Love our draft

AndyJohnson said:

So you think that in order to have an opinion you need to think you are more knowledgeable than a genius on the topic?

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Yeah... that's what he said.

Off The Grid said:

It is possible to get every Pick right...relative to the value of the Pick.

In fact, there is no excuse for not getting every Pick right.

Whether or not the Odds pay off ~ and they're usually long ~ is beside the point.

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The fact of life is that when the odds do not pay off, though, it still goes down as a bust of a pick. You can rationalize why the gamble was made, but the results are the results, and it was not the pick that should have been made. Of course that is always with 20-20 hindsight, which so much of us seem to have. Nobody has 20-20 vision looking into the future. NE's staff is better than most. The Jets and the Browns are like those old Mr. Magoo cartoons, if you are of a certain age like I am, except with way more crashes.

AndyJohnson said:

Great question because that’s exactly the point.
I hate that move but would support it because
A) Belichick has 1000x more information than me ( or anyone else liking or disliking the move)
B) Belichick is much more capable of dissecting that information than me (or anyone else giving an amateur opinion)
C) the odds of it working out are better than I suspect if B.B. believes in it

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I don't think anyone here says they could pick better throughout an entire draft than Belichick could, but on a given pick, why not ?

If you want to play the 'more information' game, you've got to be careful about this. The Pats had a lot of information about Hernandez, including about an incident where he shot someone in the eye while at Florida. He picked they guy nonetheless. True, it was in round 4 while on talent alone Hernandez was supposed to go much earlier. Most teams had in off their board entirely.

He selected a psychopath. Does it means he will select psychopaths every draft ? Of course not. But it also says that with all the information that he could gather, he couldn't see through it all.

Belichick is also known to have bypassed intel the scouts provided him with. Even though the scouts were lukewarm about Maroney and Jackson, Belichick took them both anyways. Here again, he had access to information he decided to ignore.

So yes, Belichick is way more right than wrong. Does it means he will hit 100%, obviously not. Given that he won't hit 100%, I think it's fair to question some of his moves when he overdraft someone like Jordan Richards, for example.

RDS11 said:

I don't think anyone here says they could pick better throughout an entire draft than Belichick could, but on a given pick, why not ?

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Because it would only be luck. A dart could be right too. These are human beings and no matter how much data you have you can never be 100% but the more data you have the more right you will be.

If you want to play the 'more information' game, you've got to be careful about this. The Pats had a lot of information about Hernandez, including about an incident where he shot someone in the eye while at Florida. He picked they guy nonetheless. True, it was in round 4 while on talent alone Hernandez was supposed to go much earlier. Most teams had in off their board entirely.

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So you think that they should have known he would commit murder?
He was actually a successful pick on the field for his draft slot.

He selected a psychopath. Does it means he will select psychopaths every draft ? Of course not. But it also says that with all the information that he could gather, he couldn't see through it all.

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This makes no sense. You are citing a case where someone didn’t foresee a criminal future as the reason to say knowing nothing is better.

Belichick is also known to have bypassed intel the scouts provided him with. Even though the scouts were lukewarm about Maroney and Jackson, Belichick took them both anyways. Here again, he had access to information he decided to ignore.

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First you do not know that. And second that’s exactly the point he is the decision maker. I’m sure he made many successful picks that others didnt like.
Again it’s Bill Belichick he should believe what he sees over a scout. Scouts give opinion not orders.

So yes, Belichick is way more right than wrong. Does it means he will hit 100%, obviously not. Given that he won't hit 100%, I think it's fair to question some of his moves when he overdraft someone like Jordan Richards, for example.

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You just dont get it.

AndyJohnson said:

You just dont get it.

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Because you do ?

This seemed apropos here. As a spoiler, the Patriots are top five for value (or production) vs expected value from the draft slot. While there are some misses, they're still doing far better than most teams ever do.

RDS11 said:

Because you do ?

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Yes I certainly get the point I am making.

KontradictioN said:

Yeah... that's what he said.

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Tread lightly. You are engaging the master of assumptions, strawman arguments, and false dilemmas.

AndyJohnson said:

First you do not know that. And second that’s exactly the point he is the decision maker. I’m sure he made many successful picks that others didnt like.
Again it’s Bill Belichick he should believe what he sees over a scout. Scouts give opinion not orders.

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I might be completely wrong on this but I thought I saw Mike Reiss talk about their Scouts telling BB back away from Maroney and Jackson but McDaniels pushed him to take them.

Our picks will be

*** CAT LIKE QUICK ***

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

I have tremendous confidence in Bill Belichick & the NE scouting staff, so when I hear a NE draft pick and say "who???" I do think that I'm just not as informed.

We'd all have to admit, though, there have been some picks that at the time looked pretty nonsensical and turned out to be awful picks. For me the best example was drafting Florida linebacker Jermaine Cunningham. Having watched pretty much all the UF games that year, Carlos Dunlap was quite a stud linebacker. Cunningham was pretty much just another guy. I was like "really? really?" and it was indeed a wasted pick. But, it happens. BB must have seen a role but JC couldn't fill it.

I'd admit too that some picks I thought were a waste or a reach (Harmon, maybe even Slater, since at the time I was pulling for some now-forgotten binky) turned out fine, or even amazing.

Just saying... our draft is in pretty damn good hands. They make mistakes, even some real head-scratchers, but way less than most.

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It is also clouded because you are picking base upon projecting what the player will become. If it were about who was best in college there would be few questions. But if you look at 2 players like Dunlap and Cunningham and assess that while One was a better college player the other projects to be a better nfl player based upon differences in the game at the pro level as well as things like maturity, potential for improvement etc, it would be hard to not pick the guy you see having more potential. Not saying the assessment was right but the best drafting teams will always make that judgment a d take it into consideration.
I think Belichick weighs that heavily in the 2nd and 3rd and you end up seeing some gems and some duds probably for that reason.

AndyJohnson said:

Yes I certainly get the point I am making.

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Yeah, but what if Belichick thinks otherwise ?

TheRainMaker said:

I might be completely wrong on this but I thought I saw Mike Reiss talk about their Scouts telling BB back away from Maroney and Jackson but McDaniels pushed him to take them.

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I don’t put a lot of faith in rumor but I certainly would hope Belichick doesn’t let scouts make the final call.
I’m sure they live some of his picks and hate others but they aren’t the decision maker they are one opinion that becomes a piece of the puzzle.

RDS11 said:

Yeah, but what if Belichick thinks otherwise ?

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Let me put it this way.
Belichick likes a prospect and you don’t.
Happens 100 times.
How many of those 100 are you right?

AndyJohnson said:

Let me put it this way.
Belichick likes a prospect and you don’t.
Happens 100 times.
How many of those 100 are you right?

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I'd say pretty much 99 times. He gets lucky on occasion.

I'm just teasing you, @AndyJohnson. I'm closer to your views than I let on, although I think there's a lot of room for dissenting opinions. I always defer to Belichick. I'll also mention that just because a player doesn't pan out, doesn't mean that it was the wrong choice -- sometimes circumstances just work against you, and there's no guarantee that a different player would have had better success here. That's life.

AndyJohnson said:

Let me put it this way.
Belichick likes a prospect and you don’t.
Happens 100 times.
How many of those 100 are you right?

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100% : I use the same idea as yours, meaning I re-evaluate my pick after the fact, but instead of deferring to Belichick right after the pick as you do, I wait 5 years and then make a decision. It's much easier this way.

Obviously I'm teasing you. I don't watch the NCAA that much, I don't have draft binkies as most do. But I just find it funny that in this time of mock drafts and rumors, which are all for fun and entertainment, someone comes up with a whole thread saying this is just ridiculous, let's stop the party and wait for the pick, because Belichick always knows best.

RDS11 said:

100% : I use the same idea as yours, meaning I re-evaluate my pick after the fact, but instead of deferring to Belichick right after the pick as you do, I wait 5 years and then make a decision. It's much easier this way.

Obviously I'm teasing you. I don't watch the NCAA that much, I don't have draft binkies as most do. But I just find it funny that in this time of mock drafts and rumors, which are all for fun and entertainment, someone comes up with a whole thread saying this is just ridiculous, let's stop the party and wait for the pick, because Belichick always knows best.

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Not really what I’m saying but I do think all the nick draft stuff and overanalysis is silly.
It’s not that belichick always knows best but he is correct more than the people who disagree with him. So for someone with far less knowledge and acumen on using it to speak as if they would have made a better decision is in fact ridiculous.
This is not a don’t have an opinion attitude, it is an attitude that says the guy acting like he knows more really doesn’t and is often a blowhard, with a great analogy being the game day thread.

I’ll put it another way. If anyone comes out after the draft and says belichicks draft sucks, I would have confidence that they both know less about the players and have lesser evaluation skills so their opinion doesn’t mean a lot because they are literally saying someone smarter about the issue with more data available is wrong because they would have dint something else. I don’t know how that is even arguable.
If we were the browns or jets it would be different.

This thread has really gotten a lot of attention. Like myself, I think a lot of people misinterpreted this thread at first glance. I think the point Andy Johnson was trying to make was that BB knows what he wants and who will have the best chance to fit into his system better than anyone else. He may be right and may be wrong, but for anyone else to tell him who he should draft for his system doesn't make much sense because they really don't know what he's looking for. On the other hand, it's much easier for us to evaluate whether a player is good or not.

SammyBlueCat said:

Our picks will be

*** CAT LIKE QUICK ***

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Can we ban this guy??

AndyJohnson said:

You just dont get it.

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RDS11 said:

Because you do ?

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AndyJohnson said:

Yes I certainly get the point I am making.

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RDS11 said:

Yeah, but what if Belichick thinks otherwise ?

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For the Win, Brother!!