First of all, I don't think Solder will "walk" in the sense of signing with another team if the Pats don't offer him enough. Solder's particular situation is far from being a typical UFA scenario. With his son's ongoing cancer condition, and the deep trust relationships that the Solder family has built with the medical people and facilities in Boston who are helping them deal with that (I'm speaking from personal experience on this), I'm 99% certain that Solder re-signs with the Pats or he retires and stays in Boston for the duration.
As an aside, Solder's last contract was 2 years, $20M, $19.9M guaranteed. Not that I think Solder even cares anymore about the contract status BS, but his $11.16M 2017 cap hit made him the 5th-highest-compensated LT in the league. I'd project his next contract with the Pats (if there is one), might be 2 years, $24M-$26M with around $22M guaranteed, and a 2018 cap hit of around $10M-$11M.
Anyway, IF the Pats are going to be without Solder for 2018 (and I really,
really, don't want that to happen), I think I'd trust Fleming at LT a bit more than I would Waddle or Cannon (or any rookie). No, I'm not saying that Fleming would be even a "good" long term solution, but he
has started and played full games at LT for the Pats (more or less successfully), and seems more adaptable than Waddle. Then, too, a lot of folks were certain that Dan Connolly would be a disaster filling in for Matt Light for an extended period and he wasn't at all.
OTOH, we have no idea how far along Croston may be in his development under Scar.
WRT new contracts for Fleming and Waddle, the numbers really depend on NFL market perceptions.
In spite of his relatively successful 9 starts at RT this season (including playoffs), I think the market may perceive Fleming (6047/325) as more of a "utility OL backup" with no set position, or maybe more OG than OT. Waddle, OTOH, seems more likely to be perceived as an actual RT. Waddle is slightly more prototypical size (6060/~320), and has 28 NFL starts at that one position.
Keep in mind that "the market" includes at least a couple of teams that lack an even adequate starter (much less a good backup) at one or more OL spots, and several teams with less than adequate backups at most OL spots, there's lately been some upward pressure on all OL compensation for experienced players. So, I'd guess that Fleming might have a market value somewhere around $3.0M APY as a pure generalist backup, whereas Waddle (in spite of his health/availability issue) may be more likely to be perceived as a quality OT backup and potential "bridge starter" for a couple of teams and, thus, could see offers in the $4.0M-$4.5M APY range.
OTOH, I could be way off.
Just to be clear, I'm not saying that these contract numbers are justified by any pseudo-objective evaluation of the "talent" either Fleming or Waddle (or even Solder) bring to the table. I'm merely suggesting that this is how the NFL market may set their value - and the NFL market is NOT rational about player compensation. Full stop.
In fact, the NFL market is often loonier than than the proverbial two-peckered billy goat. On PCP. It's driven less by the principles of Supply & Demand, and more by a sick and twisted combination of quiet desperation, ego, and more money than brains. It's an amoral, tragic and denial-based three-way marriage of player "representatives", Peter Pan owners, and corporate media interests with more money than God that has been presided over by Satan himself.
So, arguing that such-and-such a player "is not worth that kind of money" is merely a vain attempt to impose rationality on a realm where the term itself has no real meaning. Continuing to try to do so will eventually leave one's forehead seriously dented and a large blood smear on the bricks.
@supafly
@Tony2046
