Week 7: We’re on to Chicago

UptownPatsFan said:

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In Fangio's 3-4, pressure can come from almost anywhere, and he uses his LBs a lot, both inside and outside. Sony Michel might not see a lot of snaps this game.

BTW ... Isn't Duke Dawson eligible to begin practicing on a roster exemption this week (today)?

robertweathers said:

@SammyBlueCat is uniquely qualified to make an assessment on this player's abilities.

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I don't even need to say it

Has no effect on Sunday’s game, but FWIW....

Slightly OT:

SVN said:

Welcome back!

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I never left

Year to date stats for QB hits allowed. Chicago is doing a very good job of protecting their QB. I don't expect a huge pass rush day, but I would anticipate some coverage disguises like we saw against Mahomes, particularly since their offenses share similarities.

reamer said:

Year to date stats for QB hits allowed. Chicago is doing a very good job of protecting their QB. I don't expect a huge pass rush day, but I would anticipate some coverage disguises like we saw against Mahomes, particularly since their offenses share similarities.

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Poor Watson, he will not finish the season taking 10 plus hits a game!

UptownPatsFan said:

Slightly OT:

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Everyone hates the monster but yet they want to stare at it.

Like expected Mack is day to day. Probably will play but ankle inj. will have some affect.

The other thing about Mack before the injury was conditioning in re. to big workload (70-100% snaps) . he disappeared in second half vs GB and also in MIA before inj. (heat being additional factor).

Hicks also wants to play every down (70-90% for big DT is quite a workload) which tends to make him fade when game matters most. He was slow to get up at one point in MIA as well.

It will be interesting how both CHI and NE go about it..

UptownPatsFan said:

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That’s simply noting that the Patriots offense looked a lot better against the Colts and Chiefs than against the Jags and Lions.

You can argue that the offense has performed a lot better in weeks four to six or you can argue that the defenses in Miami, Indy, and KC aren’t that good. A bit of each but using stats that include Gordon and Edelman but exclude the Jacksonville defense could be misleading.

Is the Patriots offense better with Edelman and Gordon? Yes.
Is any offense better against KC? Yes.

Football is a team game. But Chicago without Khalil Mack might be closer to that Miami Indy KC level and closer to Jacksonville with him healthy. The health of Mack could be a huge indicator for this game.

If it’s an ankle injury he could well take the entire week of practice off and be none the worse for the lost prep. Missing three practices could be meaningless. We’ll all see in the first quarter.

Akiem Hicks Fondly Recalls Patriots Tenure Despite Scolding From Bill Belichick

JMC00 said:

What a dumb take

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Here are the back up QB's we either barely beat or lost to in the BB/Brady era:

Alex Van Pelt (2001)
Danny Kannel (2003)
Tony Banks (2003)
A.J. Feeley (2004)
Joey Harrington (2006)
A.J. Feeley (2007)
Kyle Boller (2007)
Matt Flynn (2010)
Colt McCoy (2010)
Jason Campbell (2013)
Jay Cutler (2017)
Nick Foles (SB 52)

Urgent said:

That’s simply noting that the Patriots offense looked a lot better against the Colts and Chiefs than against the Jags and Lions.

You can argue that the offense has performed a lot better in weeks four to six or you can argue that the defenses in Miami, Indy, and KC aren’t that good. A bit of each but using stats that include Gordon and Edelman but exclude the Jacksonville defense could be misleading.

Is the Patriots offense better with Edelman and Gordon? Yes.
Is any offense better against KC? Yes.

Football is a team game. But Chicago without Khalil Mack might be closer to that Miami Indy KC level and closer to Jacksonville with him healthy. The health of Mack could be a huge indicator for this game.

If it’s an ankle injury he could well take the entire week of practice off and be none the worse for the lost prep. Missing three practices could be meaningless. We’ll all see in the first quarter.

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Usually I'd agree with you that context and defense matters, but there's such a clear difference now that Brady has a reliable slot receiver again. Edelman and Gordon have fundamentally altered how defenses can line up and which weapons they can try to mitigate. The offense through four games is simply not the same as the one we'll see for the rest of the season. I don't think there's a defense in the league that can hold them to under 30 points, and it's possible we'll see the 40s more often than not. Once Gordon and Michel are fully integrated, I expect to see an offensive explosion closer to 2007 than anything we've had since then.

TommyD4207 said:

You forget how good a blocker Edelman is, never mind the effect he has with the defense having to account for him.

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maineman209 said:

He's not merely "good", he's nasty and tenacious. He blocks like he thinks he's the same size as Gronk.

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turkeyneck said:

He's relentless and has a streak of Mankins in him too.

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I can agree that he's relentless, nasty, and tenacious. However going by what I remember when I've watched him pre-acl injury, he's an average blocker. Maybe the DB's are bigger than him, I don't know. Or maybe most receivers lose against DB's when it comes to blocking.

Urgent said:

That’s simply noting that the Patriots offense looked a lot better against the Colts and Chiefs than against the Jags and Lions.

You can argue that the offense has performed a lot better in weeks four to six or you can argue that the defenses in Miami, Indy, and KC aren’t that good. A bit of each but using stats that include Gordon and Edelman but exclude the Jacksonville defense could be misleading.

Is the Patriots offense better with Edelman and Gordon? Yes.
Is any offense better against KC? Yes.

Football is a team game. But Chicago without Khalil Mack might be closer to that Miami Indy KC level and closer to Jacksonville with him healthy. The health of Mack could be a huge indicator for this game.

If it’s an ankle injury he could well take the entire week of practice off and be none the worse for the lost prep. Missing three practices could be meaningless. We’ll all see in the first quarter.

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Agree.

However, the issue with the Pats offense against JAX and DET wasn't solely the quality of the pass-catchers. It was at least partly the lack of quantity of viable passing targets and experienced RBs to mix and match in the attack plan.

Against JAX, for instance, McD and Brady had:
- WR Dorsett, Hogan and Patterson
- TE Gronk and Hollister
- RB White and Burkhead (who missed the 2nd half with a concussion)
.... and Michel (in his debut game; 1 catch on 2 tgts, 7 yards)

Coleman and Barner were healthy scratches.

Against DET, McD and Brady had:
- WR Dorsett, Hogan and Patterson
- TE Gronk
- RB White and Michel (1 catch on 3 tgts, -1 yds)
.... Burkhead got in 7 snaps before his neck injury (2 catches on 3 tgts, 26 yds), and there wasn't anyone to replace him.

Hollister was out with his chest injury.
Gordon, just arrived, was out with his hammy injury.

Coleman & McCarron had been waived to the PS.
Barner had been waived, undoubtedly under the assumption that Burkhead would play the whole game.

There are five eligible pass-catchers on the field for every offensive snap. Against JAX, the offense had only 6 viable targets to work with for the whole game. Against DET it was just five. Against IND and KCY, the offense had eight viable targets available to work with.