- Joined
- Nov 30, 2008
- Messages
- 5,671
- Reaction score
- 6,095
Registered Members experience this forum ad and noise-free.
CLICK HERE to Register for a free account and login for a smoother ad-free experience. It's easy, and only takes a few moments.I love the Vikings this Sunday +2. I bet a lot on it. There's a pretty decent chance Rodgers won't play and even if he does he won't be moving around. Other than the QB, there's not one player on the Packers better than his counterpart on Green Bay. If Rodgers doesn't play, the line will swing at least 10 points with Kizer.
2-1 for me today
Won with Colts +6 and Packers +2.5, lost with Texans -3, Billy O is BRUTAL.
I’ve heard this one from you before. This is a story that stays with you.Back in my gambling days in the 1980, I had placed a fairly large wager on Dan Fouts and the Chargers vs Jim Zorn and the weak Seahawks, in the next to last game of the year. The Chargers were 11.5 point favorites, which for that day was a big spread.
Anyway, the game went as expected, with SD and “Air Coryel” taking a 21-0 lead after the first three times they got the ball. As the game went on they kept moving right through Seattle, but they kept making mistakes and didn't score another point in the half. They could have easily had two more TDs, but Seattle wasn't doing a thing. No need to worry.
Then in the second half, not much happened for either team. Later on, Seattle scored a TD, but that looked like all they would get. It was late and they still had to stop SD, which, of course they did. The next thing I know though, Seattle has the ball with only enough time for one play, and they're on the wrong side of the 50, sixty yards away from the endzone.
They won't even bother will they? They're down 14, at the end of a terrible 4-12 season and would have no reason to even try to score. For what purpose? I can't lose! Right?
Zorn drops back to pass and two Chargers are coming in untouched, straight for him. Zorn turns around and runs away as fast as he can. The clock has already gone to 0. Then Zorn starts to turn around to his right, and even though he's a left-hander, manages to toss an absolute HEAVE down the middle of the field. The ball is caught at about the 10 or 15, but who cares? The game is over and I hit it big baby!
Hey, what's that on the field? A flag. On who? Penalty on the Chargers, and under the rules, Seattle has the ball at the 10 or 15 with one more play to come. Oh oh! I don't feel so good anymore.
Zorn drops back to pass again, again with no chance of victory, and I can't help but think that he's going to screw me big time. Sure SD can stop him, but will they is the real question. Anyway, Zorn looks to his left and throws, the camera zooms to the corner and there is his target, Steve Largent, sitting on his butt in the end zone. He has fallen and is literally sitting on his ass. Woosh, like Randy Moss on his greatest day, Largent darts those hands high and boing, TD, I lose, I lose big.
I leap up from my chair in anger. I can't help but yell ****! My darling wife is sitting next to me and wants to know why I care. It isn't the Patriots. So, in an outwardly calm voice, as good as I could muster, I said that I was going for a little walk. I needed to clam down.
I had made some money before, so I considered, very briefly, of trying to catch up. Surely I could find a game that would get me back to even. Nah, the way Zorn pulled that off just made me sick, and I didn't want to ever feel that way again.
Well, that was the last bet that I ever placed on anything, except for buying squares once a year in the superbowl. Other than stopping smoking, it was the single best move that I've ever made.
I owe it all to Jim Zorn and Steve Largent. Thanks guys.
Nice score, man.Bears got it done for me.
But the real winner was I put 50 on trey burton to score the first TD at+1000 with 10 dollar savers on Howard and Robinson. Pretty much a crapshoot luck bet. Up 551 to start the week. Let’s gooo
I’ve heard this one from you before. This is a story that stays with you.
I’ve heard this one from you before. This is a story that stays with you.
Sorry about the repetition, but yes it has. It's why my 5 year run of betting stopped. I still like to keep track and talk about it though. I have some theories about betting football that are off the track. For instance, if I were to bet on the NFL I'd bet every game every week. My belief is that the lines don't come into play as much as we think. For the most part the losers are the losers and the winners are the winners, regardless of the lines.
For the first two weeks there have been 13 games where the winner covered and 13 games where the underdog won outright. There were only 6 games where the spread came into play. The three games where a team won but didn't cover, the two games that ended up tied and the one game that tied the spread.
I want to know the under dogs straight up record when they cover a 3.5 point spread or more.
Odds are if the spread is 3 or less. The dog will win if they cover
Using the spreads that I had, of the 12 games that the underdog won outright (I found a mistake I made previously and it was not 13) 5 were more than 3 pts.
TB@NO -10
KC@LC -3.5
NJ@Det -6.5
Ind@Was -6
KC@Pit -5
Crazy. I wonder what the data is on this in the last 5 years
Give me some time and I can check it out. I have this info back to 2013.
Edit: I went back and checked 2013 and there were 78 underdogs that won and 33 of them were in games over a 3 pt spread. I'll get to the rest later.