scenario suggests Michel returns Sunday. I still think he remains limited this week and questionable just to keep us guessing.

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I think that the trade deadline happening a mere 16 hours after they got back to Foxboro from the game in Buffalo may have had something to do with not promoting Farrow. For instance, Rowe might've been a part of some "Plan B" trade thing. Shipping Rowe elsewhere would've saved cap space (maybe $500k or so), whereas putting him on IR saves nothing (probably). In order to promote Farrow, they would've had to put Rowe on IR first.

While it's true that players on IR are now "tradeable", a guy who's "dinged up" but NOT on IR would still have more value.

The ground game in Buffalo went nowhere, regardless who the Pats put out there, and I think McD and Co. were anticipating that, so they chose to experiment with Patterson out of the backfield for a number of different reasons. Seriously, watching how well the Bills closed down running lanes, even a fully healthy Michel would've had a tough go.

The Packers' run-D isn't anywhere near as stout as the Bills' is. If they're planning to focus on Brady and the Pats passing attack, running the ball, even with Barner, could be much easier.

In any case, with Rowe's spot now open, promoting Farrow seems likely, although the transaction doesn't need to happen until Sunday. I think it's likely that Michel sits another game, that Barner is the "lead back" this Sunday, and that the Pats ground game "muddles through" with 100 yds or so - just enough to "keep the Packers' defense honest". We'll see how that goes.

EDIT:

BTW - Farrow himself mentioned (on video) last week what a thrill it was to be taking handoffs from Brady. If Farrow was working with Brady and the 1st-team offense, rather than with Hoyer as part of the scout team offense against the 1st team defense, that would seem to indicate that the Pats were already prepping him for a promotion at that point.

maineman209 said:

I think that the trade deadline happening a mere 16 hours after they got back to Foxboro from the game in Buffalo may have had something to do with not promoting Farrow. For instance, Rowe might've been a part of some "Plan B" trade thing. Shipping Rowe elsewhere would've saved cap space (maybe $500k or so), whereas putting him on IR saves nothing (probably). In order to promote Farrow, they would've had to put Rowe on IR first.

While it's true that players on IR are now "tradeable", a guy who's "dinged up" but NOT on IR would still have more value.

The ground game in Buffalo went nowhere, regardless who the Pats put out there, and I think McD and Co. were anticipating that, so they chose to experiment with Patterson out of the backfield for a number of different reasons. Seriously, watching how well the Bills closed down running lanes, even a fully healthy Michel would've had a tough go.

The Packers' run-D isn't anywhere near as stout as the Bills' is. If they're planning to focus on Brady and the Pats passing attack, running the ball, even with Barner, could be much easier.

In any case, with Rowe's spot now open, promoting Farrow seems likely, although the transaction doesn't need to happen until Sunday. I think it's likely that Michel sits another game, that Barner is the "lead back" this Sunday, and that the Pats ground game "muddles through" with 100 yds or so - just enough to "keep the Packers' defense honest". We'll see how that goes.

EDIT:

BTW - Farrow himself mentioned (on video) last week what a thrill it was to be taking handoffs from Brady. If Farrow was working with Brady and the 1st-team offense, rather than with Hoyer as part of the scout team offense against the 1st team defense, that would seem to indicate that the Pats were already prepping him for a promotion at that point.

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I would like to see Farrow but my bet is that Rowe's spot had Dawson's name on it. I haven't seen anything to make me think Barner will be the lead back even with a lesser defense. I remain optimistic about Sony at least until the inactives come out Sunday night.

Sony & I are working hard to get him back on the field

Mack Herron said:

I would like to see Farrow but my bet is that Rowe's spot had Dawson's name on it. I haven't seen anything to make me think Barner will be the lead back even with a lesser defense. I remain optimistic about Sony at least until the inactives come out Sunday night.

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I'd say that, ultimately, Dawson takes Rowe's spot. While Dawson is eligible to be activated at any time now, the Pats aren't required to activate him until Nov. 13th, after the Titans game. In the mean time, they can promote Farrow for a week or two to provide RB depth, and then send him back to the PS when they need to activate Dawson.

Mack Herron said:

I would like to see Farrow but my bet is that Rowe's spot had Dawson's name on it. I haven't seen anything to make me think Barner will be the lead back even with a lesser defense. I remain optimistic about Sony at least until the inactives come out Sunday night.

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I still think it would be dangerous to play Sony coming off that injury. When last we saw Sony he was wincing in pain: surprised we didn't pull the trigger for a RB. Barner does not excite me and neither our Coaching Staff obviously if they played Patterson over him at RB.

Okay, this is pretty funny ...

Here Was Patriots’ Simple Strategy Behind Cordarrelle Patterson’s Position Change

maineman209 said:

Not being critical, just curious ... what specifically leads you to believe that Michel "intends to play" Sunday? I mean, besides that fact that any player worth a damn always intends to play.

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Rumor is most people don't show up to practice intending not to play.

fnordcircle said:

Rumor is most people don't show up to practice intending not to play.

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Counterpoint: Chase Daniel

fnordcircle said:

Rumor is most people don't show up to practice intending not to play.

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Butler tried that.

After missing the past two games with a knee injury, Patriots’ RB Sony Michel is likely to return Sunday vs. Titans, per source. Just needs a good week of practice with no setbacks, but on track.

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SammyBlueCat said:

Sony & I are working hard to get him back on the field

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Well, Sony was reportedly already up to game-time decision status on Sunday night, so good job!!

Deus Irae said:

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Good. They badly need him back. Hopefully that will also help allow Gronk to sit another game and through the bye to rest that ankle.

As crazy as it sounds, I think right now Sony Michel coming back is more important to this offense than Gronk. We have seen Gronk struggle all year, but what sony brought with the running game really opened up our offense.

Also this Team have proven that they can win without Gronk. I said this before and will say it again Edelman is way more important to this Offense than Gronk. Take Edelman out of the picture and this Offense just struggles. That said having James White who reminds me of Troy Brown is another very important asset a bonafide Seven catch a game guy. Edelman - White and Gordon more than compensates for Gronk. Having Gronk is now gravy we are not handcuffed without him. Like you said having a Big Back like Sony is actually more important especially n the RZ.